A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
In recent years, probabilistic forecasting is an emerging topic, which is why there is a growing need of suitable methods for the evaluation of multivariate predictions. We analyze the sensitivity of the most common scoring rules, especially regarding quality of the forecasted dependency structures. Additionally, we pr…
Measuring dependence between two random variables is very important, and critical in many applied areas such as variable selection, brain network analysis. However, we do not know what kind of functional relationship is between two covariates, which requires the dependence measure to be equitable. That is, it gives sim…
We propose a theoretical framework for thinking about score normalization, which confirms that normalization is not needed under (admittedly fragile) ideal conditions. If, however, these conditions are not met, e.g. under data-set shift between training and runtime, our theory reveals dependencies between scores that c…
In learning with noisy labels, for every instance, its label can randomly walk to other classes following a transition distribution which is named a noise model. Well-studied noise models are all instance-independent, namely, the transition depends only on the original label but not the instance itself, and thus they a…
Random features provide a practical framework for large-scale kernel approximation and supervised learning. It has been shown that data-dependent sampling of random features using leverage scores can significantly reduce the number of features required to achieve optimal learning bounds. Leverage scores introduce an op…
This work extends diffusion models to handle heavy-tailed targets, improving score estimation and sampling guarantees.
problem Score estimation and sampling guarantees for heavy-tailed targets in diffusion models.
method Kernel density estimation and minimax rates analysis for score estimation and sampling guarantees.
result Sharp minimax rates for score estimation and sampling guarantees for heavy-tailed targets, revealing qualitative differences between exponential and polynomial tails.
Traditional approaches to ranking in web search follow the paradigm of rank-by-score: a learned function gives each query-URL combination an absolute score and URLs are ranked according to this score. This paradigm ensures that if the score of one URL is better than another then one will always be ranked higher than th…
Modeling complex systems with multi-resolution data and causal dependencies.
problem Accurate prediction of complex systems with varying causal dependencies and multi-resolution data.
method Score-based Variational Graphical Diffusion Model (Temporal-SVGDM) that constructs individual SDEs for each variable at its native resolution and couples them through a causal score mechanism.
result Improved prediction accuracy and causal understanding compared to existing methods, especially in temporal scenarios.
Binary classification rules based on covariates typically depend on simple loss functions such as zero-one misclassification. Some cases may require more complex loss functions. For example, individual-level monitoring of HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) requires periodic assessment of treatment…
In this work, we addressed the issue of combining linear classifiers using their score functions. The value of the scoring function depends on the distance from the decision boundary. Two score functions have been tested and four different combination strategies were investigated. During the experimental study, the pro…
In statistical analysis, measuring a score of predictive performance is an important task. In many scientific fields, appropriate scores were tailored to tackle the problems at hand. A proper score is a popular tool to obtain statistically consistent forecasts. Furthermore, a mathematical characterization of the proper…
Improved sampling from high-dimensional Gaussians using smoothed scores.
problem Sampling from high-dimensional Gaussian distributions with gradient information.
method Using smoothed scores, which are gradients of the logarithms of Gaussian-convolved densities, to overcome approximation barriers.
result Improved sampling efficiency with a complexity of \(O\left(\left(\logκ+\log(e\sqrt d/δ_{
m TV})
ight)\log(e\sqrt d/δ_{
m TV})
ight)\) smoothed-score queries.