Intrinsic fear prevents catastrophic states in reinforcement learning.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in reinforcement learning.
method Intrinsic fear (IF) is a learned reward shaping that penalizes the Q-learning objective based on the probability of imminent catastrophe.
result Intrinsic fear models prevent periodic catastrophes in reinforcement learning agents.
Study finds stocks with common firm fears earn lower returns.
problem Identifying and quantifying firm-level investor fears.
method Analysis of equity options to identify common firm-level fears and their impact on stock returns.
result Stocks with exposure to common bad fears earn lower returns and require higher compensation.
The paper integrates behavioral finance into asset pricing using subordinated models.
problem Modeling asset returns considering investor behavior and psychological factors.
method Employing subordination to incorporate investor behavior in dynamic asset pricing theory, introducing a mixed Levy subordinated model.
result Option traders overweight the probability of big losses compared to spot traders, showing diminishing sensitivity.
Investigates VIX's effectiveness as a fear gauge for US and BRIC markets.
problem Determines if VIX remains a reliable indicator of investor fear in US and BRIC markets.
method Analyzed VIX relationships with US and BRIC markets from Jan 2007 to Feb 2018, focusing on pre-, during, and post-2008 financial crisis periods.
result Found frequent structural breaks in VIX and enhanced fear transmission after 2008, with varying impacts on US and BRIC markets.
Paper measures asymmetric fear network connectedness for risk prediction.
problem Predicting macroeconomic conditions and economic uncertainty.
method Forward-looking measures from bank option prices.
result Asymmetric network structure predicts economic conditions.
Fed-FEARE model extracts rules from multiple agencies' data securely.
problem Data privacy and secure rule extraction across multiple agencies.
method Federated F-score based ensemble tree model.
result Model performance measures significantly improved with federated learning.
New algorithms learn and interpret asymmetry-labeled DAGs for COVID-19 fear.
problem Bayesian networks' strict symmetric independence assumption limits their applicability in real-world scenarios.
method Developed novel structural learning algorithms for asymmetry-labeled DAGs.
result Efficient algorithms allow for straightforward interpretation of the underlying dependence structure.
The value of stocks, indices and other assets, are examples of stochastic processes with unpredictable dynamics. In this paper, we discuss asymmetries in short term price movements that can not be associated with a long term positive trend. These empirical asymmetries predict that stock index drops are more common on a…
Study shows COVID-19 increases stock market crash risk in China.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on stock market crash risk in China.
method Estimated conditional skewness using GARCH-S model and constructed fear index from Baidu Index data.
result Conditional skewness reacts negatively to daily growth in total confirmed cases, indicating increased crash risk.
Derives option pricing formulas using Prospect Theory and rational finance.
problem Option pricing with behavioral finance concepts of greed and fear.
method Rational dynamic asset pricing theory, Prospect Theory, Cumulative Prospect Theory.
result New option pricing formulas derived for asset returns following diffusion or binomial trees.
Paper links quantum processes to nonlocal diffusions and introduces a market fear factor.
problem Modeling market volatility and turbulence using quantum effects.
method Established link between quantum stochastic processes and nonlocal diffusions, demonstrated how non-commutative Black-Scholes equation can be written in integral form, applied Monte-Carlo methods to simulate solutions, introduced unitary transformations to classical systems.
result Introduced a market fear factor that increases volatility due to recent market turbulence, not linked to local volatility or additional stochastic variables.
Cryptocurrency markets show higher spreads during extreme fear and greed phases.
problem Understanding and predicting liquidity withdrawal in cryptocurrency markets.
method Analysis of Crypto Fear & Greed Index and Bitcoin daily data.
result Extreme fear and greed regimes exhibit significantly higher spreads than neutral periods.
Using a recently introduced rational expectation model of bubbles, based on the interplay between stochasticity and positive feedbacks of prices on returns and volatility, we develop a new methodology to test how this model classifies 9 time series that have been previously considered as bubbles ending in crashes. The …
Study finds similar price changes across various assets.
problem Understanding changes in different asset prices over time.
method Used traditional and spectral methods to analyze asset prices.
result Discoveries of universal phenomena across asset classes.
Structured products led to severe losses, revealing flaws in investor protection.
problem Flaws in structured investment products causing investor losses.
method Probabilistic analysis using the Law of Total Expectation.
result Investors were likely to experience grave difficulties from the start.
Estimates crypto risk premia using hidden factors and finds significant integration with traditional markets.
problem Estimating risk premia in cryptocurrency returns.
method Giglio-Xiu (2021) three-pass approach, controlling for latent factors and non-tradable state variables.
result Latent factors significantly impact crypto returns, highlighting the importance of controlling for unobserved risks.
Study uses machine learning to analyze Twitter sentiments about COVID-19.
problem Examining public concerns and sentiments about COVID-19 from Twitter.
method Machine learning (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) to identify topics and sentiments.
result Identified 13 topics and categorized into five themes, revealing dominant fears and mixed feelings.
The working mathematician fears complicated words but loves pictures and diagrams. We thus give a no-fancy-anything picture rich glimpse into Khovanov's novel construction of `the categorification of the Jones polynomial'. For the same low cost we also provide some computations, including one that shows that Khovanov's…
The waiting time needed for a stock market index to undergo a given percentage change in its value is found to have an up-down asymmetry, which, surprisingly, is not observed for the individual stocks composing that index. To explain this, we introduce a market model consisting of randomly fluctuating stocks that occas…
Bitcoin volatility can be predicted from price and alternative data.
problem Predicting Bitcoin volatility from market data.
method Modeling Bitcoin volatility using price, volatility momentum, and alternative data like sentiment and engagement.
result Bitcoin volatility can be predicted with a lag of several hours.
AlphaGo Zero is explained as a GAN system with good convergence properties.
problem Explaining the success of AlphaGo Zero in a new light.
method Qualitative analysis of AlphaGo Zero as a GAN system.
result AlphaGo Zero's success may not indicate a new AI generation.
This paper develops a model of reference-dependent assessment of subjective beliefs in which loss-averse people optimally choose the expectation as the reference point to balance the current felicity from the optimistic anticipation and the future disappointment from the realisation. The choice of over-optimism or over…
Study shows death ratio of COVID-19 deaths increases financial volatility.
problem Impact of COVID-19 deaths on financial markets.
method Analysis of VIX index based on daily case reports and death ratios.
result Death ratio positively influences financial volatility.
Training neural networks involves solving large-scale non-convex optimization problems. This task has long been believed to be extremely difficult, with fear of local minima and other obstacles motivating a variety of schemes to improve optimization, such as unsupervised pretraining. However, modern neural networks are…
Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between 1991 and 2008. Pearson-type correlations are computed between the stocks and avera…
Emotions help Q-learning agents find paths faster.
problem Finding optimal paths in unknown environments.
method Used basic emotions (joy, sadness, fear, anger) to influence Q-learning.
result Affective Q-learning agents require fewer steps to find optimal paths.
Study examines fake news as modern myths using AI.
problem Misinformation and propaganda in fake news.
method Machine learning to generate fake articles.
result Details of fake news generation pipeline.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, VIX, is calculated based on prices of out-of-the-money put and call options on the S&P 500 index (SPX). Sometimes called the "investor fear gauge," the VIX is a measure of the implied volatility of the SPX, and is observed to be correlated with the 30-day real…
Introduces intrinsic Hopf-Lax semigroup linking to intrinsic slope.
problem Understanding intrinsic Hopf-Lax semigroup and its relation to intrinsic slope.
method Introduces and proves the link between intrinsic Hopf-Lax semigroup and intrinsic slope.
result Intrinsic Hopf-Lax semigroup is a subsolution of Hamilton-Jacobi type equality.
This paper uses machine learning to improve VIX index calculation and detect market manipulation.
problem Inaccuracies and potential market manipulation in VIX index calculation.
method Replicates VIX index using a subset of SP options and neural networks.
result A small number of SP options can accurately replicate the VIX index.
Crypto simulations show HODL strategy loads risk onto most investors, with macro-sentiment affecting returns.
problem Understanding real risk-return trade-offs and factors affecting crypto returns.
method Two independent analyses: 480 million Monte Carlo simulations and Bayesian multi-horizon local projection framework.
result HODL strategy exposes most investors to extreme downside risk, and macro-sentiment conditions are dominant indicators for future outcomes.
In the spirit of behavioral finance, we study the process of opinion formation among investors using a variant of the 2D Voter Model with a tunable social temperature. Further, a feedback acting on the temperature is introduced, such that social temperature reacts to market imbalances and thus becomes time dependent. I…
Survey of intrinsically linked or knotted graphs.
problem Understanding graphs that are inherently knotted or linked.
method Survey of existing results.
result Discussion of known properties of intrinsically linked or knotted graphs.
The paper studies properties of intrinsically Lipschitz constants in metric spaces.
problem Investigating properties of intrinsically Lipschitz constants.
method Introduced Leibniz and product formulas for intrinsic slope.
result Formulated Leibniz and product formulas for intrinsic slope.
The paper integrates behavioral distortions into portfolio optimization using implied probability weighting functions.
problem Behavioral distortions in probability weighting affect portfolio optimization under different return distributions.
method Developed a unified framework to extract probability weighting functions from optimal portfolios modeled under Gaussian and NIG distributions.
result Increasing tail fatness amplifies behavioral distortions, and shifts in risk-free rates alter the curvature of these distortions.
The Interbank Offered Rate is a vital benchmark interest rate in the financial markets of every country to which financial contracts are tied. In the light of the recent LIBOR manipulation incident, this paper seeks to address the fear that Interbank Offered Rate are entirely controlled by the bank. The paper will focu…
We introduce new sufficient conditions for intrinsic knotting and linking. A graph on n vertices with at least 4n-9 edges is intrinsically linked. A graph on n vertices with at least 5n-14 edges is intrinsically knotted. We also classify graphs that are 0, 1, or 2 edges short of being complete partite graphs with respe…
Directed graphs in tournaments can link or knot in various ways.
problem Understanding intrinsic linking and knotting in directed graphs, specifically tournaments.
method Analyzing the minimum number of vertices required for intrinsic linking or knotting properties in tournaments.
result Bounds on the minimum number of vertices required for various intrinsic linking or knotting properties in tournaments.
New graph shows edge deletion/contraction doesn't always result in intrinsically linked graphs.
problem Edge operations in intrinsically knotted graphs don't always produce intrinsically linked graphs.
method Presented a new intrinsically knotted graph.
result Edge operations in intrinsically knotted graphs don't always result in intrinsically linked graphs.
New method estimates intrinsic dimensionality using angles, not distances.
problem Estimating local intrinsic dimensionality accurately.
method Introduces a new estimator using the distribution of angles between neighbor points.
result New estimator behaves similarly but complementarily to existing measures of intrinsic dimensionality.
We classify graphs that are 0, 1, or 2 edges short of being complete partite graphs with respect to intrinsic linking and intrinsic knotting. In addition, we classify intrinsic knotting of graphs on 8 vertices. For graphs in these families, we verify a conjecture presented in Adams' "The Knot Book": If a vertex is remo…
Compound examines decentralized lending users and their short loan durations.
problem Systemic risk in decentralized finance due to concentration and interconnection.
method Analysis of on-chain transaction data and smart contract programming.
result Many users borrow for yield farming, not for traditional lending.
We show that deleting an edge of a 3-cycle in an intrinsically knotted graph gives an intrinsically linked graph.
Investigates intrinsic Lipschitz sections in nonlinear quotient maps.
problem Analyzing intrinsic Lipschitz sections in non-linear quotient maps.
method Introduced Leibniz formula for intrinsic slope under weaker conditions, used properties of intrinsic dilations in Carnot groups, and provided conditions for sum of sections.
result Found conditions for sum of intrinsically Lipschitz sections in Carnot groups of step 2.
We prove that a graph is intrinsically linked in an arbitrary 3-manifold M if and only if it is intrinsically linked in S^3. Also, assuming the Poincare Conjecture, we prove that a graph is intrinsically knotted in M if and only if it is intrinsically knotted in S^3.
Criterion for flat circle bundles using intrinsically harmonic forms.
problem Characterizing flat circle bundles.
method Criterion based on intrinsic harmonicity of a specific form.
result Flatness of a principal circle bundle is equivalent to intrinsic harmonicity of a certain form.
Recalls intrinsically harmonic forms and open problems.
problem Open problems related to intrinsically harmonic forms.
method Recalling definitions and known results.
result Clarification of intrinsically harmonic forms and open questions.
StarGAN model generates and recognizes emotions from facial expressions.
problem Emotion recognition and generation from facial expressions.
method Used StarGAN model to train on a new emotion dataset of 4K videos.
result Trained StarGAN model can generate and recognize emotions based on valence arousal scores.