A new framework for mining high utility patterns in interval-based sequences.
problem Mining patterns in events that persist over varying time intervals and considering event utility.
method Integrates utility into interval-based sequences and proposes HUIPMiner algorithm with pruning strategy.
result HUIPMiner efficiently finds high utility patterns in real datasets.
FIBS extracts relevant features from IBTSs for classification.
problem Classifying interval-based temporal sequences (IBTSs) using common algorithms is challenging.
method FIBS extracts features from IBTSs based on relative frequency and temporal relations, incorporating a filter-based selection strategy to avoid irrelevant features.
result FIBS effectively represents IBTSs for classification algorithms, providing similar or better accuracy compared to state-of-the-art competitors.
Confidence intervals based on penalized maximum likelihood estimators such as the LASSO, adaptive LASSO, and hard-thresholding are analyzed. In the known-variance case, the finite-sample coverage properties of such intervals are determined and it is shown that symmetric intervals are the shortest. The length of the sho…
Paper presents robust confidence sequences for means with known moment bounds and arbitrary corruption.
problem Tackles robustness to outliers and adversarial corruptions in mean estimation.
method Designs new robust exponential supermartingales to create confidence sequences.
result Achieves optimal width and shows smaller margin of error compared to fixed-time robust methods.
New method uses interval-based metric to validate prediction uncertainty in machine learning.
problem Validation of prediction uncertainty in machine learning regression tasks is unreliable due to heavy-tailed distributions.
method Shift from variance-based metrics to interval-based Prediction Interval Coverage Probability (PICP).
result PICP method more quickly and reliably tests prediction intervals than variance-based metrics.
We study confidence intervals based on hard-thresholding, soft-thresholding, and adaptive soft-thresholding in a linear regression model where the number of regressors k may depend on and diverge with sample size n. In addition to the case of known error variance, we define and study versions of the estimators when…
This paper introduces time-uniform CLT-based confidence intervals for statistical inference.
problem Developing valid statistical inference methods for sequential data.
method Time-uniform central limit theory and strong invariance principles.
result Asymptotic confidence sequences (CSs) that are uniformly valid over time.
The problem of machine learning with missing values is common in many areas. A simple approach is to first construct a dataset without missing values simply by discarding instances with missing entries or by imputing a fixed value for each missing entry, and then train a prediction model with the new dataset. A drawbac…
Study improves predictive performance testing for high-dimensional data using exhaustive nested cross-validation.
problem Reproducibility issues in K-fold cross-validation for high-dimensional data. method Proposes a novel predictive performance test based on exhaustive nested cross-validation, addressing computational complexity with a closed-form expression.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of Ridge-based methods in high-dimensional predictive performance testing.
We present differentially private algorithms for the stochastic Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) problem. This is a problem for applications such as adaptive clinical trials, experiment design, and user-targeted advertising where private information is connected to individual rewards. Our major contribution is to show that the…
This paper addresses a gap in the classifcation of Codazzi tensors with exactly two eigenfunctions on a Riemannian manifold of dimension three or higher. Derdzinski proved that if the trace of such a tensor is constant and the dimension of one of the the eigenspaces is n−1, then the metric is a warped product where t…
This paper completes a fundamental construction in Alexandrov geometry. Previously we gave a new construction of metric spaces with curvature bounds either above or below, namely warped products with intrinsic metric space base and fiber, and with possibly vanishing warping functions -- thereby extending the classical …
Study bounds variance modulation function for K-spider distributions.
problem Bounding variance modulation function for K-spider distributions.
method Used folded moments and total probabilities of spider legs.
result Gave an interval for the variance modulation function.
Estimators computed from adaptively collected data do not behave like their non-adaptive brethren. Rather, the sequential dependence of the collection policy can lead to severe distributional biases that persist even in the infinite data limit. We develop a general method -- W-decorrelation -- for transformi…
In this study, we introduce a new approach to combine multi-classifiers in an ensemble system. Instead of using numeric membership values encountered in fixed combining rules, we construct interval membership values associated with each class prediction at the level of meta-data of observation by using concepts of info…
This paper develops a new method to model treatment effects that are heterogeneous across different quantiles.
problem Modeling treatment effects that vary across different quantiles of the outcome distribution.
method The paper combines quantile classification with local polynomial estimation to build a decision tree and forest.
result The proposed QLPRT and QLPRF methods provide a new way to estimate and infer heterogeneous treatment effects.
Conformal Prediction is a framework that produces prediction intervals based on the output from a machine learning algorithm. In this paper we explore the case when training data is made up of multiple parts available in different sources that cannot be pooled. We here consider the regression case and propose a method …
Many estimators of the average effect of a treatment on an outcome require estimation of the propensity score, the outcome regression, or both. It is often beneficial to utilize flexible techniques such as semiparametric regression or machine learning to estimate these quantities. However, optimal estimation of these r…
The purpose of this paper is to construct confidence intervals for the regression coefficients in the Fine-Gray model for competing risks data with random censoring, where the number of covariates can be larger than the sample size. Despite strong motivation from biomedical applications, a high-dimensional Fine-Gray mo…
This study revisits UQ validation methods based on consistency and adaptivity concepts.
problem Lack of comprehensive validation methods for UQ metrics across input feature ranges.
method Revisit and extend common validation methods for UQ metrics based on consistency and adaptivity concepts.
result Improved understanding and capabilities of UQ metrics validation methods.
Hierarchical framework for model evaluation on leaderboards
problem Uncertainty and variability in model performance across tasks
method Hierarchical framework with task-level and leaderboard-level rank prediction intervals
result Statistically valid and informative model rank intervals
Complex activity recognition is challenging due to the inherent uncertainty and diversity of performing a complex activity. Normally, each instance of a complex activity has its own configuration of atomic actions and their temporal dependencies. We propose in this paper an atomic action-based Bayesian model that const…
New method predicts sets under unknown covariate shift with high confidence.
problem Adapting to unknown covariate shift in prediction sets.
method PredSet-1Step, a flexible distribution-free method.
result Achieves asymptotic probably approximately correct coverage.
Analysis of cross-validation for early-stopped gradient descent in high-dimensional regression.
problem Inconsistency of GCV for early-stopped GD in high-dimensional least squares regression.
method Theoretical analysis of GCV and LOOCV applied to early-stopped GD in high-dimensional least squares regression.
result LOOCV converges uniformly to the prediction risk of early-stopped GD, while GCV is generically inconsistent.
Guaranteed bounds for posterior inference in probabilistic programs.
problem Approximating the posterior distribution of probabilistic programs with provable correctness.
method Interval-based trace semantics, soundness and completeness proofs, weight-aware interval type system.
result Guaranteed bounds on the posterior distribution of probabilistic programs are computed and proven to be correct.
Functional data analysis is a statistical framework where data are assumed to follow some functional form. This method of analysis is commonly applied to time series data, where time, measured continuously or in discrete intervals, serves as the location for a function's value. Gaussian processes are a generalization o…
Proposes online debiasing estimators for adaptive linear regression.
problem Adaptive data collection leads to non-normal asymptotic behavior in simple methods.
method Online debiasing estimators that correct distributional anomalies.
result Asymptotic normality and minimax lower bound for proposed estimators.
Improved DNN estimator with scalable subsampling for efficient inference.
problem Efficient inference for deep neural networks (DNNs).
method Non-random subsampling technique (scalable subsampling) applied to DNNs.
result Subagged DNN estimator offers computational efficiency and accurate point estimation/prediction intervals.
Bounds on Gaussian approximation for neural networks with novel smoothing techniques.
problem Approximating the distribution of wide random neural networks.
method Stein's method, Gaussian smoothing, Laplacian operators, Cameron-Martin space.
result First bounds on Gaussian approximation of wide random neural networks.
CADR estimator improves inference for contextual bandit data.
problem Valid inference on contextual bandit data.
method CADR estimator for policy value, addressing adaptive data collection challenges.
result CADR provides correct coverage of confidence intervals.
The statistical properties of the bid-ask spread of a frequently traded Chinese stock listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are investigated using the limit-order book data. Three different definitions of spread are considered based on the time right before transactions, the time whenever the highest buying price or th…
This paper studies the geometry of minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial parameters.
problem Determining if minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial outcomes are disjoint.
method Enumerating and covering the continuous regions of the exact p-value function to study the geometry of minimum-volume confidence sets.
result The geometry of minimum-volume confidence sets for multinomial parameters is studied, providing insights into their structure and properties.
CTI produces efficient prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage.
problem Efficient and reliable uncertainty quantification in regression.
method CTI estimates conditional density for interval length, then thresholds intervals based on this density.
result CTI achieves smaller prediction sets with guaranteed coverage compared to existing methods.
EBLR improves time series forecasting with interpretable results.
problem Forecasting future events to reduce uncertainty.
method Iterative method starting with a base model, adding regression trees to explain errors at each iteration.
result EBLR substantially improves base model performance through extracted features and provides comparable performance to other methods.
New method for credible intervals of Covid19 reproduction number.
problem Lack of credibility intervals in existing estimates.
method Combines Langevin Monte Carlo with Proximal operators.
result Produces credible intervals for reproduction number estimates.
Mobile phones can record individual's daily behavioral data as a time-series. In this paper, we present an effective time-series segmentation technique that extracts optimal time segments of individual's similar behavioral characteristics utilizing their mobile phone data. One of the determinants of an individual's beh…
This paper proposes a DGP approach with UCBs for point target tracking over WSNs.
problem Uncertainty quantification in distributed machine learning-based tracking over WSNs.
method Distributed Gaussian process (DGP) approach with upper confidence bounds (UCBs).
result UCBs provide 88% and 42% higher probability of encompassing true target states in X and Y coordinates, respectively.
We provide a pointwise confidence bound for non-linear least-squares with fixed design.
problem Confidence estimation in non-linear ℓ2-regularized least squares. method Pointwise confidence bound for local minimizers, using weighted norm involving inverse-Hessian.
result The proposed confidence bound scales with the test input's similarity to the training data.
r-STSF improves TSC accuracy and interpretability.
problem Lack of interpretability in state-of-the-art TSC methods.
method Randomized-Supervised Time Series Forest (r-STSF) using interval-based approach and ensemble of randomized trees.
result r-STSF achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and enables interpretability.
A novel sequence-to-sequence model predicts missing sensor data.
problem Missing sensor data in sequences.
method Formulated a novel sequence-to-sequence model using forward and backward RNNs.
result The model produces the lowest errors in 12% more cases than the current state-of-the-art.
Classifies intrinsically linked tournaments by their score sequences.
problem Classifying intrinsically linked tournaments using their score sequences.
method Examining the score sequences of tournaments and identifying linkless sequences.
result The vast majority of score sequences for 8-vertex tournaments are linkless.
Develops a new inference method for split-sample estimators using multiple splits.
problem Statistical dependence and variability in split-sample estimators.
method Averaging across multiple splits, proving a central limit theorem, and developing new inference approaches.
result Valid confidence intervals and improved power in comparing model performance.
Enhances sequence memory capacity in neural networks.
problem Limited sequence capacity in Hopfield-like neural networks.
method Introducing a nonlinear interaction term and a generalized pseudoinverse rule.
result Significantly increased sequence capacity with novel scaling laws.
Deep generative models have been successfully used to learn representations for high-dimensional discrete spaces by representing discrete objects as sequences and employing powerful sequence-based deep models. Unfortunately, these sequence-based models often produce invalid sequences: sequences which do not represent a…
SIGTRON improves classification accuracy for imbalanced datasets.
problem Improving classification accuracy for imbalanced datasets.
method SIGTRON is a new sigmoid function with a convex loss function for imbalanced classification.
result SIGTRON models outperform existing methods in balanced and imbalanced datasets.
Equivalent condition found for q-holonomic sequences.
problem Characterizing q-holonomic sequences.
method Elimination property for subsets of variables.
result Proved equivalence of q-holonomicity and elimination property.
The abstract discusses a spectral sequence for Lie algebroids.
problem The abstract tackles the spectral sequence of Lie algebroids.
method The abstract presents a spectral sequence for Lie algebroids, generalizing classical constructions.
result The spectral sequence converges to Lie algebroid cohomology for wide Lie subalgebroids and to formal Lie algebroid cohomology for Lie subalgebroids over proper submanifolds.
Many machine learning tasks can be expressed as the transformation---or \emph{transduction}---of input sequences into output sequences: speech recognition, machine translation, protein secondary structure prediction and text-to-speech to name but a few. One of the key challenges in sequence transduction is learning to …