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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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61123184245 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for intrinsic probability

The paper improves the probability flow ODE sampler for faster sampling of natural images.

problem Improving the convergence rate of the probability flow ODE sampler.
method Adapting the probability flow ODE sampler to exploit intrinsic low-dimensional structures in natural image data.
result Achieves a dimension-free convergence rate of O(k/T)O(k/T) in total variation distance, improving upon existing results.

Revisits VIC method to correct intrinsic reward bias in stochastic environments.

problem Intrinsic reward bias in VIC leading to suboptimal solutions.
method Proposes two methods based on transitional probability model and Gaussian mixture model to correct bias.
result Achieves maximal empowerment through corrected intrinsic reward.

Market activity scales near a constant of 0.632 in intrinsic time.

problem Understanding the stability of market scaling laws.
method Modeling market directional changes as a memoryless exponential hazard process and identifying the intrinsic time scaling constant.
result The intrinsic time scaling constant is 11/e=0.6321 - 1/e = 0.632.

We present four models for a random graph and show that, in each case, the probability that a graph is intrinsically knotted goes to one as the number of vertices increases. We also argue that, for k18k \geq 18, most graphs of order kk are intrinsically knotted and, for k2n+9k \geq 2n+9, most of order kk are not nn-apex…

2018-11-23abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper reinterprets Bayesian priors and posteriors using Riemannian manifolds.

problem The dependence of maximum a posteriori estimates on parametrization.
method Assuming a Riemannian manifold with Fisher metric, the paper reinterprets priors and posteriors as distributions over probability distributions, making estimates independent of parametrization.
result A maximum a posteriori estimate independent of parametrization is defined.

Study on predicting sequences with Gaussian constraints, linking to intrinsic volumes and metric complexity.

problem Predicting sequences almost as well as the best Gaussian distribution with mean in a given subset.
method Expressed minimax regret in terms of intrinsic volumes, established comparison inequality for Wills functional, characterized global covering numbers and local Gaussian widths.
result Sharp estimates on the log-Laplace transform of intrinsic volume sequence for a general nonconvex set.

In this article, we study the geodesic problem in a generalized metric space, in which the distance function satisfies a relaxed triangle inequality d(x,y)σ(d(x,z)+d(z,y))d(x,y)\leq σ(d(x,z)+d(z,y)) for some constant σ1σ\geq 1, rather than the usual triangle inequality. Such a space is called a quasimetric space. We show that many well-kn…

2008-07-22abs ↗pdf ↗

We review the nature of some well-known phenomena such as volatility smiles, convexity adjustments and parallel derivative markets. We propose that the market is incomplete and postulate the existence of intrinsic risks in every contingent claim as a basis for understanding these phenomena. In a continuous time framewo…

2014-03-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Improved manifold-adaptive dimension estimator for better data complexity assessment.

problem Estimating intrinsic dimensionality of complex data.
method Revised and improved Farahmand-Szepesvári-Audibert (FSA) estimator, incorporating probability density function and median.
result Median-FSA estimator outperforms existing methods in accuracy and robustness.

The intrinsic entropy model accurately estimates stock market volatility.

problem Accurately estimating historical volatility of stock market indices.
method Incorporates traded volumes alongside OHLC prices in daily data.
result Intrinsic entropy model delivers reliable estimates with lower coefficient of variation.

This paper introduces a new method to compare collections of distributions on manifolds and graphs.

problem Comparing collections of probability distributions over diverse domains.
method Intrinsic slicing construction for Wasserstein distances, Hilbert embedding, resampling, p-value combination.
result Powerful and well-calibrated p-values for comparing distributions on manifolds and graphs.

Many practical environments contain catastrophic states that an optimal agent would visit infrequently or never. Even on toy problems, Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) agents tend to periodically revisit these states upon forgetting their existence under a new policy. We introduce intrinsic fear (IF), a learned reward…

2016-11-03abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper analyzes the intrinsic exploration terms in policy-gradient algorithms.

problem Exploration in policy-gradient algorithms and its impact on policy optimization.
method Numerical optimization criteria and stochastic gradient analysis.
result Exploration techniques improve policy optimization by smoothing the learning objective and modifying gradient estimates.

We consider reconstruction of a manifold, or, invariant manifold learning, where a smooth Riemannian manifold MM is determined from intrinsic distances (that is, geodesic distances) of points in a discrete subset of MM. In the studied problem the Riemannian manifold (M,g)(M,g) is considered as an abstract metric space w…

2019-05-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Sharp bounds for high-probability estimation of discrete distributions.

problem Estimating discrete distributions with high probability under χ2χ^2-divergence.
method Sharp upper and lower bounds for the classical Laplace estimator, and characterization of minimax high-probability risk for any estimator.
result Sharp bounds for high-probability estimation of discrete distributions can be achieved through a simple smoothing strategy.

If M is a smooth compact connected Riemannian manifold, let P(M) denote the Wasserstein space of probability measures on M. We describe a geometric construction of parallel transport of some tangent cones along geodesics in P(M). We show that when everything is smooth, the geometric parallel transport agrees with earli…

2017-01-09abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper proposes a least squares method for binary compressive sampling with low intrinsic dimension signals.

problem Recovering signals from binary measurements with noise and sign flips.
method Least squares decoder for signals with low generative intrinsic dimension.
result The least squares decoder achieves a sharp estimation error of O(klog(Ln)m)O(\sqrt{\frac{k\log (Ln)}{m}}) under certain conditions.

Study shows one-dimensional location-scale-shape models are flat in Wasserstein geometry.

problem Investigating curvature in location-scale-shape models under Wasserstein metric.
method Introduced location-scale-shape model and investigated its geometry.
result Location-scale-shape model is intrinsically flat but extrinsically curved in Wasserstein geometry.

Shallow nonlinear networks can separate classes linearly with polynomially scaling width.

problem Understanding the linear separability of deep networks' features.
method Modeling inputs as a union of low-dimensional subspaces and using random weights and quadratic activations.
result Shallow nonlinear networks can achieve linear separation with polynomially scaling width.

Deep networks can approximate high-dimensional distributions from low-dimensional ones.

problem Approximating high-dimensional distributions from low-dimensional ones.
method Proved neural networks can transform low-dimensional distributions to high-dimensional ones with arbitrary closeness measured by Wasserstein distances and maximum mean discrepancy.
result Upper bounds of the approximation error are obtained in terms of the width and depth of neural network.

A novel approach to computing barycenters on graph-supported probability measures.

problem Computing weighted averages of measures on graphs.
method Dynamic optimal transport formulation on the simplex, gradient descent on the probability simplex.
result Intrinsic gradient descent provides a coherent framework for synthesizing and analyzing measures on graphs.

We derive high-probability finite-sample uniform rates of consistency for kk-NN regression that are optimal up to logarithmic factors under mild assumptions. We moreover show that kk-NN regression adapts to an unknown lower intrinsic dimension automatically. We then apply the kk-NN regression rates to establish new …

2017-07-19abs ↗pdf ↗

We characterise the link of derivatives in measure, which are introduced in [AKR,Card,ORS] respectively by different means, for functions on the space M\mathbb M of finite measures over a Riemannian manifold MM. For a reasonable class of functions ff, the extrinsic derivative DEfD^Ef coincides with the linear functio…

2019-08-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified high-probability regret bounds for online convex optimisation with randomised gradient estimators.

problem Online convex optimisation with randomised gradient estimators for q\ell_q-Lipschitz losses.
method FTRL with randomised two-point finite-difference gradient estimators based on cone-measure sampling from r\ell_r-spheres.
result Unified high-probability regret bounds for all p,q,r[1,]p,q,r \in [1,\infty].

This study analyzes how well GANs approximate distributions from small samples.

problem Understanding how well GANs approximate distributions from limited data.
method Analysis of GANs using integral probability metrics and Hölder classes.
result GANs can adaptively learn low-dimensional structures or Hölder densities.

Solves Monge-Ampère equations on compact Hessian manifolds using the Perron method.

problem Solving Monge-Ampère equations on compact Hessian manifolds.
method Perron method, compactness properties of normalized quasi-convex functions, local and global comparison principles for twisted Monge-Ampère operators.
result Solves Monge-Ampère equations involving arbitrary probability measures.

Paper improves deep learning convergence rates for low-dimensional data.

problem Sub-optimal rates in deep learning due to unrealistic assumptions on intrinsic dimension.
method Introduced an entropic notion of intrinsic dimension for exponential families and demonstrated improved convergence rates.
result Test error scales as O~(n2β2β+dˉ2β(λ))\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(n^{-\frac{2β}{2β+ \bar{d}_{2β}(λ)}}\right), improving on best-known rates.

Unified framework for singular statistical models using observable charts.

problem Non-identifiability and breakdown of classical asymptotic theory in singular models.
method Invariant framework based on observable charts to define local coordinate systems in model space.
result Observable order provides a lower bound on KL divergence vanishing rate in singular models.

In this paper, we develop and explore deep anomaly detection techniques based on the capsule network (CapsNet) for image data. Being able to encoding intrinsic spatial relationship between parts and a whole, CapsNet has been applied as both a classifier and deep autoencoder. This inspires us to design a prediction-prob…

2019-07-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Neural networks provide a rich class of high-dimensional, non-convex optimization problems. Despite their non-convexity, gradient-descent methods often successfully optimize these models. This has motivated a recent spur in research attempting to characterize properties of their loss surface that may explain such succe…

2018-02-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Geometrically, high-likelihood regions in DGMs are unlikely to generate OOD data.

problem The paradox of high-likelihood OOD detection in deep generative models.
method Local intrinsic dimension estimation to identify high-likelihood regions that do not generate OOD data.
result A method pairing likelihoods and LID estimates for reliable OOD detection.

Introduces intrinsic Hopf-Lax semigroup linking to intrinsic slope.

problem Understanding intrinsic Hopf-Lax semigroup and its relation to intrinsic slope.
method Introduces and proves the link between intrinsic Hopf-Lax semigroup and intrinsic slope.
result Intrinsic Hopf-Lax semigroup is a subsolution of Hamilton-Jacobi type equality.

A new method estimates Schrödinger bridges without iterative simulations or neural networks.

problem Estimating the time-dependent drift between two probability distributions.
method Solving the static entropic optimal transport problem and modifying the potentials.
result The Sinkhorn bridge method provably estimates Schrödinger bridges with a rate of convergence dependent on the target measure's intrinsic dimensionality.

We propose a method to assess the intrinsic risk carried by a financial position XX when the agent faces uncertainty about the pricing rule assigning its present value. Our approach is inspired by a new interpretation of the quasiconvex duality in a Knightian setting, where a family of probability measures replaces th…

2017-03-03abs ↗pdf ↗

GANs learn distributions well from samples, with rates depending on intrinsic dimension.

problem Learning distributions from samples using GANs.
method Oracle inequality, Hölder functions approximation, neural network approximation, integral probability metrics.
result Convergence rates of GANs depend on intrinsic dimension, not ambient dimension.

The paper studies the geometry of probability measures on the unit circle.

problem Understanding the Riemannian geometry of probability measures on the unit circle.
method Developed an intrinsic framework using the Peter-Weyl Theorem to study the differential geometry of Wasserstein spaces of compact Lie groups.
result Explicitly demonstrated that the Wasserstein space of the unit circle is flat with vanishing curvature.

Model predicts default risk based on company's financial forecasts and credit conditions.

problem Estimating the risk of a company defaulting on its financial obligations.
method Developed an equilibrium model linking interest rates to corporate performance and credit supply.
result Estimates idiosyncratic default risk and provides forward-looking probability of default (PD).