New method uses unlabeled data to estimate intercept in case-control logistic regression.
problem Estimating intercept in case-control logistic regression.
method Construct likelihood function, use iterative algorithm to find maximum likelihood estimator.
result Proposed method identifies intercept and improves estimation efficiency.
The problems of outliers detection and robust regression in a high-dimensional setting are fundamental in statistics, and have numerous applications. Following a recent set of works providing methods for simultaneous robust regression and outliers detection, we consider in this paper a model of linear regression with i…
A method for logistic regression inference using both internal and external data.
problem Inability to estimate intercept and marginal case proportion in case-control logistic regression.
method Empirical likelihood approach integrating internal and external data.
result Intercept parameter becomes identifiable with external information, and all parameters are estimable consistently.
A drone catches another agile drone using competitive reinforcement learning.
problem Intercepting an agile drone with another agile drone.
method Formulated as a Competitive Reinforcement Learning problem, trained with PPO, using a high-fidelity simulation environment.
result Trained policies outperform common heuristic baselines in catch rate, time to catch, and crash rate.
The paper explores geometric properties of interception curves on planes and spheres.
problem Geometric properties of interception curves defined by differential equations.
method Parametric representation and spherical curve defined by Gudermannian function.
result Symmetry/asymmetry between spherical and planar cases, connections to lemniscate constants.
Study of pursuit-evasion game on sphere and its relation to planar Apollonius circle.
problem Analyzing pursuit-evasion game on a sphere and its properties.
method Extending classical planar pursuit-evasion game to spherical geometry, studying equilibrium intercept points and their relation to Apollonius domain.
result Condition for intercept point to belong to Apollonius domain on sphere, analogous to planar game.
In this paper, a generalized multivariate Student-t mixture model is developed for classification and clustering of Low Probability of Intercept radar waveforms. A Low Probability of Intercept radar signal is characterized by a pulse compression waveform which is either frequency-modulated or phase-modulated. The propo…
The paper optimizes hyperplanes for binary classification in high-dimensional data with latent Gaussian mixtures.
problem Binary classification in high-dimensional data with latent Gaussian mixtures.
method Generalized least squares estimator for estimating the direction of the optimal separating hyperplane. Simple correction for intercept estimation.
result The procedure is minimax optimal in many scenarios and can retain the interpolation property.
New method learns robust representations by modeling environment variation.
problem Learning invariant representations across varying environments.
method Explicitly modeling variation across environments and marginalizing it out.
result Proposed method outperforms invariant-learning methods in various settings.
PS^2 selects assets then weights for high-dimensional investing.
problem High-dimensional mean--variance investing challenges.
method Two-step framework: Lasso screening followed by standard portfolio estimation.
result FPS^2 with defactored returns improves performance.
Proposes a new test for validating multivariate dynamic regression models.
problem Inadequate exogeneity conditions for conventional model specification tests in dynamic systems.
method Develops a generalized Durbin estimator for multiple-equation systems with dynamic dependencies, and constructs Wald tests.
result Bootstrap-based Wald tests improve finite-sample size control and validate the null hypothesis in multifactor models.
Improved classifier for PU data using logistic regression.
problem Analysis of Positive Unlabeled data under SCAR assumption.
method Fitting misspecified logistic regression model to PU data.
result The classifier performs on par or better than competitors on real data sets.
PSC classifier improves HDLSS classification on class-imbalanced data.
problem Classification on high-dimension low-sample-size data with class imbalance.
method Population Structure-learned Classifier (PSC) maximizing inter-class and intra-class scatter matrices.
result PSC outperforms state-of-the-art methods on IHDLSS.
Study protects federated learning models from eavesdropping attacks.
problem Protecting client models in federated learning from eavesdropping adversaries.
method Theoretical analysis and numerical experiments examining various factors.
result Theoretical and experimental results show the effectiveness of protection methods.
PRESTO improves rare event prediction by shrinking towards proportional odds model.
problem Difficult to predict rare events due to class imbalance.
method PRESTO relaxes proportional odds model by estimating separate weights for transitions between categories, imposing L1 penalty to shrink towards proportional odds.
result PRESTO consistently estimates decision boundary weights under sparsity assumption, improving rare probability estimation.
Generative ML learns optimal pursuit trajectories in pursuit-evasion games.
problem Optimizing Blue's pursuit trajectory to intercept Red in a game of pursuit-evasion.
method Applying generative machine learning to learn optimal action policies for Blue.
result Generative ML models can learn relevant representations for pursuit-evasion dynamics.
Marginal maximum likelihood (MML) estimation is the preferred approach to fitting item response theory models in psychometrics due to the MML estimator's consistency, normality, and efficiency as the sample size tends to infinity. However, state-of-the-art MML estimation procedures such as the Metropolis-Hastings Robbi…
Deep learning architectures (DLA) have shown impressive performance in computer vision, natural language processing and so on. Many DLA make use of cloud computing to achieve classification due to the high computation and memory requirements. Privacy and latency concerns resulting from cloud computing has inspired the …
The paper improves classification accuracy by leveraging a shared signal across domains in high-dimensional classification.
problem Improving classification accuracy in high-dimensional data with shared signals across domains.
method Transfer learning for linear discriminant analysis, decomposing mean differences into common and domain-specific components.
result Deterministic limits for transfer performance, leading to optimal weights and corrections for bias.
There is an extensive historical dataset on real GDP per capita prepared by Angus Maddison. This dataset covers the period since 1870 with continuous annual estimates in developed countries. All time series for individual economies have a clear structural break between 1940 and 1950. The behavior before 1940 and after …
New AMP algorithm estimates signals and latent variables in mixed regression models.
problem Estimating signals and latent variables in mixed regression models.
method Approximate Message Passing (AMP) algorithm for matrix GLM.
result State evolution recursion and optimal denoising functions for precise error minimization.
New method identifies sepsis-related patient features in EMR data.
problem Identify sepsis-related patient features in EMR data.
method Linear multivariate Hawkes process model with ReLU link function, coupled with gradient-based method.
result Identifies several interpretable GC chains that precede sepsis.
We consider properties of the measurement intensity ρ of a random variable for which the probability density function represented by the corresponding Wigner function attains negative values on a part of the domain. We consider a simple economic interpretation of this problem. This model is used to present the applic…
We establish explicit socially optimal rules for an irreversible investment deci- sion with time-to-build and uncertainty. Assuming a price sensitive demand function with a random intercept, we provide comparative statics and economic interpreta- tions for three models of demand (arithmetic Brownian, geometric Brownian…
This paper optimizes binary linear classifiers by tuning their weight vectors.
problem Optimizing the weight vector of binary linear classifiers for better performance.
method Parameterization of the discriminant through a scalar to control trade-offs between informative and noisy terms.
result Weight vector tuning compensates for non-optimal native hyperparameters, improving classification performance.
Optimizes variational inference for dynamic network models.
problem Estimating pairwise inner products and intercepts in dynamic latent space models.
method Structured mean-field variational inference with block coordinate ascent algorithm.
result Variational risk attains minimax optimal rate with logarithmic factor under certain conditions.
In this paper, we propose a one-pass algorithm on MapReduce for penalized linear regression \[f_λ(α, β) = \|Y - α\mathbf{1} - Xβ\|_2^2 + p_λ(β)\] where α is the intercept which can be omitted depending on application; β is the coefficients and pλ is the penalized function with penalizing parameter λ. $f_λ(α, β…
We empirically test predictability on asset price by using stock selection rules based on maximum drawdown and its consecutive recovery. In various equity markets, monthly momentum- and weekly contrarian-style portfolios constructed from these alternative selection criteria are superior not only in forecasting directio…
Paper proposes Sp-GD for sparse max-affine regression with theoretical guarantees.
problem Sparse max-affine regression model selection and estimation.
method Sparse Gradient Descent (Sp-GD) initialization using sparse PCA and covering search.
result Sp-GD provides ε-accurate estimates with optimal number of observations.
This paper is devoted to the important yet unexplored subject of crowding effects on market impact, that we call "co-impact". Our analysis is based on a large database of metaorders by institutional investors in the U.S. equity market. We find that the market chiefly reacts to the net order flow of ongoing metaorders, …
Optimal experiments tighten causal effect bounds efficiently.
problem Selecting experiments to tighten causal effect bounds from observational data.
method Formalized as max-potency problem, NP-hard. Polynomial-programming framework with graphical pruning criteria.
result Pruning criteria reduce search space significantly, enabling efficient experiment selection.
Equity-Directed Bootstrapping improves model performance across groups in imbalanced datasets.
problem Improving model performance across different groups in imbalanced datasets.
method Equity-Directed Bootstrapping to balance training data with respect to both labels and group identity.
result The equity-directed bootstrap brings test set sensitivities and specificities closer to satisfying the equal odds criterion.
We consider a communication scenario, in which an intruder tries to determine the modulation scheme of the intercepted signal. Our aim is to minimize the accuracy of the intruder, while guaranteeing that the intended receiver can still recover the underlying message with the highest reliability. This is achieved by per…
Linear models can be poisoned by shifting a fraction of one class's data, revealing scaling laws and weight alignment.
problem Understanding and quantifying data poisoning in linear models.
method Analysis of ridge least squares with an unpenalized intercept, using resolvent techniques and random matrix theory.
result Closed-form limits for the poisoned score, revealing scaling laws and weight alignment with the poisoning direction.
Logit-link models reveal socio-temporal effects on microfinance delinquency.
problem Understanding and quantifying socio-temporal factors affecting microfinance loan delinquency.
method Developed and evaluated discrete-time logit-link models with fixed-effects and frailty extensions.
result Simple random intercept structures capture latent heterogeneity in microfinance repayment behavior.
A novel linear classification method that possesses the merits of both the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and the Distance-weighted Discrimination (DWD) is proposed in this article. The proposed Distance-weighted Support Vector Machine method can be viewed as a hybrid of SVM and DWD that finds the classification directio…
Federated learning is a distributed learning method to train a shared model by aggregating the locally-computed gradient updates. In federated learning, bandwidth and privacy are two main concerns of gradient updates transmission. This paper proposes an end-to-end encrypted neural network for gradient updates transmiss…
Technical trading rules and linear regressive models are often used by practitioners to find trends in financial data. However, these models are unsuited to find non-linearly separable patterns. We propose a decision tree forecasting model that has the flexibility to capture arbitrary patterns. To illustrate, we constr…
In this paper we present Percival, a browser-embedded, lightweight, deep learning-powered ad blocker. Percival embeds itself within the browser's image rendering pipeline, which makes it possible to intercept every image obtained during page execution and to perform blocking based on applying machine learning for image…
ICCNLS models complex relationships as convex and concave components.
problem Complex input-output relationships with affine ambiguity.
method Sub-gradient constrained affine functions, global orthogonality constraints, L1, L2, and elastic net regularisation.
result Improved predictive accuracy and model simplicity compared to conventional methods.
Study of linear classifiers in infinite imbalance scenarios.
problem Behavior of linear discriminant functions in extreme imbalance conditions.
method Analysis of linear classifiers under infinite imbalance, focusing on weight function properties and limit behavior.
result Limiting coefficient vectors reflect robustness or conservatism, optimizing against worst-case alternatives.
We consider the decentralized exploration problem: a set of players collaborate to identify the best arm by asynchronously interacting with the same stochastic environment. The objective is to insure privacy in the best arm identification problem between asynchronous, collaborative, and thrifty players. In the context …
Simulation study evaluates tree-based imputation methods for multi-level data.
problem Ignoring dependencies in hierarchical data can compromise imputation accuracy.
method Chained Random Forests and Extreme Gradient Boosting (mixgb) adapted for multi-level data.
result Adapted boosting methods outperform traditional MICE for Level-1 variables at higher missingness rates.
New analysis shows bias term affects conditions for benign overfitting in linear classifiers.
problem Understanding conditions for good generalization in linear classifiers with bias terms.
method Extending Hashimoto et al.'s results to include bias terms, analyzing covariance structure and label noise.
result Benign overfitting persists in linear classifiers with bias terms, with new constraints on data's covariance structure.
Categorical regressor variables are usually handled by introducing a set of indicator variables, and imposing a linear constraint to ensure identifiability in the presence of an intercept, or equivalently, using one of various coding schemes. As proposed in Yuan and Lin [J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 68 (2006), 49-67], the gr…
Various applications in different fields, such as gene expression analysis or computer vision, suffer from data sets with high-dimensional low-sample-size (HDLSS), which has posed significant challenges for standard statistical and modern machine learning methods. In this paper, we propose a novel linear binary classif…
Study models live cattle futures prices in Brazil.
problem Estimate futures prices for better risk management.
method Holt-Winters, ARIMA, GARMA models.
result GARMA(2,1) model best predicts BGI prices.
Paper introduces Functional Effects Models to account for individual heterogeneity in panel data.
problem Accounting for preference heterogeneity in panel data with machine learning.
method Functional Effects Models using gradient boosting decision trees and deep neural networks to learn individual-specific preference parameters.
result Functional Effects Models outperform traditional models in learning inter-individual heterogeneity and predictive performance.