We study asymptotic properties of some (essentially conditional least squares) parameter estimators for the subcritical Heston model based on discrete time observations derived from conditional least squares estimators of some modified parameters.
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Sequential Least-Squares Estimators with Fast Randomized Sketching for Linear Statistical Modelsstat.ML
A new method for estimating large-scale linear models with improved precision.
problem Estimating large-scale linear statistical models efficiently.
method Sequential Least-Squares Estimators with Fast Randomized Sketching (SLSE-FRS), integrating Sketch-and-Solve and Iterative-Sketching methods.
result SLSE-FRS produces high-precision estimators, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
Efficiently estimates private least squares with linear error growth.
problem Private estimation of ordinary least squares with bounded residuals and leverage.
method Scaled noise added to a stable nonprivate estimator of the regression vector.
result Near-optimal accuracy guarantee with linear error growth in dimension.
The ratio of two probability densities can be used for solving various machine learning tasks such as covariate shift adaptation (importance sampling), outlier detection (likelihood-ratio test), and feature selection (mutual information). Recently, several methods of directly estimating the density ratio have been deve…
Lower Bounds and a Near-Optimal Shrinkage Estimator for Least Squares using Random Projectionsmath.OC
Improved estimator for least squares using random projections achieves smaller error.
problem Improving the accuracy of least squares solutions for large-scale problems.
method James-Stein estimator applied to Gaussian sketching of least squares problems.
result Upper and lower bounds match when SNR is small and data matrix is well-conditioned.
We prove the statistical consistency of kernel Partial Least Squares Regression applied to a bounded regression learning problem on a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Partial Least Squares stands out of well-known classical approaches as e.g. Ridge Regression or Principal Components Regression, as it is not defined as…
Least squares estimation for the subcritical Heston model based on continuous time observationsmath.ST
We prove strong consistency and asymptotic normality of least squares estimators for the subcritical Heston model based on continuous time observations. We also present some numerical illustrations of our results.
Least squares estimator fails to achieve optimal risk in bounded distributions, but non-linear predictors can.
problem Optimal risk in bounded distributions for constrained least squares.
method Comparison of least squares and non-linear predictors.
result Non-linear predictors can achieve optimal risk in bounded distributions.
New algorithms estimate Jacobian matrices for large-scale machine learning.
problem Efficiently computing search directions for large nonlinear least squares.
method Exploit low-rank structure in Hessian to estimate Jacobian matrices.
result Two algorithms perform well compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Synthesizes robust estimators for domain adaptation.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in target domain with limited data.
method Synthesizes a family of robust least squares estimators using convex optimization.
result Robust strategies can outperform non-robust interpolations.
Efficiently estimates rotations with corrupted data.
problem Rotation synchronization under high corruption and noise.
method Message passing algorithm with reweighted least squares.
result Superior performance over state-of-the-art methods.
The paper examines prediction and estimation risks of ridgeless least squares under general error assumptions.
problem Prediction and estimation risks of ridgeless least squares under realistic error structures.
method Analysis of prediction and estimation risks under general regression error assumptions, including clustered or serial dependence.
result The benefits of overparameterization extend to time series, panel, and grouped data.
The paper explores how overfitting can lead to better predictions in high-dimensional data.
problem Understanding the behavior of linear models in high-dimensional settings with more predictors than observations.
method Analysis of ordinary least squares, penalized least squares, and spectral shrinkage estimates.
result The phenomenon of double descent, where model performance can improve with increasing model complexity.
Least Squares Estimators are suboptimal for 5D convex functions.
problem Suboptimality of Least Squares Estimators in estimating multidimensional convex functions.
method Analysis of natural subclasses of convex functions in random and fixed design settings.
result Risk of LSE is while minimax risk is for .
Optimal multiscale learning of linear operators
problem Statistical and computational limits of learning bounded linear operators between Sobolev spaces
method Reformulate as an infinite-dimensional matrix regression problem with heterogeneous multiscale structure
result Establish minimax rates and construct a finite-resolution blockwise least-squares estimator attaining these rates
Improved robust regression for heavy-tailed and contaminated data.
problem Linear regression with heavy-tailed and adversarially contaminated covariates and responses.
method Applying a filtering algorithm to covariates and then using Huber regression, least trimmed squares, or least absolute deviation estimators on the remaining data.
result Near-optimal error rates achieved for the Huber regression estimator.
Finite-time Identification of Stable Linear Systems: Optimality of the Least-Squares Estimatormath.ST
The OLS estimator optimally identifies stable linear systems with a finite number of samples.
problem Identifying stable linear systems with a finite number of samples.
method Finite-time analysis of the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimator for stable linear systems.
result The OLS estimator achieves optimal sample complexity for stable systems, matching existing lower bounds up to universal factors.
Estimates LATE using combined datasets, overcoming data limitations.
problem Estimating LATE when compliance is incomplete and data is split.
method Combines separately observed datasets to estimate LATE using direct and weighted least squares methods.
result Proposes a stable and practical estimator for LATE.
Rational Krigingstat.ME
New kriging method improves mean estimation and uncertainty.
problem Improving mean estimation and uncertainty in kriging.
method Proposes a rational kriging method using generalized least squares and Gaussian process.
result Generalized least squares estimate is more well-behaved than ordinary kriging.
We establish adaptive results for trend filtering: least squares estimation with a penalty on the total variation of order differences. Our approach is based on combining a general oracle inequality for the -penalized least squares estimator with "interpolating vectors" to upper-bound the "effe…
This paper reviews SDR methods for multivariate response regression.
problem Handling sufficient dimension reduction for multivariate response regression.
method Characterizes SDR estimators as inverse or forward regression methods.
result Pooled marginal, projective resampling, distance-based, ordinary least squares, partial least squares, and semiparametric SDR estimators are discussed.
We study risk of the minimum norm linear least squares estimator in when the number of parameters depends on , and . We assume that data has an underlying low rank structure by restricting ourselves to spike covariance matrices, where a fixed finite number of eigenvalues grow with…
Paper proposes robust LAD estimators for 2D sinusoidal model, proving consistency and normality.
problem Estimation of parameters in 2D sinusoidal models with outliers or heavy-tailed noise.
method Least absolute deviation (LAD) estimators for robust parameter estimation.
result Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of LAD estimators for 2D sinusoidal model parameters.
Investigates least squares estimation in deterministic MoE models.
problem Complexity and difficulty in analyzing MoE models.
method Least squares estimation under deterministic MoE models.
result Rates of estimating strongly identifiable experts are faster than polynomial experts.
A recently introduced Importance Sampling strategy based on a least squares optimization is applied to the Monte Carlo simulation of Libor Market Models. Such Least Squares Importance Sampling (LSIS) allows the automatic optimization of the sampling distribution within a trial class by means of a quick presimulation al…
This book introduces linear models and their theories rigorously.
problem Understanding linear models and their theories.
method Explains linear models from three perspectives, introduces maximum likelihood estimation, and proves least squares is the best unbiased linear model.
result Least squares is the best unbiased linear model in terms of mean squared error.
Bayesian method improves online NARMAX model identification.
problem Online identification of nonlinear systems with small sample sizes and low noise.
method Variational Bayesian inference using message passing algorithm for polynomial NARMAX models.
result Variational Bayesian estimator outperforms recursive and offline least-squares methods.
We analyze a simple prefiltered variation of the least squares estimator for the problem of estimation with biased, semi-parametric noise, an error model studied more broadly in causal statistics and active learning. We prove an oracle inequality which demonstrates that this procedure provably mitigates the variance in…
The paper proposes a least squares method for binary compressive sampling with low intrinsic dimension signals.
problem Recovering signals from binary measurements with noise and sign flips.
method Least squares decoder for signals with low generative intrinsic dimension.
result The least squares decoder achieves a sharp estimation error of under certain conditions.
Functional PLS improves prediction and inference for scalar responses from functional predictors.
problem Estimating scalar responses from functional predictors in an ill-posed inverse problem.
method Functional partial least squares (PLS) estimator with adaptive early stopping and new tests.
result PLS attains nearly minimax-optimal convergence rates and detects local alternatives.
Matrix factorization is a popular approach to solving matrix estimation problems based on partial observations. Existing matrix factorization is based on least squares and aims to yield a low-rank matrix to interpret the conditional sample means given the observations. However, in many real applications with skewed and…
New method for unbiased regression reduces excess risk.
problem Least squares regression with optimal solution and Hessian matrix.
method Averaged stochastic gradient descent with time-average estimator.
result Unbiased estimator with O(1/k) expected excess risk.
We consider least squares estimation in a general nonparametric regression model. The rate of convergence of the least squares estimator (LSE) for the unknown regression function is well studied when the errors are sub-Gaussian. We find upper bounds on the rates of convergence of the LSE when the errors have uniformly …
Proposes a new regression method using -norms for non-Gaussian noise.
problem Non-Gaussian noise in residuals affects the performance of local least squares regression.
method Introduces local polynomial -norm regression, replacing weighted least squares with weighted -norm estimation.
result Demonstrates superior performance over local least squares in one-dimensional data and higher dimensions.
Asymptotic Analysis of Sampling Estimators for Randomized Numerical Linear Algebra Algorithmsmath.ST
Develops asymptotic analysis for RandNLA sampling estimators in least-squares problems.
problem Lack of distributional information for RandNLA estimators in statistical inference.
method Asymptotic analysis of sampling estimators for least-squares problems in two settings.
result Sampling estimators are asymptotically normally distributed under mild conditions.
Estimates time-varying parameters from two OLS estimates.
problem Time-varying linear regression with hidden dynamics.
method Combines two OLS estimates for stable linear dynamics.
result Finite sample guarantee on estimation error.
Many problems in financial engineering involve the estimation of unknown conditional expectations across a time interval. Often Least Squares Monte Carlo techniques are used for the estimation. One method that can be combined with Least Squares Monte Carlo is the "Regress-Later" method. Unlike conventional methods wher…
Subsampling methods have been recently proposed to speed up least squares estimation in large scale settings. However, these algorithms are typically not robust to outliers or corruptions in the observed covariates. The concept of influence that was developed for regression diagnostics can be used to detect such corrup…
A fast sketching algorithm solves regularized least squares problems efficiently.
problem Solving large-scale optimization problems with convex or nonconvex regularization.
method Sketching for Regularized Optimization (SRO) algorithm that generates a sketch of the original data matrix and solves the sketched problem.
result General theoretical results for the approximation error between the original and sketched problems, including minimax rates for sparse signal estimation.
This paper studies statistical estimation in optional regression models.
problem Estimating parameters in regression models with optional semimartingale processes.
method Structural least squares (LS) estimates and their sequential versions.
result Strong consistency of LS-estimates and fixed accuracy of sequential LS-estimates.
The paper addresses model averaging and ensembling, providing theoretical and practical insights.
problem Combining least squares estimators from multiple candidate models for improved predictive accuracy.
method Establishes oracle inequalities for Mallows' criterion, proposes a novel Mallows-type MA procedure.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed Mallows-type MA estimator through numerical experiments.
CD converges linearly for MCP/SCAD penalized least squares.
problem Recovering sparse signals from data.
method Coordinate descent for MCP/SCAD penalized least squares.
result CD converges linearly to solutions of MCP/SCAD penalized least squares.
We develop efficient algorithms to estimate the stability of Ordinary Least Squares regression results.
problem Measuring the stability of regression conclusions in low dimensions.
method Efficient algorithms for estimating the minimum number of samples that need to be removed to change a regression conclusion.
result We can estimate stability up to a factor of 3 better than the greedy heuristic and certify stability even for dropping a majority of samples.
We provide a pointwise confidence bound for non-linear least-squares with fixed design.
problem Confidence estimation in non-linear -regularized least squares.
method Pointwise confidence bound for local minimizers, using weighted norm involving inverse-Hessian.
result The proposed confidence bound scales with the test input's similarity to the training data.
The resolution and calibration of pure spectra of minority components in measurements of chemical mixtures without prior knowledge of the mixture is a challenging problem. In this work, a combination of band target entropy minimization (BTEM) and target partial least squares (T-PLS) was used to obtain estimates for sin…
Bayesian system ID improves robustness to sparse, noisy data.
problem Robust system identification with sparse, noisy data.
method Probabilistic formulation of system identification using Bayesian posterior.
result The log posterior is more robust and less affected by multiple minima.
gKRLS accelerates KRLS estimation for complex models.
problem Limited flexibility and high computation for KRLS.
method Re-formulate KRLS as a hierarchical model and implement random sketching.
result gKRLS can fit models on large datasets in minutes.
Lecture notes on advanced linear regression methods.
problem Understanding the properties of linear regression estimators in high dimensions.
method Proposition-proof exploration of least squares, ridgeless, ridge, and lasso estimators.
result Detailed analysis of the existence, uniqueness, relations, computation, and non-asymptotic properties of these estimators.