A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper develops a state-space approach to deep Gaussian processes for efficient state estimation.
Active learning selects inputs for GPSSM to learn latent states.
New GP model tackles physics constraints efficiently.
Generalizes bits back coding for time-series models with latent Markov structures.
Gaussian processes are used in machine learning to learn input-output mappings from observed data. Gaussian process regression is based on imposing a Gaussian process prior on the unknown regressor function and statistically conditioning it on the observed data. In system identification, Gaussian processes are used to …
Improved Gaussian Process model for predicting trajectories without independence assumption errors.
New method speeds up Gaussian process inference for large datasets.
Robust state-space radio interferometric imaging using Stochastic Approximation Expectation Maximization
The problem of combined state and input estimation of linear structural systems based on measured responses and a priori knowledge of structural model is considered. A novel methodology using Gaussian process latent force models is proposed to tackle the problem in a stochastic setting. Gaussian process latent force mo…
Banded matrices can be used as precision matrices in several models including linear state-space models, some Gaussian processes, and Gaussian Markov random fields. The aim of the paper is to make modern inference methods (such as variational inference or gradient-based sampling) available for Gaussian models with band…
A new method learns state and proposal dynamics in state-space models using neural networks.
Agents learn state ambiguity from non-linear sensor data using Gaussian approximations.
The paper is concerned with non-linear Gaussian filtering and smoothing in continuous-discrete state-space models, where the dynamic model is formulated as an Itô stochastic differential equation (SDE), and the measurements are obtained at discrete time instants. We propose novel Taylor moment expansion (TME) Gaussian …
A new framework using kernel packets overcomes limitations of state space models for multi-dimensional data.
Jump Markov linear models consists of a finite number of linear state space models and a discrete variable encoding the jumps (or switches) between the different linear models. Identifying jump Markov linear models makes for a challenging problem lacking an analytical solution. We derive a new expectation maximization …
Paper proposes a recursive GPSSM for efficient online learning.
We prove a conjecture about approximating Gaussian Processes on one dimension.
A Bayesian filtering algorithm is developed for a class of state-space systems that can be modelled via Gaussian mixtures. In general, the exact solution to this filtering problem involves an exponential growth in the number of mixture terms and this is handled here by utilising a Gaussian mixture reduction step after …
New nonlinear smoothers improve state estimation in chaotic systems.
We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the system states and the transition function. We exploit Markov structure in the true…
Gaussian processes provide a flexible framework for forecasting, removing noise, and interpreting long temporal datasets. State space modelling (Kalman filtering) enables these non-parametric models to be deployed on long datasets by reducing the complexity to linear in the number of data points. The complexity is stil…
The Gaussian process state space model (GPSSM) is a non-linear dynamical system, where unknown transition and/or measurement mappings are described by GPs. Most research in GPSSMs has focussed on the state estimation problem, i.e., computing a posterior of the latent state given the model. However, the key challenge in…
This paper introduces a linear state-space model with time-varying dynamics. The time dependency is obtained by forming the state dynamics matrix as a time-varying linear combination of a set of matrices. The time dependency of the weights in the linear combination is modelled by another linear Gaussian dynamical model…
Gaussian state space models have been used for decades as generative models of sequential data. They admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation, have a simple functional form, and enjoy widespread adoption. We introduce a unified algorithm to efficiently learn a broad class of linear and non-linear state space mod…
Study learns state representations from observations for control, proving guarantees.
Study cost-driven state representation learning for control from partial observations.
Bayesian filtering approach identifies nonlinear restoring forces in dynamic systems.
We propose a new variational inference algorithm for learning in Gaussian Process State-Space Models (GPSSMs). Our algorithm enables learning of unstable and partially observable systems, where previous algorithms fail. Our main algorithmic contribution is a novel approximate posterior that can be calculated efficientl…
We provide theoretical and empirical evidence for a type of asymmetry between causes and effects that is present when these are related via linear models contaminated with additive non-Gaussian noise. Assuming that the causes and the effects have the same distribution, we show that the distribution of the residuals of …
In this paper, we present a new statistical approach to the problem of incorporating experimental observations into a mathematical model described by linear partial differential equations (PDEs) to improve the prediction of the state of a physical system. We augment the linear PDE with a functional that accounts for th…
The Kalman filter (KF) is used in a variety of applications for computing the posterior distribution of latent states in a state space model. The model requires a linear relationship between states and observations. Extensions to the Kalman filter have been proposed that incorporate linear approximations to nonlinear m…
KalmanNet uses neural networks to improve state estimation in systems with unknown dynamics.
The Kalman filter is extensively used for state estimation for linear systems under Gaussian noise. When non-Gaussian Lévy noise is present, the conventional Kalman filter may fail to be effective due to the fact that the non-Gaussian Lévy noise may have infinite variance. A modified Kalman filter for linear systems wi…
In this paper we investigate a link between state- space models and Gaussian Processes (GP) for time series modeling and forecasting. In particular, several widely used state- space models are transformed into continuous time form and corresponding Gaussian Process kernels are derived. Experimen- tal results demonstrat…
Study non-asymptotic estimation bounds for LTI models with Gaussian noise.
A method for robust reinforcement learning in large state spaces.
A new method for estimating adversarial strategies in nonlinear systems.
Bayesian non-linear latent variable modeling for complex data.
Combines pseudo-point and state space approximations for scalable GPs.
Develops a method to model neural dynamics with flexible yet interpretable latent states.
A novel multi-resolution Gaussian process model for efficient time traversal.
State-space models are used in a wide range of time series analysis formulations. Kalman filtering and smoothing are work-horse algorithms in these settings. While classic algorithms assume Gaussian errors to simplify estimation, recent advances use a broader range of optimization formulations to allow outlier-robust e…
Simple linear models outperform complex BO methods in high dimensions.
We consider the problem of learning a Gaussian variational approximation to the posterior distribution for a high-dimensional parameter, where we impose sparsity in the precision matrix to reflect appropriate conditional independence structure in the model. Incorporating sparsity in the precision matrix allows the Gaus…
Latent force models are systems whereby there is a mechanistic model describing the dynamics of the system state, with some unknown forcing term that is approximated with a Gaussian process. If such dynamics are non-linear, it can be difficult to estimate the posterior state and forcing term jointly, particularly when …
We propose a parallelizable sparse inverse formulation Gaussian process (SpInGP) for temporal models. It uses a sparse precision GP formulation and sparse matrix routines to speed up the computations. Due to the state-space formulation used in the algorithm, the time complexity of the basic SpInGP is linear, and becaus…
We provide a comprehensive overview and tooling for GP modeling with non-Gaussian likelihoods using state space methods. The state space formulation allows for solving one-dimensional GP models in time and memory complexity. While existing literature has focused on the connection between GP regression …
Develops state-space deep Gaussian processes for irregular signals.