A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Interbank lending and borrowing occur when financial institutions seek to settle and refinance their mutual positions over time and circumstances. This interactive process involves money creation at the aggregate level. Coordination mismatch on interbank credit may trigger systemic crises. This happened when, since sum…
We discuss the systemic risk implied by the interbank exposures reconstructed with the maximum entropy method. The maximum entropy method severely underestimates the risk of interbank contagion by assuming a fully connected network, while in reality the structure of the interbank network is sparsely connected. Here, we…
We propose a new model of the liquidity driven banking system focusing on overnight interbank loans. This significant branch of the interbank market is commonly neglected in the banking system modeling and systemic risk analysis. We construct a model where banks are allowed to use both the interbank and the securities …
Modelling of contagion in interbank networks is discussed. A model taking into account bow-tie structure and dissasortativity of interbank networks is developed. The model is shown to provide a good quantitative description of the Russian interbank market. Detailed arguments favoring the non-percolative nature of conta…
Systemic risks of default contagion in the Russian interbank market are investigated. The analysis is based on considering the bow-tie structure of the weighted oriented graph describing the structure of the interbank loans. A probabilistic model of interbank contagion explicitly taking into account the empirical bow-t…
We study insolvency cascades in an interbank system when banks are allowed to insure their loans with credit default swaps (CDS) sold by other banks. We show that, by properly shifting financial exposures from one institution to another, a CDS market can be designed to rewire the network of interbank exposures in a way…
Model shows how banks' fears of future defaults can cause immediate financial stress.
Systemic risks characterizing the Russian overnight interbank market from the network point of view are analyzed.
Study connects bank default models using dynamic contagion.
Study examines large banks' role in interbank markets using game theory.
Paper studies central bank's strategy to control systemic risk in interbank system.
In this paper we consider a mean-field model of interacting diffusions for the monetary reserves in which the reserves are subjected to a self- and cross-exciting shock. This is motivated by the financial acceleration and fire sales observed in the market. We derive a mean-field limit using a weak convergence analysis …
Model assesses how supply chain disruptions affect financial stability.
Systemic liquidity risk, defined by the IMF as "the risk of simultaneous liquidity difficulties at multiple financial institutions", is a key topic in macroprudential policy and financial stress analysis. Specialized models to simulate funding liquidity risk and contagion are available but they require not only banks' …
Credit and liquidity risks represent main channels of financial contagion for interbank lending markets. On one hand, banks face potential losses whenever their counterparties are under distress and thus unable to fulfill their obligations. On the other hand, solvency constraints may force banks to recover lost funding…
Study compares empirical systemic risk with balance sheet risk in interbank networks.
Paper uses interbank contagion to predict U.S. bank defaults, finding it highly explanatory.
Financial contagion from liquidity shocks has being recently ascribed as a prominent driver of systemic risk in interbank lending markets. Building on standard compartment models used in epidemics, in this work we develop an EDB (Exposed-Distressed-Bankrupted) model for the dynamics of liquidity shocks reverberation be…
The paper examines how CoCo bonds can enhance financial stability in interconnected banking systems.
The global financial crisis in 2007-2009 demonstrated that systemic risk can spread all over the world through a complex web of financial linkages, yet we still lack fundamental knowledge about the evolution of the financial web. In particular, interbank credit networks shape the core of the financial system, in which …
Study optimizes interbank lending and borrowing to reduce systemic risk.
In spite of the growing theoretical literature on cascades of failures in interbank lending networks, empirical results seem to suggest that networks of direct exposures are not the major channel of financial contagion. In this paper we show that networks of interbank exposures can however significantly amplify contagi…
The interbank market has a natural multiplex network representation. We employ a unique database of supervisory reports of Italian banks to the Banca d'Italia that includes all bilateral exposures broken down by maturity and by the secured and unsecured nature of the contract. We find that layers have different topolog…
Assessing the stability of economic systems is a fundamental research focus in economics, that has become increasingly interdisciplinary in the currently troubled economic situation. In particular, much attention has been devoted to the interbank lending market as an important diffusion channel for financial distress d…
Banks in the interbank network can not assess the true risks associated with lending to other banks in the network, unless they have full information on the riskiness of all the other banks. These risks can be estimated by using network metrics (for example DebtRank) of the interbank liability network which is availabl…
An interbank market lets participants pool the risk arising from the combination of illiquid investments and random withdrawals by depositors. But it also creates the potential for one bank's failure to trigger off avalanches of further failures. We simulate a model of interbank lending to study the interplay of these …
We reverse engineer dynamics of financial contagion to find the scenario of smallest exogenous shock that, should it occur, would lead to a given final systemic loss. This reverse stress test can be used to identify the potential triggers of systemic events, and it removes the arbitrariness in the selection of shock sc…
Spectral analysis detects structural changes in financial networks.
An asset network systemic risk (ANWSER) model is presented to investigate the impact of how shadow banks are intermingled in a financial system on the severity of financial contagion. Particularly, the focus of this study is the impact of the following three representative topologies of an interbank loan network betwee…
Management of systemic risk in financial markets is traditionally associated with setting (higher) capital requirements for market participants. There are indications that while equity ratios have been increased massively since the financial crisis, systemic risk levels might not have lowered, but even increased. It ha…
This paper models financial contagion with endogenously determined market liquidity.
Reduces complexity of financial contagion dynamics on networks.
This work explores the characteristics of financial contagion in networks whose links distributions approaches a power law, using a model that defines banks balance sheets from information of network connectivity. By varying the parameters for the creation of the network, several interbank networks are built, in which …
Model analyzes optimal interbank networks during liquidity shocks, revealing core-periphery structures and co-investment requirements.
The interbank market is considered one of the most important channels of contagion. Its network representation, where banks and claims/obligations are represented by nodes and links (respectively), has received a lot of attention in the recent theoretical and empirical literature, for assessing systemic risk and identi…
The paper analyzes financial networks with default charges and defines a model using fixpoint problems.
To a large extent, the systemic importance of financial institutions is related to the topology of financial liability networks. In this work we reconstruct and analyze the - to our knowledge - largest financial network that has been studied up to now. This financial liability network consists of 51,980 firms and 796 b…
Paper introduces balanced payment systems to improve liquidity and risk management.
New method reconstructs interbank networks enforcing reciprocity to improve stability and risk prediction.
We develop a novel stress-test framework to monitor systemic risk in financial systems. The modular structure of the framework allows to accommodate for a variety of shock scenarios, methods to estimate interbank exposures and mechanisms of distress propagation. The main features are as follows. First, the framework al…
Optimized execution model using interbank and internal liquidity.
In our model, private actors with interbank cash flows similar to, but nore general than (Carmona, Fouque, Sun, 2013) borrow from the outside economy at a certain interest rate, controlled by the central bank, and invest in risky assets. Each private actor aims to maximize its expected terminal logarithmic utility. The…
Introduces a new system for modeling bank solvency contagion with heterogeneous impacts and exposures.
The topological properties of interbank networks have been discussed widely in the literature mainly because of their relevance for systemic risk. Here we propose to use the Stochastic Block Model to investigate and perform a model selection among several possible two block organizations of the network: these include b…
Network analysis reveals distinct financial relationships among Euro Area banks.
We report a study of a stylized banking cascade model investigating systemic risk caused by counter party failure using liabilities and assets to define banks' balance sheet. In our stylized system, banks can be in two states: normally operating or distressed and the state of a bank changes from normally operating to d…
Systemic risk in banking systems remains a crucial issue that it has not been completely understood. In our toy model, banks are exposed to two sources of risks, namely, market risk from their investments in assets external to the banking system and credit risk from their lending in the interbank market. By and large, …
Economic integration, globalization and financial crises represent examples of processes whose understanding requires the analysis of the underlying network structure. Of particular interest is establishing whether a real economic network is in a state of (quasi)stationary equilibrium, i.e. characterized by smooth stru…