JANET improves time series prediction with adaptive uncertainty regions.
problem Time series data's lack of exchangeability and multi-step prediction challenges.
method Proposes JANET, a framework for joint adaptive prediction regions with controlled error rates.
result Demonstrates superior performance in multi-step prediction tasks across diverse datasets.
Project aims to improve time series prediction intervals.
problem Difficulty in computing joint prediction regions for time series data.
method Wolf and Wunderli's method applied with bootstrapping and novel standard error estimation.
result Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of the method.
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
MA-COPP predicts multi-agent system outcomes using data from a different policy, with probabilistic guarantees.
problem Predicting outcomes in multi-agent systems using data from a different policy.
method Conformal prediction framework applied to multi-agent systems, avoiding exhaustive search.
result Achieves probabilistic guarantees for multi-agent system predictions.
A new model predicts spatio-temporal data using adaptive decision trees and point processes.
problem Predicting spatio-temporal data with real-life applications.
method Hawkes process, adaptive decision tree, joint optimization algorithm.
result Significant improvement in predictions compared to standard methods.
The study improves prediction regions for hierarchical data using a projection step.
problem Improving prediction regions for hierarchical multivariate data.
method Integrating a projection step in the split conformal prediction (SCP) procedure to reduce prediction regions.
result The resulting prediction regions are globally smaller under both joint and component-wise coverage objectives.
The paper forecasts joint electricity demand across 14 British regions using additive models.
problem Forecasting regional electricity demand with cross-regional dependencies.
method Modified Cholesky parametrisation for multivariate Gaussian model, gradient boosting for model selection.
result The proposed model outperforms non-Gaussian copula-based models in forecasting.
Credit risk analysis improved with a joint model for spatial and temporal effects.
problem Predicting borrower's time-to-event with spatial and temporal covariates.
method Spatio-Temporal Joint Model (STJM) using Bayesian hierarchical approach and INLA.
result Spatial effects improve joint model performance, but spatio-temporal interactions have less impact.
JAPAN uses flow-based models to create adaptive prediction areas with better coverage guarantees.
problem Inadequate prediction areas from existing conformal prediction methods, especially for multimodal distributions.
method JAPAN employs density-based conformity scores using flow-based models to construct context-adaptive prediction areas.
result JAPAN produces more accurate and context-adaptive prediction areas compared to existing methods.
Neural optimal transport improves multivariate conformal prediction.
problem Multivariate quantile regression challenges and existing methods ignore joint distribution geometry.
method Combines neural optimal transport with amortized optimization for efficient training and faster inference.
result Constructs tighter and more informative predictive regions for multivariate conformal prediction.
We study historical calibration of one- and two-factor models that are known to describe relatively well the dynamics of energy underlyings such as spot and index natural gas or oil prices at different physical locations or regional power prices. We take into account uneven frequency of data due to weekends, holidays, …
We suggest a general approach to quantification of different forms of aleatoric uncertainty in regression tasks performed by artificial neural networks. It is based on the simultaneous training of two neural networks with a joint loss function and a specific hyperparameter λ>0 that allows for automatically detecting …
The Neural Testbed evaluates joint predictions of neural agents, revealing their limitations.
problem Evaluating the quality of joint predictions generated by neural agents.
method Developed an open-source benchmark (The Neural Testbed) to assess agents' marginal and joint predictions.
result Popular Bayesian deep learning agents perform poorly on joint predictions, even with accurate marginal predictions.
Contrast uses normalizing flows to create precise prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs.
problem Generating reliable prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs in supervised and unsupervised learning.
method Contrast uses normalizing flows to define nonconformity scores based on distances in latent space, creating sharp prediction regions.
result Contrast maintains guaranteed coverage probability and outperforms existing methods in generating accurate prediction regions.
The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.
problem The need for accurate joint predictions in decision-making problems.
method The paper analyzes combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits, introducing an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and new regret bounds.
result Accurate joint predictions are essential for good performance in decision-making problems.
In this paper, the `Approximate Message Passing' (AMP) algorithm, initially developed for compressed sensing of signals under i.i.d. Gaussian measurement matrices, has been extended to a multi-terminal setting (MAMP algorithm). It has been shown that similar to its single terminal counterpart, the behavior of MAMP algo…
Conformal Prediction Regions match Imprecise Highest Density Regions under consonance.
problem Matching conformal prediction regions with highest density regions.
method Using consonance and the Imprecise Probability theory of clouds.
result Imprecise Highest Density Regions are equivalent to Conformal Prediction Regions under consonance.
SVM predicts regional rainfall with varying accuracy, best in central US.
problem Regional rainfall prediction for social and economic impact planning.
method Support Vector Machine (SVM) applied to sequences of daily rainfall maps.
result SVM predictions for central region outperform untrained classifier.
This paper focusses on "safe" screening techniques for the LASSO problem. Motivated by the need for low-complexity algorithms, we propose a new approach, dubbed "joint" screening test, allowing to screen a set of atoms by carrying out one single test. The approach is particularized to two different sets of atoms, respe…
A new method for joint noise removal and trend estimation from sparse signals.
problem Jointly removing noise and estimating trends from sparse signals.
method PENDANTSS combines SOOT/SPOQ penalties with BEADS algorithm in a Trust-Region block alternating variable metric forward-backward approach.
result Outperforms comparable methods in deconvolving analytical chemistry signals.
Develops an efficient approximation for full conformal prediction regions.
problem Computing exact full conformal prediction regions is computationally infeasible.
method Generates an approximate confidence region that can be efficiently computed.
result Introduces a new notion of thickness to quantify approximation tightness.
Develops a category-theoretic approach to interpret conformal prediction.
problem Interpreting conformal prediction as a quantitative uncertainty tool.
method Category-theoretic approach to represent and decompose conformal prediction.
result Decomposes conformal prediction into two steps: predictive distributions and prediction regions.
In this paper an approach based on expectation maximization (EM) clustering to find the climate regions and a support vector machine to build a predictive model for each of these regions is proposed. To minimize the biases in the estimations a ten cross fold validation is adopted both for obtaining clusters and buildin…
Introduces joint Shapley values to measure feature importance in models.
problem Measuring the importance of feature sets in machine learning models.
method Extends Shapley's axioms to measure a set of features' average contribution to a model's prediction.
result Joint Shapley values provide unique insights and are more consistent with local intuitions.
VSPS creates flexible prediction regions for multi-target regression with guaranteed coverage.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multi-target regression with complex distributions.
method Conditional normalizing flows with conformal calibration to identify dense regions.
result VSPS produces smaller, more informative prediction regions with robust coverage guarantees.
Multivariate regular variation plays a role assessing tail risk in diverse applications such as finance, telecommunications, insurance and environmental science. The classical theory, being based on an asymptotic model, sometimes leads to inaccurate and useless estimates of probabilities of joint tail regions. This pro…
Proposes a recursive MPC scheme with probabilistic safety guarantees for uncertain dynamic systems.
problem Probabilistic safety guarantees for MPC in dynamic environments with unknown stochastic agents.
method Uses conformal prediction to derive high-confidence prediction regions and gradually relax safety constraints online.
result Ensures recursive feasibility of MPC schemes by relaxing safety constraints over time.
Introduces CCR for constructing confidence regions from conformal predictions.
problem Challenges in constructing confidence regions for model parameters.
method Combines conformal prediction intervals for model outputs to establish confidence regions for parameters under minimal assumptions.
result Valid coverage guarantees for finite sample regime, applicable to various model types.
New methods improve Bayesian inference and decision-making in online learning.
problem Current Bayesian deep learning does not fully utilize joint predictives for sequential decision-making.
method Proposes new evaluation settings for active learning and active sampling, focusing on marginal and joint cross-entropies.
result Initial experiments suggest challenges in applying current BDL inference techniques in high-dimensional spaces.
Article addresses practical challenges in conformal prediction.
problem Challenges in determining, computing, and controlling conformal prediction regions.
method Proposes a quadratic-polynomial non-conformity measure.
result Allows circumventing three challenges in full conformal prediction framework.
Art historians and archaeologists have long grappled with the regional classification of ancient Near Eastern ivory carvings. Based on the visual similarity of sculptures, individuals within these fields have proposed object assemblages linked to hypothesized regional production centers. Using quantitative rather than …
Efficiently combines autoregressive and set-based models for joint distributions.
problem Joint distributions over multiple predictions from set-based models.
method Causal autoregressive buffer that caches context and captures dependencies.
result Up to 20x faster joint sampling and density evaluation, up to 7x lower memory usage.
JoLT uses LLMs to make probabilistic predictions on tabular data.
problem Making probabilistic predictions on tabular data efficiently and without preprocessing.
method JoLT leverages LLMs' in-context learning to define joint distributions over tabular data.
result JoLT outperforms other methods on tabular classification and regression tasks.
New method uses conformalization to create classification regions from ambiguous labels.
problem Creating provable guarantees in classification with uncertain labels.
method Conformal methods applied to credal regions for classification problems.
result New method provides smaller and more disentangled prediction sets.
New methods improve prediction regions for high-dimensional data.
problem Creating effective prediction regions for high-dimensional data.
method CD-split and HPD-split methods that combine split method and data-driven partition.
result CD-split and HPD-split converge to oracle highest predictive density set and satisfy local and asymptotic conditional validity.
Low-rank matrix regression refers to the instances of recovering a low-rank matrix based on specially designed measurements and the corresponding noisy outcomes. In the last decade, numerous statistical methodologies have been developed for efficiently recovering the unknown low-rank matrices. However, in some applicat…
This work is an endeavor to develop a deep learning methodology for automated anatomical labeling of a given region of interest (ROI) in brain computed tomography (CT) scans. We combine both local and global context to obtain a representation of the ROI. We then use Relation Networks (RNs) to predict the corresponding …
Joint diffusion models improve data representation for both generation and prediction.
problem Inconsistent performance between generation and classification tasks in joint models.
method Extended vanilla diffusion model with a classifier for joint end-to-end training.
result Joint diffusion model outperforms state-of-the-art hybrid methods in classification and generation.
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our model discovers a latent set of dynamical behaviors shared among the sequences, and segments each time series into regions defined by a subset of these behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the…
Proposes CPO framework for robust decision-making with explainable uncertainty regions.
problem Overly conservative uncertainty regions in data-driven optimization lead to suboptimal decisions.
method Conformal-Predict-Then-Optimize (CPO) framework using conditional generative models and visual summaries.
result Demonstrates improved robustness and explainability in decision-making.
Waldo method constructs valid confidence regions for simulator-based inference.
problem Constructing valid confidence regions for simulator-based inference with high-dimensional data.
method Reframes Wald test statistic and uses regression-based machinery for Neyman inversion.
result Waldo method produces conditionally valid and precise confidence regions.
Develops a new framework for estimating joint probability distributions.
problem Estimating joint probability distributions from large sample sizes.
method Tensor product reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) with normalized and positive model.
result Fast computation and applicability to prediction and classification problems.
A new method for time-series data provides guaranteed coverage and adapts to non-exchangeable data.
problem Guaranteed coverage for time-series data prediction intervals.
method Sequential Conformalized Density Regions (SCDR) using quantile random forest.
result SCDR achieves guaranteed asymptotic coverage and outperforms existing methods in simulations.
General predictive models do not provide a measure of confidence in predictions without Bayesian assumptions. A way to circumvent potential restrictions is to use conformal methods for constructing non-parametric confidence regions, that offer guarantees regarding validity. In this paper we provide a detailed descripti…
Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty…
There is a growing interest in joint multi-subject fMRI analysis. The challenge of such analysis comes from inherent anatomical and functional variability across subjects. One approach to resolving this is a shared response factor model. This assumes a shared and time synchronized stimulus across subjects. Such a model…
fMRI semantic category understanding using linguistic encoding models attempt to learn a forward mapping that relates stimuli to the corresponding brain activation. Classical encoding models use linear multi-variate methods to predict the brain activation (all voxels) given the stimulus. However, these methods essentia…
Inter-subject registration of cortical areas is necessary in functional imaging (fMRI) studies for making inferences about equivalent brain function across a population. However, many high-level visual brain areas are defined as peaks of functional contrasts whose cortical position is highly variable. As such, most ali…