A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Model predicts internal fraud in retail banking is cyclical and influenced by corruption.
Optimized execution model using interbank and internal liquidity.
Improved speech recognition model with better performance.
Mathematical model predicts international trade and global economy dynamics.
This paper develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyze the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it to estimate the joint degree of market efficiency in the sense of Fama (1970, 1…
Paper predicts international trade flows using machine learning and factorization models.
Spain uses DEA to select international markets for exports.
Study uses AI to predict changes in international public finances based on US markets.
To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. One of the unresolved challeng…
Internal Lagrangians derived from variational principles.
We unveil the geometric nature of the multiplet of fundamental fermions in the Standard Model of fundamental particles as a noncommutative analogue of de Rham forms on the internal finite quantum space.
In today's increasingly international economy, return and volatility spillover effects across international equity markets are major macroeconomic drivers of stock dynamics. Thus, information regarding foreign markets is one of the most important factors in forecasting domestic stock prices. However, the cross-correlat…
The study reveals asymmetries in US financial shocks' international impacts.
Complex behaviors are often driven by an internal model, which integrates sensory information over time and facilitates long-term planning. Inferring an agent's internal model is a crucial ingredient in social interactions (theory of mind), for imitation learning, and for interpreting neural activities of behaving agen…
Improves LSTM performance by initializing states via manifold learning.
In this article, we investigate whether exchange rate risk is priced. We use a multivariate GARCH-in-Mean specification and test alternative conditional international CAPM versions. Our results support strongly the international asset-pricing model that includes exchange rate risk for both developed and emerging stock …
Algorithm improves model performance on shifted concepts without retraining.
Examines international taxation's impact on Georgian businesses.
Generative neural networks improve insurance market risk modeling.
Proposes a Coulomb-like model for international trade flows, fitting real-world data.
In this paper, we model the impact of oil price volatility on Tehranstock and industry indices in two periods of international sanctions and post-sanction. To analyse the purpose of study, we use Feed-forward neural net-works. The period of study is from 2008 to 2018 that is split in two periods during international en…
This study assesses how economic shocks affect the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
For Portugal there are few or none works about the international trade of fruits between Portugal and the other countries. In this work it aims to analyze the more recent data for the Portuguese international trade of fruits. They were used data for the years from 2006 to 2010, available by the INE (Statistics Portugal…
LSTM outperforms traditional models in forecasting international migration.
Method determines latent dimensionality in international trade flows.
Reinforcement learning methods require careful design involving a reward function to obtain the desired action policy for a given task. In the absence of hand-crafted reward functions, prior work on the topic has proposed several methods for reward estimation by using expert state trajectories and action pairs. However…
There are few papers about the international trade of flowers, so it is believed that this paper, with this topic, could be an important contribution to the international scientific community. It is intended to analyze if the international trade flowers tendencies and policies are adapted to the actual world global con…
We propose a unified modelling framework that theoretically justifies the main empirical regularities characterizing the international trade network. Each country is associated to a Polya urn whose composition controls the propensity of the country to trade with other countries. The urn composition is updated through t…
Introduces internal Lagrangians for differential equations and connects them to presymplectic structures.
The utility of learning a dynamics/world model of the environment in reinforcement learning has been shown in a many ways. When using neural networks, however, these models suffer catastrophic forgetting when learned in a lifelong or continual fashion. Current solutions to the continual learning problem require experie…
New findings show that some knotted surfaces remain distinct even after many stabilizations.
LLMs struggle with zero-shot annotation tasks due to model-internalized priors.
To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches, the bank's internal model must include the use of internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. Quantification of operational risk cannot be base…
We investigate the role of networks of alliances in preventing (multilateral) interstate wars. We first show that, in the absence of international trade, no network of alliances is peaceful and stable. We then show that international trade induces peaceful and stable networks: trade increases the density of alliances s…
A common assumption about neural networks is that they can learn an appropriate internal representations on their own, see e.g. end-to-end learning. In this work we challenge this assumption. We consider two simple tasks and show that the state-of-the-art training algorithm fails, although the model itself is able to r…
Bayesian hierarchical tensor factorization model for international trade flows
This paper investigates whether the gravity model (GM) can explain the statistical properties of the International Trade Network (ITN). We fit data on international-trade flows with a GM specification using alternative fitting techniques and we employ GM estimates to build a weighted predicted ITN, whose topological pr…
Investigates optimal strategies for market makers using internal liquidity.
Here, we present the World Trade Atlas 1870-2013, a collection of annual world trade maps in which distance combines economic size and the different dimensions that affect international trade beyond mere geography. Trade distances, which are based on a gravity model predicting the existence of significant trade channel…
Random feature maps improve forecasting with cheaper computation.
Bilateral trade relationships in the international level between pairs of countries in the world give rise to the notion of the International Trade Network (ITN). This network has attracted the attention of network researchers as it serves as an excellent example of the weighted networks, the link weight being defined …
A new method generates natural-looking adversarial examples by bounding internal activation values.
This paper evaluates and validates cluster results using external and internal evaluation methods.
International trade fluxes evolve as countries revise their portfolios of trade products towards economic development. Accordingly products' shares in international trade vary with time, reflecting the transfer of capital between distinct industrial sectors. Here we analyze the share of hundreds of product categories i…
Relates two types of skein algebras using explicit correspondences.
Trade finance history traced from medieval origins to modern markets.
The interdependent nature of the global economy has become stronger with increases in international trade and investment. We propose a new model to reconstruct the international trade network and associated cost network by maximizing entropy based on local information about inward and outward trade. We show that the tr…
Brazil proposes a new BRICS trade currency to dominate international trade.