A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The study reveals the hierarchical structure of the international FOREX market using currency fluctuation distribution similarities.
Proposes a Coulomb-like model for international trade flows, fitting real-world data.
Algorithm improves model performance on shifted concepts without retraining.
This paper evaluates and validates cluster results using external and internal evaluation methods.
A new method generates natural-looking adversarial examples by bounding internal activation values.
Improved speech recognition model with better performance.
To quantify an operational risk capital charge under Basel II, many banks adopt a Loss Distribution Approach. Under this approach, quantification of the frequency and severity distributions of operational risk involves the bank's internal data, expert opinions and relevant external data. In this paper we suggest a new …
To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. One of the unresolved challeng…
New methods predict language model out-of-distribution behaviors using causal mechanisms.
Random feature maps improve forecasting with cheaper computation.
This letter uses the Block Maxima Extreme Value approach to quantify catastrophic risk in international equity markets. Risk measures are generated from a set threshold of the distribution of returns that avoids the pitfall of using absolute returns for markets exhibiting diverging levels of risk. From an application t…
We investigate statistical properties of daily international market indices of seven countries, and high-frequency $S&P500$ and KOSDAQ data, by using the detrended fluctuation method and the surrogate test. We have found that the returns of international stock market indices of seven countries follow a universal power-…
Tools of the theory of critical phenomena, namely the scaling analysis and universality, are argued to be applicable to large complex web-like network structures. Using a detailed analysis of the real data of the International Trade Network we argue that the scaled link weight distribution has an approximate log-normal…
We investigate relationship between annual electric power consumption per capita and gross domestic production (GDP) per capita for 131 countries. We found that the relationship can be fitted with a power-law function. We examine the relationship for 47 prefectures in Japan. Furthermore, we investigate values of annual…
One of the findings of the recent literature is that the 2008 financial crisis caused reduction in international diversification benefits. To fully understand the possible potential from diversification, we build an empirical model which combines generalised autoregressive score copula functions with high frequency dat…
While the authors of Batch Normalization (BN) identify and address an important problem involved in training deep networks-- Internal Covariate Shift-- the current solution has certain drawbacks. Specifically, BN depends on batch statistics for layerwise input normalization during training which makes the estimates of …
Reinforcement learning methods require careful design involving a reward function to obtain the desired action policy for a given task. In the absence of hand-crafted reward functions, prior work on the topic has proposed several methods for reward estimation by using expert state trajectories and action pairs. However…
In this paper, we present a two-stage stochastic international portfolio optimisation model to find an optimal allocation for the combination of both assets and currency hedging positions. Our optimisation model allows a "currency overlay", or a deviation of currency exposure from asset exposure, to provide flexibility…
A new SBM for non-negative zero-inflated edge weights in networks.
SelfReflect measures LLM uncertainty by summarizing belief distribution.
Causal ML methods failed to validate their personalized treatment effects in two large trials.
Internal Lagrangians derived from variational principles.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are a vital modeling technique that rely on internal states learned indirectly by optimization of a supervised, unsupervised, or reinforcement training loss. RNNs are used to model dynamic processes that are characterized by underlying latent states whose form is often unknown, precludi…
The Basel II internal ratings-based (IRB) approach to capital adequacy for credit risk plays an important role in protecting the Australian banking sector against insolvency. We outline the mathematical foundations of regulatory capital for credit risk, and extend the model specification of the IRB approach to a more g…
Paper introduces OMD for ordered state transitions in SSMs.
Paper extends port-Hamiltonian model to include internal energy for compressible and incompressible flow.
Transformers infer tasks from context via two modes, geometrically shaped task vectors explain their behavior.
This paper develops a dynamic internal fraud model for operational losses in retail banking. It considers public operational losses arising from internal fraud in retail banking within a group of international banks. Additionally, the model takes into account internal factors such as the ethical quality of workers and …
As Computer Vision moves from a passive analysis of pixels to active analysis of semantics, the breadth of information algorithms need to reason over has expanded significantly. One of the key challenges in this vein is the ability to identify the information required to make a decision, and select an action that will …
International trade fluxes evolve as countries revise their portfolios of trade products towards economic development. Accordingly products' shares in international trade vary with time, reflecting the transfer of capital between distinct industrial sectors. Here we analyze the share of hundreds of product categories i…
A new framework detects anomalous inputs to DNNs.
ProHOC detects OOD samples in class hierarchies, predicting them to correct internal nodes.
Examines international taxation's impact on Georgian businesses.
Optimized execution model using interbank and internal liquidity.
This study assesses how economic shocks affect the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.
The paper analyzes the latent geometry of generative diffusion models.
There are few papers about the international trade of flowers, so it is believed that this paper, with this topic, could be an important contribution to the international scientific community. It is intended to analyze if the international trade flowers tendencies and policies are adapted to the actual world global con…
Spain uses DEA to select international markets for exports.
Introduces internal Lagrangians for differential equations and connects them to presymplectic structures.
New findings show that some knotted surfaces remain distinct even after many stabilizations.
Labor productivity was studied at the microscopic level in terms of distributions based on individual firm financial data from Japan and the US. A power-law distribution in terms of firms and sector productivity was found in both countries' data. The labor productivities were not equal for nation and sectors, in contra…
We propose a Monte Carlo simulation method to generate stress tests by VaR scenarios under Solvency II for dependent risks on the basis of observed data. This is of particular interest for the construction of Internal Models and requirements on evaluation processes formulated in the Commission Delegated Regulation. The…
This paper develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyze the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it to estimate the joint degree of market efficiency in the sense of Fama (1970, 1…
Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations from the CMIP5 decadal experiments, we quantified the total uncertainty associated with these predictions …
Investigates optimal strategies for market makers using internal liquidity.
Corporate governance struggles to curb fraud in a globalized economy.
Mathematical model predicts international trade and global economy dynamics.
The paper analyzes trade dynamics among G7 countries, revealing unequal exchange and degenerate equilibrium states.