Method estimates model performance on external samples from limited statistical characteristics.
problem Limited access to multiple datasets due to privacy and commercial restrictions.
method Search for weights that match external statistics and are closest to uniform, using model performance on weighted internal sample as an estimation.
result Estimated external performance is closer to actual performance than internal performance.
We show how the smooth geometry of Calabi-Yau manifolds emerges from the thermodynamic limit of the statistical mechanical model of crystal melting defined in our previous paper arXiv:0811.2801. In particular, the thermodynamic partition function of molten crystals is shown to be equal to the classical limit of the par…
New framework for interpretable firm characteristics factors.
problem Creating statistically efficient and economically interpretable factors from firm characteristics.
method Grouping related characteristics and deriving one factor per group, combining economic intuition with data-driven clustering.
result Parsimonious, transparent factors outperform benchmarks in out-of-sample tests.
In this study, the effects of eight representation regularization methods are investigated, including two newly developed rank regularizers (RR). The investigation shows that the statistical characteristics of representations such as correlation, sparsity, and rank can be manipulated as intended, during training. Furth…
Proves Euler characteristic of collapsing Alexandrov spaces.
problem Euler characteristic of collapsing Alexandrov spaces.
method Analyzes strata and fibers of the limit space.
result Euler characteristic equals sum of products of strata and fiber Euler characteristics.
Study G-H limits of surfaces with boundary, focusing on same Euler characteristic.
problem Investigate Gromov-Hausdorff limits of compact surfaces with boundary.
method Focus on surfaces with same Euler characteristic, build on previous work on closed surfaces.
result Complete description and topological properties of limit spaces.
The paper explores how market-based returns depend on past trade values.
problem Improving accuracy in forecasting market-based average and volatility of returns.
method Derives the dependence of market-based volatility and higher statistical moments of returns on statistical moments and correlations of current and past trade values.
result Market-based statistical moments can be approximated by a finite number of moments, improving forecast reliability.
The authors argue against the classification of forecasting methods as machine learning or statistical.
problem The classification of forecasting methods as machine learning or statistical limits insights into their appropriateness and effectiveness.
method Alternative characteristics of forecasting methods are proposed to draw meaningful conclusions.
result The distinction between machine learning and statistical forecasting methods is not fundamental.
This paper presents a class of new algorithms for distributed statistical estimation that exploit divide-and-conquer approach. We show that one of the key benefits of the divide-and-conquer strategy is robustness, an important characteristic for large distributed systems. We establish connections between performance of…
Statistical and probabilistic characteristics of locally free group with growing number of generators are defined and their application to statistics of braid groups is given.
Study geometric properties of SGL submanifolds in a specific manifold.
problem Analyzing geometric characteristics of SGL submanifolds.
method Examines integrability conditions and parallelism properties of distributions.
result Provides insights into geometric behavior of SGL submanifolds.
We derive a continuous time model for the joint evolution of the mid price and the bid-ask spread from a multiscale analysis of the whole limit order book (LOB) dynamics. We model the LOB as a multiclass queueing system and perform our asymptotic analysis using stylized features observed empirically. We argue that in t…
Deep learning predicts stock price changes in Limit Order Books.
problem Predicting high-frequency Limit Order Book mid-price changes.
method Cutting-edge deep learning methodologies applied to NASDAQ stocks.
result Deep learning methods' effectiveness varies by stock microstructure.
The Fisher information matrix (FIM) is a fundamental quantity to represent the characteristics of a stochastic model, including deep neural networks (DNNs). The present study reveals novel statistics of FIM that are universal among a wide class of DNNs. To this end, we use random weights and large width limits, which e…
Enhances machine learning models by preserving data structure, addressing statistical distortions.
problem Statistical distortions in synthetic data generated by Mixup.
method Proposes a generalized mixup method with a flexible weighting scheme to preserve data structure.
result Preserves statistical properties of original data while maintaining model performance.
It is widely accepted that optimization of medical imaging system performance should be guided by task-based measures of image quality (IQ). Task-based measures of IQ quantify the ability of an observer to perform a specific task such as detection or estimation of a signal (e.g., a tumor). For binary signal detection t…
Paper reviews synthetic data from AI models for statistical inference.
problem When can synthetic data be used reliably in statistical inference?
method Survey of generative models, statistical analysis of pitfalls.
result Principled use of synthetic data requires careful model specification.
Demand functions for goods are generally cyclical in nature with characteristics such as trend or stochasticity. Most existing demand forecasting techniques in literature are designed to manage and forecast this type of demand functions. However, if the demand function is lumpy in nature, then the general demand foreca…
A statistical test of independence may be constructed using the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) as a test statistic. The HSIC is defined as the distance between the embedding of the joint distribution, and the embedding of the product of the marginals, in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). It has …
Risk statistic is a critical factor not only for risk analysis but also for financial application. However, the traditional risk statistics may fail to describe the characteristics of regulator-based risk. In this paper, we consider the regulator-based risk statistics for portfolios. By further developing the propertie…
ReSGA model improves VaR and ES forecasting with millions of parameters.
problem Limited parameter models are vulnerable to big data.
method Retrieval-enhanced self-grouping autoencoder (ReSGA) with millions of parameters.
result ReSGA outperforms competitors in VaR and ES forecasting.
Study finds key investing characteristics for success in equity markets.
problem Understanding what traits lead to financial success in equity markets.
method Exploratory factor analysis and multiple linear regression on 403 respondents' data.
result Investing characteristics significantly impact individual investors' excess return.
We propose a model for the dynamics of a limit order book in a liquid market where buy and sell orders are submitted at high frequency. We derive a functional central limit theorem for the joint dynamics of the bid and ask queues and show that, when the frequency of order arrivals is large, the intraday dynamics of the…
Minimal surfaces in the sub-Riemannian Heisenberg group can be constructed by means of a Riemannian approximation scheme, as limit of Riemannian minimal surfaces. We study the regularity of Lipschitz, non-characteristic minimal surfaces which arise as such limits. Our main results are a-priori estimates on the solution…
Proposes a machine learning predictor for survey data.
problem Limited integration of machine learning in traditional surveys.
method Predictor supported by machine learning algorithms, analyzing departures from model assumptions.
result Machine learning predictors are a good alternative, even under small departures from model assumptions.
Paper presents characteristic function of Tsallis q-Gaussian and its applications.
problem Modeling input quantities in measurement models using Tsallis q-Gaussians.
method Developed a characteristic function and proposed a numerical method for its inversion.
result Exact probability distribution of output quantities can be determined.
Study analyzes stock market dynamics using Tsallis statistics and GHE, revealing pre-bubble and post-bubble market characteristics.
problem Understanding stock market dynamics and predicting market bubbles.
method Non-linear analysis using time-dependent Tsallis statistics and Generalized Hurst Exponents.
result Temporal trends of q-triplet values differ before and after market bubbles, indicating significant market dynamics changes.
This paper is trying to unveil general statistical characteristic of financial; time series data that is subjected to several financial time series data present in Indonesia, e.g. individual index such as stock price of PT. TELKOM, stock price of PT HM SAMPOERNA, and compiled stock price index (Jakarta Stock Exchange I…
Injectivity of ReLU networks studied using statistical physics.
problem When can the input of a ReLU neural network be inferred from its output?
method Connection to spherical integral geometry and statistical physics.
result Replica symmetry-breaking theory and Gordon's min--max theorem provide insights into the injectivity threshold.
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are a class of generative algorithms that have been shown to produce state-of-the art samples, especially in the domain of image creation. The fundamental principle of GANs is to approximate the unknown distribution of a given data set by optimizing an objective function through a…
Survey on Nambu-Poisson structures in infinite dimensions.
problem Generalization of Poisson and Nambu-Poisson structures in infinite dimensions.
method Study properties of associated characteristic distribution and projective/direct limits.
result Properties and limits of Nambu-Poisson structures in convenient setting.
New method improves local precipitation predictions using video diffusion.
problem Limited high-resolution local precipitation predictions due to computational costs.
method Extends video diffusion models to capture conditional distribution of high-resolution patterns.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in CRPS, MSE, and precipitation distribution.
The CGMY model's ATM call-price asymptotics are derived using characteristic function.
problem Deriving short-time asymptotics for the CGMY model's ATM call prices.
method Using the characteristic function, derived short-time asymptotics for the CGMY model's ATM call prices. Extracted higher-order coefficients by dynamic cutoff partitioning.
result Higher-order coefficients are derived for the CGMY model's ATM call prices.
Maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), also called energy distance or N-distance in statistics and Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC), specifically distance covariance in statistics, are among the most popular and successful approaches to quantify the difference and independence of random variables, respectively. T…
Statistical characteristics of deep network representations, such as sparsity and correlation, are known to be relevant to the performance and interpretability of deep learning. When a statistical characteristic is desired, often an adequate regularizer can be designed and applied during the training phase. Typically, …
Study compares geometric approaches for shape and deformation statistics.
problem Characterizing statistical models of shapes and deformations.
method Information geometry and Wasserstein geometry.
result Wasserstein estimator is robust against waveform perturbation.
Deep neural networks decompose SDF into linear and nonlinear components.
problem Constructing accurate stochastic discount factors (SDFs) for pricing.
method Additive decomposition of a deep neural network trained to construct SDFs.
result The PTK representation delivers significant performance gains in equity data.
Introduces generalized almost statistical convergence and its properties.
problem Developing a new convergence concept for sequences.
method Introducing generalized almost statistical convergence and proving its properties.
result Existence of a GAS convergent sequence that is neither statistical nor almost convergent.
We present a systematic study of various statistical characteristics of high-frequency returns from the foreign exchange market. This study is based on six exchange rates forming two triangles: EUR-GBP-USD and GBP-CHF-JPY. It is shown that the exchange rate return fluctuations for all the pairs considered are well desc…
New theory sharpens Q-learning with LDTZ rate, proving it's best of both worlds.
problem Improving Q-learning's theoretical and practical performance.
method Developed a sharp non-asymptotic error bound and central limit theory for Q-learning with PD2Z-ν schedule.
result Q-learning with LDTZ schedule achieves rapid decay and asymptotic convergence guarantees.
Model-free expression for SSR derived in terms of characteristic function.
problem Calculating the skew-stickiness-ratio (SSR) in financial markets.
method Model-free expression using characteristic function, focusing on diffusion and affine forward variance cases.
result General formula for SSR simplifies and becomes particularly tractable in affine forward variance cases, with a limit of H+3/2 for short-term limit. The purpose of this work is to explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary ergodic random process rapidly varying in time. We exploit the fact that…
By adopting Multifractal detrended fluctuation (MF-DFA) analysis methods, the multifractal nature is revealed in the high-frequency data of two typical indexes, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite 180 Index (SH180) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index (SZCI). The characteristics of the corresponding multif…
Develops a framework for identifying mispriced assets through attention factors for statistical arbitrage.
problem Identifying mispriced assets in statistical arbitrage trading.
method Uses conditional latent factors learned from firm characteristic embeddings to identify time-series signals and form a trading strategy.
result Achieves an out-of-sample Sharpe ratio above 4 on the largest U.S. equities over a 24-year period.
New framework models non-exchangeable networks with latent orders and graphons.
problem Modeling non-exchangeable network data with complex dependencies.
method Latent orders and graphon-based approach for adjacency matrix probabilities.
result Consistent estimation and clustering of latent network structure.
Study investigates XAI methods in clinical gait analysis.
problem Limited understanding of machine learning models in healthcare.
method XAI methods, specifically Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP), to explain ML predictions.
result Explanations from LRP show promising statistical and clinical relevance.
In Ben-David et al.'s "Learnability Can Be Undecidable," they prove an independence result in theoretical machine learning. In particular, they define a new type of learnability, called Estimating The Maximum (EMX) learnability. They argue that this type of learnability fits in with other notions such as PAC learnabili…
Paper proposes ExsdHawkes to model LOBs, capturing volatility dynamics.
problem Modeling volatility signature plots in LOBs with high-frequency trading dynamics.
method Extended State-Dependent Hawkes Process (ExsdHawkes) with relaxed constraints.
result ExsdHawkes uniquely reproduces volatility signature plots, identifying MLOs as catalysts.