Improved water balance model for large lakes using statistical methods.
problem Uncertainty and bias in independent input measurements for large lake hydrologic cycles.
method Developed a Bayesian statistical water balance model (L2SWBM) for Lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron.
result Demonstrated L2SWBM from 26 alternatives that adequately close the water balance of the lakes.
PGA neural network improves uncertainty quantification in lake temperature modeling.
problem Quantifying uncertainties in lake temperature models while maintaining physical consistency.
method Integrates physical constraints into neural networks using Monte Carlo Dropout.
result Ensures better generalizability and physical consistency in MC estimates.
Physics-guided models improve lake temperature and quality predictions.
problem Predicting and monitoring water temperature and quality in lakes.
method Combining physics-based models and recurrent neural networks with physical constraints.
result Improved prediction accuracy and scientific consistency.
Study on travel time formulas in a lake with wind flow.
problem Travel time in a lake with wind flow.
method Geometric approach using Finsler metrics.
result Formulas for distances and travel times derived.
PGNN combines physics models with neural nets for lake temperature prediction.
problem Lake temperature modeling with physical constraints.
method Physics-guided neural networks using hybrid modeling and physics-based loss functions.
result PGNN improves generalizability and scientific consistency in lake temperature predictions.
New method clusters hydrological and sediment data for storm event analysis.
problem Analyzing storm events for water quality constituents like turbidity.
method Multivariate time series clustering of river discharge and sediment data.
result Clusters differ from 2-D hysteresis loop classifications.
Humans learn a predictive model of the world and use this model to reason about future events and the consequences of actions. In contrast to most machine predictors, we exhibit an impressive ability to generalize to unseen scenarios and reason intelligently in these settings. One important aspect of this ability is ph…
Simple object representations improve model-free RL performance.
problem Current reinforcement learning agents lack object recognition.
method Used simple, feature-engineered object representations with the Rainbow model.
result Object representations significantly boost performance on Atari games.
Paper defines when early exercise of American options is optimal under negative rates.
problem Determining optimal exercise times for American options with negative interest rates.
method Developed a new integral equation to price options and find exercise boundaries under negative rates, using modified fixed point method.
result Successfully developed and validated a new algorithm for pricing American options under negative rates.
Adaptive sampling theory has shown that, with proper assumptions on the signal class, algorithms exist to reconstruct a signal in Rd with an optimal number of samples. We generalize this problem to the case of spatial signals, where the sampling cost is a function of both the number of samples taken and t…
New method uses topological data analysis for better change point detection.
problem Detecting change points in time series data.
method Integrates topological data analysis with existing nonparametric change point detection methods.
result Enhanced detection accuracy of change point locations.
In-BO optimizes complex constrained domains using SIn-GP surrogate models.
problem Optimizing in complex constrained domains with irregular shapes.
method Sparse Intrinsic Gaussian Processes (SIn-GP) on manifolds with heat kernel estimation.
result In-BO outperforms traditional BO in complex constrained domains.
Paper presents a collaborative learning model to improve QoE models without sharing sensitive data.
problem Limited data volume and participant profiles lead to over-fitting and poor generalization of QoE models.
method Round-Robin based Collaborative Machine Learning training without sharing datasets.
result The proposed model outperforms conventional centralized and isolated learning methods.
LSTM models with DI enhance streamflow forecasts across diverse regions.
problem Challenges in integrating varied discharge measurements for accurate streamflow forecasts.
method Flexible data integration (DI) using LSTM models with CNN units for lagged inputs.
result DI significantly improved streamflow forecast performance, reaching record efficiency coefficients.
Viewing a data set such as the clouds of Jupiter, coherence is readily apparent to human observers, especially the Great Red Spot, but also other great storms and persistent structures. There are now many different definitions and perspectives mathematically describing coherent structures, but we will take an image pro…
Study reveals DNNs prefer easy-to-learn cues over essential ones in image recognition.
problem DNNs learn easy-to-learn features that aren't essential to the task.
method WCST-ML training setup with shortcut cues on synthetic and face datasets.
result DNNs converge to solutions focusing on preferred cues, leading to flat minima.
This paper speeds up WMD computation for multiple queries efficiently.
problem Efficiently computing the semantic dissimilarity between text documents.
method Adapting the Sinkhorn-Knopp algorithm to compute WMD of one document against many targets in parallel.
result 67x speedup on 96 cores compared to sequential and naive parallel methods.
Introduces resemblance structure for large scale geometry.
problem Defining similarity in large scale geometry.
method Axiomatizing the concept of resemblance for subsets of a set.
result Large scale resemblance structures can induce nearness and generalize large scale properties.
Minimal surfaces with negative curvature found in large spheres.
problem Existence of minimal surfaces with negative curvature in large dimensional spheres.
method Applied Song's strategy to closed Riemann surfaces with large automorphism groups, resulting in almost hyperbolic minimal surfaces.
result Existence of closed minimal surfaces with negative induced curvature in any sphere of large dimension.
Ranky solves SVD for large sparse matrices in distributed systems.
problem Rank problem in large sparse matrices for SVD.
method Distributed approach to solve rank problem.
result Recovers SVD with negligible error for large sparse matrices.
Study shows HFT benefits large traders under certain conditions.
problem Influence of high-frequency traders (HFTs) on large traders.
method Analyzes the impact of HFT front-running on large traders under different conditions.
result HFT benefits large traders when there is high-speed noise trading and vague HFT predictions.
Study large deviations in life insurance portfolios without identical distributions.
problem Large deviations in life insurance portfolios with bounded losses and variances.
method Upper bound from standard large deviations, counterexample for full large deviation principle.
result Exponential bound for average loss exceeding a threshold.
Large knots have very varied boundary slopes.
problem Understanding the variability of boundary slopes in knots.
method Analyzing alternating knots and their boundary slopes.
result The ratio of boundary slope diameter to crossing number can be arbitrarily large.
Large batch training improves deep learning performance without needing warmup.
problem Slow convergence at early epochs in large batch training.
method Proposes CLARS algorithm and analyzes convergence rate.
result Proposed algorithm outperforms gradual warmup and state-of-the-art large-batch optimizers.
IVON optimizes large neural networks, matching or outperforming Adam.
problem The inefficacy of variational learning in large neural networks.
method Improved Variational Online Newton (IVON) optimizer.
result IVON consistently matches or outperforms Adam for large networks.
An extra large metric is a spherical cone metric with all cone angles greater than 2 pi and every closed geodesic longer than 2pi. We show that every two-dimensional extra large metric can be triangulated with vertices at cone points only. The argument implies the same result for Euclidean and hyperbolic cone metrics, …
Large deviations for fat tailed distributions, i.e. those that decay slower than exponential, are not only relatively likely, but they also occur in a rather peculiar way where a finite fraction of the whole sample deviation is concentrated on a single variable. The regime of large deviations is separated from the regi…
Study large deviations for hypoelliptic diffusion on sub-Riemannian manifolds.
problem Large deviations for hypoelliptic diffusion measures on sub-Riemannian manifolds.
method Rough path theory and manifold-valued Malliavin calculus.
result Proved a large deviation principle for pinned hypoelliptic diffusion measures.
Extends saddle-point method for large-time volatility smiles.
problem Analyzing large-time volatility smiles in financial models.
method Saddle-point approach to derive large-time model-implied volatility smiles.
result Provides theoretical foundation and wide class of arbitrage-free parametrizations.
SNGM improves large-batch training accuracy.
problem Improving generalization in large-batch training.
method Stochastic Normalized Gradient Descent with Momentum.
result SNGM achieves better test accuracy than MSGD and other large-batch methods.
GD with large init shows incremental learning in matrix factorization.
problem Understanding GD's behavior with large initial values in matrix factorization.
method Signal-to-noise ratio concepts and inductive arguments.
result Uncovering an incremental learning phenomenon in GD with large initialization.
DReg boosts large-batch SGD's generalization and convergence.
problem Large-batch SGD struggles with generalization in deep learning.
method DReg replicates a layer to encourage parameter diversity.
result DReg improves generalization and convergence with large-batch SGD.
Paper proves large deviation principle for stochastic approximations.
problem Asymptotic estimates of learning algorithm deviations.
method Weak convergence approach to large deviations.
result Identifies appropriate scaling sequence and new representation for rate function.
As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and computational tools for the quantification of such phenomena. Limiting analysis such as …
Study shows how large neural networks avoid overfitting through decoupling of feature learning and complexity growth.
problem Understanding inductive bias and generalization in large neural networks.
method Dynamical mean field theory applied to large two-layer networks.
result Training dynamics of large networks exhibit a separation of timescales, decoupling feature learning and overfitting.
Study rolling dynamics with random slipping and twisting using large deviation principles.
problem Analyzing the stability of a rolling model with random slipping and twisting.
method Modelled as a stochastic differential equation on the orthonormal frame bundle, examined via large deviations.
result Proved large deviation principles for projection curves and their horizontal lifts on the base manifold.
Hierarchical Softmax approximates class probabilities for large datasets efficiently.
problem Computational inefficiency of Softmax for large-scale classification tasks.
method Used Hierarchical Softmax to approximate class probabilities efficiently.
result Hierarchical Softmax performance degrades as the number of classes increases.
We study large deviations and rare default clustering events in a dynamic large heterogeneous portfolio of interconnected components. Defaults come as Poisson events and the default intensities of the different components in the system interact through the empirical default rate and via systematic effects that are comm…
Large learning rates enhance model robustness and compressibility.
problem Achieving robustness and resource-efficiency in machine learning models.
method Identifying and utilizing large learning rates as a facilitator for robustness and compressibility.
result Large learning rates produce desirable representation properties and compare favorably to other methods.
Large traders disrupt the market's long-term memory of order signs.
problem Long-term memory of market order signs is weakened by large traders.
method Analyzed over 6.7 billion trades to investigate the impact of large investment funds on market order dynamics.
result The long-term memory of market order signs is weaker when large investment funds trade in a directional manner and when their participation is high.
Study large deviations in random walks on Lie groups.
problem Large deviations in sub-Riemannian random walks.
method Prove large deviation principle for random walks on stratified Lie groups.
result Proved a large deviation principle with a rate function adapted to sub-Riemannian geometry.
We study the concept of coarse disjointness and large scale n-to-1 functions. As a byproduct, we obtain an Ostrand-type characterization of asymptotic dimension for coarse structures. It is shown that properties like finite asymptotic dimension, coarse finitism, large scale weak paracompactness, ect. are all invari…
Study large deviations in fractional volatility models with non-Gaussian volatility.
problem Large deviations in fractional volatility models with non-Gaussian volatility.
method Established a small-noise large deviation principle for log-price.
result Logarithmic call price asymptotics for large strikes in a special case.
In these notes, we present some methods and applications of large deviations to finance and insurance. We begin with the classical ruin problem related to the Cramer's theorem and give en extension to an insurance model with investment in stock market. We then describe how large deviation approximation and importance s…
Study on implied volatility of an affine jump-diffusion model.
problem Characterize implied volatility of an affine jump-diffusion model.
method Explicit moment generating function derived from solving ODEs; large deviation principle applied.
result Asymptotic behaviors of implied volatility in large-maturity and large-strike regimes characterized.
GNTK reveals convergence of GNNs on large graphs.
problem Understanding and optimizing GNNs on large graphs.
method Graph Neural Tangent Kernels (GNTK) and graphons.
result GNTKs converge to graphon NTKs on large graphs, enabling task inference.
Paper presents an efficient algorithm for learning minimax risk classifiers with large-scale data.
problem Efficient learning of minimax risk classifiers for large-scale data with multiple classes.
method Combination of constraint and column generation for efficient learning.
result 10x speedup for general large-scale data and 100x speedup with many classes.
Wider neural networks perform better with large batches.
problem Communication overheads in small-batch training.
method Theoretical analysis and experiments on neural networks.
result Wider networks are more suitable for large-batch training.