A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Kernel analog forecasting studied for multiscale systems.
Analog forecasting uses local dynamics to predict chaotic systems.
New method interprets machine learning forecasts as historical analogies.
Analog methods improve forecast accuracy in complex models.
Building on a specific formalization of analogical relationships of the form "A relates to B as C relates to D", we establish a connection between two important subfields of artificial intelligence, namely analogical reasoning and kernel-based machine learning. More specifically, we show that so-called analogical propo…
Signature kernel scoring rule improves weather forecasting by capturing temporal and spatial dependencies.
Quantum kernel improves probabilistic time series forecasting.
We propose a generic spatiotemporal event forecasting method, which we developed for the National Institute of Justice's (NIJ) Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge. Our method is a spatiotemporal forecasting model combining scalable randomized Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) methods for approximating Gaussian …
Kernel quadrature improves CRPS estimation for probabilistic time-series forecasting.
Unified kernel for prediction markets reduces belief variance forecast error.
Kernel methods improve geophysical forecasting accuracy and efficiency.
Quantum kernel improves solar irradiance forecasting.
New metrics improve probabilistic forecasting, especially for rare events.
The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) method tries to estimate the probability distribution of the future state of the atmosphere with a set of past observations that correspond to the best analogs of a deterministic Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). This model post-processing method has been successfully used to improve the fo…
Unified kernel framework extends to stochastic systems, improving numerical stability.
KKR uses Koopman theory to improve forecasting in complex systems.
KFT improves tensor forecasting by incorporating side information.
Analog arrays are a promising upcoming hardware technology with the potential to drastically speed up deep learning. Their main advantage is that they compute matrix-vector products in constant time, irrespective of the size of the matrix. However, early convolution layers in ConvNets map very unfavorably onto analog a…
PIML uses physics equations in machine learning for better forecasting.
Enhanced kernel framework for advanced data forecasting.
Improved forecasting for irregularly-sampled time series using kernel flows.
In machine learning, a nonparametric forecasting algorithm for time series data has been proposed, called the kernel spectral hidden Markov model (KSHMM). In this paper, we propose a technique for short-term wind-speed prediction based on KSHMM. We numerically compared the performance of our KSHMM-based forecasting tec…
The paper proposes a method to improve forecast combination accuracy using portfolio theory.
DeRegiME forecasts with regime structure, improving probabilistic predictions across various time series.
The paper introduces a fast algorithm for learning and forecasting nonlinear dynamics from noisy time series data.
Nonlinear kernel regression models are often used in statistics and machine learning because they are more accurate than linear models. Variable selection for kernel regression models is a challenge partly because, unlike the linear regression setting, there is no clear concept of an effect size for regression coeffici…
GP model for time series forecasting with priors.
Monge-Kantorovich distances, otherwise known as Wasserstein distances, have received a growing attention in statistics and machine learning as a powerful discrepancy measure for probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on forecasting a Gaussian process indexed by probability distributions. For this, we provid…
A reliable and accurate forecasting model for crop yields is of crucial importance for efficient decision-making process in the agricultural sector. However, due to weather extremes and uncertainties, most forecasting models for crop yield are not reliable and accurate. For measuring the uncertainty and obtaining furth…
Kernel Three-Pass Regression Filter improves forecasting efficiency for nonlinear dependencies.
The heat kernel for the Cauchy-Riemann subLaplacian on S(2n+1) is derived in a manner which is completely analogous to the classical derivation of elliptic heat kernels. This suggests that the classical hamiltonian construction of elliptic heat kernels, with appropriate modifications, does yield heat kernels for subell…
Strictly proper kernel scores are well-known tool in probabilistic forecasting, while characteristic kernels have been extensively investigated in the machine learning literature. We first show that both notions coincide, so that insights from one part of the literature can be used in the other. We then show that the m…
Bayesian optimization with Gaussian process as surrogate model has been successfully applied to analog circuit synthesis. In the traditional Gaussian process regression model, the kernel functions are defined explicitly. The computational complexity of training is O(N 3 ), and the computation complexity of prediction i…
A phase plot of the oil economy is built using the literature data of world oil production, price, and EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested). An analogy between the oil economy and the Benard convection is proposed; some methods of interpretation and forecast of the system behavior are also shown based on "phase p…
Develops a neural framework for probabilistic forecasting of dynamical systems.
Proves heat kernel superconvexity in hyperbolic space.
Wireless traffic prediction is a fundamental enabler to proactive network optimisation in beyond 5G. Forecasting extreme demand spikes and troughs due to traffic mobility is essential to avoiding outages and improving energy efficiency. Current state-of-the-art deep learning forecasting methods predominantly focus on o…
DeepEDM forecasts time series by learning dynamics from embeddings.
Traditional linear methods for forecasting multivariate time series are not able to satisfactorily model the non-linear dependencies that may exist in non-Gaussian series. We build on the theory of learning vector-valued functions in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space and develop a method for learning prediction func…
Hybrid approach improves crude oil price forecasting using multi-scale data.
This study assesses the influence of the forecast horizon on the forecasting performance of several machine learning techniques. We compare the fo recast accuracy of Support Vector Regression (SVR) to Neural Network (NN) models, using a linear model as a benchmark. We focus on international tourism demand to all sevent…
In this paper we use Gaussian Process (GP) regression to propose a novel approach for predicting volatility of financial returns by forecasting the envelopes of the time series. We provide a direct comparison of their performance to traditional approaches such as GARCH. We compare the forecasting power of three approac…
Study on online nonparametric regression using Sobolev kernel methods.
Efficiently combines probabilistic predictions using kernel embeddings.
LLM forecasting benchmarks suffer from information leakage, which confounds model performance.
We study a class of backtests for forecast distributions in which the test statistic depends on a spectral transformation that weights exceedance events by a function of the modeled probability level. The weighting scheme is specified by a kernel measure which makes explicit the user's priorities for model performance.…
DeepMIDE forecasts wind speeds across space, time, and height for offshore wind energy.
The smart grid vision entails advanced information technology and data analytics to enhance the efficiency, sustainability, and economics of the power grid infrastructure. Aligned to this end, modern statistical learning tools are leveraged here for electricity market inference. Day-ahead price forecasting is cast as a…