Proposes stabilized weights for causal inference using isotonic calibration.
problem Stability and bias issues in inverse propensity weighting.
method Post-hoc isotonic calibration of inverse propensity weights.
result Improves performance of doubly robust estimators of average treatment effect.
New method improves causal effect estimation by addressing imbalance in training data.
problem Imbalance between treatment and control groups in training data.
method Combines distributionally robust optimization and weight regularization.
result Consistent improvements over existing methods in experiments.
Improves robustness of propensity score estimators in challenging settings.
problem Limited overlap, small sample sizes, or unbalanced data.
method Extends calibration techniques for propensity score models, focusing on sample-splitting schemes.
result Calibration reduces variance and bias in inverse probability weighting and double/debiased machine learning frameworks.
Observational cohort studies with oversampled exposed subjects are typically implemented to understand the causal effect of a rare exposure. Because the distribution of exposed subjects in the sample differs from the source population, estimation of a propensity score function (i.e., probability of exposure given basel…
FIDDLE uses deep learning to estimate ATE from complex data.
problem Estimating ATE from high-dimensional, correlated covariates with sparse nonlinear effects.
method Factor-augmented deep learning for propensity and outcome models.
result FIDDLE consistently estimates ATE under model misspecification and is semiparametrically efficient.
Study designs for estimating treatment effects in adaptive experiments.
problem Estimating treatment effects under adaptive treatment assignment.
method Propose and analyze IPW and AIPW estimators, establish CLTs under design stability.
result Central limit theorems for IPW and AIPW estimators under design stability.
The paper resolves the paradox of using unlabeled data for treatment effect estimation.
problem Using unlabeled data to estimate propensity scores for treatment effect estimation.
method Proposes a simple procedure to reconcile the use of estimated propensity scores with the advice to use true propensity scores.
result Direct regression may be preferable to inverse-propensity weighting in many circumstances.
The paper addresses statistical inference for online decision-making in a contextual bandit setting.
problem Understanding the performance of reward models in online decision-making with contextual information.
method The paper uses the contextual bandit framework with a linear reward model and the ε-greedy policy to address the exploration-exploitation dilemma. It employs the martingale central limit theorem and inverse propensity score weighting to establish asymptotic normality of parameter estimators. result The online ordinary least squares estimator and the online weighted least squares estimator are asymptotically normal, providing insights into the performance of the reward model.
In most real-world recommender systems, the observed rating data are subject to selection bias, and the data are thus missing-not-at-random. Developing a method to facilitate the learning of a recommender with biased feedback is one of the most challenging problems, as it is widely known that naive approaches under sel…
Inverse classification uses an induced classifier as a queryable oracle to guide test instances towards a preferred posterior class label. The result produced from the process is a set of instance-specific feature perturbations, or recommendations, that optimally improve the probability of the class label. In this work…
Paper proposes CounterSample to improve convergence in LTR models.
problem Large variance in IPS weights slows convergence in LTR models.
method Introduces CounterSample algorithm with provably better convergence.
result CounterSample converges faster than standard IPS-weighted methods.
New method reduces confidence interval sizes for causal inference.
problem Inaccurate propensity scores and extreme scores cause large confidence intervals.
method Data-dependent Coarse IPW (CIPW) estimators.
result Robust CIPW estimators reduce confidence interval sizes to ε+1/√n.
GEAR uses auxiliary data to estimate optimal decisions in studies with limited primary outcomes.
problem Estimating optimal decisions when primary outcomes are not available in experimental samples.
method GEAR uses augmented inverse propensity weighting to estimate optimal decisions based on auxiliary data.
result GEAR estimators and value estimators have established asymptotic properties and are validated in simulations and a real application.
R-Learning uses inverse-variance weights to estimate treatment effects more accurately.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (CATEs) with stable and accurate methods.
method R-Learning with inverse-variance weights (IVWs) for pseudo-outcome regression.
result IVWs improve the stability and accuracy of CATE estimation.
When learning from a batch of logged bandit feedback, the discrepancy between the policy to be learned and the off-policy training data imposes statistical and computational challenges. Unlike classical supervised learning and online learning settings, in batch contextual bandit learning, one only has access to a colle…
Proposes a new method to handle data heterogeneity in causal inference.
problem Challenges of collaborating between different data centers due to heterogeneity.
method Collaborative inverse propensity score weighting estimator to adjust for distribution shift.
result Significant improvements over traditional meta-analysis methods when dealing with increased heterogeneity.
Adaptive experiment designs can dramatically improve statistical efficiency in randomized trials, but they also complicate statistical inference. For example, it is now well known that the sample mean is biased in adaptive trials. Inferential challenges are exacerbated when our parameter of interest differs from the pa…
Estimating average causal effect (ACE) is useful whenever we want to know the effect of an intervention on a given outcome. In the absence of a randomized experiment, many methods such as stratification and inverse propensity weighting have been proposed to estimate ACE. However, it is hard to know which method is opti…
Paper tackles informative labels in semi-supervised learning, proposing debiasing methods.
problem Informative labels can bias semi-supervised learning models, especially when some classes are more likely to be labeled.
method Estimates missing-data mechanism and uses inverse propensity weighting to debias SSL algorithms.
result Proposed methods improve SSL performance, demonstrated on various datasets including medical ones.
A new tensor completion method handles missing data with missing not at random entries.
problem Handling missing data in tensors where the probability of observation depends on other entries.
method Estimate propensities using convex relaxation, then use higher-order SVD with inverse propensities weights.
result Finite-sample error bounds on the completed tensor are provided.
Improved off-policy selection and learning in contextual bandits with better guarantees.
problem Selecting or training a reward-maximizing policy using data from a fixed behavior policy.
method A betting-based confidence bound applied to an inverse propensity weight sequence for off-policy selection, and a freezing condition for off-policy learning.
result The proposed methods achieve significantly improved guarantees over prior work, especially in small-data regimes.
Unified causal inference framework using distribution adaptation.
problem Estimating Average Treatment Effects (ATE) under uncertainty in propensity scores.
method Reframed as domain adaptation problem, using machine learning techniques.
result Joint Robust Estimator (JRE) achieves up to 15% reduction in MSE.
Kernelized bandit algorithm tackles adaptive contextual bandits with single-index models.
problem Adaptive contextual bandits with single-index models and unknown link functions.
method Kernelized ε-greedy algorithm combining Stein-based index estimation and kernel ridge regression for reward functions.
result Unified framework for simultaneous learning and inference in single-index contextual bandits.
Statistical inference for misspecified contextual bandits is challenging due to adaptivity issues.
problem Statistical inference for misspecified contextual bandits
method Inverse-probability-weighted Z-estimation framework
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimator with sandwich variance estimator
In this paper, we propose a robust method to estimate the average treatment effects in observational studies when the number of potential confounders is possibly much greater than the sample size. We first use a class of penalized M-estimators for the propensity score and outcome models. We then calibrate the initial e…
Proposes MDR estimator for unbiased OPE with large action spaces.
problem Severe bias and variance tradeoffs in OPE with large action spaces.
method Marginalized Doubly Robust (MDR) estimator, reducing variance and bias.
result MDR estimator is unbiased under weaker assumptions than MIPS.
New algorithm improves causal effect estimation for continuous treatments.
problem Observational causal inference with continuous treatments.
method End-to-end entropy balancing for maximizing causal inference accuracy.
result Our algorithm estimates causal effect more accurately than baseline.
Algorithm identifies best arm with biased proxy and selective ground truth audits.
problem Fixed-confidence best-arm identification with biased proxy and selective ground truth.
method Propensity-weighted estimator and adaptive auditing algorithm.
result Plug-in Neyman rule achieves near-oracle audit efficiency.
DTS improves robustness of bandit algorithms in nonstationary environments.
problem Brittle behavior of multi-armed bandit algorithms in nonstationary exogenous factors.
method Deconfounded Thompson Sampling (DTS) that projects population-level performance while controlling for context.
result DTS provides resilience to exogenous variation and balances exploration and exploitation.
Optimizes insurance pricing by accounting for policyholders' price sensitivity.
problem Traditional insurance pricing does not consider policyholders' price sensitivity.
method Formulates insurance pricing as a decision-making problem and uses off-policy evaluation and stochastic control.
result Neural networks outperform existing techniques for policy optimization.
Adapting policy learning for data collected from evolving systems.
problem Challenges in learning optimal policies from adaptively collected data.
method Proposes an algorithm based on generalized augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimators to control worst-case estimation variance.
result Achieves minimax rate optimal regret guarantees even with diminishing exploration.
We study offline recommender learning from explicit rating feedback in the presence of selection bias. A current promising solution for the bias is the inverse propensity score (IPS) estimation. However, the performance of existing propensity-based methods can suffer significantly from the propensity estimation bias. I…
PPI uses predictions and weighting to infer from partially labeled data.
problem Valid inference with partially labeled data.
method Combines model-based predictions with bias correction from labeled data, using Horvitz-Thompson and Hájek corrections.
result IPW-adjusted PPI with estimated propensities performs similarly to known-probability case.
CAEL-MIPS learns embeddings to improve MIPS for better OPE in contextual bandits.
problem High variance in IPS weighting for OPE in large action spaces.
method Context-Action Embedding Learning (CAEL) for MIPS to minimize MSE.
result CAEL-MIPS outperforms baselines in MSE for OPE in contextual bandits.
A new method combines online and offline learning to tackle contextual bandits with missing action support.
problem Learning optimal policies with logged data when the logging policy has deficient support.
method Hybrid approach using online exploration to exploit supported actions and offline learning to avoid unnecessary explorations.
result Determines an optimal policy with theoretical guarantees using minimal online explorations.
DOPE efficiently estimates ATE with complex covariates.
problem Efficient estimation of ATE from complex covariates.
method Proposed DOPE framework for efficient adjustment.
result DOPE retains efficiency even with highly predictive covariates.
Novel LSE estimator improves off-policy learning and evaluation.
problem High variance and poor performance with low-quality propensity scores and heavy-tailed reward distributions.
method Introduces a novel estimator based on the log-sum-exponential (LSE) operator.
result Achieves convergence rate of O(n−ε/(1+ε)) for regret bounds. Paper tackles exposure bias in recommender systems using contrastive learning.
problem Exposure bias in large-scale recommender systems.
method Contrastive learning to reduce exposure bias via inverse propensity weighting.
result Contrastive learning effectively reduces exposure bias in recommender systems.
This tutorial introduces causal modeling methods for researchers.
problem Understanding causal relationships in research studies.
method Integrates potential outcomes and graphical methods for causal modeling.
result Clear notation and practical examples for applied researchers.
The paper develops a method to estimate consumer preferences from observed rankings.
problem Estimating consumer preferences from partial ranking information.
method Interpreting observed rankings as pairwise comparisons, modeling latent utility, and correcting for selection bias.
result The method improves recommendation performance, especially for previously unconsumed products.
Pessimistic estimator improves multi-objective policy optimization.
problem Optimizing multi-objective policies from existing data.
method Pessimistic estimator based on inverse propensity scores (IPS).
result Pessimistic estimator outperforms naive IPS estimator in theory and experiments.
Unified framework for semi-supervised regression with misspecified models.
problem Estimating regression coefficients in conditional mean models with unlabeled data.
method Developed an augmented inverse probability weighted (AIPW) method using regularized calibrated estimators for PS and OR nuisance models.
result The proposed estimator is consistent, asymptotically normal, and provides valid confidence intervals even with misspecified OR models and high-dimensional data.
Efficient policy learning from observational data using weighted classification reductions.
problem Efficient policy evaluation does not necessarily lead to efficient estimation of policy parameters.
method Proposed an estimation approach based on generalized method of moments, efficient for policy parameters.
result Demonstrated empirical efficiency and regret benefits of a proposed method.
A framework for private causal effect estimation without structural assumptions.
problem Estimating causal effects from private observational data.
method Model-agnostic framework that privatizes predictions and aggregation steps.
result Maintains competitive performance under realistic privacy budgets.
Proposes rounding method for precise treatment effect estimation under budget constraints.
problem Resource-constrained experimental design for precise treatment effect estimation.
method Dependent randomized rounding procedure to convert assignment probabilities into binary treatment decisions.
result Improved estimator precision through variance reduction and efficient inference.
New estimator reduces variance in off-policy evaluation for contextual bandits.
problem High variance in current OPE methods for contextual bandits.
method Marginal Density Ratio (MR) estimator focusing on marginal distribution shift.
result MR estimator reduces variance compared to IPW and DR methods.
New method for estimating treatment effects without complex propensity models.
problem Estimating treatment effects in dynamic treatment regimes.
method Recursive Riesz representer estimation for de-biasing corrections.
result Directly estimates de-biasing corrections without auxiliary models.
Differentially private method for estimating individualized treatment rules.
problem Estimating individualized treatment rules while preserving privacy.
method Differentially private two-stage empirical risk minimization (DP-2ERM).
result Improved privacy-utility trade-off demonstrated through simulations and applications.