Law of iterated logarithm derived from betting strategy.
problem Deriving the law of the iterated logarithm.
method Using a betting strategy's wealth guarantee.
result Law of the iterated logarithm established.
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48 results for “law of the iterated logarithm”
This paper tightens the law of the iterated logarithm for empirical KL_inf, applicable to unbounded data.
problem Developing nonasymptotic concentration bounds for empirical KL_inf with optimal constants and rates.
method Presenting a tight law of the iterated logarithm for empirical KL_inf, applicable to unbounded data.
result A tight law of the iterated logarithm for empirical KL_inf, applicable to unbounded data.
We give concentration bounds for martingales that are uniform over finite times and extend classical Hoeffding and Bernstein inequalities. We also demonstrate our concentration bounds to be optimal with a matching anti-concentration inequality, proved using the same method. Together these constitute a finite-time versi…
Deviation inequalities and limit laws for random walks on metric spaces.
problem Understanding random walks on metric spaces with contracting isometries.
method Adapting Gouëzel's pivotal time construction to establish deviation inequalities.
result Exponential bounds and limit laws for random walks on mapping class groups and CAT(0) spaces.
The paper studies reward concentration in MDPs, covering asymptotic and non-asymptotic settings.
problem Reward concentration in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs).
method Unified approach to reward concentration in MDPs, including asymptotic and non-asymptotic bounds.
result Rate-equivalent definitions of regret for learning policies.
New algorithm achieves logarithmic regret for adversarial online control.
problem Online linear-quadratic control in systems with adversarial disturbances.
method Characterization of optimal offline control law, reduced to online learning with approximate advantage functions.
result First algorithm with logarithmic regret for arbitrary adversarial disturbance sequences.
We propose a new algorithmic framework for sequential hypothesis testing with i.i.d. data, which includes A/B testing, nonparametric two-sample testing, and independence testing as special cases. It is novel in several ways: (a) it takes linear time and constant space to compute on the fly, (b) it has the same power gu…
We show that Masur's logarithmic law of geodesics in the moduli space of translation surfaces does not imply unique ergodicity of the translation flow, but that a similar law involving the flat systole of a Teichmüller geodesic does imply unique ergodicity. It shows that the flat geometry has a better control on ergodi…
Ultrametric Logarithm Laws Imath.GT
We announce ultrametric analogues of the results of Kleinbock-Margulis for shrinking target properties of semisimple group actions on symmetric spaces. The main applications are S-arithmetic Diophantine approximation results and logarithm laws for buildings, generalizing the work of Hersonsky-Paulin on trees.
Geodesics spiral around compact subsets in CAT(0) spaces.
problem Understanding geodesic spiraling in CAT(0) spaces.
method Logarithm law-type result for geodesics in quotients of rank one CAT(0) spaces.
result Proved logarithm law for geodesic spiraling in certain CAT(0) spaces.
The study of random walks on hyperbolic spaces and Teichmüller spaces, proving central limit theorems and geodesic tracking.
problem Analyzing random walks on hyperbolic and Teichmüller spaces.
method Proving central limit theorems and geodesic tracking using finite moments and logarithmic moments.
result Translation lengths of random isometries satisfy a central limit theorem if and only if the random walk has finite second moment.
The study improves bounds on the number of closed geodesics and logarithmic improvements in the Weyl law.
problem Estimating the number of closed geodesics and improving logarithmic bounds in the Weyl law.
method Study of non-degeneracy properties of nearly closed orbits for predominant sets of metrics.
result Logarithmic improvements in the Weyl law and exponential bounds on the number of closed geodesics.
We study the market selection hypothesis in complete financial markets, populated by heterogeneous agents. We allow for a rich structure of heterogeneity: individuals may differ in their beliefs concerning the economy, information and learning mechanism, risk aversion, impatience and 'catching up with Joneses' preferen…
This paper gives a new definition of the Contou-Carrere symbol in terms of an exponential of a Chen iterated integral and proves the corresponding reciprocity law.
Iterative method 'Concent' corrects spectrum bias in covariance matrices.
problem Consistent bias in the spectrum of covariance matrices.
method 'Concent' iterative algorithm.
result Corrects spectrum bias for small and moderate dimensions.
Finite-Time Queue Peak Laws in Stochastic Networks: Logarithmic Scaling After Geometric Thresholdsmath.PR
Finite-time queue peaks in stochastic networks have logarithmic scaling after geometric thresholds.
problem Queue peak laws in stochastic networks with geometric thresholds.
method Self-normalization mechanism
result Logarithmic scaling of queue peaks after geometric thresholds.
Let be a pinched negatively curved Riemannian manifold, whose unit tangent bundle is endowed with a Gibbs measure associated to a potential . We compute the Hausdorff dimension of the conditional measures of . We study the -almost sure asymptotic penetration behaviour of locally geodesic lines of…
New framework for logarithmically divergent integrals on manifolds with corners.
problem Logarithmically divergent integrals on manifolds with corners.
method Introduces new geometric framework and morphisms in logarithmic geometry.
result Functorial characterization of regularized integration.
Paper analyzes solutions to quasilinear elliptic equations on manifolds using Nash-Moser iteration.
problem Analyzing positive solutions to quasilinear elliptic equations on manifolds with bounded Ricci curvature.
method Employing Nash-Moser iteration technique to derive logarithmic gradient estimates and Liouville properties.
result Derives universal logarithmic gradient estimates for positive solutions under certain conditions.
Based on the order flow data of a stock and its warrant, the immediate price impacts of market orders are estimated by two competitive models, the power-law model (PL model) and the logarithmic model (LG model). We find that the PL model is overwhelmingly superior to the LG model, regarding the robustness of the estima…
In the spirit of the emergent field of econophysics, a goodness-of-fit test for the Power-Law distribution, based on the Empirical Distribution Function (EDF) is presented, and related problems are discussed. An analysis of the tail behaviour of the daily logarithmic variation of the Mexican Stock Market Index (IPC), s…
Logarithmic corrections to Price's law near black hole event horizon.
problem Failure of smooth null infinity in black hole spacetimes.
method Analyzing linear wave equation on Schwarzschild background with specific initial conditions.
result Leading-order asymptotics of solutions near future null infinity and event horizon are logarithmically modified.
Critical volatility triggers log-normal to power-law transitions in interconnected systems.
problem Understanding the transition from log-normal to power-law distributions in interconnected systems.
method Analyzing an infinite option-on-option chain model, deriving a critical volatility threshold.
result A critical volatility threshold of approximately 250.66% for unconditional cases, dropping to 125.3% with selective survival.
Study on estimating unstable open-loop matrices from state trajectories.
problem System identification for stochastic continuous-time dynamics.
method Employing randomized control inputs to estimate unstable open-loop matrix.
result Estimation error decays with trajectory length, signal-to-noise ratio, and excitability.
The paper analyzes convergence rates for stochastic approximation and reinforcement learning.
problem Establishing almost sure convergence rates for stochastic approximation and reinforcement learning under Markovian noise.
method A novel Lyapunov drift construction that applies a Poisson-equation based correction for Markovian noise to the Moreau-envelope smoothing for contractive mappings.
result Almost sure convergence rates for specific learning rates are derived, with rates arbitrarily close to and .
Benford's law states that in data sets from different phenomena leading digits tend to be distributed logarithmically such that the numbers beginning with smaller digits occur more often than those with larger ones. Particularly, the law is known to hold for different types of financial data. The Illicit Financial Flow…
We consider applications of the theory of balanced weight filtrations and iterated logarithms, initiated in arXiv:1706.01073, to PDEs. The main result is a complete description of the asymptotics of the Yang--Mills flow on the space of metrics on a holomorphic bundle over a Riemann surface. A key ingredient in the argu…
The paper proposes a novel upper confidence bound (UCB) procedure for identifying the arm with the largest mean in a multi-armed bandit game in the fixed confidence setting using a small number of total samples. The procedure cannot be improved in the sense that the number of samples required to identify the best arm i…
Paper shows how online betting algorithms' regret can be used to create tight confidence sequences.
problem Estimating the expectation of random variables from samples and creating time-uniform confidence sequences.
method Converts the regret guarantee of universal portfolio algorithms into time-uniform concentration inequalities and confidence sequences.
result Numerically obtained confidence sequences are never vacuous and satisfy the law of iterated logarithm.
Simple arbitrageq-fin.PR
We characterize absence of arbitrage with simple trading strategies in a discounted market with a constant bond and several risky assets. We show that if there is a simple arbitrage, then there is a 0-admissible one or an obvious one, that is, a simple arbitrage which promises a minimal riskless gain of ε, if the inves…
Dynamics of the Number of Trades of Financial Securitiescond-mat.stat-mech
We perform a parallel analysis of the spectral density of (i) the logarithm of price and (ii) the daily number of trades of a set of stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange. The stocks are selected to be representative of a wide range of stock capitalization. The observed spectral densities show a different power-…
We present a new method to solve certain -equations for logarithmic differential forms by using harmonic integral theory for currents on Kahler manifolds. The result can be considered as a -lemma for logarithmic forms. As applications, we generalize the result of Deligne about closedness…
The aim of this paper is to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) of the portfolio consisting of long positions in foreign currencies on an emerging market. Basing on empirical data we restrict ourselves to the case when the tail parts of distributions of logarithmic returns of these assets follow the power laws and the lo…
Sequential estimation of quantiles with applications to A/B-testing and best-arm identificationmath.ST
We propose confidence sequences -- sequences of confidence intervals which are valid uniformly over time -- for quantiles of any distribution over a complete, fully-ordered set, based on a stream of i.i.d. observations. We give methods both for tracking a fixed quantile and for tracking all quantiles simultaneously. Sp…
Study predicts NFT bubbles using LPPL model.
problem Tackles bubble prediction of NFTs.
method Applied logarithmic periodic power law (LPPL) model to NFT price data.
result NFTs, Decentraland, and ArtBlocks are in bubbles, while Ethereum Name Service is in a negative bubble.
Given for instance a finite volume negatively curved Riemannian manifold , we give a precise relation between the logarithmic growth rates of the excursions into cusps neighborhoods of the strong unstable leaves of negatively recurrent unit vectors of and their linear divergence rates under the geodesic flow. As…
New Weyl's laws discovered for compact spaces with Ricci curvature bounds.
problem Understanding growth rates of eigenvalues in compact spaces with Ricci curvature constraints.
method Developed new properties of -Grushin halfplanes and analyzed singular sets of null capacities.
result Established Weyl's laws with power growth and logarithmic corrections for compact spaces.
Power Laws are Boltzmann Laws in Disguisecond-mat.stat-mech
Using a model based on generalised Lotka Volterra dynamics together with some recent results for the solution of generalised Langevin equations, we show that the equilibrium solution for the probability distribution of wealth has two characteristic regimes. For large values of wealth it takes the form of a Pareto style…
Asymptotic properties of one-layer artificial neural networks with sparse connectivitycond-mat.dis-nn
Law derived for neural networks with sparse connections.
problem Understanding the behavior of neural networks with sparse connections.
method Law of large numbers for empirical distribution of parameters derived.
result Law for neural networks with sparse connections derived.
The study explains transformer scaling laws using statistical and approximation theories.
problem Understanding why transformer scaling laws exist for large models trained on low-dimensional data.
method Established statistical estimation and mathematical approximation theories for transformers on low-dimensional manifolds.
result Predicted a power law between generalization error and model and data sizes, with power depending on intrinsic data dimension.
An equation for the evolution of the distribution of wealth in a population of economic agents making binary transactions with a constant total amount of "money" has recently been proposed by one of us (RLR). This equation takes the form of an iterated nonlinear map of the distribution of wealth. The equilibrium distri…
Taylor's law of temporal fluctuation scaling, variance mean, is ubiquitous in natural and social sciences. We report for the first time convincing evidence of a solid temporal fluctuation scaling law in stock illiquidity by investigating the mean-variance relationship of the high-frequency illiquidity o…
Logarithmic-time schedules boost large-scale language model training efficiency.
problem Improving performance and efficiency in large-scale language model training.
method Designing time-varying hyperparameters for AdamW, specifically logarithmic-time scheduling with damping mechanisms.
result ADANA optimizer achieves up to 40% compute efficiency compared to tuned AdamW, with gains persisting as model scale increases.
A new algorithm solves semidefinite programs using Langevin diffusion.
problem Optimizing semidefinite programs with diagonal constraints.
method Langevin diffusion on a product manifold of spheres.
result Langevin algorithm achieves ε accuracy in Ω(ε^-5) iterations.
Logarithmic regret strategies for safe multi-armed bandits with safety risk constraints.
problem Maximizing reward while avoiding unsafe arms under safety risk constraints.
method Doubly optimistic strategies with pseudo-regret formulation.
result Logarithmic regret bounds for safe multi-armed bandits.
Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progressphysics.soc-ph
Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumul…
Informed trading, limit order book and implementation shortfall: equilibrium and asymptoticsq-fin.TR
Modeling trading behavior with information signals and limit order books, showing market impact and equilibrium properties.
problem Analyzing the impact of information signals on trading behavior and market equilibrium in limit order books.
method Static equilibrium model with profit-maximizing investors and competitive dealers, using iterative algorithms and asymptotic analysis.
result The market impact of large trades follows a power law with fat tails and a logarithmic law with lighter tails, and the order book flattens as noise trading increases.
Dynamics of the Warsaw Stock Exchange index as analysed by the nonhomogeneous fractional relaxation equationphysics.soc-ph
We analyse the dynamics of the Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG at a daily time horizon before and after its well defined local maxima of the cusp-like shape decorated with oscillations. The rising and falling paths of the index peaks can be described by the Mittag-Leffler function superposed with various types of oscil…