The paper evaluates company investment value using machine learning models.
problem Evaluating the investment value of companies based on machine learning.
method Data mining, feature selection, cross-validation, stacking model, Bayesian Ridge Regression.
result The RMSE of the final model is 3.047, indicating improved stability and generalization.
Investors seek to attribute performance to various features using Shapley value method.
problem Attributing performance to different features in an investment process.
method Use Shapley value method for attribution, either exactly or approximately.
result Shapley value method provides a preferred attribution approach.
This paper proposes an embedding-based neural network for more accurate investment return prediction.
problem Accurately predicting investment returns requires understanding industry knowledge and news, as well as leveraging relevant theories.
method The approach uses embedding to encode investment IDs into low-dimensional vectors, leveraging dual branches to separate different information, and employs the swish activation function.
result The proposed embedding-based dual branch model outperforms traditional machine learning models like Xgboost, Lightgbm, and Catboost on the Ubiquant Market Prediction dataset.
This paper proposes a novel trading system which plays the role of an artificial counselor for stock investment. In this paper, the stock future prices (technical features) are predicted using Support Vector Regression. Thereafter, the predicted prices are used to recommend which portions of the budget an investor shou…
Study uses machine learning and PolyModel to improve hedge fund performance.
problem Improving hedge fund investment performance with machine learning.
method Integration of machine learning techniques, PolyModel feature selection, and analysis of fund size.
result Machine learning enhances cumulative returns but increases annual volatility.
Deep learning predicts cross-sectional stock prices for practical investment.
problem Predicting stock prices using cross-sectional factors.
method Deep learning model for daily stock price prediction.
result Profitable investment framework demonstrated in Japanese stock market.
Strategic feature manipulation helps learners identify meaningful variables in online regression settings.
problem Strategic feature manipulation poses a challenge for learners in online regression settings.
method Investigates how strategic feature manipulation by individuals can help learners recover meaningful features.
result Simple learner behavior can help accurately recover meaningful features and incentivize feature improvement.
Model for optimal cybersecurity investment considering clustered cyberattacks.
problem Optimal investment in cybersecurity to reduce system vulnerability under clustered cyberattacks.
method Developed a continuous-time stochastic model using a Hawkes process, extended Gordon-Loeb model, solved as a Markovian stochastic optimal control problem.
result Investment policies that account for attack clustering lead to more effective and responsive strategies, improving upon static and Poisson-based approaches.
Investment strategy for NYSE stocks minimizes market correlation.
problem Minimizing market correlation for steady returns.
method Combining momentum, fundamentals, and analyst recommendations; feature selection; backtesting various portfolio construction methods.
result Risk parity outperformed other methods, offering higher Sharpe ratio and lower beta.
Financial markets, with their vast range of different investment opportunities, can be seen as a system of many different simultaneous games with diverse and often unknown levels of risk and reward. We introduce generalizations to the classic Kelly investment game [Kelly (1956)] that incorporates these features, and us…
This paper defines systematic value investing as an empirical optimization problem. Predictive modeling is introduced as a systematic value investing methodology with dynamic and optimization features. A predictive modeling process is demonstrated using financial metrics from Gray & Carlisle and Buffett & Clark. A 31-y…
Investment strategy in ambiguous financial markets with learning
problem Continuous time investment problem in multi-asset Black-Scholes market with model ambiguity
method Optimal dynamic investment strategy within the class of all adapted strategies which allow for learning
result Ambiguity averse investors invest less in risky assets
Machine learning identifies ESG patterns for better stock selection.
problem Linking ESG behavior to financial performance.
method Machine learning algorithm mapping ESG features to financial outcomes.
result Machine learning strategy outperforms traditional ESG screening.
Model predicts stock market trends for better investment decisions.
problem Identifying optimal times to buy and sell stocks.
method XGBoost machine learning model using time series data and feature engineering.
result Model accurately predicts stock market trends and their endpoints.
Paper uses time series transformers to predict investment success.
problem Optimizing investment sourcing in VC and GC.
method Transformer-based Multivariate Time Series Classifier (TMTSC).
result TMTSC improves decision making in VC and GC investments.
In this theoretical paper, I propose creation of a venture bank, able to multiply the capital of a venture capital firm by at least 47 times, without requiring access to the Federal Reserve or other central bank apart from settlement. This concept rests on obtaining default swap instruments on loans in order to create …
Paper proposes NNAFC for automatic financial factor construction.
problem Manual factor construction is time-consuming and prone to bias.
method NNAFC uses neural networks to automatically construct diversified financial factors.
result NNAFC outperforms GP in constructing more informative and diversified factors.
Technical analysis is used to discover investment opportunities. To test this hypothesis we propose an hybrid system using machine learning techniques together with genetic algorithms. Using technical analysis there are more ways to represent a currency exchange time series than the ones it is possible to test computat…
Dynamic rule-based investment strategies outperform static ones in pension schemes.
problem Managing retirement income with dynamic investment strategies.
method Rule-based investment strategies compared to dynamic programming.
result Rule-based strategies achieve higher probability of meeting retirement income targets.
Financial advisors use KYC info but not client behaviours to guide investments.
problem Financial advisors use KYC info but not client behaviours to guide investments.
method Modified behavioural finance recency, frequency, monetary model for features; machine learning clustering algorithms.
result Trade and transaction frequency and volume are most informative for investor behaviours.
Model predicts stationary equilibrium in investment decisions of firms in fluctuating markets.
problem Investment decisions in fluctuating markets with varying volatility and commodity prices.
method Mean-field model with Gaussian productivity shocks and two-state Markov chain for macroeconomic events.
result Existence, uniqueness, and characterization of stationary mean-field equilibrium with barrier-type investment strategy.
Given a new candidate asset represented as a time series of returns, how should a quantitative investment manager be thinking about assessing its usefulness? This is a key qualitative question inherent to the investment process which we aim to make precise. We argue that the usefulness of an asset can only be determine…
TDA improves cryptocurrency portfolio management.
problem Traditional methods fail to manage cryptocurrencies effectively.
method Topological Data Analysis (TDA) for identifying investment opportunities.
result TDA-based portfolio management outperforms traditional methods.
Optimal insurance and investment strategy under exponential preferences in a correlated market model.
problem Optimal investment and reinsurance strategy for an insurance company under exponential preferences.
method Stochastic control techniques to construct a forward dynamic exponential utility and characterize the optimal strategy.
result Characterization of the optimal investment and reinsurance strategy in a correlated market model.
Unsupervised clustering can reproduce categorization systems if features and metrics are correctly selected.
problem Reproducing expert-provided categorization systems using unsupervised clustering.
method Investigated using toy datasets and real-world fund categorization. Used appropriate feature selection and a supervised Random Forest-based distance metric.
result Unsupervised clustering can reproduce ground truth classes if features and metrics are correctly selected.
A framework for goal-based investing with penalties for fund transfers.
problem Investors' mental accounting and multiple investment goals.
method Continuous-time portfolio selection with mental costs and penalties.
result The value function is the unique solution to a complex system of equations.
This paper addresses practical challenges in portfolio optimisation for automated trading.
problem Implementing optimal portfolio weights into real trades with transaction costs and lot sizes.
method Two-stage framework: optimises portfolio weights first, then generates realistic trades.
result The two-stage approach effectively converts optimal portfolios into actionable trades, mitigating practical difficulties.
This article is the term paper of the course Investments. We mainly focus on modeling long-term investment decisions of a typical utility-maximizing individual, with features of Chinese stock market in perspective. We adopt an OR based methodology with market information as input parameters to carry out the solution. T…
TDA improves stock portfolio selection by analyzing data structure.
problem Traditional portfolio selection methods fail to handle stock market data complexities.
method Two-stage method involving time series generation and clustering with TDA features.
result TDA-based portfolio outperforms other methods consistently over different time frames.
Predicting startup success using Crunchbase data and deep learning.
problem Predicting startup success in a volatile entrepreneurial ecosystem.
method Novel deep learning model integrating funding metrics, founder features, and industry category.
result Achieved 14 times capital growth and identified high-potential startups.
Investment and insurance decisions are studied in a model with nonlinear portfolio frictions and background risk.
problem Investment and insurance decisions under a model with nonlinear portfolio frictions and background risk.
method Dynamic programming approach to find optimality conditions.
result Agent can choose to assume, partially assume, or purchase total insurance against adverse jumps in wealth.
Solves the Merton investment-consumption problem using a new approach.
problem Infinite-horizon Merton investment-consumption problem in a constant-parameter Black-Scholes-Merton market.
method Simple and elegant argument involving a stochastic perturbation of the utility function.
result Overcomes complications in existing primal verification proofs.
Model investor risk preferences to adjust real option valuation.
problem Investor risk preferences impact real option valuation.
method Model investor heterogeneity with different required returns, discounting cash flows with investor and market rates.
result Risk-adjusted valuation model facilitates subjective decision making.
We combine forward investment performance processes and ambiguity averse portfolio selection. We introduce the notion of robust forward criteria which addresses the issues of ambiguity in model specification and in preferences and investment horizon specification. It describes the evolution of time-consistent ambiguity…
This paper investigates a hybrid stochastic differential reinsurance and investment game between one reinsurer and two insurers, including a stochastic Stackelberg differential subgame and a non-zero-sum stochastic differential subgame. The reinsurer, as the leader of the Stackelberg game, can price reinsurance premium…
AlphaMLDigger predicts excess returns in fluctuating markets.
problem Mining effective information for investment decisions in a volatile market.
method Two-phase approach using deep NLP for sentiment analysis and ensemble ML models.
result Ensemble models achieve 0.984 accuracy, significantly outperforming baseline.
Study assesses additional factors for identifying persistent alpha in pension funds.
problem Identify persistent alpha in pension funds using additional factors.
method Reproduces Fama and French's (2010) experiment with additional features and compares results to 3-factor model.
result Additional factors improve persistence of alpha assessment in pension funds.
MarketSenseAI uses AI to select stocks with 10-30% excess alpha.
problem Selecting profitable stocks in financial markets.
method Integrates GPT-4 for analyzing diverse data and decision-making.
result Demonstrated exceptional performance with up to 72% cumulative return.
The study reveals distinct patterns in retail investors' holding periods affecting stock returns.
problem Understanding the impact of retail investors' investment horizons on stock returns.
method Using self-reported holding periods from StockTwits, the study categorizes retail investors into long-horizon and short-horizon groups and analyzes their return patterns.
result Long-horizon retail investors exhibit underreaction to earnings announcements, while short-horizon investors show overreaction.
Paper finds a new principle for optimizing consumption and wealth using Tsallis entropy.
problem Optimal consumption-investment problem with recursive utility.
method Established connection to quadratic BSDE, derived stochastic maximum principle.
result Proved existence of optimal strategy and analyzed coupled system.
Survey of AI in quant finance, from deep learning to LLMs.
problem Improving predictive modeling and automation in asset management.
method Exploring AI contributions to quant investment pipeline, from human-crafted features to LLMs.
result AI has enabled scalable modeling and autonomous agents in quant finance.
We study the continuous time portfolio optimization model on the market where the mean returns of individual securities or asset categories are linearly dependent on underlying economic factors. We introduce the functional Qγ featuring the expected earnings yield of portfolio minus a penalty term proportional with a…
A continuous-time Markowitz's mean-variance portfolio selection problem is studied in a market with one stock, one bond, and proportional transaction costs. This is a singular stochastic control problem,inherently in a finite time horizon. With a series of transformations, the problem is turned into a so-called double …
We provide an exact solution to the ideal-gas-like models studied in econophysics to understand the microscopic origin of Pareto-law. In these class of models the key ingredient necessary for having a self-organized scale-free steady-state distribution is the trading or collision rule where agents or particles save a d…
Study many-player investment-consumption games with power FPPs, finding market-risk preference affects consumption.
problem Investment and consumption optimization in a mean field competition setting.
method Solve many-player and mean field games using power FPPs, providing closed-form solutions.
result Market-risk relative consumption preference affects agent's consumption decisions.
We consider the problem of optimal investment and consumption in a class of multidimensional jump-diffusion models in which asset prices are subject to mutually exciting jump processes. This captures a type of contagion where each downward jump in an asset's price results in increased likelihood of further jumps, both …
Enhanced financial forecasting using supervised autoencoders with noise augmentation and triple labeling.
problem Improving investment strategy performance on noisy financial data.
method Supervised autoencoders with noise augmentation and triple barrier labeling.
result Supervised autoencoders with balanced noise augmentation and bottleneck size significantly boost strategy effectiveness.
Wealth inequality is an important matter for economic theory and policy. Ongoing debates have been discussing recent rise in wealth inequality in connection with recent development of active financial markets around the world. Existing literature on wealth distribution connects the origins of wealth inequality with a v…