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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for inverse temperature

Study shows sample complexity for logistic regression with normal covariates.

problem Estimating parameters of logistic regression with normal design.
method Analyzes sample complexity in terms of dimension and inverse temperature.
result Shows two change-points in sample complexity curve based on inverse temperature.

Partition functions of probability distributions are important quantities for model evaluation and comparisons. We present a new method to compute partition functions of complex and multimodal distributions. Such distributions are often sampled using simulated tempering, which augments the target space with an auxiliar…

2016-03-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Estimates inverse temperature of Ising models with a single sample.

problem Estimating inverse temperature in truncated Ising models with hard constraints.
method Maximizing pseudolikelihood to estimate the inverse temperature.
result An estimator that is nearly O(n)O(n) time and O(Δ3/n)O(Δ^3/\sqrt{n})-consistent.

The paper analyzes the InfoNCE loss under different temperature schedules using Langevin dynamics.

problem Understanding the dynamics of InfoNCE loss under fixed versus annealed temperature schedules.
method Modeling embedding evolution under Langevin dynamics on a compact Riemannian manifold, with theoretical guarantees for convergence.
result Slow logarithmic inverse-temperature schedules ensure convergence to globally optimal representations, while faster schedules risk suboptimal minima.

A spin model relating physical to financial variables is presented. This work is the first to introduce the concept of negative absolute temperature into stock market dynamics by establishing a rigorous formal analogy between physical and financial variables. Based on this model, an algorithm evaluating negative temper…

2012-06-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Algorithm learns Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model parameters at low temperatures.

problem Learning parameters of random graphical models at low temperatures.
method Multiplicative-weight update algorithm for polynomial time learning.
result Algorithm learns SK model parameters at βlognβ\leq \sqrt{\log n}.

We investigate Ising model description of dynamics of stock price. The model is defined in near 2 dimensions, one dimension is time and another represents ensemble of stocks, and strength of response of investors to price change corresponds to inverse temperature of the system. At critical temperature, infinitely long …

2004-02-20abs ↗pdf ↗

A new sampler and temperature estimation method enable efficient learning of Boltzmann Machines.

problem Efficient learning of Boltzmann Machines (BMs) is challenging due to high training costs and difficulty in parallelization.
method Proposed a new Boltzmann sampler (Langevin SB, LSB) and an efficient method (Conditional Expectation Matching, CEM) for estimating inverse temperature.
result Established an efficient learning framework (Sampler-Adaptive Learning, SAL) for BMs with greater expressive power than Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs).

In this paper, we generalize Magnanini-Sakaguchi's result [MS3] from Euclidean space to spaces of constant curvature. More precisely, we show that if a conductor satisfying the exterior geodesic sphere condition in the space of constant curvature has initial temperature 0 and its boundary is kept at temperature 1 (at a…

2008-07-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Study on uniquely determining thermal properties from boundary temperature and heat flux measurements.

problem Determine thermal conductivity and volumetric heat capacity from boundary measurements.
method Uniqueness proof for isotropic and anisotropic media under thermal diffusivity assumption.
result Uniqueness of thermal properties in all dimensions and up to a gauge in two dimensions.

Improves inverse uncertainty quantification for time-dependent data using PCA and deep neural networks.

problem Efficiently quantify model input uncertainties from time-dependent experimental data.
method Functional PCA for dimensionality reduction, deep neural networks for surrogate modeling, Bayesian neural networks for uncertainty estimation.
result The proposed method reduces the computational cost and improves the agreement with experimental data.

The paper models quanto weather and energy derivatives using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and develops methods to hedge them.

problem Valuation and hedging of quanto derivatives on temperature and electricity.
method Developed a coupled model using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and Conditional Least Square method for parameter estimation.
result Explicit and semi-explicit formulas for quanto options and hedging strategies are derived.

Bayesian neural networks use temperature adjustments to improve predictive performance.

problem Lack of theoretical generalization guarantees for Bayesian neural networks.
method Temperature adjustments to balance likelihood and prior regularization.
result Improved predictive performance through temperature adjustments.

AdaAnn optimizes annealing for efficient probability density approximation.

problem Efficiently approximating complex probability distributions with multiple modes.
method AdaAnn is an adaptive annealing scheduler that adjusts temperature increments based on KL divergence.
result AdaAnn improves computational efficiency in variational inference and parameter estimation.

We investigate different ways of generating approximate solutions to the pairwise Markov random field (MRF) selection problem. We focus mainly on the inverse Ising problem, but discuss also the somewhat related inverse Gaussian problem because both types of MRF are suitable for inference tasks with the belief propagati…

2012-10-19abs ↗pdf ↗

New framework recovers reward and rationality parameters from game behavior.

problem Statistical ambiguity in identifying reward and rationality parameters in competitive games.
method Blind Inverse Game Theory (Blind-IGT) using entropy-regularized Quantal Response Equilibrium and Normalized Least Squares (NLS) estimator.
result Optimal convergence rate of O(N1/2)\mathcal{O}(N^{-1/2}) for joint parameter recovery.

New spatiotemporal Besov process improves CT image reconstruction and other inverse problems.

problem Handling abrupt changes and sharp contrasts in spatiotemporal data.
method Generalized Besov process (STBP) with Q-exponential process for temporal correlation.
result STBP outperforms traditional methods in dynamic reconstruction and inverse problems.

SKT improves EKI for Bayesian inverse problems with non-Gaussian targets.

problem Efficiently solving Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward models and non-Gaussian posterior distributions.
method Embedding EKI and FAKI within a Bayesian annealing scheme to adapt tpCN sampler.
result Significant improvements in convergence rate compared to standard SMC and pCN.

Functional PLS improves prediction and inference for scalar responses from functional predictors.

problem Estimating scalar responses from functional predictors in an ill-posed inverse problem.
method Functional partial least squares (PLS) estimator with adaptive early stopping and new tests.
result PLS attains nearly minimax-optimal convergence rates and detects local alternatives.

We describe an adaptation of the simulated annealing algorithm to nonparametric clustering and related probabilistic models. This new algorithm learns nonparametric latent structure over a growing and constantly churning subsample of training data, where the portion of data subsampled can be interpreted as the inverse …

2014-02-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Temperature scaling improves model uncertainty but not diversity in LLMs.

problem Improving the calibration and stochasticity of probabilistic models.
method Investigates theoretical properties of temperature scaling in classification and LLMs.
result Temperature scaling increases model uncertainty but not diversity in LLMs.

Study local sensitivity of HDD and CDD temperature derivatives prices.

problem Understanding how temperature derivatives prices change with small temperature changes.
method Analyzes sensitivity of HDD and CDD futures and options prices to temperature perturbations using a CAR process.
result Identifies the order of the CAR process and its impact on temperature derivatives prices.

We introduce a temperature into the exponential function and replace the softmax output layer of neural nets by a high temperature generalization. Similarly, the logarithm in the log loss we use for training is replaced by a low temperature logarithm. By tuning the two temperatures we create loss functions that are non…

2019-06-08abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method selects optimal temperature for Bayesian Deep Learning.

problem Finding the optimal temperature for improving predictive performance in Bayesian Deep Learning.
method Data-driven approach to estimate temperature as a model parameter.
result Our method performs comparably to grid search but at a fraction of the cost.

New adaptive temperature selection improves parallel tempering efficiency.

problem Enhancing mixing in multi-modal distributions using parallel tempering.
method Adaptive temperature selection using policy gradient approach.
result Lower integrated autocorrelation times achieved compared to traditional methods.

This paper measures temperature in agent systems using volatility.

problem How to measure temperature in agent systems.
method Examined an agent system with two decision options in a news environment, established the measurement equation, and outlined the concept of temperature measurement.
result Illustrated a strategy for influencing average opinion in competing subsystems.

Attention temperature improves robustness of ICL in high-dimensional settings.

problem ICL robustness failure under distribution shift in high dimensions.
method Analyzed a Transformer with approximate softmax attention, derived a closed-form error expression, and showed optimal temperature minimizes error.
result Optimal attention temperature minimizes ICL generalization error under distribution shift.

Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar orbiting weather satellites. We derive two novel algorithms for computation that …

2018-05-18abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper analyzes extreme temperature forecasting using machine learning models.

problem Forecasting extreme temperatures in U.S. cities.
method Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Multilayer Perceptrons, Gaussian Processes.
result Multilayer Perceptrons were found to be the most effective approach for forecasting extreme temperatures.

The Gibbs algorithm's generalization error is bounded, improving with prior volume in low temperatures.

problem Bounding the generalization error of the Gibbs algorithm in low temperature regimes.
method Analyzes the Gibbs algorithm's performance, extending known high-temperature bounds to low-temperature scenarios.
result With high probability, the generalization error decreases with the total prior volume of similar hypotheses.

Optimizes contrastive learning with individualized temperatures for better performance on imbalanced datasets.

problem The common practice of using a global temperature parameter ignores the varying semantic similarity across different anchor data.
method Proposes a new robust contrastive loss inspired by distributionally robust optimization (DRO) and an efficient stochastic algorithm for automatic temperature individualization.
result Our method automatically learns a suitable temperature for each sample, improving performance on imbalanced datasets.

Improved similarity search in embeddings using InfoNCE loss.

problem Improving similarity search in embedding models trained by contrastive learning.
method Introduced a new continuity bound for InfoNCE loss via Gâteaux differentiation, preserving the averaging effect of negative samples.
result Demonstrated that the averaging effect of kk negative samples in InfoNCE loss carries over to stabilisation of generalisation error as kk grows.

New method uses RBM flows to find critical temperatures in Ising models.

problem Detecting critical temperatures in RBM flows without model topology information.
method Iterative sampling from RBM mapped on Ising model temperature space using a neural network thermometer.
result Flow of RBM trained on Ising spin configurations approaches critical temperature around kBTc/J2.269k_B T_c / J \approx 2.269.