A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Infinitesimal boosting converges to a deterministic process in large sample limit.
Develops large-sample theory for non-stationary source separation.
We analyze SGAs for statistical inference via asymptotics, improving tuning methods.
New method compresses large sample data for faster discriminant analysis.
New framework analyzes SGD dynamics in large samples and dimensions.
Develops stability conditions for estimating affine jump-diffusions.
For a finite function class we describe the large sample limit of the sequential Rademacher complexity in terms of the viscosity solution of a -heat equation. In the language of Peng's sublinear expectation theory, the same quantity equals to the expected value of the largest order statistics of a multidimensional $…
New tuning rules for Metropolis algorithms derived from Bayesian large-sample asymptotics.
New auditors assess -DP privacy with adaptive sampling, avoiding large sample sizes.
We study the distribution of the adaptive LASSO estimator (Zou (2006)) in finite samples as well as in the large-sample limit. The large-sample distributions are derived both for the case where the adaptive LASSO estimator is tuned to perform conservative model selection as well as for the case where the tuning results…
Two new methods for analyzing repeated measures data using embeddings into Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces.
New methods for estimating causal effects with limited overlap, using Stable Probability Weighting.
The paper analyzes LIME for tabular data and proves its behavior in large samples.
A significant hurdle for analyzing large sample data is the lack of effective statistical computing and inference methods. An emerging powerful approach for analyzing large sample data is subsampling, by which one takes a random subsample from the original full sample and uses it as a surrogate for subsequent computati…
Although consistency is a minimum requirement of any estimator, little is known about consistency of the mean partition approach in consensus clustering. This contribution studies the asymptotic behavior of mean partitions. We show that under normal assumptions, the mean partition approach is consistent and asymptotic …
We develop a sequential low-complexity inference procedure for Dirichlet process mixtures of Gaussians for online clustering and parameter estimation when the number of clusters are unknown a-priori. We present an easily computable, closed form parametric expression for the conditional likelihood, in which hyperparamet…
We study the distributions of the LASSO, SCAD, and thresholding estimators, in finite samples and in the large-sample limit. The asymptotic distributions are derived for both the case where the estimators are tuned to perform consistent model selection and for the case where the estimators are tuned to perform conserva…
This paper investigates asymptotic behaviors of gradient descent algorithms (particularly accelerated gradient descent and stochastic gradient descent) in the context of stochastic optimization arising in statistics and machine learning where objective functions are estimated from available data. We show that these alg…
New methods estimate interventional effects with multiple mediators using machine learning.
A practical algorithm improves approximate OT distances using quantization.
This paper introduces online algorithms to estimate robust geometric median in large data streams.
We apply random matrix theory to derive spectral density of large sample covariance matrices generated by multivariate VMA(q), VAR(q) and VARMA(q1,q2) processes. In particular, we consider a limit where the number of random variables N and the number of consecutive time measurements T are large but the ratio N/T is fix…
Through simple analytical calculations and numerical simulations, we demonstrate the generic existence of a self-organized macroscopic state in any large multivariate system possessing non-vanishing average correlations between a finite fraction of all pairs of elements. The coexistence of an eigenvalue spectrum predic…
In kernel methods, the median heuristic has been widely used as a way of setting the bandwidth of RBF kernels. While its empirical performances make it a safe choice under many circumstances, there is little theoretical understanding of why this is the case. Our aim in this paper is to advance our understanding of the …
The paper proves asymptotic normality for multinomial logistic regression on null covariates.
We theoretically discuss why deep neural networks (DNNs) performs better than other models in some cases by investigating statistical properties of DNNs for non-smooth functions. While DNNs have empirically shown higher performance than other standard methods, understanding its mechanism is still a challenging problem.…
For spherically symmetric distributions, efficient quantisation can be achieved with moderate sample sizes.
Maximum Variance Unfolding is one of the main methods for (nonlinear) dimensionality reduction. We study its large sample limit, providing specific rates of convergence under standard assumptions. We find that it is consistent when the underlying submanifold is isometric to a convex subset, and we provide some simple e…
New method improves uncertainty quantification for large batch sizes and misspecified models.
Online (also called "recursive" or "adaptive") estimation of fixed model parameters in hidden Markov models is a topic of much interest in times series modelling. In this work, we propose an online parameter estimation algorithm that combines two key ideas. The first one, which is deeply rooted in the Expectation-Maxim…
The paper develops a statistical theory explaining overfitting in imbalanced classification.
Large sample size brings the computation bottleneck for modern data analysis. Subsampling is one of efficient strategies to handle this problem. In previous studies, researchers make more fo- cus on subsampling with replacement (SSR) than on subsampling without replacement (SSWR). In this paper we investigate a kind of…
Gaussian latent tree models, or more generally, Gaussian latent forest models have Fisher-information matrices that become singular along interesting submodels, namely, models that correspond to subforests. For these singularities, we compute the real log-canonical thresholds (also known as stochastic complexities or l…
We derive formulas for F measures' standard error and confidence intervals.
Motivated by safety-critical applications, test-time attacks on classifiers via adversarial examples has recently received a great deal of attention. However, there is a general lack of understanding on why adversarial examples arise; whether they originate due to inherent properties of data or due to lack of training …
We present a new package in R implementing Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). The package introduces many new features for data analysis using BART such as variable selection, interaction detection, model diagnostic plots, incorporation of missing data and the ability to save trees for future prediction. It is …
The question of how to determine the number of independent latent factors (topics) in mixture models such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is of great practical importance. In most applications, the exact number of topics is unknown, and depends on the application and the size of the data set. Bayesian nonparametri…
Investments with best performance are not associated with best Sharpe ratios.
Causal effect estimation from observational data is an important and much studied research topic. The instrumental variable (IV) and local causal discovery (LCD) patterns are canonical examples of settings where a closed-form expression exists for the causal effect of one variable on another, given the presence of a th…
Many estimators of the average effect of a treatment on an outcome require estimation of the propensity score, the outcome regression, or both. It is often beneficial to utilize flexible techniques such as semiparametric regression or machine learning to estimate these quantities. However, optimal estimation of these r…
Study estimates heterogeneous principal causal effects with binary treatments and intermediate variables.
Clustering with fast algorithms large samples of high dimensional data is an important challenge in computational statistics. Borrowing ideas from MacQueen (1967) who introduced a sequential version of the -means algorithm, a new class of recursive stochastic gradient algorithms designed for the -medians loss cri…
We propose generalized random forests, a method for non-parametric statistical estimation based on random forests (Breiman, 2001) that can be used to fit any quantity of interest identified as the solution to a set of local moment equations. Following the literature on local maximum likelihood estimation, our method co…
This paper develops DRO estimators for EVT statistics using point processes.
We analyze the (unconditional) distribution of a linear predictor that is constructed after a data-driven model selection step in a linear regression model. First, we derive the exact finite-sample cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the linear predictor, and a simple approximation to this (complicated) cdf. We t…
New GoF test improves change point detection in multivariate time series.
New method predicts sets under unknown covariate shift with high confidence.
Study on kernel tests for high-dimensional data, focusing on MMD and CLT.