ValueBlindBench tests LLM-generated investment rationales for validity before returns are known.
problem Delayed-ground-truth evaluation of LLM-generated investment rationales.
method Agreement-gated stress testing protocol to validate LLM-judged rationales.
result ValueBlindBench prevents overclaims and identifies flawed financial constructs.
Paper develops an AI-driven framework for systematic investing.
problem Manual prompts limit model adaptability and data snooping biases.
method Closed-loop system with self-evolving AI, out-of-sample validation, and economic rationale.
result Long-short portfolios on factor signals outperform with Sharpe ratio 3.11 and return 59.53%.
Ploutos predicts stock movements with financial LLM, improving interpretability.
problem Combining textual and numerical data for stock prediction and lack of interpretability.
method Proposes Ploutos framework combining PloutosGen and PloutosGPT for interpretable predictions.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods in prediction accuracy and interpretability.
Investors in Target Date Funds are automatically switched from high risk to low risk assets as their retirements approach. Such funds have become very popular, but our analysis brings into question the rationale for them. Based on both a model with parameters fitted to historical returns and on bootstrap resampling, we…
TopInG improves graph interpretability using persistent homology.
problem Lack of interpretability in Graph Neural Networks (GNNs).
method TopInG uses persistent homology to identify persistent rationale subgraphs in graphs.
result TopInG improves predictive accuracy and interpretability compared to state-of-the-art methods.
New rationalization method avoids spurious correlations.
problem Spurious correlations in rationalization criteria.
method Invariant rationalization using game theory constraints.
result Rationales generalize better and align with human judgments.
Enhances graph neural networks by creating virtual data examples.
problem Lack of examples to identify optimal graph rationales in graph applications.
method Introduces environment replacement to create virtual data examples and proposes a framework for rationale-environment separation and representation learning.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness and efficiency of the augmentation-based graph rationalization framework on molecular and polymer datasets.
Generative model learns to create molecules with multiple properties using interpretable substructures.
problem Creating molecules with multiple chemical properties is challenging.
method Compose molecules from substructures identified as responsible for each property, using graph generative models.
result Significant improvements in accuracy, diversity, and novelty of generated compounds over state-of-the-art baselines.
New methods improve uncertainty in machine learning predictions for asset returns.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning predictions for asset returns.
method Developed new methods to construct forecast confidence intervals for expected returns from neural networks.
result Neural network forecasts of expected returns have the same asymptotic distribution as classic nonparametric methods, enabling standard error calculation.
Alpha-R1 uses LLMs to reason about economic factors and news for better alpha screening.
problem Challenges in data-driven investment strategies due to signal decay and regime shifts.
method Reinforcement learning trained on 8B parameters to evaluate alpha relevance under changing market conditions.
result Empirically outperforms benchmark strategies and shows improved robustness to alpha decay.
A new tontine design aims to protect longevity risk with non-indexed investments.
problem Pooling longevity risk with traditional methods.
method Non-indexed investments with negatively correlated returns to mortality.
result Mathematical proof of recovery schedule using a Riccati equation.
Recent explainability related studies have shown that state-of-the-art DNNs do not always adopt correct evidences to make decisions. It not only hampers their generalization but also makes them less likely to be trusted by end-users. In pursuit of developing more credible DNNs, in this paper we propose CREX, which enco…
Benchmark evaluates LLM trading agents by masking identifiers to prevent memory leaks.
problem Evaluate LLM trading agents without relying on market memory or noise.
method Data-side masking protocol, Barra-style performance attribution framework.
result LLM agents' returns are largely explained by market and style exposure, not stock selection.
AlphaLogics mines market logic to generate interpretable alpha factors.
problem Complex, opaque alpha factors from factor mining overlook market logic.
method Market Logic Mining, Factor Generation and Optimization, Market Logic Generation and Optimization.
result AlphaLogics improves predictive metrics and risk-adjusted returns over baselines.
A new approach to rationalization identifies true rationales by considering causal relationships.
problem Existing rationalization methods struggle with spuriousness, where snippets with similar contributions are hard to distinguish.
method The method leverages causal inference to identify non-spurious rationales, defining probabilities of causation based on a structural causal model.
result The proposed causal rationalization outperforms existing methods on real-world datasets.
New method for LLMs to learn reasoning by optimizing latent variables.
problem Teaching LLMs to generate logical justifications for answers.
method Formalized reasoning as latent variable model, derived FEM objective, designed sampling schemes.
result Prompt Posterior Sampling (PPS) outperforms other schemes in learning to reason.
Selection of input features such as relevant pieces of text has become a common technique of highlighting how complex neural predictors operate. The selection can be optimized post-hoc for trained models or incorporated directly into the method itself (self-explaining). However, an overall selection does not properly c…
Counterexamples show HSIC feature selection misses critical features.
problem Feature selection using HSIC misses important features.
method Feature selection via HSIC maximization.
result HSIC feature selection can miss critical features.
LLM trading agents show risk feedback can improve alignment without fine-tuning.
problem Aligning LLM trading agents with financial risk.
method TradeArena testbed, risk reports, execution simulation, memory replay.
result Risk feedback can improve alignment without fine-tuning, but not universally.
Unified framework for analyzing machine learning model attributions.
problem Lack of a general and theoretical framework for understanding attribution methods.
method Proposes a Taylor attribution framework to unify and analyze seven mainstream attribution methods.
result Established three principles for good attribution and empirically validated the Taylor reformulations.
Ricci flow on two dimensional surfaces is far simpler than in the higher dimensional cases. This presents an opportunity to obtain much more detailed and comprehensive results. We review the basic facts about this flow, including the original results by Hamilton and Chow concerning Ricci flow on compact surfaces. The r…
Extends local attributions to Bayesian Neural Networks for improved explanations.
problem Lack of explanations for Bayesian Neural Networks' predictions.
method Extend local attributions to a probabilistic explanation distribution of BNNs.
result Enriches standard explanations with uncertainty information and visualizes explanation stability.
In the present paper, the minimal investment risk for a portfolio optimization problem with imposed budget and investment concentration constraints is considered using replica analysis. Since the minimal investment risk is influenced by the investment concentration constraint (as well as the budget constraint), it is i…
The paper clarifies long-horizon investment and DCA, showing no risk reduction but different exposure profiles.
problem Misleading claims about reducing risk with longer investment horizons and DCA.
method Unified probabilistic framework, defining risk and uncertainty, and introducing effective investment exposure.
result Different investment timing strategies can lead to distinct exposure profiles over time, affecting risk and uncertainty.
New statistical measures assess group separability in low-dimensional geometrical spaces.
problem Lack of statistical measures to evaluate group separability in low-dimensional geometrical spaces.
method Proposed three statistical measures (PSI-ROC, PSI-PR, PSI-P) based on Projection Separability rationale.
result Statistical-based measures outperform traditional cluster validity indices in evaluating group separability.
Simplified explanation of DDPMs for machine learning.
problem Complexity in explaining DDPMs and missing rationale.
method Six simple steps to explain DDPMs.
result Clear rationale for each step of DDPM formulation.
We present sktime -- a new scikit-learn compatible Python library with a unified interface for machine learning with time series. Time series data gives rise to various distinct but closely related learning tasks, such as forecasting and time series classification, many of which can be solved by reducing them to relate…
ChatGPT scores corporate investment plans, predicting future spending and returns.
problem Measuring and predicting corporate investment plans.
method Created a firm-level ChatGPT investment score based on conference calls.
result The investment score predicts future capital expenditures and returns.
Investment herding can reduce household consumption, a phenomenon called crowding-out effect.
problem Investment herding's impact on household consumption.
method Optimal control theory to model and solve for household investment and consumption decisions.
result Existence of crowding-out effect due to investment herding.
Qlib aims to integrate AI into quantitative investment.
problem Challenges in applying AI to quantitative investment.
method Design and develop Qlib to accommodate AI-driven workflow.
result Qlib realizes the potential of AI technologies in quantitative investment.
AI enhances quantitative investment for better returns and risk control.
problem Achieving stable returns through AI in quantitative investment.
method Application of AI technology in quantitative investment strategies.
result AI improves investment performance and risk management.
The investment economy is a main characteristic of prosperous society. The investment portfolio management is a main financial problem, which has to be solved by the investment, commercial and central banks with the application of modern portfolio theory in the investment economy. We use the learning analytics together…
We study optimal investment problems under the framework of cumulative prospect theory (CPT). A CPT investor makes investment decisions in a single-period financial market with transaction costs. The objective is to seek the optimal investment strategy that maximizes the prospect value of the investor's final wealth. W…
This paper proposes an embedding-based neural network for more accurate investment return prediction.
problem Accurately predicting investment returns requires understanding industry knowledge and news, as well as leveraging relevant theories.
method The approach uses embedding to encode investment IDs into low-dimensional vectors, leveraging dual branches to separate different information, and employs the swish activation function.
result The proposed embedding-based dual branch model outperforms traditional machine learning models like Xgboost, Lightgbm, and Catboost on the Ubiquant Market Prediction dataset.
New approach to goal-based investing using hedging and reinforcement learning.
problem Maximizing probability of reaching investment goals with varying risk aversion.
method Lower partial moments, quantile hedging, efficient hedging, reinforcement learning.
result Optimal investment policies for goal-based investing are equivalent.
Investment decision triggered by a convex curve in a two-factor uncertainty model.
problem Optimal irreversible investment in a company with two products whose prices follow geometric Brownian motions.
method Two-dimensional optimal stopping problem, nonlinear integral equation, convex curve characterization.
result Optimal investment decision is characterized by a convex curve, unique solution to a nonlinear integral equation.
Geometric structure reveals optimal investment and hedging products.
problem Optimal design of investment and hedging products.
method Investigation of geometric structure in risks and returns using a simple formula.
result Duality between hedging and investment with geometric interpretation of rationality.
Intangible investment becomes a strong predictor of stock returns over time.
problem Understanding the role of intangible investment in stock returns over different periods.
method Comparing intangible investment's predictive power over two distinct periods (1963-1992 and 1993-2022) using orthogonal factors.
result Intangible investment's predictive power for stock returns has significantly increased over time, becoming a main predictor for recent periods.
Study shows institutional investments significantly impact cryptocurrency market evolution.
problem Limited understanding of institutional investments' role in cryptocurrency market evolution.
method Quantitative analysis of 1324 cryptocurrencies' investments from 2014-2022.
result Institutional investments correlate with cryptocurrency market capitalization.
WSB community outperforms investment banks in stock picks.
problem Can WSB's community provide better investment advice than banks?
method Data-driven comparison of WSB and bank recommendations on S&P 500 stocks.
result WSB recommendations outperform banks in some cases and detect top stocks better.
In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy that minimizes the expected investment risk, but this strategy does not always resu…
AI stocks hedge against AI singularity's economic impact.
problem AI singularity's displacement of consumption.
method Developed an asset pricing model with incomplete markets.
result AI stocks command a premium due to market incompleteness.
This paper gives a review and synthesis of methods of evaluating dimensionality reduction techniques. Particular attention is paid to rank-order neighborhood evaluation metrics. A framework is created for exploring dimensionality reduction quality through visualization. An associated toolkit is implemented in R. The to…
This paper solves optimal consumption-investment choices with wealth-driven risk aversion using neural networks.
problem Optimal consumption-investment choices under wealth-driven risk aversion.
method Neural network LSTM trained on jump-diffusion model data to optimize investment rate and consumption.
result Neural network approach shows promising results in solving the investment problem.
Solves pair trading problem using consumption-investment theory.
problem Pair trading consumption-investment problem
method Reduces HJB equation to a linear parabolic equation solvable explicitly
result Simple solution to pair trading problem
We study an optimal investment control problem for an insurance company. The surplus process follows the Cramer-Lundberg process with perturbation of a Brownian motion. The company can invest its surplus into a risk free asset and a Black-Scholes risky asset. The optimization objective is to minimize the probability of…
Even in the face of deteriorating and highly volatile demand, firms often invest in, rather than discard, aging technologies. In order to study this phenomenon, we model the firm's profit stream as a Brownian motion with negative drift. At each point in time, the firm can continue operations, or it can stop and exit th…
Proposes an end-to-end deep learning framework for active investing.
problem Constructing an active investment portfolio via deep learning.
method End-to-end deep learning framework covering factor selection, combination, stock selection, and portfolio construction.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of E2E deep learning framework in active investing.