New tools for uncertainty in dynamical systems without distribution assumptions.
problem Uncertainty representation in dynamical systems without distributional assumptions.
method Kernel mean embedding and kernel probabilistic programming.
result Distribution-free representation, comparison, and propagation of uncertainties.
A novel Laplace-approximated Bayesian Tensor Network Kernel Machine (LA-TNKM) provides principled uncertainty estimates.
problem How to provide principled uncertainty estimates for tensor network kernel machines.
method Employing a linearized Laplace approximation for Bayesian inference.
result Consistently matches or surpasses Gaussian Processes and BNNs across diverse UCI regression benchmarks.
The paper introduces a new framework to assess generative model uncertainty.
problem Lack of a theoretical framework for assessing generative models' generalization and uncertainty.
method Bias-variance-covariance decomposition for kernel scores, with unbiased and consistent estimators.
result Kernel-based variance and entropy for uncertainty estimation are more predictive than existing methods.
New method distinguishes data noise from GP uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in kernel regression with non-Gaussian noise.
method Wiener chaos expansions for non-Gaussian noise.
result Can distinguish aleatoric from epistemic uncertainty.
Efficiently marginalizes over Gaussian Process kernels for better model flexibility and uncertainty.
problem Inefficient marginalization over Gaussian Process kernels for large datasets.
method Bayesian Quadrature scheme with maximum mean discrepancies and invariances between Spectral Mixture kernels.
result Achieves more accurate predictions and better calibrated uncertainty than state-of-the-art baselines.
Paper defines kernels for fuzzy sets, useful in machine learning.
problem Uncertainty in data with fuzzy set membership.
method Defined cross product, intersection, non-singleton, and distance-based kernels.
result Kernels improve machine learning tasks with fuzzy data.
New method quantifies uncertainty in kernel models without distributional assumptions.
problem Uncertainty quantification in kernel methods without strong distributional assumptions.
method Gradient perturbation to extract uncertainty information.
result Exact, non-asymptotic confidence regions for kernel models.
A new method reduces Volterra kernel complexity and uncertainty quantification.
problem Challenges in modeling nonlinear systems with Volterra series due to high model order.
method Bayesian Tensor Network Volterra kernel machines (BTN-V) using canonical polyadic decomposition.
result Competitive accuracy, enhanced uncertainty quantification, and reduced computational cost.
This work explores variably scaled kernels to improve non-stationary Gaussian processes.
problem Limited ability of stationary kernels to represent heterogeneous correlation structures.
method Introduces variably scaled kernels to modify correlation structures explicitly.
result Improved reconstruction accuracy and better uncertainty estimates for non-stationary data.
A new method combines deep kernels with Gaussian processes to avoid overfitting.
problem Losing Bayesian benefits in deep kernel learning due to kernel optimization.
method Using Infinite-width neural networks and Neural Network Gaussian Process (NNGP) as a guide for DKL optimization.
result Robustness to overfitting and good predictive performance on various datasets.
BayesIMP combines multiple causal graphs to estimate average treatment effects with uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty quantification in causal inference from multiple datasets.
method Bayesian Interventional Mean Processes (BayesIMP) integrating probabilistic integration and kernel mean embeddings.
result Improvements in average treatment effect estimation over state-of-the-art methods.
A new method for self-attention models that improves uncertainty estimation.
problem Overconfident predictions and lack of calibrated uncertainty in Transformers.
method Kernel-Eigen Pair Sparse Variational Gaussian Processes (KEP-SVGP) with Kernel SVD (KSVD) to handle asymmetry of attention kernels.
result Reduction in time complexity and improved performance on various benchmarks.
New method speeds up uncertainty estimation for large datasets in causal inference.
problem Computational infeasibility of bootstrap-based uncertainty quantification for large datasets.
method Extends cBLB algorithm to kernel methods, combining subsampling and resampling.
result Achieves computational scalability with nominal coverage.
New method for neural network uncertainty quantification using empirical Neural Tangent Kernel.
problem Accurately quantify uncertainty in neural network predictions.
method Post-hoc, sampling-based approach using gradient-descent on linearized networks.
result Method effectively approximates Gaussian process posterior and outperforms existing methods in efficiency and accuracy.
A new kernel improves Gaussian process performance for non-stationary data.
problem Poor prediction and uncertainty quantification with standard GPs.
method Study and comparison of non-stationary kernels, propose a new combined kernel.
result A new kernel outperforms existing stationary and non-stationary kernels.
A novel framework quantifies uncertainty using proper scores for various tasks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for reliable applications.
method Proposes a general framework based on proper scores for epistemic, aleatoric uncertainty, and model calibration.
result Achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation for large language models and generative models.
Meta-learning improves Gaussian process uncertainty estimation.
problem Poor uncertainty estimation in Gaussian processes with deep kernels.
method Meta-learning to calibrate deep kernel GPs using task-specific uncalibrated and calibrated distributions.
result Improves uncertainty estimation performance with high regression performance.
GP model calibration improves optimization algorithm performance.
problem GP model uncertainty calibration issues degrade optimization performance.
method Kernel validation procedure to calibrate GP predictions.
result Proper calibration enhances optimization algorithm convergence.
New method quantifies uncertainty in distributed regression.
problem Large datasets make traditional regression techniques ineffective.
method Data-driven approach to uncertainty quantification for averaged estimator.
result Rigorous theoretical guarantees for sup-norm consistency.
GeometricKernels package implements kernels for uncertain data on graphs, manifolds, and meshes.
problem Defining and computing kernels for structured data on graphs, manifolds, and meshes.
method Implementation of geometric analogs of Euclidean kernels (heat and Matérn) with automatic differentiation support.
result Ability to compute Fourier-feature-type expansions on geometric spaces.
K-StoNet improves neural networks by avoiding local minima and assessing uncertainty.
problem Local minima and prediction uncertainty in deep neural networks.
method Combines SVR with latent variable model, using RBF kernel for feature space mapping and IRO algorithm for training.
result The model asymptotically converges to the global optimum and assesses prediction uncertainty easily.
A new Lévy process kernel model for robust function extrapolation.
problem Kernel uncertainty in Gaussian process predictions for long-range extrapolation.
method Modeling spectral mixture density with a Lévy process to form a distribution over kernels.
result Automatic and data-efficient learning, long-range extrapolation, and state-of-the-art predictive performance.
New framework quantifies uncertainty in data and models using RKHS.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in data and models.
method Projecting data into RKHS, transforming PDF, decomposing gradient flow.
result Decomposes uncertainty moments, providing discriminative resolution.
A new model improves uncertainty estimation in deep learning.
problem Deep Kernel Learning (DKL) produces unreliable uncertainty estimates.
method Proposed a bi-Lipschitz constraint to preserve distances in feature space.
result DUE model outperforms previous DKL and other methods in uncertainty quality.
Gradient boosting can be seen as Gaussian process inference.
problem Improving uncertainty estimates in out-of-domain detection.
method Gradient boosting reformulated as a kernel method converging to Gaussian process inference.
result Gradient boosting can provide better uncertainty estimates through Monte-Carlo estimation of posterior variance.
Physics Informed Deep Kernel Learning improves prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Limited performance of deep kernel learning due to scarce or insufficient data.
method Integrates physics knowledge represented by differential equations with latent sources into deep kernel learning.
result Advantages in prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification on synthetic and real-world datasets.
New bounds for kernel regression under non-Gaussian noise.
problem Uncertainty quantification for function estimates from noisy observations.
method Novel non-asymptotic probabilistic uniform error bounds for kernel-based regression.
result Proposed bounds apply to a broad class of non-Gaussian noise distributions.
Extends neural network training framework to handle noise and uncertainty.
problem Handling noise and uncertainty in neural network training.
method Integrates non-zero aleatoric noise and derives posterior covariance for epistemic uncertainty.
result Derives an estimator for posterior covariance, providing a handle on epistemic uncertainty.
This paper uses Nested Sampling to improve Gaussian Process uncertainty quantification.
problem Underestimating predictive uncertainty and overfitting in Gaussian Process models.
method Marginalises hyperparameters using Nested Sampling for spectral mixture kernels.
result Improves predictive performance and uncertainty quantification across various data sets.
Quantum models use complex Hilbert spaces for uncertainty.
problem Modeling dynamics in continuous-valued features.
method Quantum Graphical Models (QGMs) and Hilbert Space Embedding (HSE).
result HSE-HQMMs are competitive with state-of-the-art models.
Paper studies DRO with MMD uncertainty sets and reveals connections to regularization and generalization.
problem Addressing the limitations of existing DRO uncertainty sets in machine learning.
method Introduces DRO with uncertainty sets measured via maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) and derives connections to regularization and generalization.
result Obtains an alternative proof of a generalization bound for Gaussian kernel ridge regression via DRO lens and suggests a new regularizer.
PDE-DKL combines NNs and GPs for high-dimensional PDE problems.
problem High-dimensional PDE problems with scarce data.
method PDE-constrained Deep Kernel Learning (PDE-DKL) framework.
result High accuracy with reduced data requirements.
Bayesian deep convolutional GPs improve image classification accuracy.
problem Inaccurate uncertainty estimates in traditional GPs for image classification.
method Translation-insensitive convolutional kernel, multi-output GPs, Bayesian approach.
result Improved performance in single-layer and deep models.
New GP-based method improves uncertainty quantification for causal functions.
problem Challenges in quantifying uncertainty for causal effects, especially for entire functions.
method GP-based approach using inner-product of observational functions in RKHS, with tractable posterior moments and calibration.
result Improves uncertainty quantification while maintaining causal effect estimation performance.
RIO estimates uncertainty in NN predictions without changing model architecture.
problem Uncertainty estimation in NN point predictions.
method RIO uses a Gaussian Process with an I/O kernel to model NN residuals.
result RIO provides reliable uncertainty estimates and reduces prediction error.
Robust hypothesis testing designs a test for worst-case distributions using kernel methods.
problem Design a robust test for hypothesis testing under uncertainty sets.
method Data-driven uncertainty sets constructed using kernel mean embeddings and maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). Bayesian and Neyman-Pearson settings investigated.
result Proposed robust kernel tests are exponentially consistent and asymptotically optimal.
A two-stage GPR framework with automatic kernel search and subsampling improves prediction accuracy and efficiency.
problem Inaccurate predictions due to misspecified mean and kernel functions in Gaussian Process Regression.
method Two-stage GPR, automatic kernel search, subsampling for hyperparameter initialization.
result Competitive or better performance compared to full dataset training, robust on real-world datasets.
Enhances SVM for uncertain data with probabilistic Gaussian distributions.
problem Binary classification with uncertain data and error bounds.
method Probabilistic kernel Support Vector Machines using Gaussian distributions.
result Suitable kernel function for uncertain data.
Post-hoc uncertainty quantification improves on pre-trained neural networks without underfitting.
problem Uncertainty quantification in neural networks is underfitting or computationally demanding.
method Gaussian Process Activation function (GAPA) for neuron-level uncertainty, with two methods: GAPA-Free and GAPA-Variational.
result GAPA-Variational outperforms Laplace approximation on most datasets in uncertainty quantification metrics.
Proposes a new model for time-to-event prediction with uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of uncertainty in time-to-event predictions using recurrent neural networks.
method Deep Kernel Accelerated Failure Time models combining RNN and sparse Gaussian Process.
result Model delivers better uncertainty estimates compared to related methods.
Unified framework for selecting variables with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in nonlinear variable selection for various models.
method Develops a unified framework using integrated partial derivatives for quantifying variable importance and uncertainty.
result The approach provides a principled method for quantifying variable selection uncertainty and is generalizable to non-differentiable models.
Bayesian TNKMs automatically infer model complexity and feature relevance.
problem Manual tuning of TN rank and feature dimensions is error-prone and computationally expensive.
method Bayesian approach with hierarchical priors on TN factors for automatic rank and feature selection.
result Superior performance in prediction accuracy, uncertainty quantification, interpretability, and scalability.
DGPFM uses deep Gaussian processes to map functions accurately and quantify uncertainty.
problem Learning mappings between functional spaces, especially when data are noisy, sparse, or irregularly sampled.
method Constructs a sequence of GP-based linear and nonlinear transformations directly in function space, leveraging kernel integral transforms, GP conditional means, and nonlinear activations sampled from Gaussian processes.
result Empirical results show DGPFM outperforms existing methods in predictive accuracy and uncertainty calibration.
Bayesian neural networks with Mercer priors for interpretable uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification in neural networks, especially for complex input-to-output mappings.
method Introducing Mercer priors for BNNs, which approximate a specified GP and are scalable.
result BNNs with Mercer priors can approximate the uncertainty of a specified GP, making them interpretable and scalable.
Single model estimates ensemble uncertainty efficiently.
problem Efficient uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method Contextual similarity distillation, approximating ensemble variance with a single model.
result Single model estimates predictive variance with a single forward pass.
Improves robust transfer learning with side information.
problem Addressing environmental shift in MDPs with side information.
method Estimate-centered uncertainty sets with side information integration.
result Improved robust policy with reduced sub-optimality gap.
BARK optimizes black-box functions using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
problem Bayesian optimization of complex, black-box functions with uncertainty quantification.
method BART Kernel using tree agreement for posterior over piecewise-constant functions, explored using MCMC.
result BARK obtains samples of Gaussian processes for function distributions, enabling acquisition functions for optimization.
DBKs enable scalable GPs with tractable inference for large datasets.
problem Scaling Gaussian processes to large and complex datasets while maintaining tractable inference.
method DBKs constructed from neural-network-parameterized basis functions with explicit low-rank structure, enabling linear-complexity inference.
result DBKs provide a unified perspective and improve predictive accuracy, uncertainty quantification, and computational efficiency.