A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper models SOFR and EFFR dynamics, reconciling diffusive and piecewise paths.
The interest rates (or nominal yields) can be negative, this is an unavoidable fact which has already been visible during the Great Depression (1929-39). Nowadays we can find negative rates easily by e.g. auditing. Several theoretical and practical ideas how to model and eventually overcome empirical negative rates can…
The paper develops a valuation framework for GLWB-LTC contracts with Levy dynamics and stochastic interest rates.
The present study deals with the analysis and mapping of Swiss franc interest rates. Interest rates depend on time and maturity, defining term structure of the interest rate curves (IRC). In the present study IRC are considered in a two-dimensional feature space - time and maturity. Geostatistical models and machine le…
Develops a bi-variate stochastic framework to model mortality and interest rates with long-range dependence.
Investment strategy optimized for ambiguity and interest rate risk.
Model analyzes debt recycling strategies under various fiscal regimes and jurisdictions.
The paper analyzes GMWB annuities in low interest rate environments.
The study proposes a new interest rate model that captures long-term periodicity in U.S. Treasury yields.
Method calibrates local volatility and stochastic short rate models for equity-rate dynamics.
This paper studies the dynamics of Brazilian interest rates for short-term maturities. The paper employs developed techniques in the econophysics literature and tests for long-range dependence in the term structure of these interest rates for the last decade. Empirical results suggest that the degree of long-range depe…
We present a family of models for the term structure of interest rates which describe the interest rate curve as a stochastic process in a Hilbert space. We start by decomposing the deformations of the term structure into the variations of the short rate, the long rate and the fluctuations of the curve around its avera…
Models which postulate lognormal dynamics for interest rates which are compounded according to market conventions, such as forward LIBOR or forward swap rates, can be constructed initially in a discrete tenor framework. Interpolating interest rates between maturities in the discrete tenor structure is equivalent to ext…
We present a detailed analysis of interest rate derivatives valuation under credit risk and collateral modeling. We show how the credit and collateral extended valuation framework in Pallavicini et al (2011), and the related collateralized valuation measure, can be helpful in defining the key market rates underlying th…
It is well known that the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic model to study the term structure of interest rates, as introduced in 1985, is inadequate for modelling the current market environment with negative short interest rates. Moreover, the diffusion term in the rate dynamics goes to zero when short rates are sma…
New risk measure considers horizon risk and interest rate uncertainty.
The paper models exchange rate risk premium using mean-reverting dynamics.
Novel pricing method for equity-indexed annuities under uncertain volatility and stochastic interest rate.
Study optimizes dividend payout strategies under fluctuating interest rates.
Enhanced Gordon growth model for valuing financial products.
A robust machine learning approach forecasts U.S. Treasury yields, reducing risk for investors.
By employing the technique of enlargement of filtrations, we demonstrate how to incorporate information about the future trend of the stochastic interest rate process into a financial model. By modeling the interest rate as an affine diffusion process, we obtain explicit formulas for the additional expected logarithmic…
DGNN predicts financial margin calls under stress tests.
This paper examines interest rates and market efficiency in DeFi loanable funds protocols.
This work reduces DIM computation costs by training neural networks on single MC paths.
Enhances valuation of variable annuities with stochastic interest rate models.
Solomon and Golo [1] have recently proposed an autocatalytic (self-reinforcing) feedback model which couples a macroscopic system parameter (the interest rate), a microscopic parameter that measures the distribution of the states of the individual agents (the number of firms in financial difficulty) and a peer-to-peer …
We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analogue of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify th…
This paper offers a new class of models of the term structure of interest rates. We allow each instantaneous forward rate to be driven by a different stochastic shock, constrained in such a way as to keep the forward rate curve continuous. We term the process followed by the shocks to the forward curve ``stochastic str…
Model interest rates and energy futures with regime-switching dynamics.
Investigates how 'green' labels affect bond market dynamics.
A variable annuity contract with Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) promises to return the entire initial investment through cash withdrawals during the contract plus the remaining account balance at maturity, regardless of the portfolio performance. Under the optimal(dynamic) withdrawal strategy of a policyh…
Examines SOFR derivatives pricing and hedging post-LIBOR discontinuation.
We develop a new DTSM with nonlinearities using Gaussian Processes for better interest rate forecasting.
The paper modifies interest rate models to better fit current economic conditions.
Study models interest rates as CTMC, pricing and replicating derivatives.
Study on asset price dynamics in OLG economies with and without a bubbly asset.
Develops a novel SABR DNN for accurate volatility surface calibration.
The aim of this paper is to propose a new methodology that allows forecasting, through Vasicek and CIR models, of future expected interest rates (for each maturity) based on rolling windows from observed financial market data. The novelty, apart from the use of those models not for pricing but for forecasting the expec…
Recently, there has been great interest in connections between continuous-time dynamical systems and optimization methods, notably in the context of accelerated methods for smooth and unconstrained problems. In this paper we extend this perspective to nonsmooth and constrained problems by obtaining differential inclusi…
We construct a no-arbitrage model of bond prices where the long bond is used as a numeraire. We develop bond prices and their dynamics without developing any model for the spot rate or forward rates. The model is arbitrage free and all nominal interest rates remain positive in the model. We give examples where our mode…
The paper models foreign capital inflow from the developed to the developing countries in a stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) framework. Under some regularity conditions, the existence of the solutions to the SDP problem is proved and they are then obtained by numerical technique because of the non-linearity of the …
We develop a model for the dynamic evolution of default-free and defaultable interest rates in a LIBOR framework. Utilizing the class of affine processes, this model produces positive LIBOR rates and spreads, while the dynamics are analytically tractable under defaultable forward measures. This leads to explicit formul…
Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is an essential task in industrial applications such as video recommendation. Recently, deep learning models have been proposed to learn the representation of users' overall interests, while ignoring the fact that interests may dynamically change over time. We argue that it is necess…
For a long time interest-rate models were built on a single yield curve used both for discounting and forwarding. However, the crisis that has affected financial markets in the last years led market players to revise this assumption and accommodate basis-swap spreads, whose remarkable widening can no longer be neglecte…
Derives PDEs for pricing RFR derivatives under a new FMM model.
We present a new approach for the pricing of interest rate derivatives which allows a direct computation of option premiums without deriving a (Black-Scholes type) partial differential equation and without explicitly solving the stochastic process for the underlying variable. The approach is tested by rederiving the pr…
This paper considers the case of pricing discretely-sampled variance swaps under the class of equity-interest rate hybridization. Our modeling framework consists of the equity which follows the dynamics of the Heston stochastic volatility model, and the stochastic interest rate is driven by the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR)…