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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for investment timing

The paper clarifies long-horizon investment and DCA, showing no risk reduction but different exposure profiles.

problem Misleading claims about reducing risk with longer investment horizons and DCA.
method Unified probabilistic framework, defining risk and uncertainty, and introducing effective investment exposure.
result Different investment timing strategies can lead to distinct exposure profiles over time, affecting risk and uncertainty.

In the continuous time mean-variance model, we want to minimize the variance (risk) of the investment portfolio with a given mean at terminal time. However, the investor can stop the investment plan at any time before the terminal time. To solve this kind of problem, we consider to minimize the variances of the investm…

2019-12-04abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper considers an investment timing problem appearing in real options theory. Present values from an investment project are modeled by general diffusion process. We prove necessary and sufficient conditions under which an optimal investment time is induced by threshold strategy. We study also the conditions of opt…

2015-11-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Intangible investment becomes a strong predictor of stock returns over time.

problem Understanding the role of intangible investment in stock returns over different periods.
method Comparing intangible investment's predictive power over two distinct periods (1963-1992 and 1993-2022) using orthogonal factors.
result Intangible investment's predictive power for stock returns has significantly increased over time, becoming a main predictor for recent periods.

Paper applies theorem to find optimal investment boundary in stochastic capacity expansion.

problem Finding optimal investment boundary in a stochastic, time-inhomogeneous capacity expansion problem.
method Applies Bank and El Karoui Representation Theorem to solve first order conditions involving a non-integral term.
result Existence of base capacity ly(t)l^{\star}_y(t), showing optimal investment process becomes active at this level.

The paper analyzes Indian stock sectors using multifractal analysis for long and short-term investment.

problem Investment risk and stability in Indian stock sectors.
method Sector-wise multifractal analysis of Bombay Stock Exchange, India, over short and long time scales.
result Long-term investment in stable sectors is more profitable, while sectors with large fluctuations may lead to downturns.

Optimizes investment strategies for retirees with longevity risk.

problem Maximizing retirement savings under longevity risk for a group of investors.
method Analytic and numerical solutions for investment strategies in both discrete and continuous time models.
result Analytic formulae for optimal investment strategies in both discrete and continuous time models.

Enhances robo-advisors with client investment preference inference.

problem Accurately inferring clients' investment preferences from past activities.
method Stochastic control framework with continuous-time model and discounting scheme.
result Proves sufficient conditions for client investment preference identifiability.

In this paper we study the asymptotic decay of finite time ruin probabilities for an insurance company that faces heavy-tailed claims, uses predictable investment strategies and makes investments in risky assets whose prices evolve according to quite general semimartingales. We show that the ruin problem corresponds to…

2008-09-25abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper revisits optimal investment strategies for defined contribution pension schemes using forward preferences.

problem Optimal investment strategies derived from backward models are not time-consistent and sub-optimal in real scenarios.
method Introduces forward preferences and solves optimal investment strategies for defined contribution pension schemes.
result Constructs optimal investment strategies for defined contribution pension schemes using forward preferences.

We find the optimal investment strategy to minimize the expected time that an individual's wealth stays below zero, the so-called {\it occupation time}. The individual consumes at a constant rate and invests in a Black-Scholes financial market consisting of one riskless and one risky asset, with the risky asset's price…

2008-05-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Investment decisions shift earlier as patience decreases, with implications for pasting conditions.

problem Investment timing under decreasing impatience.
method Game-theoretic framework with continuous-time capacity expansion problem.
result Decreasing impatience leads to earlier investment decisions, but can violate smooth pasting conditions.

Study optimal consumption and investment strategies with constraints in a market with random coefficients.

problem Optimal consumption and investment strategies with constraints in a regime switching market with random coefficients.
method Explicit optimal strategies provided via solutions to new BSDE systems.
result Solving new BSDEs to find optimal values and strategies.

Paper introduces dynamic strategies for multi-period investment models.

problem Optimizing investment strategies over multiple periods with risk and return considerations.
method Developed a Bellman principle for discrete time multi-period mean-variance models, leading to dynamic optimal strategies and efficient frontiers.
result Dynamic optimal strategies can achieve higher returns with lower risk compared to the 1/n strategy.

Maximizes probability of completing investment schedules with optimal portfolio weights.

problem Optimizing probability of completing investment schedules with optimal portfolio weights.
method Computing maximum probability and optimal portfolio weight functions for various rebalancing schedules.
result Noticeable improvements in probability to complete schedules with optimal portfolio weights.

Optimal investment and risk control strategies for insurers are derived using a time-consistent approach.

problem Optimal investment and risk control for insurers under mean-variance criterion.
method Introducing a deterministic forward auxiliary process to formulate a time-consistent problem.
result Optimal strategy and value function obtained in closed-form for the new problem.

Upper bound on withdrawal success for geometric Levy alpha-stable wealth process.

problem Estimating the probability of completing a withdrawal schedule.
method Constructing a log-Levy alpha-stable lower bound and applying it to a schedule of withdrawals.
result Necessary conditions on initial investment and parameters for a 95% confidence of completing kk withdrawals.

Investor optimizes investment timing with future knowledge, overcoming transaction costs.

problem Optimal investment timing with future peeking, constrained by transaction costs.
method Solves control problem with infinite-dimensional memory using Gaussian Volterra integral equations.
result Explicit solution to optimal investment problem in Bachelier setting.

We introduce a new approach to incorporate uncertainty into the decision to invest in a commodity reserve. The investment is an irreversible one-off capital expenditure, after which the investor receives a stream of cashflow from extracting the commodity and selling it on the spot market. The investor is exposed to pri…

2018-03-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper studies optimal investing for retirees with risk constraints.

problem Retirees' longevity and living standard risks in a fluctuating market.
method Formulated as a portfolio choice problem under time-varying risk capacity constraint. Derived optimal investment strategy using differential equations. Demonstrated endogenous spending measure and active investment strategy.
result Time-varying risk capacity constraint impacts asset allocation in retirement.

Investment decisions can benefit from incorporating an accumulated knowledge of the past to drive future decision making. We introduce Continual Learning Augmentation (CLA) which is based on an explicit memory structure and a feed forward neural network (FFNN) base model and used to drive long term financial investment…

2018-12-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Investment managers face harder choices in green stocks due to reduced performance variability.

problem Difficulty in deploying talent in green stocks due to reduced performance variability.
method Analysis of S&P 500 firms' greenhouse gas emission levels and peer performance ratios.
result Performance variability has decreased in green stocks, making it harder for managers to choose.

We review a resent {\em time-dependent} performance measure for economical time series -- the (optimal) investment horizon approach. For stock indices, the approach shows a pronounced gain-loss asymmetry that is {\em not} observed for the individual stocks that comprise the index. This difference may hint towards an sy…

2005-04-21abs ↗pdf ↗

New model considers wealth and time affecting risk aversion in portfolio selection.

problem Optimal investment strategy and consumption process depend on wealth and future income balance.
method Proposed a new mean-variance-utility framework with time and state-dependent risk aversion, solved using game theory.
result Equilibrium investment and consumption policies derived, aligning with investor behavior.

Investment diversification affects financial stability, depending on network connectivity.

problem Analyzing stability of financial networks with diversified portfolios.
method Random matrix dynamical model with portfolio rebalancing, considering heterogeneity and diversification effects.
result Stability/instability transition depends on the largest eigenvalue of the random matrix.

Given a new candidate asset represented as a time series of returns, how should a quantitative investment manager be thinking about assessing its usefulness? This is a key qualitative question inherent to the investment process which we aim to make precise. We argue that the usefulness of an asset can only be determine…

2018-06-21abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper solves optimal consumption-investment choices with wealth-driven risk aversion using neural networks.

problem Optimal consumption-investment choices under wealth-driven risk aversion.
method Neural network LSTM trained on jump-diffusion model data to optimize investment rate and consumption.
result Neural network approach shows promising results in solving the investment problem.

Investment herding can reduce household consumption, a phenomenon called crowding-out effect.

problem Investment herding's impact on household consumption.
method Optimal control theory to model and solve for household investment and consumption decisions.
result Existence of crowding-out effect due to investment herding.

The paper addresses optimal control in modern tontines with bequest preferences, showing a linear investment strategy.

problem Optimal controls and decreasing allocation in modern tontines with bequest preferences.
method Dual approach to solve optimal control problems with power utilities, modeling bequest preferences.
result Investment strategy almost linearly adjusts from 0% to 100% over time.

This paper considers the problem of consumption and investment in a financial market within a continuous time stochastic economy. The investor exhibits a change in the discount rate. The investment opportunities are a stock and a riskless account. The market coefficients and discount factor switch according to a finite…

2013-03-06abs ↗pdf ↗