Paper compares largest claim amounts from two interdependent portfolios.
problem Comparing claim amounts from two sets of interdependent portfolios.
method Stochastic comparisons using dependent non-negative random variables and Bernoulli variables.
result Stochastic order results for largest claim amounts.
Model shows how financial contagion spreads through complex interdependencies.
problem Understanding how banks fail in an interconnected financial system.
method Unified model combining direct and indirect dependencies; three reconstruction methods.
result Hierarchical cascades reveal dominant banks in failures.
Paper compares smallest claim amounts from two interdependent portfolios.
problem Comparing smallest claim amounts from two sets of interdependent portfolios.
method Dependent non-negative random variables with survival copula, Bernoulli random variables, likelihood ratio order.
result Bounds for survival function of the smallest claim amount in a portfolio.
Study uses MTD model to optimize portfolios by capturing complex financial asset relationships.
problem Capturing nonlinear and directional relationships in financial markets.
method Directed and weighted financial networks using Mixture Transition Distribution (MTD) model.
result Portfolio optimization with network-based assortativity measures outperforms classical methods.
The paper solves portfolio optimization problems with risk constraints.
problem Maximizing utility while ensuring a certain wealth threshold with risk constraints.
method Derives Nash equilibria for two agents and characterizes them for more than two agents.
result Characterizes Nash equilibria for different cases of competition probabilities.
Cross-border equity and long-term debt securities portfolio investment networks are analysed from 2002 to 2012, covering the 2008 global financial crisis. They serve as network-proxies for measuring the robustness of the global financial system and the interdependence of financial markets, respectively. Two early-warni…
This paper optimizes cryptocurrency portfolios by clustering price correlations and improving risk-return profiles.
problem Volatility and regulatory uncertainty in cryptocurrency markets make portfolio construction challenging.
method The paper combines network analysis, price forecasting, and portfolio theory to identify stable groups of correlated cryptocurrencies.
result Predictive consensus-clustering portfolios maintain positive and stable performance up to a 14-day horizon, with favourable gain-loss asymmetry and tighter tail-risk control.
Study maps interdependence of SDGs, finds complex, dynamic linkages.
problem Identify which SDGs promote progress and how quickly.
method Used a balanced panel of 114 countries from 2000 to 2024, applying two estimators to recover directed interaction network and measure dynamic linkages.
result 84 goal linkages survive false-discovery control, showing both synergies and trade-offs, with no single goal acting as a universal accelerator.
A new method uses GATs to optimise portfolios of mid-cap firms, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Optimising portfolios of mid-cap firms considering interdependencies and firms at risk of default.
method Graph Attention Networks (GATs) applied to large-scale financial data.
result The GAT-based portfolio outperforms traditional benchmarks over a long period.
Study the Mexican stock market's interdependency structure from 2000-2019.
problem Characterize the interdependency structure of the Mexican Stock Exchange.
method Estimate correlation/concentration matrices from different models and compute network theory metrics.
result Visualizations provide a comprehensive overview of the stock market's interdependency structure.
RPN 2 improves function learning by modeling data interdependence.
problem Invalid assumption of input data independence leads to performance degradation.
method Integrates data and structural interdependence functions into RPN 2's architecture.
result Significantly improves learning performance and expands unifying potential.
New measure shows how LSTM models compose hierarchical representations.
problem Understanding how LSTM models capture compositional structure in language.
method Novel measure of interdependence between word meanings in LSTM internal gates.
result High interdependence can hurt generalization and reveals hierarchical structure learning.
This paper develops a federated approach to learn Granger causality in interdependent industrial clients.
problem Detecting and quantifying interdependencies in large, complex industrial data.
method Linear state space system framework, federated learning, differential privacy.
result Federated Granger causality learning addresses bandwidth and computational limitations.
Co-trading networks reveal dynamic market structures and improve covariance estimation.
problem Modeling high-dimensional stock covariances in US equity markets.
method Co-trading-based pairwise similarity measure for constructing dynamic networks, spectral clustering, robust covariance estimator.
result Co-trading networks capture time-evolving stock dependencies and improve portfolio performance.
Analyzes global economic sectors' interdependence using Google matrix analysis.
problem Understanding interdependencies and interactions among world economies and sectors.
method Reduced Google matrix algorithm applied to OECD-WTO network data.
result Shows sensitivity of sectors to petroleum activity and interdependencies among countries.
Paper tackles RCA in complex networks with unknown interdependencies.
problem Difficult RCA in networked systems due to unknown interdependencies.
method Federated learning for feature-partitioned, nonlinear data without modifying client models.
result Established theoretical convergence guarantees and validated on real-world data.
FS-GCLSTM predicts stock returns by leveraging value-chain relationships.
problem Traditional time series models fail to capture complex interdependencies in modern markets.
method FS-GCLSTM integrates value-chain networks and graph convolutions to predict stock returns.
result FS-GCLSTM consistently delivers superior portfolio performance compared to traditional models.
CAUSE learns Granger causality from event sequences, outperforming existing methods.
problem Learning Granger causality from complex, interdependent event sequences.
method CAUSE uses a neural point process to capture interdependency and an attribution method to extract Granger causality.
result CAUSE outperforms state-of-the-art methods in inferring inter-type Granger causality.
To identify emerging interdependencies between traded stocks we investigate the behavior of the stocks of FTSE 100 companies in the period 2000-2015, by looking at daily stock values. Exploiting the power of information theoretical measures to extract direct influences between multiple time series, we compute the infor…
We generalize the scale-free network model of Barabàsi and Albert [Science 286, 509 (1999)] by proposing a class of stochastic models for scale-free interdependent networks in which interdependent nodes are not randomly connected but rather are connected via preferential attachment (PA). Each network grows through the …
In the current era of worldwide stock market interdependencies, the global financial village has become increasingly vulnerable to systemic collapse. The recent global financial crisis has highlighted the necessity of understanding and quantifying interdependencies among the world's economies, developing new effective …
Extends Bayesian theory to handle complex interdependencies in multidimensional event spaces.
problem Complex interdependencies between events and hypotheses sets in real-world systems.
method Developed a mathematical formalism for modeling complex relationships through rigorous derivation and validated using analytical proofs, simulations, and case studies.
result MDSE theory improves prediction accuracy by 15-20% compared to standard Bayesian methods in high interdimensionality datasets.
A new random forest algorithm uncovers feature interdependencies better than traditional methods.
problem Tackles the sub-optimality of greedy decision tree implementations in random forests.
method Presented a 'stepwise lookahead' variation of random forests that considers multiple split nodes simultaneously.
result Significantly outperforms greedy random forests in uncovering feature interdependencies, especially in high-noise environments.
Graph Posterior Network improves uncertainty estimation for node classification in interdependent graphs.
problem Uncertainty quantification for non-independent node-level predictions in graphs.
method Derives axioms for expected predictive uncertainty, proposes Graph Posterior Network (GPN) which performs Bayesian posterior updates.
result GPN outperforms existing approaches for uncertainty estimation in semi-supervised node classification.
Federated learning interprets temporal dynamics across clients with graph attention.
problem Interpreting temporal patterns across decentralized, heterogeneous systems with nonlinear dynamics.
method Graph Attention Network for learning state transition models over latent states communicated between clients.
result First interpretable characterization of cross-client temporal interdependencies in decentralized nonlinear systems.
Proposes a regularization approach to model German power derivative market, identifying significant risk spillovers.
problem Large portfolio of German power derivative contracts, identifying significant risk spillovers.
method Combines high-dimensional variable selection with dynamic network analysis.
result Identifies significant risk contributors and interdependencies between contracts, especially spot contracts.
Study examines cryptocurrency impacts on financial indices using advanced risk models.
problem Interdependence between cryptocurrencies and financial indices, focusing on risk spillover.
method Hybrid approach integrating GARCH, EVT, and copula functions for risk measures.
result eGARCH-EVT-Copula model outperforms conventional methods in risk estimation.
Empirical study on hyperparameters affecting RL generalization.
problem Understanding how hyperparameters affect RL generalization across different domains.
method Empirical analysis of hyperparameters including architecture, regularization, and RL-dependent variables.
result Complex and interdependent relationships between hyperparameters and generalization performance.
In this paper, we propose a new framework to study the generalization property of classifier chains trained over observations associated with multiple and interdependent class labels. The results are based on large deviation inequalities for Lipschitz functions of weakly dependent sequences proposed by Rio in 2000. We …
New approach for causal inference with interdependent, time-varying latent confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects with interdependent, time-varying latent confounders.
method Variational estimation with a representer theorem and random input space.
result Demonstrates effectiveness on various temporal datasets.
This study maps systemic risks in TradFi and DeFi, highlighting their interdependence.
problem Systemic risks in traditional and decentralized finance.
method Conceptual model and comparative analysis of TradFi and DeFi.
result Systemic risks in DeFi can affect TradFi and vice versa, creating a crosstagion effect.
The recent financial crisis of 2008 and the 2011 indebtedness of Greece highlight the importance of understanding the structure of the global financial network. In this paper we set out to analyze and characterize this network, as captured by the IMF Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS), in two ways. First, t…
Through a long-period analysis of the inter-temporal relations between the French markets for credit default swaps (CDS), shares and bonds between 2001 and 2008, this article shows how a financial innovation like CDS could heighten financial instability. After describing the operating principles of credit derivatives i…
We present a new approach to estimating the interdependence of industries in an economy by applying data science solutions. By exploiting interfirm buyer--seller network data, we show that the problem of estimating the interdependence of industries is similar to the problem of uncovering the latent block structure in n…
Simultaneously estimates travel times and route choice model parameters.
problem Interdependent estimation of arc travel times and route choice model parameters.
method Maximum likelihood estimation for any differentiable route choice model.
result Strong performance in real-world data, even compared to arc travel time estimation methods.
The large-scale organization of the world economies is exhibiting increasingly levels of local heterogeneity and global interdependency. Understanding the relation between local and global features calls for analytical tools able to uncover the global emerging organization of the international trade network. Here we an…
A new convolutional spectral kernel network learns hierarchical and local features.
problem Lack of deep learning in non-stationary spectral kernels.
method Introduces convolutional filters and deep architectures into non-stationary spectral kernels, derives generalization error bounds, and introduces regularizers.
result Validated the effectiveness of the convolutional spectral kernel network on real-world datasets.
The paper analyzes the crash of stock and commodity markets during COVID-19 using Topological Data Analysis.
problem Identifying and understanding the dynamics and interdependence of stock and commodity markets during the COVID-19 crash.
method Topological Data Analysis (TDA) and Wasserstein Distance (WD) to identify crashes and compare market dynamics.
result Significant topological differences and interdependence between stock and commodity markets during the crash period.
New approach protects privacy of deleted records in machine learning.
problem Privacy of deleted records in machine learning models.
method Sound deletion guarantee and noisy gradient descent algorithm.
result Privacy of existing records is necessary for deleted records' privacy.
This paper presents a novel decentralized high-dimensional Bayesian optimization (DEC-HBO) algorithm that, in contrast to existing HBO algorithms, can exploit the interdependent effects of various input components on the output of the unknown objective function f for boosting the BO performance and still preserve scala…
Following Goussarov's paper `Interdependent Modifications of Links and Invariants of Finite Degree' [Topology 37 (1998) 595--602] we describe an alternative finite type theory of knots. While (as shown by Goussarov) the alternative theory turns out to be equivalent to the standard one, it nevertheless has its own share…
Empirical study finds IT project costs follow a power-law distribution, exposing risk underestimation.
problem IT project cost overruns are underestimated due to normal distribution assumptions.
method Analyzed 5,392 IT projects to examine cost overruns following a power-law distribution.
result IT project cost overruns follow a power-law distribution with a fat tail of extreme overruns.
Develops auction theory for real-life applications with positive valuations.
problem Real-life auction settings with positive valuations and interdependent bidders.
method Approximations using log-normal distribution, positive symmetric discrete distribution, and interdependent valuations.
result New auction theory results applicable to finance and procurement.
This paper introduces a new sparse spatio-temporal structured Gaussian process regression framework for online and offline Bayesian inference. This is the first framework that gives a time-evolving representation of the interdependencies between the components of the sparse signal of interest. A hierarchical Gaussian p…
CDA framework infers channel influence from aggregated data without user identifiers.
problem Lack of user-level path data due to privacy regulations and platform restrictions.
method CDA integrates PCMCI for causal discovery and Structural Causal Model for effect estimation.
result CDA achieves strong accuracy in estimating channel influence, even under structural uncertainty.
This paper uses Factored Latent Analysis (FLA) to learn a factorized, segmental representation for observations of tracked objects over time. Factored Latent Analysis is latent class analysis in which the observation space is subdivided and each aspect of the original space is represented by a separate latent class mod…
The combination of the network theoretic approach with recently available abundant economic data leads to the development of novel analytic and computational tools for modelling and forecasting key economic indicators. The main idea is to introduce a topological component into the analysis, taking into account consiste…
Federated framework learns causal states to predict counterfactuals without centralizing data.
problem Decentralized counterfactual reasoning in coupled industrial systems with private data.
method Federated causal representation learning in state-space systems.
result Proves convergence to centralized oracle and provides privacy guarantees.