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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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86172257343 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for least absolute error

Improved robust regression for heavy-tailed and contaminated data.

problem Linear regression with heavy-tailed and adversarially contaminated covariates and responses.
method Applying a filtering algorithm to covariates and then using Huber regression, least trimmed squares, or least absolute deviation estimators on the remaining data.
result Near-optimal error rates achieved for the Huber regression estimator.

SpinSVAR estimates SVAR models with sparse input, improving accuracy and scalability.

problem Estimating SVAR models with sparse input assumptions.
method SpinSVAR models input as independent Laplacian variables, enforcing sparsity and using least absolute error regression.
result SpinSVAR outperforms state-of-the-art methods in accuracy and runtime, identifying significant structural shocks.

Paper proposes robust LAD estimators for 2D sinusoidal model, proving consistency and normality.

problem Estimation of parameters in 2D sinusoidal models with outliers or heavy-tailed noise.
method Least absolute deviation (LAD) estimators for robust parameter estimation.
result Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of LAD estimators for 2D sinusoidal model parameters.

We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We show that universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimiza…

2015-06-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Optimal weight windows are symmetric rectangles centered at peak.

problem Finding the best weight windows for weighted least squares.
method Investigated symmetric and tapered rectangle window weights, showing the best rectangle window is optimal.
result The best rectangle window is optimal for all tapered rectangle window definitions.

Study compares machine learning algorithms for predicting SST in the Great Barrier Reef.

problem Predicting sea surface temperature in the Great Barrier Reef region.
method Ridge regression, LASSO, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithms were evaluated.
result XGBoost significantly outperforms other algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy and Kullback-Leibler Divergence.

The paper bounds the mean absolute error in DNN vector-to-vector regression.

problem Bounding the mean absolute error in deep neural network based vector-to-vector regression.
method Error decomposition techniques in statistical learning theory and non-convex optimization theory were used to derive upper bounds for approximation, estimation, and optimization errors.
result Theoretical upper bounds for mean absolute error in DNN vector-to-vector regression were derived and validated experimentally.

We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We prove the existence of an optimal MAPE model and we show the universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimization based on the MAPE. We also show that finding the best model under…

2016-05-09abs ↗pdf ↗

We have applied a Long Short-Term Memory neural network to model S&P 500 volatility, incorporating Google domestic trends as indicators of the public mood and macroeconomic factors. In a held-out test set, our Long Short-Term Memory model gives a mean absolute percentage error of 24.2%, outperforming linear Ridge/Lasso…

2015-12-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Due to the extremely volatile nature of financial markets, it is commonly accepted that stock price prediction is a task full of challenge. However in order to make profits or understand the essence of equity market, numerous market participants or researchers try to forecast stock price using various statistical, econ…

2018-05-29abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper studies curves in Finsler-like spaces and their properties.

problem Investigating properties of curves in asymmetric metric spaces induced by Finsler structures.
method Analyzes three types of absolutely continuous curves in Finsler-like spaces and establishes the Lisini structure theorem.
result Characterizes the nature of absolutely continuous curves in terms of dynamical transference plans.

Let G be a connected semisimple Lie group with at least one absolutely simple factor S such that R-rank(S) is at least 2, and let ΓΓ be a uniform lattice in G. (a) If CHCH holds, then ΓΓ has a unique asymptotic cone up to homeomorphism. (b) If CHCH fails, then ΓΓ has 22ω2^{2^ω} asymptotic cones up to homeomorphism.

2003-06-30abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper explores MAE as a loss function for DNN vector-to-vector regression, proving its advantages over MSE.

problem Improving loss function for deep neural network based vector-to-vector regression.
method Presenting performance bounds and new properties of MAE, deriving generalized upper bounds, and interpreting MAE as a Laplacian distribution.
result MAE is a more suitable loss function than MSE for DNN based vector-to-vector regression, especially when errors follow a Laplacian distribution.

Paper presents a novel approach to predict volatility using robust least squares method.

problem Challenges in predicting volatility due to irregularities, high fluctuations, and noise in financial time series.
method Robust least squares method applied in two approaches: with and without least absolute residuals (LAR).
result Robust least squares method with LAR approach yields better results for volatility and its components.

The study finds dense orbits and absolute period leaves for complex flows.

problem Existence of dense orbits for real Rel flows on holomorphic 1-forms.
method Established a density criterion for mSL(2,R){ m SL}(2,\mathbb{R})-orbit closures, verified using explicit constructions.
result Found dense leaves and examples of absolute period foliation.

The study sets limits on how well halfspaces can be learned when labels are corrupted.

problem Learning halfspaces in the presence of Massart noise.
method Statistical query (SQ) lower bounds.
result No SQ algorithm can achieve misclassification error better than the corruption rate ηη with superpolynomial accuracy or a superpolynomial number of queries.

Regularized approaches have been successfully applied to linear system identification in recent years. Many of them model unknown impulse responses exploiting the so called Reproducing Kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) that enjoy the notable property of being in one-to-one correspondence with the class of positive semidefi…

2019-09-05abs ↗pdf ↗

The "least absolute shrinkage and selection operator" (Lasso) method has been adapted recently for networkstructured datasets. In particular, this network Lasso method allows to learn graph signals from a small number of noisy signal samples by using the total variation of a graph signal for regularization. While effic…

2017-04-07abs ↗pdf ↗

New method improves stock return prediction in non-stationary markets.

problem Tackles the challenge of predicting stock returns in non-stationary environments.
method Jointly optimizes model class and training window size using a tournament procedure.
result Consistently outperforms standard benchmarks by 14-23% in out-of-sample R2R^2.

LALR adapts learning rate for faster convergence in regression and neural nets.

problem Finding optimal learning rates for faster convergence in regression and neural networks.
method Lipschitz continuity theory applied to Mean Absolute Error and Quantile loss functions.
result Adaptive learning rate policy enables up to 20x faster convergence.

Cross-validation pitfalls in change-point regression are addressed with new approaches.

problem Cross-validation's prediction error-based criterion may lead to under- or over-estimation of change-points.
method Proposes two approaches: absolute error loss and modified holdout sets.
result Consistent estimation of the number of change-points under certain conditions.

Optimal stock price prediction model using recurrent neural networks with RMSprop optimizer.

problem Stock price prediction using neural networks.
method Comparison of fully connected, convolutional, and recurrent architectures; inclusion of three optimization techniques.
result Single layer recurrent neural network with RMSprop optimizer produces optimal results with validation and test MAE of 0.0150 and 0.0148 respectively.

Paper proposes a new metric to evaluate survival models, especially for censored data.

problem Challenges in evaluating survival prediction models due to censored data.
method Developed a novel approach to estimate Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for survival datasets with censored data.
result The proposed MAE metric using pseudo-observations accurately ranks model performance and closely matches true MAE.

Enhances RSCNs with hybrid regularization for nonlinear dynamics.

problem Modeling nonlinear dynamic systems with uncertainties.
method Recurrent stochastic configuration networks with hybrid regularization.
result The method outperforms other models in nonlinear system identification and industrial tasks.

We present reconstruction algorithms for smooth signals with block sparsity from their compressed measurements. We tackle the issue of varying group size via group-sparse least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) as well as via latent group LASSO regularizations. We achieve smoothness in the signal via fusion…

2013-09-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Let (M,I,J,K)(M,I,J,K) be a hyperkahler manifold, and Z(M,I)Z\subset (M,I) a complex subvariety in (M,I)(M,I). We say that ZZ is trianalytic if it is complex analytic with respect to JJ and KK, and absolutely trianalytic if it is trianalytic with respect to any hyperkähler triple of complex structures (M,I,J,K)(M,I,J',K') containing II

2014-09-03abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper examines prediction and estimation risks of ridgeless least squares under general error assumptions.

problem Prediction and estimation risks of ridgeless least squares under realistic error structures.
method Analysis of prediction and estimation risks under general regression error assumptions, including clustered or serial dependence.
result The benefits of overparameterization extend to time series, panel, and grouped data.

The paper optimizes asset selection for index trackers and enhanced trackers with varying cardinality constraints.

problem Optimizing asset selection for index trackers and enhanced trackers with cardinality constraints.
method Divided into two steps: asset pre-selection and asset weight estimation. Used eight pre-selection procedures with different combinations of selection methods and regression types.
result Out-of-sample tracking errors are roughly proportional to 1/sqrt(cardinality). OLS is more effective than LAD, BE marginally more effective than FS, and (n) marginally more effective than (c).

Model predicts viscosity of multicomponent systems efficiently.

problem Expensive experimental viscosity measurements in various industries.
method Artificial neural networks trained on a database of chemical systems and temperatures.
result Model Viskositas provides more accurate predictions with lower errors, variability, and outliers.

This paper achieves optimal regret bounds for locally private linear contextual bandit.

problem Designing locally private linear contextual bandit algorithms with optimal regret bounds.
method New algorithmic and analytical ideas, including mean absolute deviation analysis and layered principal component regression.
result Achieves an ildeO(T) ilde O(\sqrt{T}) regret upper bound for locally private linear contextual bandit.

Neural network training process takes long time when the size of training data is huge, without the large set of training values the neural network is unable to learn features. This dilemma between time and size of data is often solved using fast GPUs, but we present a better solution for a subset of those problems. To…

2018-09-30abs ↗pdf ↗