We establish when the two problems of minimizing a function of lifetime minimum wealth and of maximizing utility of lifetime consumption result in the same optimal investment strategy on a given open interval in wealth space. To answer this question, we equate the two investment strategies and show that if the indi…
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48 results for “lifetime utility”
Maximizing Utility of Consumption Subject to a Constraint on the Probability of Lifetime Ruinq-fin.PM
In this note, we explicitly solve the problem of maximizing utility of consumption (until the minimum of bankruptcy and the time of death) with a constraint on the probability of lifetime ruin, which can be interpreted as a risk measure on the whole path of the wealth process.
Greedy algorithm optimizes consumption habits with power utility.
problem Optimizing lifetime consumption with habit formation under power utility.
method Developed a greedy algorithm using Monte Carlo simulation.
result Greedy solution is a good approximation to the optimal solution.
This paper optimizes tontines for retirement income, improving on historical designs.
problem Designing optimal retirement income products that outperform traditional annuities.
method Solves Euler-Lagrange equation to derive optimal tontine structure, considering longevity risk aversion and pool size.
result The natural tontine is near-optimal for all levels of longevity risk aversion and pool size, offering better lifetime utility than traditional annuities.
This report is concerned with the Mondrian process and its applications in machine learning. The Mondrian process is a guillotine-partition-valued stochastic process that possesses an elegant self-consistency property. The first part of the report uses simple concepts from applied probability to define the Mondrian pro…
Deep Learning-Based Residual Useful Lifetime Prediction for Assets with Uncertain Failure Modescs.LG
This research improves asset life prediction by integrating deep learning with mixture distributions.
problem Predicting residual useful life for assets with multiple failure modes.
method Integrates mixture (log)-location-scale distribution with deep learning.
result Proposed models outperform existing methods in predicting residual useful life.
A neural-network model clusters subjects based on their lifetime distributions.
problem Clustering subjects into clusters based on their lifetime distributions.
method A neural-network based lifetime clustering model that maximizes divergence between empirical lifetime distributions of clusters.
result Significantly better lifetime clusters compared to competing approaches.
The paper optimizes retirement spending considering habit formation and pension income.
problem Optimizing lifetime consumption under habit formation and pension income.
method Time inhomogeneous stochastic control problem with numerical solution using finite difference scheme.
result Consumption patterns change over time based on habit and optimal strategy.
The paper models the dependence between lifetimes of married couples using copulas.
problem The independence assumption in bivariate lifetime modeling for life insurance products is often violated.
method Copula approach with age difference and gender of the elder partner as arguments of the dependence parameter. Maximum likelihood techniques for parameter estimation.
result The correlation between lifetimes decreases with age difference and is higher when the husband is older.
Optimizes treatment duration to maximize quality-adjusted lifetime.
problem Balancing risks and benefits in clinical decision making.
method Proposes a weighted estimating equation to adjust for confounding and informative censoring, and a nonparametric estimator for mean counterfactual quality-adjusted lifetime.
result Shows the optimal time for percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy insertion in ALS patients.
We provide investment advice for an individual who wishes to minimize her lifetime poverty, with a penalty for bankruptcy or ruin. We measure poverty via a non-negative, non-increasing function of (running) wealth. Thus, the lower wealth falls and the longer wealth stays low, the greater the penalty. This paper general…
Paper uses RNN to predict SaaS user lifetime value.
problem Predicting user lifetime value in SaaS applications.
method Recurrent Neural Network with multi-cell architecture, accounting for cohort, age-in-system, and contemporaneous information.
result Significantly improved prediction accuracy compared to existing models.
New features from early battery cycles predict lifetime with high accuracy.
problem Accurately predicting battery lifetime under varying conditions is challenging due to manufacturing variability and usage-dependent degradation.
method Extracted features from regularly scheduled reference performance tests and used them to predict battery lifetime using a hierarchical Bayesian regression model.
result Demonstrated a lifetime prediction of in-distribution cells with 15.1% mean absolute percentage error using only the first 15% of data.
We solve a continuous-time game-theoretic problem for Kihlstrom-Mirman preferences.
problem Dynamic inconsistency in preferences due to multiattribute utility theory.
method Formalized an equilibrium control theory for continuous-time Markov processes.
result Equilibrium strategy and value function as solution to extended HJB system.
Optimizes consumption, investment, and healthcare spending for aging populations.
problem Maximizing utility in an aging population with changing mortality rates.
method Solves an optimal stochastic control problem using a novel version of Perron's method.
result Endogenous mortality law that is asymptotically exponential in the old-age limit.
Optimal Retirement Tontines for the 21st Century: With Reference to Mortality Derivatives in 1693q-fin.PM
Historical tontines promised enormous rewards to the last survivors at the expense of those who died early. While this design appealed to the gambling instinct, it is a suboptimal way to manage longevity risk during retirement. This is why fair life annuities making constant payments -- where the insurance company is e…
Deep neural network for optimal retirement consumption in defined contribution pension systemq-fin.GN
Deep neural network optimizes retirement consumption in defined contribution pensions.
problem Optimizing consumption in a defined contribution pension system.
method Formulated as a stochastic control problem, trained deep neural network policy.
result Deep neural network outperforms deterministic rules and adapts to market changes.
We determine the optimal investment strategy of an individual who targets a given rate of consumption and who seeks to minimize the probability of going bankrupt before she dies, also known as {\it lifetime ruin}. We impose two types of borrowing constraints: First, we do not allow the individual to borrow money to inv…
Machine learning speeds up FLIM analysis in biomedical research.
problem Complex, slow, and computationally expensive FLIM analysis.
method Machine learning techniques for faster and smarter FLIM data extraction and interpretation.
result Higher accuracy in classifying and segmenting FLIM images compared to conventional methods.
We consider the classical Merton problem of lifetime consumption-portfolio optimization problem with small proportional transaction costs. The first order term in the asymptotic expansion is explicitly calculated through a singular ergodic control problem which can be solved in closed form in the one-dimensional case. …
Investing for the Long Runq-fin.PM
Investing for the long run using simplified SDF concepts.
problem Optimizing long-term investment strategies considering utility and consumption.
method Introducing generalized stochastic discount factor (SDF) and minimum price concept.
result Simplified SDF dynamics simplify optimal portfolio strategies and improve lifetime consumption-portfolio choices.
optHSIC tests independence between covariates and censored lifetimes using optimal transport.
problem Testing independence between a covariate and right-censored lifetimes.
method optHSIC uses optimal transport to transform censored data into uncensored data, then applies a permutation test with a kernel-based dependence measure.
result optHSIC has power against a wider class of alternatives than Cox regression and maintains type 1 error control even when censoring depends on the covariate.
A new model for lifetime maximization with reneging in heterogeneous outcomes.
problem Maximizing lifetime in applications with reneging and heterogeneous satisfaction levels.
method Heteroscedastic linear bandits with reneging, UCB-type policy HR-UCB.
result HR-UCB achieves regret.
The "standard" Merton formulation of optimal investment and consumption involves optimizing the integrated lifetime utility of consumption, suitably discounted, together with the discounted future bequest. In this formulation the utility of consumption at any given time depends only on the amount consumed at that time.…
Predict player lifetime value based on engagement metrics.
problem User profiling in video games.
method Survival curves, deep learning, long short-term memory.
result Deep learning predicts player lifetime value.
Study uses Open Banking data to estimate customer value, showing potential 21% increase.
problem Limited CLV estimation using single-entity data.
method Introduces PCLV framework using Open Banking data for comprehensive customer value estimation.
result Open Banking data can estimate PCLV per competitor, showing a 21.06% increase over Actual CLV.
Deep neural networks outperform parametric models in predicting customer lifetime value in video games.
problem Predicting the economic value of individual players in free-to-play video games.
method Exploration of deep neural networks and parametric models (Pareto/NBD) for predicting customer lifetime value.
result Convolutional neural networks are the most efficient in predicting the economic value of individual players.
Optimal timing for converting savings into annuities considering mortality risk.
problem Determining the best time to annuitize retirement savings under stochastic mortality.
method Formulated as a three-dimensional optimal stopping problem, reduced to nested one-dimensional problems, solved using PDMP structure.
result Rich structure for the optimal annuitization rule, covering various parameter specifications.
Model shows how firms manage risk and capital in default-prone markets.
problem Managing risk and capital in firms facing default risk.
method Developed a model to characterize optimal dividend and capital structure policies.
result Optimal policy involves paying dividends to keep equity value below a critical threshold.
Paper tackles lifetime ruin with hedge funds and high-watermark fees, considering drift uncertainty.
problem Lifetime ruin problem with hedge funds and high-watermark fees under drift uncertainty.
method Employed the stochastic Perron's method to characterize the value function as the unique viscosity solution to the HJB equation.
result Characterized the value function as the unique viscosity solution without resorting to the proof of dynamic programming principle.
Improves A/B testing for long-term outcomes in dynamic systems.
problem Estimating long-term effects from short-term A/B testing data.
method Develops optimal inference techniques and localized information sharing methods.
result New estimator reduces variance linearly with test arms and matches lower bounds.
We study a risk sensitive control version of the lifetime ruin probability problem. We consider a sequence of investments problems in Black-Scholes market that includes a risky asset and a riskless asset. We present a differential game that governs the limit behavior. We solve it explicitly and use it in order to find …
Two stochastic representations help prove infinite lifetime and bound gradients on sub-Riemannian manifolds.
problem Proving infinite lifetime and finding gradient bounds on sub-Riemannian manifolds.
method Using stochastic representations of heat semigroups and interplay between sub-Riemannian geometry and connections.
result Explicit pointwise bounds for horizontal gradients on Carnot groups.
We show that the mutual fund theorems of Merton (1971) extend to the problem of optimal investment to minimize the probability of lifetime ruin. We obtain two such theorems by considering a financial market both with and without a riskless asset for random consumption. The striking result is that we obtain two-fund the…
ASOS uses embeddings to predict customer lifetime value.
problem Predicting future customer value for personalized shopping experiences.
method Generates embeddings of customers from data, improving over handcrafted features.
result Significant improvement in predicting customer lifetime value.
Theory of Information Pricingq-fin.PR
In financial markets valuable information is rarely circulated homogeneously, because of time required for information to spread. However, advances in communication technology means that the 'lifetime' of important information is typically short. Hence, viewed as a tradable asset, information shares the characteristics…
Study the systemic risk of big banks through a unique common shock model.
problem Analyzing systemic riskiness of systemically important financial institutions.
method Developed a unique common shock model to study lifetimes of financial institutions, analyzing their dependence structure and applying it to European SIFI.
result The model reveals the distributional properties of lifetimes affected by both idiosyncratic and systemic shocks.
Study optimal healthcare spending under Epstein-Zin preferences for longevity.
problem Optimizing healthcare spending to extend longevity under Epstein-Zin preferences.
method Formulated Epstein-Zin utilities over a controllable random horizon using backward stochastic differential equations and HJB equations.
result Calibrated model accurately reflects actual mortality data and compares healthcare efficacy between countries.
Wireless sensor networks are composed of distributed sensors that can be used for signal detection or classification. The likelihood functions of the hypotheses are often not known in advance, and decision rules have to be learned via supervised learning. A specific such algorithm is Fisher discriminant analysis (FDA),…
The paper stabilizes PD term structures under forecast uncertainty using a Kalman filter with an anchored observation model.
problem Stable estimation of lifetime PDs under forecast uncertainty.
method Reformulated in state-space framework, introduced an anchored observation model.
result Asymptotic stochastic stability of error dynamics, leading to smoother projections.
The study improves CLV predictions in retail banking with machine learning.
problem Estimating customer lifetime value in retail banking is challenging.
method Developed a novel framework for CLV predictions over arbitrary time horizons.
result 43% improvement in out-of-time CLV prediction error.
We find the minimum probability of lifetime ruin of an investor who can invest in a market with a risky and a riskless asset and can purchase a deferred annuity. Although we let the admissible set of strategies of annuity purchasing process to be increasing adapted processes, we find that the individual will not buy a …
Paper proposes decentralized annuities for better retirement security.
problem Current pension systems' limitations and fairness issues.
method Theoretical models and fairness concepts analysis.
result Decentralized annuities offer enhanced flexibility and social welfare.
Automates RL for LTV in recommender systems.
problem Maximizing future user gains over time.
method Combines RL with recommendation systems, automating state-space representation.
result Automated RL for LTV maximizes user gains over time.
New approach models individual vitality for better mortality predictions.
problem Limited ability of existing mortality models to capture individual complexity.
method Developed a four-component framework for individual vitality dynamics.
result Demonstrates improved analytical and practical outcomes in life insurance and lifetime decision-making.
We determine the optimal amount to invest in a Black-Scholes financial market for an individual who consumes at a rate equal to a constant proportion of her wealth and who wishes to minimize the expected time that her wealth spends in drawdown during her lifetime. Drawdown occurs when wealth is less than some fixed pro…
BESS shows potential in European markets for frequency support, but not for energy arbitrage.
problem Lack of profitability for BESS in energy arbitrage in most European markets.
method Proposed a general payoff model for BESS operation and calculated utilization factors for common applications.
result BESS shows higher potential in providing frequency support services, especially in Central Western and Northern Europe.
The study examines Cox models for lifetime loan default risk, addressing biased estimates by incorporating recurrent events.
problem Ignoring recurrent default events in Cox models leads to biased and inaccurate PD estimates.
method Investigates and compares different Cox models (Andersen-Gill and Prentice-Williams-Peterson) for lifetime loan default risk.
result The Andersen-Gill model underperforms compared to the Prentice-Williams-Person model and the time to first default model.