arXiv research

This study compares the largest claims from two insurance portfolios using stochastic orderings.

Let $X_{λ_1},\ldots,X_{λ_n}$ be dependent non-negative random variables and $Y_i=I_{p_i} X_{λ_i}$, $i=1,\ldots,n$, where $I_{p_1},\ldots,I_{p_n}$ are independent Bernoulli random variables independent of $X_{λ_i}$'s, with ${\rm E}[I_{p_i}]=p_i$, $i=1,\ldots,n$. In actuarial sciences, $Y_i$ corresponds to the claim amo…

We contribute the largest publicly available dataset of naturally occurring factual claims for the purpose of automatic claim verification. It is collected from 26 fact checking websites in English, paired with textual sources and rich metadata, and labelled for veracity by human expert journalists. We present an in-de…

Sornette et al. claimed that the optimal supply does not agree with the average demand, by analyzing a bakery model where a daily demand fluctuates with a uniform distribution. In this note, we extend the model to general probability distributions, and obtain the formula of the optimal supply for Gaussian distribution,…

Techniques such as ensembling and distillation promise model quality improvements when paired with almost any base model. However, due to increased test-time cost (for ensembles) and increased complexity of the training pipeline (for distillation), these techniques are challenging to use in industrial settings. In this…

Revisits VIC method to correct intrinsic reward bias in stochastic environments.

We respond to the issues discussed by Farmer and Lillo (FL) related to our proposed approach to understanding the origin of power-law distributions in stock price fluctuations. First, we extend our previous analysis to 1000 US stocks and perform a new estimation of market impact that accounts for splitting of large ord…

Cryptocurrency markets exhibit violent, synchronised drawdowns, challenging diversification claims.

The sharp decline in Ireland's economic performance in recent years has coincided with a recent fall in asylum applications. Simultaneously countries such as Switzerland are seeing increases in asylum numbers with evidence for greater numbers of Nigerian applicants, a group that have for some time been the largest nati…

Cube category simplifies set modeling.

Reinforcement learning improves insurance claims reserving by learning from all claim trajectories.

Word embeddings are a popular approach to unsupervised learning of word relationships that are widely used in natural language processing. In this article, we present a new set of embeddings for medical concepts learned using an extremely large collection of multimodal medical data. Leaning on recent theoretical insigh…

The study analyzes how bonus-malus systems and delayed claims settlement affect insurance companies' financial stability.

In this paper, we use a new approach to prove that the largest eigenvalue of the sample covariance matrix of a normally distributed vector is bigger than the true largest eigenvalue with probability 1 when the dimension is infinite. We prove a similar result for the smallest eigenvalue.

Deep Claim predicts payer responses from claims data using deep learning.

New method for individual claims reserving using machine learning.

The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the collective risk model, where the total claim size in a portfolio is the sum of a …

Two machine learning models detect anomalies in ER claims, saving up to 40% in improper payments.

Optimizes insurance processing capacity to minimize costs.

This work is an answer to the EIOPA 2017 report. It follows from the latter that in order to assess the potential systemic risk we should take into account the build-up of risk and in particular the risk that arises in time, as well as the interlinkages in the financial sector and the whole economy. Our main tools used…

New model bridges pricing and reserving for insurance claims.

The set of equivalence classes of cobounded actions of a group on different hyperbolic metric spaces carries a natural partial order. The resulting poset thus gives rise to a notion of the "best" hyperbolic action of a group as the largest element of this poset, if such an element exists. We call such an action a large…

Model detects insurance fraud using social network analysis.

We consider trading in a financial market with proportional transaction costs. In the frictionless case, claims are maximal if and only if they are priced by a consistent price process--the equivalent of an equivalent martingale measure. This result fails in the presence of transaction costs. A properly maximal claim i…

Investor maximizes utility from an unknown claim using robust optimization.

Model predicts individual insurance claim reserves using activation patterns.

BERT learns claim descriptions to identify patent novelty.

Insurance companies must manage millions of claims per year. While most of these claims are non-fraudulent, fraud detection is core for insurance companies. The ultimate goal is a predictive model to single out the fraudulent claims and pay out the non-fraudulent ones immediately. Modern machine learning methods are we…

Paper introduces EEMs for pricing contingent claim returns.

Traditional non-life reserving models largely neglect the vast amount of information collected over the lifetime of a claim. This information includes covariates describing the policy, claim cause as well as the detailed history collected during a claim's development over time. We present the hierarchical reserving mod…

We perform a comparative analysis of the Chinese stock market around the occurrence of the 2008 crisis based on the random matrix analysis of high-frequency stock returns of 1228 stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. Both raw correlation matrix and partial correlation matrix with respect to the ma…

A new method for modeling insurance claim frequencies using random proportions.

The paper introduces BCART models for aggregate claim amount, improving frequency-severity and joint modeling.

In this work, we focus on fine-tuning an OpenAI GPT-2 pre-trained model for generating patent claims. GPT-2 has demonstrated impressive efficacy of pre-trained language models on various tasks, particularly coherent text generation. Patent claim language itself has rarely been explored in the past and poses a unique ch…

Study non-standard bi-orders on punctured torus bundles, matching standard ones in key subgroups.

FiNCAT tool automatically identifies financial numerals in documents.

Deployment-complete benchmarking assesses if evidence leads to consistent deployment actions.

LLMs help automate extraction of actuarial variables from unstructured claims data.

New method simplifies individual claims reserving.

Using a suitable change of probability measure, we obtain a novel Poisson series representation for the arbitrage- free price process of vulnerable contingent claims in a regime-switching market driven by an underlying continuous- time Markov process. As a result of this representation, along with a short-time asymptot…

Study tackles imbalanced data in car insurance claims prediction.

We derive asymptotic expansions for the prices of a variety of European and barrier-style claims in a general local-stochastic volatility setting. Our method combines Taylor series expansions of the diffusion coefficients with an expansion in the correlation parameter between the underlying asset and volatility process…

Time-aware fact-checking improves veracity predictions for time-sensitive claims.

We consider a classical risk process with arrival of claims following a non-stationary Hawkes process. We study the asymptotic regime when the premium rate and the baseline intensity of the claims arrival process are large, and claim size is small. The main goal of the article is to establish a diffusion approximation …

We investigate, focusing on the ruin probability, an adaptation of the Cramer-Lundberg model for the surplus process of an insurance company, in which, conditionally on their intensities, the two mixed Poisson processes governing the arrival times of the premiums and of the claims respectively, are independent. Such a …

Study on Kähler manifolds shows rigidity of eigenvalues with positive Ricci bound.

Unified methods for hedging impermanent loss in decentralized exchanges.

Wojciech Kamiński disproved a spiral claim for conformal geodesics.