We consider the problem of imitation learning from expert demonstrations in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Belief representations, which characterize the distribution over the latent states in a POMDP, have been modeled using recurrent neural networks and probabilistic latent variable models, …
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48 results for “latent beliefs”
This paper tackles belief-state selection in simulators with latent states.
problem Selecting among approximate belief-state samplers for simulators with latent variables.
method Reduces belief-state selection to conditional distribution selection, develops algorithms and analyses.
result Different formulations of belief-state selection have varying guarantees under different roll-out methods.
Recurrent-DBN models dynamic relational data with interpretable latent structures.
problem Interpreting dynamic relational data with hidden structures.
method Recurrent Dirichlet Belief Network framework with hierarchical latent structures and efficient inference strategy.
result Recurrent-DBN discovers interpretable latent structures and improves link prediction.
This study models FOMC policy decisions using debate-based LLMs.
problem Accurately predicting central bank policy decisions, especially FOMC's, is challenging.
method A novel framework that simulates FOMC's collective decision-making process through iterative rounds of LLMs interacting as agents.
result The debate-based approach significantly outperforms standard LLMs in prediction accuracy.
Applying traditional collaborative filtering to digital publishing is challenging because user data is very sparse due to the high volume of documents relative to the number of users. Content based approaches, on the other hand, is attractive because textual content is often very informative. In this paper we describe …
Develops a framework for quantifying agentic AI model risk using LLM-inferred Bayesian state filters.
problem Quantifying the risk of agentic AI systems due to uncertain beliefs and actions.
method Representing the system as a partially observed Markov decision process with latent states, Bayesian belief updates, control-dependent losses, and tail-risk functionals.
result Develops a rigorous framework for separating uncertainty quantification from risk measurement.
UWM-JEPA predicts future scenarios in belief space, improving accuracy in partially observed environments.
problem Predicting future scenarios in partially observed environments with uncertainty.
method Introduces UWM-JEPA, a JEPA world model with a density-matrix latent and learned unitary predictor.
result UWM-JEPA achieves 0.77 accuracy on a hidden-velocity indicator task, outperforming LSTM-JEPA.
NBF combines deep learning with classical filtering for better belief tracking.
problem Maintaining distributions over hidden states in partially observable systems.
method Trains neural networks to map beliefs to fixed-length vectors, updating them with incoming observations and dynamics.
result NBF efficiently tracks shifting, multimodal beliefs without particle impoverishment.
Kernel Topic Modelscs.LG
Latent Dirichlet Allocation models discrete data as a mixture of discrete distributions, using Dirichlet beliefs over the mixture weights. We study a variation of this concept, in which the documents' mixture weight beliefs are replaced with squashed Gaussian distributions. This allows documents to be associated with e…
A new model validation framework for agentic AI systems based on POMDPs.
problem Model validation of agentic AI systems.
method A POMDP-based framework for belief-state, forecast, and policy validation.
result The framework decomposes autonomous decision making into information, beliefs, forecasts, actions, and utility.
Generalizes information theory to evolving belief.
problem Measuring change in belief over time.
method Derives a general theory of information from first principles.
result Recover all information measures and interprets entropy as expected gain.
Learning general latent-variable probabilistic graphical models is a key theoretical challenge in machine learning and artificial intelligence. All previous methods, including the EM algorithm and the spectral algorithms, face severe limitations that largely restrict their applicability and affect their performance. In…
For text analysis, one often resorts to a lossy representation that either completely ignores word order or embeds each word as a low-dimensional dense feature vector. In this paper, we propose convolutional Poisson factor analysis (CPFA) that directly operates on a lossless representation that processes the words in e…
Paper introduces a new framework to improve sample efficiency in POMDPs learning.
problem Challenges in off-policy evaluation for POMDPs, especially with hidden states.
method Exploits the metric structure of belief space to relax coverage assumptions.
result Unified analysis technique yields tighter error bounds and sample efficiency improvements.
Sequence models quantify uncertainty over latent concepts.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in latent environments.
method Exchangeable sequence models, equivalent to empirical Bayes and posterior inference.
result Sequence prediction loss controls uncertainty quantification.
Agent decides when to measure latent states in RL to improve efficiency.
problem Costly state measurement in RL negatively affects future outcomes.
method Introduces AOMDP with measurement action, uses online RL and sequential Monte Carlo.
result Reduced uncertainty improves sample efficiency and policy value.
Efficiently learns deep factor graphs using Gaussian belief propagation.
problem Learning in deep factor graphs with efficient inference.
method Treats all relevant quantities as random variables, uses belief propagation for inference.
result Efficiently solves training and prediction problems in deep factor graphs with belief propagation.
A recurring problem when building probabilistic latent variable models is regularization and model selection, for instance, the choice of the dimensionality of the latent space. In the context of belief networks with latent variables, this problem has been adressed with Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) employing…
A new framework for adaptive behavior using reusable value profiles.
problem Adaptive behavior in changing environments requires switching among value-control regimes, but maintaining separate parameters for each situation is impractical.
method Introduces value profiles: reusable bundles of parameters assigned to hidden states, allowing for state-conditional strategy recruitment without independent parameters for each context.
result Profile-based models outperform simpler alternatives in probabilistic reversal learning, suggesting belief-dependent control of adaptive behavior.
New method learns priors for Bayesian neural networks from datasets.
problem Lack of prior beliefs in Bayesian deep learning.
method Amortised variational inference to learn priors from datasets.
result Flexible Bayesian neural networks for meta-learning and within-task minibatching.
Online DEM improves tracking of latent states in dynamic systems.
problem Tracking latent states in dynamic systems with online updates.
method Specializes DEM for online data assimilation, separating temporal scales.
result ODEM can track latent states of a non-linear generative model.
Highly expressive directed latent variable models, such as sigmoid belief networks, are difficult to train on large datasets because exact inference in them is intractable and none of the approximate inference methods that have been applied to them scale well. We propose a fast non-iterative approximate inference metho…
Personalized Risk Scoring for Critical Care Patients using Mixtures of Gaussian Process Expertscs.LG
We develop a personalized real time risk scoring algorithm that provides timely and granular assessments for the clinical acuity of ward patients based on their (temporal) lab tests and vital signs. Heterogeneity of the patients population is captured via a hierarchical latent class model. The proposed algorithm aims t…
Latent-state environments with long horizons, such as those faced by recommender systems, pose significant challenges for reinforcement learning (RL). In this work, we identify and analyze several key hurdles for RL in such environments, including belief state error and small action advantage. We develop a general prin…
ALBU improves LDA performance on small datasets.
problem Limited data impairs variational Bayes in LDA.
method Approximate Loopy Belief message passing algorithm.
result ALBU learns latent distributions more accurately than VB, especially for smaller data sets.
Optimal market making improves liquidity in prediction markets.
problem Efficient price discovery in prediction markets.
method Stochastic control framework for optimal market making.
result Optimal market quotes improve downside protection and profit.
Bayesian principles improve agentic AI decision-making.
problem Decision-making under uncertainty in agentic AI systems.
method Bayesian decision theory applied to the orchestration layer of agentic AI.
result Bayesian principles enhance agentic AI's ability to make decisions under uncertainty.
Bayesian optimization uses shared latent variables for multiple systems.
problem Optimizing systems with limited data and unknown relationships.
method Shared latent variables, Bayesian inference, probabilistic metamodel.
result Performance improvement in zero-, one-, and few-shot settings.
Neural Assistant integrates knowledge reasoning and dialogue generation in a single model.
problem Challenges in task-oriented dialog systems, including multi-turn language understanding and generation, knowledge retrieval and reasoning, and action prediction.
method Develops a single neural network model that jointly predicts text responses and actions from conversation history and external knowledge.
result The model learns to reason on external knowledge with weak supervision, improving factual accuracy and language generation performance.
Deep Latent Dirichlet Allocation with Topic-Layer-Adaptive Stochastic Gradient Riemannian MCMCstat.ML
It is challenging to develop stochastic gradient based scalable inference for deep discrete latent variable models (LVMs), due to the difficulties in not only computing the gradients, but also adapting the step sizes to different latent factors and hidden layers. For the Poisson gamma belief network (PGBN), a recently …
In this paper we present decomposable priors, a family of priors over structure and parameters of tree belief nets for which Bayesian learning with complete observations is tractable, in the sense that the posterior is also decomposable and can be completely determined analytically in polynomial time. This follows from…
We show a connection between the Fourier spectrum of Boolean functions and the REINFORCE gradient estimator for binary latent variable models. We show that REINFORCE estimates (up to a factor) the degree-1 Fourier coefficients of a Boolean function. Using this connection we offer a new perspective on variance reduction…
Improved exploration in RL with latent state marginalization.
problem Complexity of deep probabilistic models limits their practical use in reinforcement learning.
method Adopting latent variable policies within the MaxEnt framework, with low-cost marginalization of latent states.
result Effective marginalization leads to better exploration and more robust training.
Unified Bayesian model explains in-context learning and activation steering in LLMs.
problem Understanding and controlling the behavior of large language models (LLMs) through prompts and activations.
method Developed a Bayesian model to explain and predict the effects of in-context learning and activation steering.
result Unified model predicts distinct phases and sudden shifts in LLM behavior, explaining prior empirical phenomena.
Learning from multiple sources of information is an important problem in machine-learning research. The key challenges are learning representations and formulating inference methods that take into account the complementarity and redundancy of various information sources. In this paper we formulate a variational autoenc…
Deep Gaussian Processesstat.ML
In this paper we introduce deep Gaussian process (GP) models. Deep GPs are a deep belief network based on Gaussian process mappings. The data is modeled as the output of a multivariate GP. The inputs to that Gaussian process are then governed by another GP. A single layer model is equivalent to a standard GP or the GP …
Recent advances in the estimation of deep directed graphical models and recurrent networks let us contribute to the removal of a blind spot in the area of probabilistc modelling of time series. The proposed methods i) can infer distributed latent state-space trajectories with nonlinear transitions, ii) scale to large d…
Variational Auto-Encoders (VAEs) have been widely applied for learning compact, low-dimensional latent representations of high-dimensional data. When the correlation structure among data points is available, previous work proposed Correlated Variational Auto-Encoders (CVAEs), which employ a structured mixture model as …
An Efficient Algorithm for Computing Interventional Distributions in Latent Variable Causal Modelscs.LG
Probabilistic inference in graphical models is the task of computing marginal and conditional densities of interest from a factorized representation of a joint probability distribution. Inference algorithms such as variable elimination and belief propagation take advantage of constraints embedded in this factorization …
Generalized belief propagation converges to optimal solutions on graphs with motifs.
problem Understanding belief propagation on loopy graphs.
method Study of generalized belief propagation on graphs with motifs.
result Generalized belief propagation converges to the global optimum of the Bethe free energy.
Study risk sharing with Lambda VaR under diverse beliefs.
problem Risk sharing among agents with different beliefs.
method Use Lambda Value-at-Risk as preference, analyze under heterogeneous beliefs.
result Explicit formulas for risk sharing under various belief scenarios.
We investigate the optimization of two probabilistic generative models with binary latent variables using a novel variational EM approach. The approach distinguishes itself from previous variational approaches by using latent states as variational parameters. Here we use efficient and general purpose sampling procedure…
Visual perception is a challenging problem in part due to illumination variations. A possible solution is to first estimate an illumination invariant representation before using it for recognition. The object albedo and surface normals are examples of such representations. In this paper, we introduce a multilayer gener…
A new algorithm improves topic model accuracy in small data sets.
problem Limited data leads to inaccurate topic model identification.
method Developed a novel variational message passing algorithm (ALBU) for LDA.
result ALBU learns latent distributions more accurately than Variational Bayes (VB) in small data sets.
Belief propagation recovers backpropagation results.
problem Connection between backpropagation and belief propagation poorly understood.
method Converted backpropagation input to belief propagation input and showed results.
result Backpropagation is a special case of belief propagation.
We propose a probabilistic graphical model realizing a minimal encoding of real variables dependencies based on possibly incomplete observation and an empirical cumulative distribution function per variable. The target application is a large scale partially observed system, like e.g. a traffic network, where a small pr…
New framework analyzes belief evolution in social networks.
problem Analyzing belief evolution in social networks.
method Proposes a new theoretical framework using Markov chain theory for horizontal and vertical transmission.
result Homophily-based networks do not converge to a single set of beliefs.
Deep Belief Network predicts lncRNA-disease associations with high accuracy.
problem Accurately identifying lncRNA-disease associations to understand lncRNA functionality and disease mechanism.
method Proposes a DBN-based model using heterogeneous networks and DBN for feature learning.
result Obtained AUC of 0.96 and AUPR of 0.967 on standard dataset.