This paper develops a path-first theory using signatures and jump lifts for self-exiting processes.
problem Developing a universal coordinate system for various types of paths and processes.
method Using signatures, jump lifts, and expected signatures, the paper presents a geometricity framework with algebraic properties and obstructions.
result The framework links various mathematical concepts and offers four main contributions to understanding and modeling self-exiting processes.
In this article we propose a model for stochastic delay differential equation with jumps (SDDEJ) in a differentiable manifold M endowed with a connection ∇. In our model, the continuous part is driven by vector fields with a fixed delay and the jumps are assumed to come from a distinct source of (càdlàg) noise…
The paper studies horizontal semimartingales on Riemannian manifolds and their connections to Euclidean spaces.
problem Stochastic lifts and anti-developments of semimartingales on Riemannian manifolds.
method Using stochastic differential geometry with jumps, the paper establishes correspondences between discontinuous semimartingales and their lifts.
result The paper extends previous results to include geodesics and small jumps, enabling the construction of martingales from local martingales.
Extends PD-NJ-ODE to noisy observations and dependent observation times.
problem Predicting continuous-time stochastic processes with irregular and noisy observations.
method Extends PD-NJ-ODE to handle conditional independence and noisy observations.
result Theoretical guarantees and empirical examples for handling noisy observations and dependent observation times.
We consider stochastic partial differential equations appearing as Markovian lifts of matrix valued (affine) Volterra type processes from the point of view of the generalized Feller property (see e.g., \cite{doetei:10}). We introduce in particular Volterra Wishart processes with fractional kernels and values in the con…
In the first quarter of 2006 Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) introduced, as one of the listed products, options on its implied volatility index (VIX). This created the challenge of developing a pricing framework that can simultaneously handle European options, forward-starts, options on the realized variance and …
Sparse alpha-norm regularization has many data-rich applications in Marketing and Economics. Alpha-norm, in contrast to lasso and ridge regularization, jumps to a sparse solution. This feature is attractive for ultra high-dimensional problems that occur in demand estimation and forecasting. The alpha-norm objective is …
Generative model for TPPs using signatures and distributional discrepancies.
problem Limitations of signature methods for TPPs and lack of global sequence-level loss in neural models.
method Introduce interarrival embedding to lift jump paths to continuous paths of bounded variation, enabling signature methods for discrete event sequences. Develop sigTPP, a signature-based generative model trained on path-level loss.
result sigTPP achieves the best average rank across multiple metrics and outperforms or is within a standard error of the strongest baseline in 64% of dataset-metric pairs.
News might trigger jump arrivals in financial time series. The "bad" and "good" news seems to have distinct impact. In the research, a double exponential jump distribution is applied to model downward and upward jumps. Bayesian double exponential jump-diffusion model is proposed. Theorems stated in the paper enable est…
We quantify how co-jumps impact correlations in currency markets. To disentangle the continuous part of quadratic covariation from co-jumps, and study the influence of co-jumps on correlations, we propose a new wavelet-based estimator. The proposed estimation framework is able to localize the co-jumps very precisely th…
Neural jump model improves option pricing accuracy.
problem Jump risk in option pricing.
method Neural jump stochastic differential equation model with Gumbel-Softmax gradient learning.
result Neural jump components significantly improve option pricing accuracy.
Existence and rigidity results for lifts in Carnot groups.
problem Existence and properties of lifts for maps between Carnot groups.
method Use central extensions to define lifts and prove existence and rigidity results for Lipschitz, Sobolev, and quasiconformal maps.
result Quasiconformal maps admit contact lifts that are bi-Lipschitz.
We study the role of co-jumps in the interest rate futures markets. To disentangle continuous part of quadratic covariation from co-jumps, we localize the co-jumps precisely through wavelet coefficients and identify statistically significant ones. Using high frequency data about U.S. and European yield curves we quanti…
Study lift metrics and connections on tangent bundles of Riemannian manifolds.
problem Investigate geometric properties of tangent bundles and their lifts.
method Analyze lift metrics and connections on TM of (M,g), and study statistical and Codazzi couples. result Prove a result on 1-Stein and Osserman structures on TM. We investigate the extension of the multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation method to jump-diffusion SDEs. We consider models with finite rate activity, using a jump-adapted discretisation in which the jump times are computed and added to the standard uniform dis- cretisation times. The key component in multilevel analy…
Study proposes pricing mechanism for cryptocurrency options.
problem High speculation, volatility, and discontinuity in cryptocurrency markets.
method Proposes a pricing mechanism based on SVCJ model with co-jumps.
result Shows significant contemporaneous anti-correlation between jumps in price and volatility.
Develops a new model for pricing without arbitrage opportunities.
problem Arbitrage opportunities in standard jump-diffusion models.
method Introduces a multi-type jump-diffusion model with diffusion-dependent jumps.
result Derives no-arbitrage condition linking drift to model parameters.
Extends nonlinear filtering to predictable jump times.
problem Filtering with jumps in both signal and observation, especially when jump times are known.
method Derive Kushner-Stratonovich and Zakai equations for predictable discontinuities.
result Extends classical nonlinear filtering results to a setting with predictable discontinuities.
The paper studies the continuous-time dynamics of VIX with stochastic volatility and jumps in VIX and volatility. Built on the general parametric affine model with stochastic volatility and jump in logarithm of VIX, we derive a linear relation between the stochastic volatility factor and VVIX index. We detect the exist…
A method to identify new classes of price jumps in financial markets.
problem Separating endogenous and exogenous causes of price jumps.
method Wavelet-based representation of jump time-series.
result Identification of new classes of jumps and investigation of co-jumps.
Efficiently reconstructs jump-diffusion processes from data using neural networks.
problem Reconstructing jump-diffusion processes from data.
method Temporally decoupled squared Wasserstein distance method using parameterized neural networks.
result Enhanced reconstruction of jump-diffusion processes from data.
The paper models financial data with multivariate jump processes.
problem Capturing the dynamics of financial data with jumps.
method Defined multivariate point processes driven by stochastic jumps, providing stability conditions.
result Nonlinear models fit financial data best, showing jumps cluster during crises.
Method detects jumps in high-frequency order prices using local minima.
problem Detecting jumps in high-frequency order prices with noisy data.
method Developed methods to estimate, locate and test for jumps using local minima of best ask quotes.
result Consistently estimated jump sizes and times, established asymptotic properties of tests, and demonstrated faster convergence rates.
Model predicts jump risk premia influencing cryptocurrency futures and option performance.
problem Capturing asymmetric and time-varying skewness in cryptocurrency returns.
method Bivariate Hawkes process with positive and negative jump premia.
result Inferred jump risk premia predict futures cost of carry and option performance.
A machine learning method for short-maturity options with jumps and stochastic volatility.
problem Short-maturity options with jumps and stochastic volatility.
method Differential machine learning method combining supervision and PIDE-residual penalty.
result Improves jump-term approximation and reduces Greeks errors compared to baselines.
RL for jump-diffusions applies to financial portfolio selection and option hedging.
problem Optimizing control in systems with jump-diffusion dynamics.
method Entropy-regularized exploratory control with stochastic policies, using existing diffusion algorithms with modifications.
result RL algorithms and parameterizations are invariant to jumps in jump-diffusion systems.
In order to understand the origin of stock price jumps, we cross-correlate high-frequency time series of stock returns with different news feeds. We find that neither idiosyncratic news nor market wide news can explain the frequency and amplitude of price jumps. We find that the volatility patterns around jumps and aro…
In this paper, we define a complete lift for semisprays. If S is a semispray on a manifold M, its complete lift is a new semispray Sc on TM. The motivation for this lift is two-fold: First, geodesics for Sc correspond to the Jacobi fields for S, and second, this complete lift generalizes and unifies previ…
Unified approach to constructing integrable systems using Stäckel lifts.
problem Constructing new integrable Hamiltonian systems.
method Generalized Stäckel geometry and Haantjes structure.
result Hamiltonian systems with momentum-dependent Stäckel matrices exhibit symplectic-Haantjes structures.
In this note we investigate the consistency under inversion of jump diffusion processes in the Foreign Exchange (FX) market. In other terms, if the EUR/USD FX rate follows a given type of dynamics, under which conditions will USD/EUR follow the same type of dynamics? In order to give a numerical description of this pro…
Geometric structures are lifted to higher tangent bundles preserving statistical properties.
problem Lifting statistical structures to higher tangent bundles while maintaining their properties.
method Natural lifts of geometric objects and potentials to higher tangent bundles, preserving statistical manifold structures.
result Lifted statistical structures on higher tangent bundles maintain pseudo-Riemannian metrics and are again statistical manifolds.
The paper introduces walks with jumps for modeling neuron activity in hyperbolic space.
problem Encoding neuron activity sequences in hyperbolic space.
method Introducing walks with jumps in hyperbolic geometry to model neuron activity.
result Endpoints of walks with jumps do not fully encode the sequence of jump times.
In quantitative finance, we often model asset prices as semimartingales, with drift, diffusion and jump components. The jump activity index measures the strength of the jumps at high frequencies, and is of interest both in model selection and fitting, and in volatility estimation. In this paper, we give a novel estimat…
Develops efficient methods for approximating densities of financial models with jumps.
problem Approximating densities of affine jump diffusions with state-independent jump intensities.
method Recursive approach for deriving closed-form solutions to moments, constructing density approximations via moment matching.
result Superior computational efficiency and precision in option pricing and simulation compared to existing techniques.
Study on short-term behavior of ATM-IV for jump-diffusion model.
problem Analyzing the short-time behavior of ATM-IV for a specific stochastic volatility model.
method Used Malliavin Calculus techniques to derive expressions for ATM-IV level and skew.
result Short-time behavior of ATM-IV level is consistent for all pure-jump Lévy processes.
The article classifies liftings of connections on differential manifolds for geodesic modeling.
problem Classifying liftings of connections on differential manifolds.
method Liftings of connections on frame bundles, induced and adjust liftings.
result Developed a method for geodesic modeling of differential equations.
Study short maturity Asian options in jump-diffusion models with local volatility.
problem Analyzing Asian options pricing in models with jumps and local volatility.
method Asymptotic analysis for short maturity, considering fixed and floating strike options.
result Explicit results for Asian option prices in several models, including Merton, double-exponential, and Variance Gamma models.
Estimation of the covariance matrix of asset returns from high frequency data is complicated by asynchronous returns, market mi- crostructure noise and jumps. One technique for addressing both asynchronous returns and market microstructure is the Kalman-EM (KEM) algorithm. However the KEM approach assumes log-normal pr…
Maps can be embedded in higher dimensions if they lift to embeddings in product spaces.
problem Embedding maps in higher dimensions without self-intersections.
method Lifting maps to embeddings in product spaces.
result Maps can be embedded in higher dimensions if they lift to embeddings in product spaces.
In the present paper, we study complete and vertical lifts of tensor fields from a smooth manifold M to its Weil bundle TAM defined by a Frobenius Weil algebra A. For a Poisson manifold (M,w), we show that the complete lift wC and the vertical lift wV of the Poisson tensor w are Poisson tensors on $T^…
New insights into Khovanov polynomials using tangle calculus.
problem Understanding the structure and evolution of Khovanov polynomials for long braids.
method Application of tangle calculus and evolution theory to Khovanov polynomials, focusing on jumps and thickness.
result Jumps in evolution are less frequent than expected, with most contributions being non-jumping.
New framework analyzes pre-stock jump trading behaviors using multivariate time series analysis.
problem Understanding micro-trading behaviors before stock price jumps.
method Multivariate time series analysis considering temporal information.
result Identifies highly informative attributes for predicting price jumps.
In this article, we consider a Markov process X, starting from x and solving a stochastic differential equation, which is driven by a Brownian motion and an independent pure jump component exhibiting state-dependent jump intensity and infinite jump activity. A second order expansion is derived for the tail probability …
Enhances RL for jump processes using MSBVE algorithm.
problem Challenges in continuous-time RL with jumps and noise.
method Introduces MSBVE algorithm to minimize quadratic variation error.
result MSBVE algorithm outperforms MSTDE in jump processes.
We analyse the behaviour of the implied volatility smile for options close to expiry in the exponential Lévy class of asset price models with jumps. We introduce a new renormalisation of the strike variable with the property that the implied volatility converges to a non-constant limiting shape, which is a function of …
Projects Markovian processes from Itô semimartingales with jumps.
problem Modeling Itô semimartingales with jumps using Markovian projections.
method Construct Markovian projections for Itô semimartingales with jumps using non-local FPKEs.
result Markovian projections match the marginal laws of the original process.
A short-term pattern in LIBOR dynamics was discovered. Namely, 2-month LIBOR experiences a jump after Xmas. The sign and size of the jump depend on the data trend on 21 days before Xmas.
This paper solves the inversion problem for jump processes using Markovian projections.
problem Calibrating jump-diffusion models with both local and stochastic features.
method Inverting Markovian projections for pure jump processes.
result Constructs calibrated local stochastic intensity (LSI) models for credit risk applications.