A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We present four models for a random graph and show that, in each case, the probability that a graph is intrinsically knotted goes to one as the number of vertices increases. We also argue that, for k≥18, most graphs of order k are intrinsically knotted and, for k≥2n+9, most of order k are not n-apex…
The paper reinterprets Bayesian priors and posteriors using Riemannian manifolds.
problem The dependence of maximum a posteriori estimates on parametrization.
method Assuming a Riemannian manifold with Fisher metric, the paper reinterprets priors and posteriors as distributions over probability distributions, making estimates independent of parametrization.
result A maximum a posteriori estimate independent of parametrization is defined.
Study on predicting sequences with Gaussian constraints, linking to intrinsic volumes and metric complexity.
problem Predicting sequences almost as well as the best Gaussian distribution with mean in a given subset.
method Expressed minimax regret in terms of intrinsic volumes, established comparison inequality for Wills functional, characterized global covering numbers and local Gaussian widths.
result Sharp estimates on the log-Laplace transform of intrinsic volume sequence for a general nonconvex set.
In this article, we study the geodesic problem in a generalized metric space, in which the distance function satisfies a relaxed triangle inequality d(x,y)≤σ(d(x,z)+d(z,y)) for some constant σ≥1, rather than the usual triangle inequality. Such a space is called a quasimetric space. We show that many well-kn…
We review the nature of some well-known phenomena such as volatility smiles, convexity adjustments and parallel derivative markets. We propose that the market is incomplete and postulate the existence of intrinsic risks in every contingent claim as a basis for understanding these phenomena. In a continuous time framewo…
Starting with Gilmer et al. (2018), several works have demonstrated the inevitability of adversarial examples based on different assumptions about the underlying input probability space. It remains unclear, however, whether these results apply to natural image distributions. In this work, we assume the underlying data …
Each compact manifold M of finite dimension k is differentiable and supports an intrinsic probability measure. There then exists a measurable transformation of M to the k-dimensional "surface" of the (k+1)-dimensional ball.
Many practical environments contain catastrophic states that an optimal agent would visit infrequently or never. Even on toy problems, Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) agents tend to periodically revisit these states upon forgetting their existence under a new policy. We introduce intrinsic fear (IF), a learned reward…
We consider reconstruction of a manifold, or, invariant manifold learning, where a smooth Riemannian manifold M is determined from intrinsic distances (that is, geodesic distances) of points in a discrete subset of M. In the studied problem the Riemannian manifold (M,g) is considered as an abstract metric space w…
If M is a smooth compact connected Riemannian manifold, let P(M) denote the Wasserstein space of probability measures on M. We describe a geometric construction of parallel transport of some tangent cones along geodesics in P(M). We show that when everything is smooth, the geometric parallel transport agrees with earli…
Deep networks can approximate high-dimensional distributions from low-dimensional ones.
problem Approximating high-dimensional distributions from low-dimensional ones.
method Proved neural networks can transform low-dimensional distributions to high-dimensional ones with arbitrary closeness measured by Wasserstein distances and maximum mean discrepancy.
result Upper bounds of the approximation error are obtained in terms of the width and depth of neural network.
We derive high-probability finite-sample uniform rates of consistency for k-NN regression that are optimal up to logarithmic factors under mild assumptions. We moreover show that k-NN regression adapts to an unknown lower intrinsic dimension automatically. We then apply the k-NN regression rates to establish new …
We characterise the link of derivatives in measure, which are introduced in [AKR,Card,ORS] respectively by different means, for functions on the space M of finite measures over a Riemannian manifold M. For a reasonable class of functions f, the extrinsic derivative DEf coincides with the linear functio…
Solves Monge-Ampère equations on compact Hessian manifolds using the Perron method.
problem Solving Monge-Ampère equations on compact Hessian manifolds.
method Perron method, compactness properties of normalized quasi-convex functions, local and global comparison principles for twisted Monge-Ampère operators.
result Solves Monge-Ampère equations involving arbitrary probability measures.
In this paper, we develop and explore deep anomaly detection techniques based on the capsule network (CapsNet) for image data. Being able to encoding intrinsic spatial relationship between parts and a whole, CapsNet has been applied as both a classifier and deep autoencoder. This inspires us to design a prediction-prob…
Neural networks provide a rich class of high-dimensional, non-convex optimization problems. Despite their non-convexity, gradient-descent methods often successfully optimize these models. This has motivated a recent spur in research attempting to characterize properties of their loss surface that may explain such succe…
A new method estimates Schrödinger bridges without iterative simulations or neural networks.
problem Estimating the time-dependent drift between two probability distributions.
method Solving the static entropic optimal transport problem and modifying the potentials.
result The Sinkhorn bridge method provably estimates Schrödinger bridges with a rate of convergence dependent on the target measure's intrinsic dimensionality.
We propose a method to assess the intrinsic risk carried by a financial position X when the agent faces uncertainty about the pricing rule assigning its present value. Our approach is inspired by a new interpretation of the quasiconvex duality in a Knightian setting, where a family of probability measures replaces th…
It is essential to incorporate the impact of investor behavior when modeling the dynamics of asset returns. In this paper, we reconcile behavioral finance and rational finance by incorporating investor behavior within the framework of dynamic asset pricing theory. To include the views of investors, we employ the method…
With the widespread success of deep neural networks in science and technology, it is becoming increasingly important to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions produced by deep learning. In this paper, we introduce a new method that attaches an explicit uncertainty statement to the probabilities of classification u…