A method estimates causal parameters using a latent variable recovery.
problem Estimating causal parameters in contexts with multiple causes and unobserved confounding.
method Substitute adjustment via recovery of latent variables.
result Substitute adjustment estimates adjusted regression parameters under certain conditions.
Deep equilibrium models estimate latent variables from data.
problem Estimating latent variables from data.
method Generalized exponential family models, deep equilibrium networks.
result Deep equilibrium models solve MAP estimates for latent and transformation parameters.
Latent feature models (LFM)s are widely employed for extracting latent structures of data. While offering high, parameter estimation is difficult with LFMs because of the combinational nature of latent features, and non-identifiability is a particularly difficult problem when parameter estimation is not unique and ther…
A new gradient estimator reduces variance near boundaries for binary latent variables.
problem Explosive gradient variance near boundaries in binary latent variable models.
method Introduces a new gradient estimator (bitflip-1) and an aggregated estimator (UGC) that uses either bitflip-1 or DisARM for each coordinate.
result UGC has uniformly lower variance than DisARM and achieves optimal optimization objectives.
It is a well known fact that recovery rates tend to go down when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. We demonstrate how the loss given default model with the default and recovery dependent via the latent systematic risk factor can be estimated using Bayesian inference methodology and Markov chain Mont…
Scalable approach for high-dimensional dynamical systems with noise filtering and parameter estimation.
problem Noise filtering and parameter estimation for high-dimensional dynamical systems.
method Flexible latent factor model with orthogonal factor loading matrix and closed-form parameter estimation.
result Substantial acceleration and higher accuracy compared to alternatives.
New method improves uncertainty quantification in latent variable models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in latent variable models with SGLD-Gibbs.
method Statistical scaling limit theory for SGLD-Gibbs, proposing hyperparameter tuning.
result Explicit guidance on hyperparameter tuning for SGLD-Gibbs ensures meaningful uncertainty quantification.
SUMO provides unbiased log marginal likelihood estimation for latent variable models.
problem Biased estimates of log marginal likelihood in latent variable models.
method Randomized truncation of infinite series for unbiased estimation.
result Models trained with SUMO give better test-set likelihoods than standard methods.
KIPLMC methods improve statistical inference in latent variable models.
problem Statistical inference in latent variable models.
method Joint diffusion process in parameter and latent variable spaces, with two explicit discretizations.
result KIPLMC methods achieve accelerated convergence rates in Wasserstein-2 distance.
New method estimates model parameters from incomplete data.
problem Estimating model parameters from incomplete data.
method Variational Gibbs Inference (VGI)
result Competitive or better performance compared to existing methods.
Spectral methods have greatly advanced the estimation of latent variable models, generating a sequence of novel and efficient algorithms with strong theoretical guarantees. However, current spectral algorithms are largely restricted to mixtures of discrete or Gaussian distributions. In this paper, we propose a kernel m…
Proposes a transfer learning method for accurate latent variable estimation.
problem Accurate estimation of latent variables in networks with large parameter spaces.
method Leverages information from similar networks to improve estimation accuracy.
result The proposed methods improve estimation accuracy and are validated on real datasets.
Hierarchical parametric models consisting of observable and latent variables are widely used for unsupervised learning tasks. For example, a mixture model is a representative hierarchical model for clustering. From the statistical point of view, the models can be regular or singular due to the distribution of data. In …
E&E uses contrastive learning to speed up SBI for high-dimensional systems.
problem Challenges in training high-dimensional emulators for complex systems.
method Contrastive learning for low-dimensional latent embedding and fast emulator.
result Superior performance in non-identifiable parameter estimation tasks.
Autoencoder estimates parameters of noisy, multi-component damped signals.
problem Parameter estimation of damped sinusoidal signals under rapid decay and noise.
method Autoencoder-based approach using latent space for frequency, phase, decay, and amplitude estimation.
result High accuracy in parameter estimation, robustness to subdominant components and phase differences.
We consider a binary sequence generated by thresholding a hidden continuous sequence. The hidden variables are assumed to have a compound symmetry covariance structure with a single parameter characterizing the common correlation. We study the parameter estimation problem under such one-parameter models. We demonstrate…
Paper models non-linear dynamics from time series data.
problem Modeling non-linear dynamical systems from time series data.
method Introduces latent state modeling and a novel alternating minimization algorithm.
result LaNoLem achieves competitive performance in dynamics estimation and prediction.
This work considers a computationally and statistically efficient parameter estimation method for a wide class of latent variable models---including Gaussian mixture models, hidden Markov models, and latent Dirichlet allocation---which exploits a certain tensor structure in their low-order observable moments (typically…
Tree structured graphical models are powerful at expressing long range or hierarchical dependency among many variables, and have been widely applied in different areas of computer science and statistics. However, existing methods for parameter estimation, inference, and structure learning mainly rely on the Gaussian or…
Estimates the ratio of posterior distributions of latent variables.
problem Comparing posterior distributions of latent variables inferred from observations.
method Parametric model approximation and estimation using observed and prior samples.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimation of posterior ratio parameters.
We study parameter inference in large-scale latent variable models. We first propose an unified treatment of online inference for latent variable models from a non-canonical exponential family, and draw explicit links between several previously proposed frequentist or Bayesian methods. We then propose a novel inference…
New algorithms improve inference in non-differentiable models.
problem Inference and learning in latent variable models with non-differentiable densities.
method Proximal interacting particle Langevin algorithms (PIPLA).
result Nonasymptotic bounds and effectiveness demonstrated in various models.
A new method for discrete data normalizing flows using latent transformations.
problem Challenges in parameterizing bijective transformations for discrete data.
method Predict a distribution over latent transformations to make the marginal likelihood differentiable.
result Discrete-data normalizing flows can be trained using gradient-based learning with unbiased score function estimation.
The article addresses a long-standing open problem on the justification of using variational Bayes methods for parameter estimation. We provide general conditions for obtaining optimal risk bounds for point estimates acquired from mean-field variational Bayesian inference. The conditions pertain to the existence of cer…
AI-generated variables bias regression estimates; methods correct for invalid inference.
problem Bias in regression estimates due to AI-generated variables.
method Two methods: bias correction and joint estimation.
result Valid inference restored through proposed methods.
Proposes a Gaussian process for Koopman mode decomposition.
problem Estimating Koopman mode decomposition quantities and latent variables.
method Unsupervised Gaussian process for simultaneous estimation.
result Efficient parameter estimation through low-rank approximations.
Simple Deep LDA models achieve accuracy competitive with softmax baselines.
problem Training Deep LDA models by maximum likelihood estimation leads to overlapping or collapsed class clusters.
method Proposed a constrained Deep LDA formulation with geometric constraints to fix class means and covariance.
result MLE becomes stable under geometric constraints, yielding well-separated class clusters.
We introduce a novel approach for estimating Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) parameters from collapsed Gibbs samples (CGS), by leveraging the full conditional distributions over the latent variable assignments to efficiently average over multiple samples, for little more computational cost than drawing a single addit…
A new model estimates mixed memberships for categorical data with weighted responses.
problem Limited applicability of existing GoM model to weighted categorical data.
method Proposes Weighted Grade of Membership (WGoM) model, relaxing distribution constraints.
result WGoM can describe any response matrix with finite distinct elements.
New algorithm improves latent variable model estimation.
problem Estimating parameters in latent variable models.
method Jarzynski-adjusted Langevin algorithm (JALA) for SMC methods.
result JALA-EM provides maximum marginal likelihood estimate.
LaRT models LLMs' response accuracy and CoT length to evaluate reasoning ability and speed.
problem Valid evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) via response accuracy and chain-of-thought length.
method Introduces Latency-Response Theory (LaRT) to jointly model response accuracy and CoT length using latent ability and latent speed.
result LaRT yields higher estimation accuracy and shorter confidence intervals for latent traits compared to IRT.
Study identifies parameters in causal models with latent confounding.
problem Parameter identification in linear non-Gaussian causal models with latent confounding.
method Graphical criterion for necessary and sufficient identifiability of direct causal effects, with polynomial-time algorithm.
result Developed a graphical criterion for identifying direct causal effects in latent variable models with arbitrary non-linear confounding.
We consider the problem of extracting a low-dimensional, linear latent variable structure from high-dimensional random variables. Specifically, we show that under mild conditions and when this structure manifests itself as a linear space that spans the conditional means, it is possible to consistently recover the struc…
Study uses a bivariate model to price crude oil futures.
problem Pricing crude oil futures using latent factors and state-space models.
method Modelled short and long term factors as OU processes, estimated using Kalman Filter and maximised Gaussian likelihood.
result Successfully estimated model parameters and factors from WTI Crude Oil NYMEX futures data.
Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance, carrying out the Bayesian program of computing the full posterior distributions over t…
Unbiased gradient estimation improves VAE performance.
problem Training VAEs via maximum likelihood is difficult due to intractable integrals.
method Introduced unbiased estimators of the log-likelihood gradient using coupled Markov chains.
result Unbiased estimators lead to better predictive performance in VAEs.
New LVMs optimize any exponential family distribution without specific assumptions.
problem Optimizing latent variable models with non-Gaussian observables.
method Generic optimization using EM approach for exponential family distributions.
result Concise parameter update equations applicable to various data types.
A new VIS approach improves log-likelihood estimation in latent variable models.
problem Challenges in achieving high log-likelihood with VI for complex posterior distributions.
method Uses forward χ2 divergence to optimize proposal distribution for better log-likelihood estimation. result Consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in log-likelihood and parameter estimation.
A novel stepwise VI method using vine copulas for complex latent dependence.
problem Modeling complex latent dependence structures in probabilistic models.
method Stepwise estimation of vine copula parameters using Rényi divergence and a stopping criterion.
result Our method outperforms mean-field VI and is more parsimonious in complex applications.
This article investigates parameter estimation of affine term structure models by means of the generalized method of moments. Exact moments of the affine latent process as well as of the yields are obtained by using results derived for p-polynomial processes. Then the generalized method of moments, combined with Quasi-…
We present a new statistical learning paradigm for Boltzmann machines based on a new inference principle we have proposed: the latent maximum entropy principle (LME). LME is different both from Jaynes maximum entropy principle and from standard maximum likelihood estimation.We demonstrate the LME principle BY deriving …
Diffusion models enhance SBI with flexible parameter and observation learning.
problem Efficient and accurate estimation of latent parameters from simulations and real data.
method Score-based diffusion models, guidance, score composition, flow matching, consistency models, joint modeling.
result Flexibility and versatility in modeling various problems.
We present an integrated approach for structure and parameter estimation in latent tree graphical models. Our overall approach follows a "divide-and-conquer" strategy that learns models over small groups of variables and iteratively merges onto a global solution. The structure learning involves combinatorial operations…
Bayesian model tackles high-dimensional inverse problems efficiently.
problem Estimating spatially-varying parameters in expensive models.
method Multiscale Bayesian inference with deep generative models and MCMC.
result Efficient estimation of global and local parameter features.
Online DEM improves tracking of latent states in dynamic systems.
problem Tracking latent states in dynamic systems with online updates.
method Specializes DEM for online data assimilation, separating temporal scales.
result ODEM can track latent states of a non-linear generative model.
Paper addresses state estimation in sensor networks with intermittent data.
problem State estimation in sensor networks with packet dropouts and corrupted observations.
method Bayesian variational inference with a dual-mask generative model.
result The method effectively identifies system states and noise parameters.
An efficient algorithm selects the correct number of latent dimensions in multidimensional probit models.
problem Determining the correct number of latent dimensions in multidimensional probit graded response models.
method Adaptive Bayesian dimension selection framework using cumulative ordered spike-and-slab (COSS) prior and Albert--Chib latent response augmentation.
result The proposed method accurately recovers latent structures and avoids repeated model fitting.
Discriminative latent-variable models are typically learned using EM or gradient-based optimization, which suffer from local optima. In this paper, we develop a new computationally efficient and provably consistent estimator for a mixture of linear regressions, a simple instance of a discriminative latent-variable mode…