A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Improved robust regression for heavy-tailed and contaminated data.
problem Linear regression with heavy-tailed and adversarially contaminated covariates and responses.
method Applying a filtering algorithm to covariates and then using Huber regression, least trimmed squares, or least absolute deviation estimators on the remaining data.
result Near-optimal error rates achieved for the Huber regression estimator.
In this paper, we consider complete non-catenoidal minimal surfaces of finite total curvature with two ends. A family of such minimal surfaces with least total absolute curvature is given. Moreover, we obtain a uniqueness theorem for this family from its symmetries.
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We show that universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimiza…
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We also show that, under some asumptions, universal consisten…
The paper bounds the mean absolute error in DNN vector-to-vector regression.
problem Bounding the mean absolute error in deep neural network based vector-to-vector regression.
method Error decomposition techniques in statistical learning theory and non-convex optimization theory were used to derive upper bounds for approximation, estimation, and optimization errors.
result Theoretical upper bounds for mean absolute error in DNN vector-to-vector regression were derived and validated experimentally.
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We prove the existence of an optimal MAPE model and we show the universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimization based on the MAPE. We also show that finding the best model under…
We have applied a Long Short-Term Memory neural network to model S&P 500 volatility, incorporating Google domestic trends as indicators of the public mood and macroeconomic factors. In a held-out test set, our Long Short-Term Memory model gives a mean absolute percentage error of 24.2%, outperforming linear Ridge/Lasso…
Due to the extremely volatile nature of financial markets, it is commonly accepted that stock price prediction is a task full of challenge. However in order to make profits or understand the essence of equity market, numerous market participants or researchers try to forecast stock price using various statistical, econ…
Let G be a connected semisimple Lie group with at least one absolutely simple factor S such that R-rank(S) is at least 2, and let Γ be a uniform lattice in G. (a) If CH holds, then Γ has a unique asymptotic cone up to homeomorphism. (b) If CH fails, then Γ has 22ω asymptotic cones up to homeomorphism.
The paper explores MAE as a loss function for DNN vector-to-vector regression, proving its advantages over MSE.
problem Improving loss function for deep neural network based vector-to-vector regression.
method Presenting performance bounds and new properties of MAE, deriving generalized upper bounds, and interpreting MAE as a Laplacian distribution.
result MAE is a more suitable loss function than MSE for DNN based vector-to-vector regression, especially when errors follow a Laplacian distribution.
This paper models yearly exchange rates between USD/KZT, EUR/KZT and SGD/KZT, and compares the actual data with developed forecasts using time series analysis over the period from 2006 to 2014. The official yearly data of National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan is used for present study. The main goal of this paper…
The importance of Einstein's geometrization philosophy, as an alternative to the least action principle, in constructing general relativity (GR), is illuminated. The role of differential identities in this philosophy is clarified. The use of Bianchi identity to write the field equations of GR is shown. Another similar …
The study sets limits on how well halfspaces can be learned when labels are corrupted.
problem Learning halfspaces in the presence of Massart noise.
method Statistical query (SQ) lower bounds.
result No SQ algorithm can achieve misclassification error better than the corruption rate η with superpolynomial accuracy or a superpolynomial number of queries.
Regularized approaches have been successfully applied to linear system identification in recent years. Many of them model unknown impulse responses exploiting the so called Reproducing Kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) that enjoy the notable property of being in one-to-one correspondence with the class of positive semidefi…
The "least absolute shrinkage and selection operator" (Lasso) method has been adapted recently for networkstructured datasets. In particular, this network Lasso method allows to learn graph signals from a small number of noisy signal samples by using the total variation of a graph signal for regularization. While effic…
Understanding efficiency in high dimensional linear models is a longstanding problem of interest. Classical work with smaller dimensional problems dating back to Huber and Bickel has illustrated the benefits of efficient loss functions. When the number of parameters p is of the same order as the sample size n, $p \…
Optimal stock price prediction model using recurrent neural networks with RMSprop optimizer.
problem Stock price prediction using neural networks.
method Comparison of fully connected, convolutional, and recurrent architectures; inclusion of three optimization techniques.
result Single layer recurrent neural network with RMSprop optimizer produces optimal results with validation and test MAE of 0.0150 and 0.0148 respectively.
We present reconstruction algorithms for smooth signals with block sparsity from their compressed measurements. We tackle the issue of varying group size via group-sparse least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) as well as via latent group LASSO regularizations. We achieve smoothness in the signal via fusion…
Let (M,I,J,K) be a hyperkahler manifold, and Z⊂(M,I) a complex subvariety in (M,I). We say that Z is trianalytic if it is complex analytic with respect to J and K, and absolutely trianalytic if it is trianalytic with respect to any hyperkähler triple of complex structures (M,I,J′,K′) containing I…
This paper presents the hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) for loss reserving in a non-life insurance company. Because in this case the error of prediction is expressed by a complex analytical formula, the error bootstrap estimator is proposed instead. Moreover, the bootstrap procedure is used to obtain full …
We prove that every homomorphism from the elementary Chevalley group over a finitely generated unital commutative ring associated with reduced irreducible classical root system of rank at least 2, and ME analogues of such groups, into acylindrically hyperbolic groups has an absolutely elliptic image. This result provid…
Variable selection in linear models plays a pivotal role in modern statistics. Hard-thresholding methods such as l0 regularization are theoretically ideal but computationally infeasible. In this paper, we propose a new approach, called the LAGS, short for "least absulute gradient selector", to this challenging yet i…
The paper optimizes asset selection for index trackers and enhanced trackers with varying cardinality constraints.
problem Optimizing asset selection for index trackers and enhanced trackers with cardinality constraints.
method Divided into two steps: asset pre-selection and asset weight estimation. Used eight pre-selection procedures with different combinations of selection methods and regression types.
result Out-of-sample tracking errors are roughly proportional to 1/sqrt(cardinality). OLS is more effective than LAD, BE marginally more effective than FS, and (n) marginally more effective than (c).
Neural network training process takes long time when the size of training data is huge, without the large set of training values the neural network is unable to learn features. This dilemma between time and size of data is often solved using fast GPUs, but we present a better solution for a subset of those problems. To…