A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Proposes a new method to rank risky investments based on Omega measure.
Optimizes reinsurance and investment strategies to minimize ruin probability.
This report was commissioned by the Commission of Inquiry Respecting the Muskrat Falls Project to provide the national and international context in which the Muskrat Falls Project took place. The Commission asked for the report to cover three specific topics of questions: (1) What is the national and international cont…
We introduce a general decision tree framework to value an option to invest/divest in a project, focusing on the model risk inherent in the assumptions made by standard real option valuation methods. We examine how real option values depend on the dynamics of project value and investment costs, the frequency of exercis…
The paper presents a practical method for evaluating investment projects using real options.
Even in the face of deteriorating and highly volatile demand, firms often invest in, rather than discard, aging technologies. In order to study this phenomenon, we model the firm's profit stream as a Brownian motion with negative drift. At each point in time, the firm can continue operations, or it can stop and exit th…
An investor is estimating net present value of a firm project and performs risk analysis. Usually it is created portfolio hierarchies and make comparison of variants of project based on these hierarchies. Then one finds that portfolio which corresponds to the particular needs of individual groups within the firm. We ha…
We develop an axiomatic theory of balance functions (future value functions) in the theory of interest that is derived from financial considerations and which applies to general regulated payment streams, including continuous payment streams. Balance functions exist and are unique up to an initial choice of deposit and…
The paper considers an investment timing problem appearing in real options theory. Present values from an investment project are modeled by general diffusion process. We prove necessary and sufficient conditions under which an optimal investment time is induced by threshold strategy. We study also the conditions of opt…
Introduces PIT-plot for prioritizing projects based on their impact.
The article first describes characteristics of major infrastructure projects. Second, it documents a much neglected topic in economics: that ex ante estimates of costs and benefits are often very different from actual ex post costs and benefits. For large infrastructure projects the consequence is cost overruns, benefi…
AI model automates financial investment research tasks.
Visualizes board connections for socially responsible investing insights.
Investment decision triggered by a convex curve in a two-factor uncertainty model.
In this work we are concerned with valuing optionalities associated to invest or to delay investment in a project when the available information provided to the manager comes from simulated data of cash flows under historical (or subjective) measure in a possibly incomplete market. Our approach is suitable also to inco…
I studied what role the US stock markets and money markets have possibly played in the Gross Private Domestic Investment (GPDI) of the United States from the year 1959 to the year 2001, Gross Private Domestic Investment refers to the total amount of investment spending by businesses and firms located within the borders…
The Economist recently reported that infrastructure spending is the largest it is ever been as a share of world GDP. With $22 trillion in projected investments over the next ten years in emerging economies alone, the magazine calls it the "biggest investment boom in history." The efficiency of infrastructure planning a…
This research develops a new framework to measure AI investment returns considering both gains and risks.
Investment tool predicts higher returns for Madrid real estate units.
Examines climate financing for renewable energy projects using structured funds.
We derive the optimal investment decision in a project where both demand and investment costs are stochastic processes, eventually subject to shocks. We extend the approach used in Dixit and Pindyck (1994), chapter 6.5, to deal with two sources of uncertainty, but assuming that the underlying processes are no longer ge…
Study analyzes FIT schemes under market and regulatory uncertainty.
Lattice investment projects support process model with corruption is formulated and analyzed. The model is based on the Ising lattice model of ferromagnetic but takes deal with the social phenomenon. Set of corruption agents is considered. It is supposed that agents are placed in sites of the lattice. Agents take decis…
The prevalent view in the economics literature is that a high level of infrastructure investment is a precursor to economic growth. China is especially held up as a model to emulate. Based on the largest dataset of its kind, this paper punctures the twin myths that, first, infrastructure creates economic value, and, se…
The paper analyzes how contagion affects the survival probability of investment groups in microfinance.
We consider a simple investment project with the following parameters: I>0: Initial investment which is amortizable in n years; n: Number of years the investment allows production with constant output per year; A>0: Annual amortization (A=I/n); Q>0: Quantity of products sold per year; Cv>0: Variable cost per unit; p>0:…
Paper optimizes stock option forecasting using ML models and improved trading strategies.
We apply the Zipf power law to financial time series of WIG20 index daily changes (open-close). Thanks to the mapping of time series signal into the sequence of 2k+1 'spin-like' states, where k=0, 1/2, 1, 3/2, ..., we are able to describe any time series increments, with almost arbitrary accuracy, as the one of such 's…
Climate-contingent finance helps adapt to uncertain climate risks.
Model analyzes optimal interbank networks during liquidity shocks, revealing core-periphery structures and co-investment requirements.
Study on robust utility maximization with nonconcave utility functions under projective determinacy.
In this paper we characterise the propensity of big capital investments to systematically deliver poor outcomes as "fragility," a notion suggested by Nassim Taleb. A thing or system that is easily harmed by randomness is fragile. We argue that, contrary to their appearance, big capital investments break easily - i.e. d…
Model investor risk preferences to adjust real option valuation.
The paper evaluates criteria for selecting cryptocurrencies based on historical data.
We consider a general discrete-time financial market with proportional transaction costs as in [Kabanov, Stricker and Rásonyi Finance and Stochastics 7 (2003) 403--411] and [Schachermayer Math. Finance 14 (2004) 19--48]. In addition to the usual investment in financial assets, we assume that the agents can invest part …
In this paper, we use replica analysis to determine the investment strategy that can maximize the net present value for portfolios containing multiple development projects. Replica analysis was developed in statistical mechanical informatics and econophysics to evaluate disordered systems, and here we use it to formula…
Paper defines the payback period for nonconventional cash flows using axioms.
ROI-driven data analytics guides investment in empirical data analysis.
With the horrific Jamal Khashoggi killing, Mohammed Bin Salman's image in the international community has been damaged. This study seeks to test whether Khashoggi murder discourage businesses from investing in Saudi Arabia. We use an event-study methodology and asset pricing model to assess, at sectoral level, the dyna…
This paper explores crypto, blockchain, and Metaverse risks and opportunities.
SFC aims to protect the Amazon with a digital currency and smart contracts.
Project predicts stock prices for robust portfolio design in Indian sectors.
In the present paper, the minimal investment risk for a portfolio optimization problem with imposed budget and investment concentration constraints is considered using replica analysis. Since the minimal investment risk is influenced by the investment concentration constraint (as well as the budget constraint), it is i…
The paper clarifies long-horizon investment and DCA, showing no risk reduction but different exposure profiles.
AI framework predicts invoice dilution in supply chain finance.
The paper proposes a dynamic risk measure approach for evaluating defined-contribution pension funds.
ChatGPT scores corporate investment plans, predicting future spending and returns.
Investment herding can reduce household consumption, a phenomenon called crowding-out effect.