A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
PliableBVS extends Bayesian lasso for modeling interactions with modifying variables.
The timeliness of detection of a sepsis event in progress is a crucial factor in the outcome for the patient. Machine learning models built from data in electronic health records can be used as an effective tool for improving this timeliness, but so far the potential for clinical implementations has been largely limite…
Study compares employers with and without anticipating strategic labor force responses.
Prediction of disease onset from patient survey and lifestyle data is quickly becoming an important tool for diagnosing a disease before it progresses. In this study, data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) questionnaire is used to predict the onset of type II diabetes. An ensemble model…
The paper examines optimal annuitization for retirees with potential post-retirement work.
Voice Onset Time (VOT), a key measurement of speech for basic research and applied medical studies, is the time between the onset of a stop burst and the onset of voicing. When the voicing onset precedes burst onset the VOT is negative; if voicing onset follows the burst, it is positive. In this work, we present a deep…
Labor productivity in Turkey, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, and New Zealand has been analyzed and modeled. These counties extend the previously analyzed set of the US, UK, Japan, France, Italy, and Canada. Modelling is based on the link between the rate of labor participation and real GDP per capita. New result…
Unified framework explains retirement and annuitization decisions under age-dependent mortality.
Labor productivity was studied at the microscopic level in terms of distributions based on individual firm financial data from Japan and the US. A power-law distribution in terms of firms and sector productivity was found in both countries' data. The labor productivities were not equal for nation and sectors, in contra…
Method detects lithium-ion battery knee onset for early warning.
We advance the state of the art in polyphonic piano music transcription by using a deep convolutional and recurrent neural network which is trained to jointly predict onsets and frames. Our model predicts pitch onset events and then uses those predictions to condition framewise pitch predictions. During inference, we r…
Labor productivity in developed countries is analyzed and modeled. Modeling is based on our previous finding that the rate of labor force participation is a unique function of GDP per capita. Therefore, labor productivity is fully determined by the rate of economic growth, and thus, is a secondary economic variable. In…
Automatic Music Transcription (AMT) is one of the oldest and most well-studied problems in the field of music information retrieval. Within this challenging research field, onset detection and instrument recognition take important places in transcription systems, as they respectively help to determine exact onset times…
We show that an economic system populated by multiple agents generates an equilibrium distribution in the form of multiple scaling laws of conditional PDFs, which are sufficient for characterizing the probability distribution. The existence of the double scaling law is demonstrated empirically for the sales and the lab…
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, p(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 was found for developed economies. For the USA, A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE) of 0.8% at a two-year horizon for the period between 1965 and 2002 (the best amon…
Groups of firms often achieve a competitive advantage through the formation of geo-industrial clusters. Although many exemplary clusters, such as Hollywood or Silicon Valley, have been frequently studied, systematic approaches to identify and analyze the hierarchical structure of the geo-industrial clusters at the glob…
Optimal annuitization strategy depends on age, labor income, and mortality risk.
In this paper we present a Recurrent neural networks (RNN) based architecture that achieves an AUCROC of 0.9147 for predicting the onset of Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) 15 months in advance using a 12-month observation window on a large cohort of 216,394 patients. We believe this to be the largest study in CHF onset …
The persistence of racial inequality in the U.S. labor market against a general backdrop of formal equality of opportunity is a troubling phenomenon that has significant ramifications on the design of hiring policies. In this paper, we show that current group disparate outcomes may be immovable even when hiring decisio…
Bayesian models link multiview data to outcomes.
The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between inter-industry, intra-industry and inter-regional clustering and demand for labor by companies in Portugal. Is expected at the outset that there is more demand for work where the agglomeration is greater. It should be noted, as a summary conclusion, the resul…
UBI model proves financial equilibrium exists.
GMMSEQ clusters AE data streams, identifying cluster onsets and growth.
Dual labor market model explains low inflation despite low unemployment.
Study shows Lula's Zero Hunger program reduced income inequality in Brazil.
The evolution of the rate of price inflation and unemployment in Japan has been modeled within the Phillips curve framework. As an extension to the Phillips curve, we represent both variables as linear functions of the change rate of labor force. All models were first estimated in 2005 for the period between 1980 and 2…
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation, unemployment and labor force change rate, p(t)=A0UE(t-t0)+A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+ A2, where A0, A1, and A2 are empirical country-specific coefficients, was found for developed economies. The relationship obtained for France is characterized by A0=-1, A1=4, A2=0.095, t0=…
We present a practical health-theme machine learning (ML) application concerning `AI for social good' domain for `Producing Good Outcomes' track. In particular, the solution is concerning the problem of a potential elderly adult dementia onset prediction in aging societies. The paper discusses our attempt and encouragi…
Study uses high-frequency data to predict ruble depreciation during crisis.
Deep learning predicts employment changes and industry health.
Many of the recent approaches to polyphonic piano note onset transcription require training a machine learning model on a large piano database. However, such approaches are limited by dataset availability; additional training data is difficult to produce, and proposed systems often perform poorly on novel recording con…
A new method for combining multiple data views in supervised learning.
Method identifies financial rogue waves close to their onset.
Circadian rhythms influence multiple essential biological activities including sleep, performance, and mood. The dim light melatonin onset (DLMO) is the gold standard for measuring human circadian phase (i.e., timing). The collection of DLMO is expensive and time-consuming since multiple saliva or blood samples are req…
Developed a cost and revenue model for HEMS to estimate breakeven transport volumes under different reimbursement and labor cost assumptions.
We introduce a toy probabilistic model to analyze job-matching processes in recent Japanese labor markets for university graduates by means of statistical physics. We show that the aggregation probability of each company is rewritten by means of non-linear map under several conditions. Mathematical treatment of the map…
We consider an infinite horizon portfolio problem with borrowing constraints, in which an agent receives labor income which adjusts to financial market shocks in a path dependent way. This path-dependency is the novelty of the model, and leads to an infinite dimensional stochastic optimal control problem. We solve the …
Labor market institutions are central for modern economies, and their polices can directly affect unemployment rates and economic growth. At the individual level, unemployment often has a detrimental impact on people's well-being and health. At the national level, high employment is one of the central goals of any econ…
The evolution of inflation, p(t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Japan has been modeled. Both variables were represented as linear functions of the change rate of labor force, dLF/LF. These models provide an accurate description of disinflation in the 1990s and a deflationary period in the 2000s. In Japan, there exists a …
A theory for the evolution of a metric driven by the equations of three-dimensional continuum mechanics is developed. This metric in turn allows for the local existence of an evolving three-dimensional Riemannian manifold immersed in the six-dimensional Euclidean space. The Nash-Kuiper theorem is then applied to th…
New method detects careless responding in long surveys.
This paper describes an agent-based model of interacting firms, in which interacting firm agents rationally invest capital and labor in order to maximize payoff. Both transactions and production are taken into account in this model. First, the performance of individual firms on a real transaction network was simulated.…
BoXHED boosts hazard estimation for dynamic health risk scores.
The study explains delayed spikes in batch-normalized models.
We present a sparse and invariant representation with low asymptotic complexity for robust unsupervised transient and onset zone detection in noisy environments. This unsupervised approach is based on wavelet transforms and leverages the scattering network from Mallat et al. by deriving frequency invariance. This frequ…
Detecting depression early from social media texts.
We review the production function and the hypothesis of equilibrium in the neoclassical framework. We notify that in a soup of sectors in economy, while capital and labor resemble extensive variables, wage and rate of return on capital act as intensive variables. As a result, Baumol and Bowen's statement of equal wages…
We propose an algorithm for electrocardiogram (ECG) segmentation using a UNet-like full-convolutional neural network. The algorithm receives an arbitrary sampling rate ECG signal as an input, and gives a list of onsets and offsets of P and T waves and QRS complexes as output. Our method of segmentation differs from oth…