Review of methods enabling causal predictions under hypothetical interventions.
problem Need for predicting outcomes under hypothetical interventions in decision making.
method Systematic review of methods using causal inference for prediction models.
result Identified 13 methods for causal inference from observational data.
CPP improves predictive model outputs for better intervention decisions.
problem Predictive models often misguide resource allocation.
method Causal post-processing techniques using limited experimental data.
result CPP can improve intervention decisions, especially with imperfect causal signals.
Game theory approach to predicting and responding to interventions based on causal relationships.
problem Optimizing predictions and interventions in response to observational data.
method Prediction-intervention game framework, focusing on invariant subsets of covariates.
result Stable-blanket predictors are optimal for certain follower objectives and under specific conditions.
This work shifts focus from prediction to intervention in social systems.
problem The limitations of focusing solely on prediction in automated decision systems.
method Shift from prediction-focused paradigm to intervention-oriented approach.
result A new perspective unifies statistical frameworks and tools for ADS design, implementation, and evaluation.
We develop a model to predict effects of sequential interventions, clarifying their combined impact.
problem Uncertainty in generalizing behavioral predictions for combinations of interventions.
method Explicit model for composition of interventions, identifying their combined effect.
result Our compositional model aids prediction in sparse data conditions.
Extended LPCMCI learns causal models from interventional data to minimize prediction error.
problem Optimizing prediction of target variables using causal models.
method Combining observational and interventional causal discovery methods.
result Extended LPCMCI allows 60.9% optimal prediction of target variables compared to 53.6% with original LPCMCI.
Proposes DRIG for robust predictions using noise interventions.
problem Developing robust prediction models against distribution shifts.
method Distributional Robustness via Invariant Gradients (DRIG) exploiting general noise interventions.
result DRIG yields robust predictions among a data-dependent class of distribution shifts.
Paper tackles intervention extrapolation using identifiable representations.
problem Predicting effects of unseen interventions on outcomes.
method Combines identifiable representation learning with autoencoders to enforce linear invariance.
result Identifiable representations enable non-linear extrapolation of interventions.
Proposes a method to create robust linear models with noisy proxies of unobserved variables.
problem Learning robust linear models to handle interventions on unobserved variables with noisy proxies.
method Regularization term that balances in-distribution performance and robustness to interventions.
result Single proxy can create prediction optimal estimators under interventions of bounded strength.
Evaluation metrics for prediction models don't fully reflect intervention impact.
problem Standard metrics don't accurately reflect reduction in patient outcomes from model use.
method Synthesized and discussed various evaluation methods, analyzed with simulated and real data.
result Evaluations without interventional data are limited or require strong assumptions.
Robustly detects and attributes climate change impacts under interventions.
problem Detect and attribute climate change impacts from observations robustly.
method Supervised learning with anchor regression for robust predictions under interventions.
result CO2 forcing can be robustly predicted from temperature patterns under strong solar forcing interventions.
POSCMs extend SCMs for causal modeling with latent contexts.
problem Causal modeling with latent contexts and endogenous mechanisms.
method Kolmogorov-Arnold-Sprecher edge-functional decomposition for explicit parametrization.
result Identifiability of structure and mechanisms under latent context.
New method for selective prediction under interventions learns causal structure from data.
problem Tight uncertainty sets in selective conformal prediction under unknown interventional settings.
method Partial causal structure learning for descendant indicators, contamination-robust coverage theorem, algorithms for descendant discovery and distance estimation.
result Valid selective conformal prediction under contamination up to 30% with controlled coverage.
Generative Intervention Models predict perturbation effects without knowing the underlying mechanisms.
problem Predicting perturbation effects when the mechanisms are unknown.
method Generative Intervention Models (GIM) that map perturbation features to distributions over atomic interventions in a causal model.
result GIMs achieve robust out-of-distribution predictions and infer underlying perturbation mechanisms.
New method predicts unobserved interactions between sets of elements.
problem Limited access to interactions between sets of elements.
method Generalized Synthetic Interventions (GSI) estimator.
result GSI estimator outperforms existing methods on synthetic and real data.
A new framework for optimizing interventions with limited data.
problem Small data, default intervention data, unmodeled objectives, unforeseen consequences.
method Bandit data-driven optimization combining online bandit learning and offline predictive analytics.
result PROOF algorithm achieves no-regret and superior performance in simulations and real-world application.
A-ICP selects experiments to learn causal effects efficiently.
problem Learning causal effects from observational data is difficult.
method Active learning framework based on Invariant Causal Prediction.
result Proposes intervention selection policies to reveal direct causes.
PULSE estimator improves prediction in causal inference with bounded interventions.
problem Optimizing causal models for bounded interventions.
method Relates K-class estimators to anchor regression, introduces PULSE estimator for minimization of mean squared prediction error with bounded constraints.
result PULSE estimator outperforms other estimators in real data and simulation experiments, especially in weak instrument settings.
New approach to meaningful and robust algorithmic recourse.
problem Ineffective and unmeaningful algorithmic recourse explanations.
method Meaningful Algorithmic Recourse (MAR) and Effective Algorithmic Recourse (EAR).
result Proposes new constraints for algorithmic recourse that improve both prediction and target.
Autoregressive flow models can perform causal discovery and inference tasks.
problem Causal inference tasks such as causal discovery and interventional predictions.
method Using autoregressive flow models to estimate causal directions and make predictions.
result Autoregressive flows can accurately perform causal inference tasks without restrictive assumptions.
Paper shows identifiability of causal models with unobserved variables.
problem Identify latent variables in causal models with unobserved variables.
method Developed an autoencoding variational Bayes algorithm.
result Identifiability achieved with generalized faithfulness assumptions.
Framework achieves fairness in predictions using partially known causal graph over clusters of variables.
problem Achieving fairness in algorithmic decisions when causal graph knowledge is limited.
method Leverages a causal graph over clusters of variables to train a prediction model, reducing interventional distribution discrepancies.
result Framework strikes a better balance between fairness and accuracy than existing approaches under limited causal graph knowledge.
New monitoring method detects ML risk models' performance changes in medical interventions.
problem Monitoring ML risk models in healthcare is complicated by confounding medical interventions.
method Developed a new score-based CUSUM monitoring procedure with dynamic control limits.
result Valid inference is possible if conditional exchangeability or time-constant selection bias hold.
Personalized interventions in social services, education, and healthcare leverage individual-level causal effect predictions in order to give the best treatment to each individual or to prioritize program interventions for the individuals most likely to benefit. While the sensitivity of these domains compels us to eval…
Causal Bayesian networks interpret actions as interventions to connect models to real-world outcomes.
problem Connecting causal model predictions to real-world outcomes.
method Formal framework to interpret actions as interventions and prove impossibility results.
result No non-circular interpretation exists that satisfies natural desiderata without violating some.
Unified Bayesian model explains in-context learning and activation steering in LLMs.
problem Understanding and controlling the behavior of large language models (LLMs) through prompts and activations.
method Developed a Bayesian model to explain and predict the effects of in-context learning and activation steering.
result Unified model predicts distinct phases and sudden shifts in LLM behavior, explaining prior empirical phenomena.
Proposes a model to estimate treatment effects in complex multiagent systems over time.
problem Challenges in evaluating interventions in multiagent systems, especially with time-varying relationships and covariates.
method Interpretable counterfactual recurrent network leveraging graph variational recurrent neural networks and domain knowledge.
result Achieved lower estimation errors and more effective treatment timing than baselines in simulated and real-world scenarios.
MetaCaDI learns causal graphs and unknown interventions from few data instances.
problem Discovering causal mechanisms in systems with high data costs and unknown interventions.
method MetaCaDI is a Bayesian meta-learning framework that optimizes for rapid adaptation to new intervention targets.
result MetaCaDI significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in causal graph recovery and intervention target prediction.
ISAAC audits deep models for drug-target interactions, revealing structural differences.
problem Deep models for DTI often use irrelevant features, making them hard to evaluate.
method ISAAC uses intervention-based structural auditing to evaluate model sensitivity.
result ISAAC reveals significant structural differences in DTI models' reasoning.
Updating predictive models introduces bias, leading to miscalibration.
problem Bias introduced when updating predictive models after interventions.
method Proposed a causal framework and partially observed Markov decision process.
result Successive predictive scores may converge to undesirable outcomes.
The interpretability of prediction mechanisms with respect to the underlying prediction problem is often unclear. While several studies have focused on developing prediction models with meaningful parameters, the causal relationships between the predictors and the actual prediction have not been considered. Here, we co…
DoFlow models time series data for causal forecasting and anomaly detection.
problem Forecasting and causal reasoning in multivariate time series.
method Flow-based generative model over causal DAGs.
result Accurate interventional and counterfactual forecasting, anomaly detection.
Causal autoregressive flows enable accurate causal inference and prediction.
problem Causal discovery and interventional predictions in machine learning.
method Autoregressive normalizing flows with fixed variable orderings.
result Causal models derived from autoregressive flows are identifiable and allow for accurate interventional and counterfactual predictions.
An important goal common to domain adaptation and causal inference is to make accurate predictions when the distributions for the source (or training) domain(s) and target (or test) domain(s) differ. In many cases, these different distributions can be modeled as different contexts of a single underlying system, in whic…
Paper improves feature selection for predicting outcomes from observational data.
problem Feature selection for post-intervention outcome prediction from pre-intervention variables in healthcare settings.
method Extends Markov boundary concept to treatment-outcome pairs, uses observational and experimental data.
result Combining observational and experimental data improves feature selection and effect estimation.
Clinical forecasting based on electronic medical records (EMR) can uncover the temporal correlations between patients' conditions and outcomes from sequences of longitudinal clinical measurements. In this work, we propose an intervention-augmented deep state space generative model to capture the interactions among clin…
Holdout set improves risk score accuracy without biasing predictions.
problem Updating risk scores can lead to biased estimates when directly applied.
method Use a holdout set of non-intervention population to update risk scores.
result Optimal holdout size reduces adverse outcomes to optimal level.
Paper proposes a new multi-task causal Gaussian process model for better prediction and uncertainty estimation.
problem Learning causal effects of interventions on different subsets of variables in a DAG.
method DAG-GP model that allows information sharing across interventions and experiments on different variables.
result DAG-GP achieves the best fitting performance and faster optimal intervention selection compared to single-task models.
Causal models bring many benefits to decision-making systems (or agents) by making them interpretable, sample-efficient, and robust to changes in the input distribution. However, spurious correlations can lead to wrong causal models and predictions. We consider the problem of inferring a causal model of a reinforcement…
VACA models graph data for causal inference without hidden confounders.
problem Causal inference in observational data with hidden confounders.
method Variational graph autoencoders for structural causal models.
result Accurately approximates interventional and counterfactual distributions.
BFTS uses Bayesian Additive Regression Trees for improved personalized mobile health interventions.
problem Adapting to complex, non-linear user behaviors in personalized mobile health interventions.
method Bayesian Forest Thompson Sampling (BFTS) integrates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into the exploration loop of contextual bandits.
result BFTS achieves state-of-the-art regret on tabular benchmarks and improves engagement rates by over 30% in a behavioral intervention study.
Meta-learning model predicts intervention effects from uncertain causal graphs.
problem Estimating intervention effects when causal structures are uncertain.
method Model-Averaged Causal Estimation Transformer Neural Process (MACE-TNP) using meta-learning.
result MACE-TNP outperforms Bayesian baselines in predicting intervention distributions.
Most approaches in algorithmic fairness constrain machine learning methods so the resulting predictions satisfy one of several intuitive notions of fairness. While this may help private companies comply with non-discrimination laws or avoid negative publicity, we believe it is often too little, too late. By the time th…
Proposes Causal Loss to improve machine learning models' causal inference.
problem Machine learning algorithms often fail to capture causal relationships when data is inconsistent.
method Introduces Causal Loss, a model-agnostic loss function that enhances interventional capabilities.
result Causal Loss improves non-causal associative models to have interventional capabilities.
Model-agnostic interpretation techniques allow us to explain the behavior of any predictive model. Due to different notations and terminology, it is difficult to see how they are related. A unified view on these methods has been missing. We present the generalized SIPA (sampling, intervention, prediction, aggregation) …
Method makes non-interpretable models more intervenable.
problem Making non-interpretable models more understandable and controllable.
method Intervenability formalization and fine-tuning of black-box models.
result Fine-tuned black-box models are more intervenable and often better-calibrated.
TCFimt forecasts causal effects of multiple interventions from individual data.
problem Estimating causal effects of temporal multi-interventions from individual data.
method TCFimt uses adversarial tasks in seq2seq framework to alleviate bias and contrastive learning to decouple effects.
result TCFimt outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting future outcomes and choosing optimal treatments.
High-capacity neural network ensembles often benefit more from high-capacity models than from increased diversity.
problem The performance of high-capacity neural network ensembles is often harmed by interventions that promote predictive diversity.
method A large-scale study of nearly 600 neural network classification ensembles, examining various interventions and architectures.
result Discouraging predictive diversity can be benign in large-network ensembles, and higher-capacity models often yield better performance than diverse architectures.