I consider the problem of the optimal limit order price of a financial asset in the framework of the maximization of the utility function of the investor. The analytical solution of the problem gives insight on the origin of the recently empirically observed power law distribution of limit order prices. In the framewor…
Deviation inequalities and limit laws for random walks on metric spaces.
problem Understanding random walks on metric spaces with contracting isometries.
method Adapting Gouëzel's pivotal time construction to establish deviation inequalities.
result Exponential bounds and limit laws for random walks on mapping class groups and CAT(0) spaces.
Novel groups exhibit contradictory behaviors with respect to Burnside laws.
problem Understanding probabilistic behaviors of groups under Burnside laws.
method Geometric analysis of relations, information-theoretic coding, combinatorial and probabilistic methods.
result Groups can satisfy Burnside laws with probability 1 for some generating sets and 0 for others.
We study the volume distribution of nodal domains of random band-limited functions on generic manifolds, and find that in the high energy limit a typical instance obeys a deterministic universal law, independent of the manifold. Some of the basic qualitative properties of this law, such as its support, monotonicity and…
Study compares exponential and power-law kernels in modeling high-frequency trading data.
problem Modeling high-frequency trading data with specific kernel types.
method Proposes and analyzes two bivariate Hawkes processes with exponential and power-law kernels.
result Identifies strengths and limitations of exponential and power-law kernels for high-frequency trading data.
The paper connects neural networks to physics using probability theory.
problem Creating neural networks that follow physical laws.
method Applying the central limit theorem and Gaussian process theory to neural networks.
result Neural networks can be designed to obey physical laws by choosing appropriate activation functions.
Polynomial decay of correlations shown for curved surfaces.
problem Analyzing geodesic flows on curved surfaces.
method Proving polynomial decay of correlations for geodesic flows on nonpositively curved surfaces.
result Polynomial decay of correlations for geodesic flows on nonpositively curved surfaces.
A power-law fit to the empirical inference-compute frontier in LOB prediction suggests a scaling-law-style frontier.
problem Limit order book prediction
method Using a suite of models ranging from small decision trees to neural LOB architectures
result A power-law fit to the low- and mid-compute non-MLPLOB frontier extrapolates across multiple orders of magnitude and attains R2=0.941 on the excluded high-compute MLPLOB target frontier. Sharp theory of neural network scaling laws for hierarchical targets.
problem Learning hierarchical multi-index models in neural networks.
method Sharp information-theoretic scaling laws derived for two-layer neural networks.
result Optimal rates achieved by a simple spectral estimator.
New phases identified in neural scaling laws with compute limits.
problem Understanding neural scaling laws under compute constraints.
method Solved neural scaling model with stochastic gradient descent, derived loss curves, analyzed model-parameter-count phases.
result Identified 4 phases (+3 subphases) in data-complexity/target-complexity phase-plane, derived exponents.
Study geodesic paths on flat surfaces, comparing length and singularity counts.
problem Comparing geometric length and singularity counts on geodesic paths.
method Apply counting limit laws to infinite graphs and then to flat surfaces.
result Statistical comparison of geometric length and singularity counts on geodesic paths.
New neural scaling law found for simple quadratic function.
problem Neural scaling laws and their predictions for model performance.
method Analysis of neural networks, lottery ticket ensembling, statistical interpretation.
result Found a new scaling law (α=1) for a simple quadratic function, contradicting previous theories. Theory explains neural network scaling with dataset and model size.
problem Neural network scaling laws with dataset and model size.
method Identified variance-limited and resolution-limited scaling behaviors.
result Four scaling regimes explained: infinite data, infinite width, resolution-limited, and large width.
We present a class of macroscopic models of the Limit Order Book to simulate the aggregate behaviour of market makers in response to trading flows. The resulting models are solved numerically and asymptotically, and a class of similarity solutions linked to order book formation and recovery is explored. The main result…
Two price regimes identified in limit order books: close and far from quotes.
problem Understanding the distribution and behavior of limit orders in limit order books.
method Analysis of limit order book data in dimensions of price, time, lifetime, and volume.
result Identification of two distinct regimes in the limit order book: close and far from quotes.
Theory predicts neural scaling exponents from language statistics.
problem No existing theory could quantitatively predict neural scaling exponents.
method Isolated two key statistical properties of language.
result Derives a simple formula predicting neural scaling exponents.
Study random walks on CAT(0) spaces with contracting elements, proving limit laws.
problem Analyzing random walks on spaces with non-positive curvature.
method Use of contracting elements and hyperbolic models for CAT(0) spaces.
result Prove almost sure convergence to the boundary without moment assumption.
The paper analyzes Bayesian neural networks trained with VI, proving a law of large numbers for different schemes.
problem Training Bayesian neural networks with variational inference.
method Analyzes three training schemes: exact estimation, Bayes by Backprop, and Minimal VI.
result All training schemes converge to the same mean-field limit.
SGD with constant stepsize converges to a non-Gaussian limit near flat minima.
problem Behavior of SGD near flat minima with convex objectives.
method Analyzes SGD with Markovian noise and contractive driving chain.
result Invariant law concentrates on scale α1/m and converges weakly to a non-Gaussian stationary distribution. In this paper, we utilize information theory to study the fundamental performance limitations of generic feedback systems, where both the controller and the plant may be any causal functions/mappings while the disturbance can be with any distributions. More specifically, we obtain fundamental Lp bounds on …
New Weyl's laws discovered for compact spaces with Ricci curvature bounds.
problem Understanding growth rates of eigenvalues in compact spaces with Ricci curvature constraints.
method Developed new properties of α-Grushin halfplanes and analyzed singular sets of null capacities. result Established Weyl's laws with power growth and logarithmic corrections for compact spaces.
We model a closed economic system with interactions that generates the features of empirical wealth distribution across all wealth brackets, namely a Gibbsian trend in the lower and middle wealth range and a Pareto trend in the higher range, by simply limiting the an agents' interaction to only agents with nearly the s…
Pareto law, which states that wealth distribution in societies have a power-law tail, has been a subject of intensive investigations in statistical physics community. Several models have been employed to explain this behavior. However, most of the agent based models assume the conservation of number of agents and wealt…
Study on eigenvalue distribution of correlated time series deforming the semi-circle law.
problem Eigenvalue distribution of correlated time series differs from the semi-circle law.
method Analysis of Wigner random matrix with temporal correlation.
result Eigenvalue distribution converges to a deformed semi-circle law with longer tail and higher peak.
We obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of "conservation laws" on null hypersurfaces for the wave equation on general four-dimensional Lorentzian manifolds. Examples of null hypersurfaces exhibiting such conservation laws include the standard null cones of Minkowski spacetime and the degenerate …
Large models follow power laws in performance with dataset size or parameters.
problem Understanding neural scaling laws in large language models.
method Joint generative data model and random feature model.
result Modeling and solving the dual limit reveals insights into scaling laws.
Statistical properties of an order book and the effect they have on price dynamics were studied using the high-frequency NASDAQ Level II data. It was observed that the size distribution of marketable orders (transaction sizes) has power law tails with an exponent 1+mu_{market}=2.4 \pm 0.1. The distribution of limit ord…
This work analyzes neural scaling laws using power-law data spectra and derives analytical expressions for generalization error.
problem Understanding how neural network performance scales with key factors like data size and model complexity.
method Statistical mechanics techniques applied to one-pass stochastic gradient descent in a student-teacher framework.
result Derivation of analytical expressions for generalization error under power-law data spectra and identification of conditions for power-law scaling.
This paper studies a limit order book (LOB) model, in which the order dynamics depend on both, the current best available prices and the current volume density functions. For the joint dynamics of the best bid price, the best ask price, and the standing volume densities on both sides of the LOB we derive a weak law of …
The paper studies neural networks with wide layers and finds a deformed semicircle law.
problem Investigating spectral distributions of neural networks in the ultra-wide regime.
method Analyzes empirical kernel matrices, proves deformed semicircle law, provides nonlinear Hanson-Wright inequality.
result Emergence of a deformed semicircle law in the ultra-wide neural network regime.
New mechanism found for power laws including Zipf's law.
problem Understanding the ubiquity of power law distributions.
method Introduced nonlinear self-excited Hawkes processes with fast-accelerating intensities.
result Wide class of nonlinear Hawkes processes have power law intensity PDFs.
To know the statistical distribution of a variable is an important problem in management of resources. Distributions of the power law type are observed in many real systems. However power law distributions have an infinite variance and thus can not be used as a standard distribution. Normally professionals in the area …
We analyse the dynamics of the Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG at a daily time horizon before and after its well defined local maxima of the cusp-like shape decorated with oscillations. The rising and falling paths of the index peaks can be described by the Mittag-Leffler function superposed with various types of oscil…
Study examines risk premium convergence rates in risk sharing contracts.
problem Analyzing risk premium convergence rates in risk sharing contracts.
method Examines the limiting behavior of risk premium associated with Pareto optimal risk sharing contracts under general law-invariant risk measures.
result Risk premium convergence rate is typically n1/2, not n. Improves machine learning models by incorporating physical laws into feature maps.
problem Lack of model interpretability in classical machine learning approaches.
method Physics-informed feature maps constructed from physical laws and dimensional analysis.
result Enhanced model interpretability and potential discovery of new physical equations.
One of the first steps to understand and forecast economic downturns is identifying their frequency distribution, but it remains uncertain. This problem is common in phenomena displaying power-law-like distributions. Power laws play a central role in complex systems theory; therefore, the current limitations in the ide…
Gradually Truncated Log-normal distribution - Size distribution of firms Abstract Many natural and economical phenomena are described through power law or log- normal distributions. In these cases, probability decreases very slowly with step size compared to normal distribution. Thus it is essential to cut-off these di…
This paper tightens the law of the iterated logarithm for empirical KL_inf, applicable to unbounded data.
problem Developing nonasymptotic concentration bounds for empirical KL_inf with optimal constants and rates.
method Presenting a tight law of the iterated logarithm for empirical KL_inf, applicable to unbounded data.
result A tight law of the iterated logarithm for empirical KL_inf, applicable to unbounded data.
Modeling financial markets with a novel order flow model.
problem Inconsistent parameter values from long-range memory estimators.
method Tsallis q-exponential distribution for limit order cancellation times.
result Improved accuracy in predicting financial market dynamics.
Procedure for determining less discriminatory alternatives in AI audits with limited resources.
problem Difficulty in proving less discriminatory alternatives in AI audits due to resource constraints.
method Closed-form upper bound for loss-fairness Pareto frontier, enabling claimants to fit PFs without training large models.
result A scaling law for loss-fairness Pareto frontiers, allowing claimants to determine if an LDA exists with limited resources.
The Volterra square-root process shows non-uniqueness of limiting distributions and regularity of its law.
problem Non-uniqueness of limiting distributions in the Volterra square-root process.
method Establishing existence of limiting distributions using integrability of the Volterra convolution kernel and exponential-affine transformation.
result The limiting distributions of the Volterra square-root process depend on the initial state and belong to weighted Besov spaces.
A new law limits kurtosis contrast in balanced mixtures.
problem Kurtosis-based ICA fails in wide, balanced mixtures.
method Proved a redundancy law and showed purification restores contrast.
result Kurtosis contrast obeys O(κmax/Reff) in balanced mixtures. Survey on random walks on mapping class groups and their properties.
problem Understanding random walks on mapping class groups.
method Analyzing actions on Teichmüller spaces and curve complexes.
result Laws of large numbers and central limit theorems for random walks.
Unified model explains market dynamics, linking order flow, volatility, and impact.
problem Understanding the dynamics of order flow, market impact, and volatility in financial markets.
method Proposes a microstructural model using Hawkes processes to distinguish core orders and reaction flow, and analyzes their scaling limits.
result Estimates the persistence parameter H0 and finds it consistent with market impact and volatility properties. We discover scaling laws for kernel regression loss under various learning rate schedules.
problem Understanding loss dynamics and learning rate schedules in kernel regression.
method Theoretical analysis of stochastic gradient descent on a power-law kernel regression model.
result Established a Functional Scaling Law (FSL) capturing the full loss trajectory under arbitrary learning rate schedules.
The paper tackles restless bandits with limited observation, proposing a method to analyze and approximate their optimal strategies.
problem Restless bandits with limited observation.
method General probabilistic model, PCL analysis, and approximation process.
result The proposed method can transform the problem into a finite-state problem, enabling the use of existing algorithms.
Generative model creates frictional surfaces from friction laws.
problem Designing frictional interfaces with prescribed behavior is challenging.
method Uses Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) to infer surface topographies from friction laws.
result Efficiently generates candidate topographies without contact simulations.
This paper solves the problem of optimal dynamic consumption, investment, and healthcare spending with isoelastic utility, when natural mortality grows exponentially to reflect Gompertz' law and investment opportunities are constant. Healthcare slows the natural growth of mortality, indirectly increasing utility from c…