PHBench predicts Series A funding from Product Hunt launch signals with 7.8% accuracy.
problem Predicting startup Series A funding from launch signals on Product Hunt.
method Constructed PHBench from 67,292 Product Hunt posts, linked to funding records, and used a three-component ensemble model.
result Best-performing model achieved F0.5 = 0.097 and AP = 0.037, with a statistically significant advantage over logistic regression.
CDLF predicts product life-cycles in cold-start phases with high accuracy.
problem Forecasting new products in early phases when data is scarce.
method Conditional Diffusion Life-cycle Forecaster (CDLF) combining static descriptors, reference trajectories, and new observations.
result CDLF outperforms classical models in accuracy and probabilistic forecasting.
Backtests of structured strategies lose much of their predictive power in live trading.
problem Uncertainty in how marketed backtests predict live performance of structured strategies.
method Analysis of 1,726 structured strategies from ten global institutions.
result Raw backtests have limited portability into live trading and deteriorate sharply.
Study identifies 1,012 persistent wallet cohorts on Solana pump.fun, showing coordinated buying behavior.
problem Understanding coordinated buying behavior on Solana pump.fun.
method Two-stage detection pipeline: first-buyer-window extraction followed by persistent-cohort surfacing via graph co-occurrence.
result 1,012 persistent wallet cohorts identified, showing systematic co-buying across multiple launches.
Survival analysis of 832,941 Solana token launches shows a significant decline in graduation rate.
problem Analyzing the survival rate of Solana token launches and identifying factors affecting graduation.
method Survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazards models.
result The survival rate of Solana token launches has declined significantly, with a 3.18x decrease from previous rates.
ChatGPT launch boosted AI-related crypto assets by 10.7% to 15.6%.
problem Investor perception of AI assets after ChatGPT launch.
method Synthetic difference-in-difference methodology.
result AI-related crypto assets experienced significant returns after ChatGPT launch.
Improved anomaly detection for launch vehicle propulsion systems using LSTM and statistical relabeling.
problem Detecting anomalies in real-time telemetry data for launch vehicles.
method Utilized LSTM networks for anomaly classification, introduced a statistical detector based on Mahalanobis distance and forward-backward detection fractions to adjust training labels.
result Precision and recall of the LSTM classifier improved by 7% and 22% respectively after statistical relabeling.
Study predicts success of crypto-tokens on Pump.fun platform.
problem Identify factors affecting the success of new crypto-tokens.
method Build predictive models using bonding curve mechanism and structural/behavioral variables.
result Conditional variables significantly improve the predictive power of token success.
Illegal insider trading of stocks is based on releasing non-public information (e.g., new product launch, quarterly financial report, acquisition or merger plan) before the information is made public. Detecting illegal insider trading is difficult due to the complex, nonlinear, and non-stationary nature of the stock ma…
Adversarial attacks have exposed a significant security vulnerability in state-of-the-art machine learning models. Among these models include deep reinforcement learning agents. The existing methods for attacking reinforcement learning agents assume the adversary either has access to the target agent's learned paramete…
We experimentally achieve a 19% capacity gain per Watt of electrical supply power in a 12-span link by eliminating gain flattening filters and optimizing launch powers using machine learning by deep neural networks in a massively parallel fiber context.
Motivated by the phenomenon that companies introduce new products to keep abreast with customers' rapidly changing tastes, we consider a novel online learning setting where a profit-maximizing seller needs to learn customers' preferences through offering recommendations, which may contain existing products and new prod…
We study a class of fully nonlinear elliptic equations on closed Hermitian manifolds. We derive C∞ {\em a priori} estimates, and then prove the existence of admissible solutions. In the approach, a new Hermitian metic is constructed to launch the method of continuity.
We describe a new public-domain open-source simulator of an electronic financial exchange, and of the traders that interact with the exchange, which is a truly distributed and cloud-native system that been designed to run on widely available commercial cloud-computing services, and in which various components can be pl…
Adversaries can fool deep learning modulator classifiers over wireless channels.
problem Vulnerability of deep learning modulator classifiers to adversarial attacks over wireless channels.
method Presented various adversarial attacks considering channel effects, including targeted and non-targeted attacks, and a universal adversarial perturbation attack.
result Modulation classification is vulnerable to adversarial attacks over wireless channels with realistic channel effects.
The democratization of machine learning (ML) has led to ML-based machine vision systems for autonomous driving, traffic monitoring, and video surveillance. However, true democratization cannot be achieved without greatly simplifying the process of collecting groundtruth for training and testing these systems. This grou…
Models applied on real time response task, like click-through rate (CTR) prediction model, require high accuracy and rigorous response time. Therefore, top-performing deep models of high depth and complexity are not well suited for these applications with the limitations on the inference time. In order to further impro…
On 2 November 2009, the Financial Bubble Experiment was launched within the Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) at ETH Zurich (\url{http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/}). In that initial report, we diagnosed and announced three bubbles on three different assets. In this latest release of 23 December 2009 in this ongoing experime…
An adversarial machine learning approach is introduced to launch jamming attacks on wireless communications and a defense strategy is presented. A cognitive transmitter uses a pre-trained classifier to predict the current channel status based on recent sensing results and decides whether to transmit or not, whereas a j…
The paper analyzes the pricing of a new compute futures asset.
problem Uncertainty in AI adoption and pricing of compute capital.
method An asset-pricing framework for compute futures, including synthetic futures pricing.
result Preliminary evidence suggests a positive compute risk premium.
We introduce a new dataset of 293,008 high definition (1360 x 1360 pixels) fashion images paired with item descriptions provided by professional stylists. Each item is photographed from a variety of angles. We provide baseline results on 1) high-resolution image generation, and 2) image generation conditioned on the gi…
We use a control framework to analyze the digital vendor's profit maximization problem. The vendor captures market share by focusing costly effort on post-launch product maintenance, which influences user perception of the product and drives a revenue stream associated with product use. Our theoretical results show nec…
New Roman pipeline detects astronomical transients.
problem Automated detection of transients from Roman Space Telescope data.
method Machine learning model RuBR for distinguishing real from fake detections.
result Effective real-bogus classification in Roman era.
Framework for AI healthcare products from concept to market.
problem Failure of AI products to reach clinics despite promising potential.
method Decision-making framework for AI healthcare product development.
result Guides through a three-phase process to market launch of validated AI products.
As online systems based on machine learning are offered to public or paid subscribers via application programming interfaces (APIs), they become vulnerable to frequent exploits and attacks. This paper studies adversarial machine learning in the practical case when there are rate limitations on API calls. The adversary …
In this work we simulate null geodesics for the Bonnor massive dipole metric by implementing a symbolic-numerical algorithm in Sage and Python. This program is also capable of visualizing in 3D, in principle, the geodesics for any given metric. Geodesics are launched from a common point, collectively forming a cone of …
Examines insurance market development and similarity post-2004 EU enlargement.
problem Comparing insurance markets of EU old and new members post-enlargement.
method Analyzes data from 2004 to present to compare insurance markets.
result Identifies similarities and differences in insurance markets post-2004 enlargement.
This paper addresses detection of a reverse engineering (RE) attack targeting a deep neural network (DNN) image classifier; by querying, RE's aim is to discover the classifier's decision rule. RE can enable test-time evasion attacks, which require knowledge of the classifier. Recently, we proposed a quite effective app…
There are many fundamental algorithmic problems on triangulated 3-manifolds whose complexities are unknown. Here we study the problem of finding a taut angle structure on a 3-manifold triangulation, whose existence has implications for both the geometry and combinatorics of the triangulation. We prove that detecting ta…
The paper improves A/B testing for non-Gaussian data, ensuring reliable results with large sample sizes.
problem Inaccurate A/B testing results due to non-normal data and unequal sample sizes.
method Derives explicit formulas for minimum sample size and introduces an Edgeworth-based correction.
result Corrected method improves reliability of A/B testing in real-world conditions.
We utilize the symmetric thermal optimal path (TOPS) method to examine the dynamic interaction patterns between the VIX and VIX futures markets. We document that the VIX dominates the VIX futures more in the first few years, especially before the introduction of VIX options. We further observe that the TOPS paths show …
Efficient method defends privacy in federated learning without accuracy loss.
problem Privacy attacks on federated learning by reconstructing and identifying local data.
method Random noise perturbation method that allows recovery of true gradients.
result Strong privacy protection without sacrificing learning accuracy.
This paper investigates the effects of the launch of Bitcoin futures on the intraday volatility of Bitcoin. Based on one-minute price data collected from four cryptocurrency exchanges, we first examine the change in realized volatility after the introduction of Bitcoin futures to investigate their aggregate effects on …
A new model predicts fashion demand 6-12 months ahead, boosting retailer profits.
problem Accurate demand forecasting for fashion retailers with short product life cycles.
method Product age-based forecast model, incorporating unique feature engineering.
result Significant revenue uplift of 41% compared to retailer's plan.
Cryptocurrencies use blockchain tech for secure transactions, offering new research opportunities.
problem Misunderstanding of cryptocurrency technology and lack of empirical data.
method Analyzing detailed transaction data and summarizing statistics.
result Opportunity for academic research in financial economics.
In this paper, an unsupervised machine learning method for geometric constellation shaping is investigated. By embedding a differentiable fiber channel model within two neural networks, the learning algorithm is optimizing for a geometric constellation shape. The learned constellations yield improved performance to sta…
The Langlands Program was launched in the late 60s with the goal of relating Galois representations and automorphic forms. In recent years a geometric version has been developed which leads to a mysterious duality between certain categories of sheaves on moduli spaces of (flat) bundles on algebraic curves. Three years …
Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) launched in 1997 the model CreditRisk+ which aims at calculating the loss distribution of a credit portfolio on the basis of a methodology from actuarial mathematics. Knowing the loss distribution, it is possible to determine quantile-based values-at-risk (VaRs) for the portfolio. An o…
In many scenarios of a language identification task, the user will specify a small set of languages which he/she can speak instead of a large set of all possible languages. We want to model such prior knowledge into the way we train our neural networks, by replacing the commonly used softmax loss function with a novel …
Regulated Bitcoin futures led to higher volatility and trading volume.
problem Estimating the impact of regulated Bitcoin futures on volatility and volume.
method Employed a new causal approach, C-ARIMA.
result Regulated Bitcoin futures increased Bitcoin volatility by more than double.
A new algorithm speeds up elliptical slice sampling for truncated multivariate normals.
problem Efficiently sampling from truncated multivariate normal distributions with linear constraints.
method Adapting elliptical slice sampling to linearly truncated multivariate normals, with an algorithm for ellipse-polytope intersection in O(m log m) time.
result The algorithm enhances numerical stability, speeds up running time, and is easy to parallelize.
Satellite imaging is a critical technology for monitoring and responding to natural disasters such as flooding. Despite the capabilities of modern satellites, there is still much to be desired from the perspective of first response organisations like UNICEF. Two main challenges are rapid access to data, and the ability…
This paper investigates a class of attacks targeting the confidentiality aspect of security in Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) policies. Recent research have established the vulnerability of supervised machine learning models (e.g., classifiers) to model extraction attacks. Such attacks leverage the loosely-restricte…
Prediction markets can be manipulated by traders who can move contract settlements, harming price discovery.
problem Manipulation of settlement times in prediction markets leads to unfair wealth transfer and harms price discovery.
method Developed a model showing how settlement manipulation transfers wealth and harms price discovery, and observed real-world effects on Polymarket's Bitcoin contract.
result Manipulators capture significant profits from retail traders, especially when settlement times are short.
Complete gradient Einstein-type Sasakian manifolds with α=0 are trivial or isometric to the unit sphere.
problem Characterizing complete gradient Einstein-type Sasakian manifolds with α=0.
method Unified framework of Einstein-type manifolds characterized by four constants α, β, μ, and ρ.
result Complete gradient Einstein-type Sasakian manifolds with α=0 are trivial or isometric to the unit sphere.
India's tax on crypto income sparks debate on its future.
problem Impact of 30% tax on Indian crypto market.
method Discussion of various opinions and predictions.
result Uncertainty about crypto's future in India.
By mid 2004, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) is epected to launch its final recommendations on minimum capital requirements in the banking industry. Although there is the intention to arrive at capital charges which concur with economic intuition, the risk weight formulas proposed by the committee wil…
Hypersolvers enable fast continuous-depth models for practical applications.
problem Infinite-depth models like Neural ODEs are computationally infeasible for large problems.
method Introducing hypersolvers, neural networks that solve ODEs efficiently with theoretical guarantees.
result Hypersolvers achieve comparable inference time to traditional discrete networks, making continuous-depth models practical.