Large language models improve futures market factor models in China.
problem Designing effective factor models for Chinese futures markets.
method Used large language models (GPT) to generate 40 factors for single and multi-factor portfolios.
result GPT-generated factors outperform benchmarks with high Sharpe ratios and alphas.
EFS uses LLMs to optimize sparse portfolios by evolving alpha factors.
problem Sparse portfolio optimization in dynamic market regimes.
method Evolutionary feedback loop with LLM-generated alpha factors.
result Significantly outperforms baselines in diverse datasets.
MGLM models all possible language channel factorizations for improved multilingual generation.
problem Generating multilingual text with flexibility and quality.
method Generative joint distribution model over language channels, marginalizing all possible factorizations.
result MGLM outperforms traditional models in multilingual generation tasks.
This paper explores how combining quantitative factors and news from LLMs improves stock return prediction.
problem Improving stock return prediction using quantitative factors and news.
method Introduces a fusion learning framework to learn unified representations from factors and LLM-generated newsflow, comparing combination, summation, and attentive methods. Explores mixture models and decoupled training approaches.
result Effective multimodal modeling of factors and news improves stock return prediction and selection.
Recent work has studied the emergence of language among deep reinforcement learning agents that must collaborate to solve a task. Of particular interest are the factors that cause language to be compositional -- i.e., express meaning by combining words which themselves have meaning. Evolutionary linguists have found th…
Study evaluates LLMs for predicting Chinese stock movements using financial news sentiments.
problem Evaluating LLMs' ability to predict stock price movements using financial news sentiments.
method Standardized experimental procedure with three LLMs, each with unique performance enhancement methods.
result Developed quantitative trading strategies and conducted back-tests to assess LLMs' performance.
In this paper, we design an integrated algorithm to evaluate the sentiment of Chinese market. Firstly, with the help of the web browser automation, we crawl a lot of news and comments from several influential financial websites automatically. Secondly, we use techniques of Natural Language Processing(NLP) under Chinese…
StockAgent uses AI to simulate real-world stock trading, analyzing external factors and profitability.
problem Investors need to understand how external factors affect stock trading.
method Developed StockAgent, a multi-agent system driven by large language models.
result Identified how external factors impact trading behavior and profitability.
MCPCA analyzes shared factors across multiple data contexts.
problem No tools to recover shared factors across multiple contexts.
method Developed a theoretical and algorithmic framework (MCPCA).
result Reveals shared axes of variation across subsets of contexts.
Large language models have recently achieved state of the art performance across a wide variety of natural language tasks. Meanwhile, the size of these models and their latency have significantly increased, which makes their usage costly, and raises an interesting question: do language models need to be large? We study…
In this paper, we consider several compression techniques for the language modeling problem based on recurrent neural networks (RNNs). It is known that conventional RNNs, e.g, LSTM-based networks in language modeling, are characterized with either high space complexity or substantial inference time. This problem is esp…
Many recent works have discussed the propensity, or lack thereof, for emergent languages to exhibit properties of natural languages. A favorite in the literature is learning compositionality. We note that most of those works have focused on communicative bandwidth as being of primary importance. While important, it is …
We study how language on social media is linked to diseases such as atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD), diabetes and various types of cancer. Our proposed model leverages state-of-the-art sentence embeddings, followed by a regression model and clustering, without the need of additional labelled data. It allows to pred…
Alpha-GPT mines new trading signals with human-AI interaction.
problem Mining new alphas for effective trading signals.
method Human-AI interaction and prompt engineering algorithmic framework.
result Demonstrates Alpha-GPT's effectiveness in generating creative, insightful, and effective alphas.
Paper uses NLP and IRT to score ESG factors from news articles.
problem Lack of precise ESG metrics in finance.
method Combines NLP and IRT models on ESG-related news data.
result Method offers more precise ESG metrics with temporal dynamics.
Enhances LLM quantization with MDBF, improving perplexity and accuracy.
problem Limited performance of Double Binary Factorization in extreme quantization.
method Introduces Multi-envelope DBF, retaining sign matrices and replacing single envelope with rank-l envelope. result Improves perplexity and zero-shot accuracy over previous binary formats.
Paper uses news data to model asset correlations without market data.
problem Traditional risk models rely on market data; this paper offers an alternative.
method Uses encoder-only language models to embed news data, then calculates asset return distributions and covariance through Energy Distance.
result Established connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements using Energy Distance.
The study uncovers latent capabilities of language models via causal representation learning.
problem Rigorous causal evaluations of language model capabilities are challenging due to confounding effects and computational costs.
method Proposes a causal representation learning framework to identify latent capability factors as causally interrelated after controlling for a common confounder (base model).
result Identifies a three-node linear causal structure explaining performance variations across 1500 models and six benchmarks.
Study analyzes AI's impact on firms, markets, and workers using large language model data.
problem Understanding AI's effect on firms, markets, and workers.
method Used 380 trillion tokens from 400+ large language models to analyze AI's impact.
result Firms with higher AI exposure earn higher returns, creating an AI premium.
This study applies neural models to automatically recognize medical entities from natural language.
problem Automated recognition of medical entities from natural language is complex and time-consuming.
method Utilizes deep neural sequence models trained on a large dataset of death certificates.
result Deep neural models can efficiently recognize medical entities from natural language.
This paper introduces our solution to the 2018 Duolingo Shared Task on Second Language Acquisition Modeling (SLAM). We used deep factorization machines, a wide and deep learning model of pairwise relationships between users, items, skills, and other entities considered. Our solution (AUC 0.815) hopefully managed to bea…
This paper addresses the problem of predicting duration of unplanned power outages, using historical outage records to train a series of neural network predictors. The initial duration prediction is made based on environmental factors, and it is updated based on incoming field reports using natural language processing …
A new prior is proposed for learning representations of high-level concepts of the kind we manipulate with language. This prior can be combined with other priors in order to help disentangling abstract factors from each other. It is inspired by cognitive neuroscience theories of consciousness, seen as a bottleneck thro…
System learns to combine multiple model components for personalized text generation.
problem Adapting and biasing language models for personal preferences.
method Combines model-defined components, learns activation and probability combination from unlabeled text.
result Directly generates text with personalized components from unlabeled data.
The study examines cross-border lending behavior from G7 countries, showing changes in driving factors after the 2008 financial crisis.
problem Understanding the factors affecting cross-border lending behavior among G7 countries.
method Employed a gravity model to analyze bilateral and global factors influencing cross-border lending.
result Driving factors for cross-border lending have changed since the 2008 financial crisis, with continent variable becoming more significant.
A wide class of machine learning algorithms can be reduced to variable elimination on factor graphs. While factor graphs provide a unifying notation for these algorithms, they do not provide a compact way to express repeated structure when compared to plate diagrams for directed graphical models. To exploit efficient t…
Our usage of language is not solely reliant on cognition but is arguably determined by myriad external factors leading to a global variability of linguistic patterns. This issue, which lies at the core of sociolinguistics and is backed by many small-scale studies on face-to-face communication, is addressed here by cons…
Improved speech recognition with language model integration in sequence-to-sequence models.
problem Improving word error rate in speech recognition models.
method Log-linear combination of acoustic and language models with per-token renormalization.
result The proposed method shows good improvements over standard model combination on Librispeech system.
Adam outperforms gradient descent on language models due to handling heavy-tailed class imbalance.
problem Heavy-tailed class imbalance in language tasks.
method Comparing Adam and gradient descent on various architectures and data types, focusing on the impact of class imbalance.
result Class imbalance causes slow convergence for gradient descent, while Adam and sign-based methods are less affected.
PACE optimizes training for averaged language models, improving performance.
problem How to optimize training for averaged language model iterates.
method Formulated as an optimal-control problem, solved for minimizing error of the average with a penalty on intervention size.
result PACE improves the limiting squared error of the iterate-average estimator by an arbitrarily large factor on some instances.
Automates model comparison in probabilistic programming.
problem Manual derivations for model comparison are error-prone and time-consuming.
method Message passing on a Forney-style factor graph with a custom mixture node.
result Automates Bayesian model averaging, selection, and combination.
CausalEvolve improves efficiency and discovery in open-ended scientific tasks.
problem Lack of targeted guidance and knowledge organization in evolve-based agents.
method Causal scratchpad that identifies and reasons about guiding factors for evolution.
result Effective improvement in evolutionary efficiency and better solutions.
The topology of symplectic 4-manifolds is related to that of singular plane curves via the concept of branched covers. Thus, various classification problems concerning symplectic 4-manifolds can be reformulated as questions about singular plane curves. Moreover, using braid monodromy, these can in turn be reformulated …
New diffusion models can generate text faster than traditional autoregressive models.
problem The slow generation time of autoregressive models.
method Theoretical analysis of diffusion language models using information theory.
result The sampling error in diffusion models decays with fewer iterations than the text sequence length.
AlphaForgeBench evaluates LLMs as quantitative researchers, not trading agents, to address instability in financial decision-making.
problem Behavioral instability of LLMs in sequential decision-making under financial uncertainty.
method Proposes AlphaForgeBench, a framework that requires LLMs to generate executable alpha factors and compose factor-based trading strategies.
result Eliminates execution-induced instability and provides a rigorous benchmark for evaluating financial reasoning.
The study compares feed-forward and attention layers in language models.
problem Understanding the role of feed-forward and attention layers in language models.
method Empirical and theoretical analysis in a synthetic setting.
result Feed-forward layers learn simple distributional associations, while attention layers focus on in-context reasoning.
Large language models correlate in errors, even with different architectures and providers.
problem Lack of empirical evidence on whether different large language models differ meaningfully.
method Empirical evaluation of over 350 large language models using two leaderboards and a resume-screening task.
result Large language models have substantial correlation in errors, even with distinct architectures and providers.
Proposes an iterative algorithm for optimizing attention mechanisms in large language models.
problem Optimizing attention mechanisms in large language models.
method Iterative algorithm for rescaled hyperbolic functions regression.
result Efficiency and generalizability of the rescaled softmax regression framework.
Efforts to understand the generalization mystery in deep learning have led to the belief that gradient-based optimization induces a form of implicit regularization, a bias towards models of low "complexity." We study the implicit regularization of gradient descent over deep linear neural networks for matrix completion …
LLM-Lasso uses LLMs to improve feature selection in Lasso regression.
problem Improving feature selection in Lasso regression with domain-specific knowledge.
method Combines LLMs with Lasso regularization to generate feature weights.
result Outperforms standard Lasso and feature selection baselines in biomedical studies.
LLMs struggle with financial reasoning but can outperform the market with human oversight.
problem Financial reasoning failures in LLM-generated stock market predictions.
method Evaluated four LLMs using three prompting strategies and compared to human oversight.
result LLMs require human oversight to fully realize their potential in financial markets.
Analyzes word vectors and co-occurrence statistics in NLP models.
problem Understanding biases in NLP models through co-occurrence statistics.
method Developed an analytic model of statistics learned by Word2Vec and GloVe, derived the first solution to Word2Vec's algorithm, and analyzed independence in co-occurrence models.
result Demonstrated a universal property of word vectors that can reveal biases in data before they are absorbed by DL models.
FAQ efficiently evaluates LLMs with statistical guarantees using adaptive query selection.
problem Efficiently evaluating many LLMs on a large suite of benchmarks is expensive.
method FAQ uses Bayesian factor models, adaptive sampling, and proactive active inference to select queries.
result FAQ delivers up to 5x effective sample size gains over baselines, matching CI width with fewer queries.
A new framework evaluates large language models efficiently and accurately.
problem Evaluation of large language models is challenging due to stochasticity and heterogeneity of benchmarks.
method Interpretable and scalable framework based on Item Response Theory (IRT) and majorization-minimization principle.
result Our method achieves superior scalability and interpretability compared to existing approaches.
This paper studies activation sparsity in large language models, finding key trends and implications.
problem Activation sparsity in large language models (LLMs) can be improved for efficiency and interpretability.
method Proposes PPL-p% sparsity, analyzes trends with training data, width-depth ratio, and parameter scale. result ReLU is more efficient for sparsity than SiLU, and deeper architectures can improve sparsity.
NeuralFactors uses deep learning to improve factor analysis in equity modeling.
problem Enhancing classical factor models for better risk forecasting and portfolio construction.
method Introduces a novel machine-learning approach (NeuralFactors) that outputs factor exposures and returns, trained using variational autoencoders.
result NeuralFactors outperforms prior approaches in log-likelihood performance and computational efficiency.
Predict stock price movements using financial data and news articles with LLMs.
problem Predicting stock price movements using financial data and news articles.
method Combining financial data and news articles, employing pre-trained LLMs, and using retrieval augmentation techniques.
result Predicted stock price movements with a weighted F1-score of 58.5% and 59.1%.
New study finds best language model architecture and pretraining objective for zero-shot tasks.
problem Evaluating which language model architectures and pretraining objectives best enable zero-shot generalization.
method Compared three model architectures and two pretraining objectives across 170 billion tokens, with and without finetuning.
result Causal decoder-only models trained on autoregressive language modeling exhibit strongest zero-shot generalization.