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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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103207310413 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for least-squares importance fitting

Riesz regression connects to density ratio estimation for causal inference.

problem Estimating average treatment effects in causal inference.
method Riesz regression as a signed density ratio and least-squares importance fitting.
result Riesz regression and DRE are equivalent, allowing transfer of DRE results.

The ratio of two probability densities can be used for solving various machine learning tasks such as covariate shift adaptation (importance sampling), outlier detection (likelihood-ratio test), and feature selection (mutual information). Recently, several methods of directly estimating the density ratio have been deve…

2009-12-15abs ↗pdf ↗

The log-periodic power law (LPPL) is a model of asset prices during endogenous bubbles. If the on-going development of a bubble is suspected, asset prices can be fit numerically to the LPPL law. The best solutions can then indicate whether a bubble is in progress and, if so, the bubble critical time (i.e., when the bub…

2010-03-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Ordinary least squares (OLS) is the default method for fitting linear models, but is not applicable for problems with dimensionality larger than the sample size. For these problems, we advocate the use of a generalized version of OLS motivated by ridge regression, and propose two novel three-step algorithms involving l…

2015-06-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Within the Own Risk and Solvency Assessment framework, the Solvency II directive introduces the need for insurance undertakings to have efficient tools enabling the companies to assess the continuous compliance with regulatory solvency requirements. Because of the great operational complexity resulting from each comple…

2013-09-27abs ↗pdf ↗

A recently introduced Importance Sampling strategy based on a least squares optimization is applied to the Monte Carlo simulation of Libor Market Models. Such Least Squares Importance Sampling (LSIS) allows the automatic optimization of the sampling distribution within a trial class by means of a quick presimulation al…

2007-11-01abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method treats all variables equally in fitting data.

problem Fitting relationships to data with multiple variables, especially when dependent and independent variables are not clearly defined.
method A general method treating all variables impartially, using geometric mean functional relationships and correlation.
result The method provides coefficients that are easily calculated from covariances or correlations, making it scale-invariant and applicable to various units.

The paper solves the problem of fitting an ellipsoid to random points efficiently.

problem Finding an ellipsoid that passes through random Gaussian points.
method Constructing a fitting ellipsoid using a decomposition of a random matrix and graph matrix theory.
result The ellipsoid fitting problem transitions from feasible to infeasible at a sharp threshold of nd2/4n \sim d^2/4.

We describe a simple Importance Sampling strategy for Monte Carlo simulations based on a least squares optimization procedure. With several numerical examples, we show that such Least Squares Importance Sampling (LSIS) provides efficiency gains comparable to the state of the art techniques, when the latter are known to…

2007-03-18abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm reduces rank constrained optimization problems.

problem Rank constrained optimization problems in machine learning and statistics.
method Recursive Importance Sketching (RISRO) algorithm.
result RISRO offers clear advantages over existing algorithms and converges efficiently.

Information that is stored in an encrypted format is, by definition, usually not amenable to statistical analysis or machine learning methods. In this paper we present detailed analysis of coordinate and accelerated gradient descent algorithms which are capable of fitting least squares and penalised ridge regression mo…

2017-03-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Cross-validation estimates model performance on unseen data, not training data.

problem Understanding how cross-validation estimates prediction error and its limitations.
method Analyzing linear models and popular prediction error estimates, introducing nested cross-validation.
result Cross-validation estimates the average prediction error of models fit on other unseen training sets, not the model at hand.

Study shows how varying levels of supervision and orthonormality constraints affect generalization errors in subspace fitting.

problem Effects of varying levels of supervision and orthonormality constraints on generalization errors in subspace fitting.
method Flexible family of problems connecting unsupervised and supervised subspace fitting tasks, explored over a supervision-orthonormality plane.
result Generalization errors of subspace fitting problems follow double descent trends as they become more supervised and less orthonormally constrained.

Optimizes K inner simulations for least-square Monte Carlo to reduce computational cost.

problem Computing conditional expectation E[f (Y)|X] with limited samples.
method Determines optimal number of Y samples (K) for given computational budget.
result Computational gain is maximized when sampling Y given X is inexpensive.

Proposes a new regression method using LpL_p-norms for non-Gaussian noise.

problem Non-Gaussian noise in residuals affects the performance of local least squares regression.
method Introduces local polynomial LpL_p-norm regression, replacing weighted least squares with weighted LpL_p-norm estimation.
result Demonstrates superior performance over local least squares in one-dimensional data and higher dimensions.

The derivation of statistical properties for Partial Least Squares regression can be a challenging task. The reason is that the construction of latent components from the predictor variables also depends on the response variable. While this typically leads to good performance and interpretable models in practice, it ma…

2010-02-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian optimization speeds up parameter reconstruction in optical nano-metrology.

problem Efficiently reconstructing parameters from time-consuming measurements in optical nano-metrology.
method Combines Bayesian optimization and curve fitting for faster, more efficient model fitting.
result The presented Bayesian Target Vector Optimization scheme achieves similar reconstruction performance with fewer model function calls.

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) methods such as the Deep Q-Network (DQN) have achieved state-of-the-art results in a variety of challenging, high-dimensional domains. This success is mainly attributed to the power of deep neural networks to learn rich domain representations for approximating the value function or pol…

2017-05-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Local MDI+ improves feature importance for tree-based models, enhancing interpretability and performance.

problem Lack of instance-specific feature importance for tree-based models.
method Local MDI+ extends MDI+ framework to provide instance-specific feature importances.
result Local MDI+ outperforms existing baselines, improving predictive performance by 10%.

Proposes φφ-table for statistical SHAP explanations in regression models.

problem Lack of clear directional summaries, uncertainty, and fidelity in SHAP feature importance.
method SHAP importance selection, fitting a standardized linear surrogate, reporting coefficients, uncertainty, fidelity, and stability.
result Extends SHAP into a statistical global explanation with direction, uncertainty, fidelity, and stability.

BCRL learns a Bellman complete representation for offline RL policy evaluation.

problem Learning a Q-function efficiently from offline data.
method BCRL learns a linear Bellman complete representation directly from data, enabling efficient OPE.
result BCRL achieves competitive OPE error and outperforms FQE in certain scenarios.

Paper proposes a pre-conditioning technique to speed up gradient-descent convergence in distributed linear least-squares problems.

problem Expediting convergence of gradient-descent method for ill-conditioned distributed linear least-squares problems.
method Iterative pre-conditioning technique to improve convergence rate of gradient-descent method.
result Pre-conditioned gradient-descent achieves superlinear convergence for unique solutions and improved linear convergence otherwise.

We develop a general theory for the goodness-of-fit test to non-linear models. In particular, we assume that the observations are noisy samples of a submanifold defined by a \yao{sufficiently smooth non-linear map}. The observation noise is additive Gaussian. Our main result shows that the "residual" of the model fit, …

2019-09-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops a method for identifying structured dynamical systems from data.

problem Identifying structured dynamical systems from undersampled and noisy data.
method Sparse least-squares fitting via 12\ell_1-\ell_2 optimization with the alternating direction method of multipliers.
result The method is stable and successful under certain conditions, as shown by theoretical guarantees and computational results.

FIT evaluates time series model feature importance quantifying distributional shift.

problem Lack of explanations for time series models in high-stakes applications.
method FIT framework quantifies feature importance based on distributional shift using KL-divergence.
result FIT identifies important time points and observations superiorly compared to baselines.