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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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2805608401,120 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for instrumented data

TSCI estimates treatment effects using machine learning and data-adaptive methods for invalid instruments.

problem Estimating treatment effects with invalid instruments.
method Two-stage algorithm: first stage uses machine learning for nonlinearities, second stage selects and projects out instrument violations.
result Effective treatment effect estimation even with invalid instruments.

Paper develops a new estimator for panel data with endogenous treatments, improving causal inference.

problem Challenges in causal inference for static panel data with endogenous treatments and confounding variables.
method Develops Double Machine Learning (DML) estimator for static panel models with endogenous treatments (panel IV DML). Introduces weak-identification diagnostics.
result Panel IV DML estimator improves estimation accuracy and delivers more reliable inference under weak identification.

The paper uses graph learning to detect valid instruments in high-dimensional data for house pricing.

problem Endogeneity bias and invalid instrument validation in high-dimensional data.
method Merge variable selection algorithms and probabilistic graphs to estimate house prices and causal structure.
result Efficient data-driven instrument selection and invalid instrument purge in high-dimensional data.

Estimates linear model from noisy covariates and instruments using spectral regularization.

problem Estimating a linear model from many noisy covariates and instruments.
method Two-stage least squares with spectral regularization of canonical correlations.
result Upper and lower bounds on estimation error, proving optimality of the method with noisy data.

Study shows annotation instrument design affects model performance in hate speech detection.

problem Impact of annotation instrument design on model performance in hate speech detection.
method Collected annotations from five experimental conditions of an annotation instrument, fine-tuned BERT models on each dataset, evaluated performance on holdout portion.
result Significant differences in model performance and annotations across conditions.

DFIV uses deep neural nets to learn nonlinear features in IV regression.

problem Learning causal relationships from observational data with nonlinear interactions.
method DFIV trains deep neural nets to define nonlinear features on instruments and treatments, alternating training to compose stages 1 and 2.
result DFIV outperforms state-of-the-art methods on IV benchmarks and off-policy policy evaluation.

New algorithms for IV regression with streaming data, avoiding matrix inversions.

problem Instrumental variable regression with streaming data.
method Viewing IV regression as a stochastic optimization problem, developing algorithms that avoid matrix inversions and mini-batches.
result Rates of convergence of order O(logT/T)\mathcal{O}(\log T/T) and O(1/T1ι)\mathcal{O}(1/T^{1-ι}) for linear models.

Develops methods to identify and estimate causal effects with instrumental variables.

problem Causal inference with confounded treatment assignment and unobserved variables.
method General nonparametric causal framework, debiased machine learning, semiparametric theory.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for average treatment effect.

A new algorithm uses IVs to learn optimal policies from observational data.

problem Learning optimal policies from unobserved variable confounded data.
method IV-aided Value Iteration (IVVI) algorithm based on conditional moment restrictions.
result First provably efficient algorithm for instrument-aided offline RL.

Bayesian method for robust causal inference using many-dimensional instrumental variables.

problem Intractable model space and uncertainty in selecting valid instrumental variables.
method Bayesian model averaging over promising instrumental variable models with weaker assumptions.
result Efficient and robust causal effect estimation in many-dimensional data.

Deep learning for integrating diverse clinical measurements.

problem Combining data from different measurement instruments in longitudinal clinical registries.
method Domain adaptation using deep learning for mapping items from different instruments.
result Domain adaptation can recover latent trajectories even with limited data and misalignment.

This paper theoretically explains and validates a deep neural network approach to IV estimation.

problem Endogeneity issues in empirical applications, especially in the presence of omitted variables, measurement error, or simultaneous causality.
method A two-stage estimator using deep neural networks in a linear instrumental variables model, with a latent structural assumption on the reduced form equation.
result The second-stage estimator achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound, with a smaller estimation error and requiring weaker conditions on the smoothness of optimal instruments.

Proposes TSCI method to infer causal effects with weak or invalid instruments using machine learning.

problem Causal inference with weak or invalid instrumental variables.
method Two-stage curvature identification (TSCI) using machine learning.
result Asymptotically unbiased and Gaussian estimator for causal effects.

GIV methodology extends instrumental variable estimation for high-dimensional data.

problem Estimating structural parameters in high-dimensional models with endogeneity and latent factors.
method Extends GIV methodology to large N and T, treats factors and loadings as unknown, and uses additional instruments for efficiency.
result Efficiency gains and negligible sampling errors in estimated instrument and factors.

Valid causal inference with invalid instruments using majority or modal valid relationships.

problem Estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding and invalid instruments.
method Ensemble of instrumental variable estimators to estimate the modal prediction, achieving accurate estimates of conditional average treatment effects.
result Valid causal inference can be achieved with a majority or modal valid instrument-response relationship.

New method for personalized pricing using invalid instrumental variables.

problem Personalized pricing under endogeneity with limited standard methods.
method PRINT method for continuous treatment, solving conditional moment restrictions.
result Established optimal pricing strategy under endogeneity with invalid instrumental variables.

Estimates long-term effects using past experiments as instruments with many weak instruments.

problem Estimating long-term causal effects with limited short-term outcomes and many weak instruments.
method Nonparametric instrumental variable inference with many weak instruments, using past experiments as instruments.
result Automatic debiased machine learning estimators for linear functionals of the structural function and its minimum-norm projection are efficient in the many-weak-instruments regime.

Proposes a new estimator for weak instrumental variables in panel data models.

problem Weak instrumental variables due to ignored nonlinearities in panel data.
method Triangular simultaneous equation model with a nonlinear reduced form equation and a control function approach using Super Learner.
result The proposed SLCF estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal, achieving a parametric rate of convergence.

Develops methods for causal inference in compositional data using instrumental variables.

problem Interpreting summary statistics like diversity indices as causal effects in compositional data.
method Statistical data transformations and regression techniques tailored for compositional data.
result Advantages and limitations of the proposed methods demonstrated on synthetic and real microbiome data.

ZNet learns instrumental representations from covariates for causal inference.

problem Lack of valid instruments in observational studies.
method Representation learning approach that constructs instrumental representations from observed covariates.
result ZNet enables IV-based estimation without explicit instruments.

The paper addresses statistical estimation in MDPs with confounders using instrumental variables.

problem Statistical estimation of value functions in MDPs with unobservable confounders.
method Two-stage estimator based on instrumental variables for confounded linear MDPs.
result Established statistical properties of the two-stage estimator, including error bounds and asymptotic normality.

Researchers develop methods for causal inference with imperfect instrumental variables.

problem Quantifying cause and effect relationships with imperfect instrumental variables.
method Established a quantitative relationship between violations of instrumental inequalities and minimal measurement dependence, providing adapted inequalities valid in the presence of relaxed measurement dependence.
result Adapted inequalities for average causal effect in instrumental scenarios with binary outcomes, addressing violations of instrumental inequalities.

Paper proposes CIV estimator for categorical instruments in small sample settings.

problem Estimation with categorical instruments in settings with few observations per category.
method CIV estimator leveraging regularization assumption for latent categorical variable.
result CIV estimator is asymptotically normal, efficient, and semiparametrically efficient under homoskedasticity.

Study on estimating causal effects with limited data and multiple environments.

problem Estimating causal effects under hidden confounding with unpaired data and sparse effects.
method Instrumental variable (IV) regression with cross-fold sample splitting and 1\ell_1-regularized estimation.
result Proposed GMM-type estimator is consistent as the number of environments grows.

Proposes a method to estimate treatment effects using instruments.

problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data is challenging when unconfoundedness is violated.
method Leverages instruments to estimate bounds on conditional average treatment effect (CATE) through a mapping to a discrete representation space and a two-step procedure.
result Demonstrates theoretical validity and reduced estimation variance in finite-sample settings.

The paper tackles temporal coverage bias in financial panel data, proposing a structuring framework to correct for incomplete histories.

problem Incomplete histories of financial instruments lead to biased panel data.
method Formalizes the problem and proposes a coverage-aware structuring framework using structured metadata and an availability matrix.
result The framework reveals substantial distortions in return dynamics and volatility when naive temporal alignment is used.

New method identifies valid IVs for bi-directional MR with invalid instruments.

problem Estimating causal effects from observational data with invalid instruments and unmeasured confounding.
method Theoretical investigation and cluster fusion-like method to discover valid IV sets.
result Theoretical demonstration and experimental validation of the method's effectiveness.

New method uses few instruments to estimate complex causal effects.

problem Estimating causal effects with limited instruments in high-dimensional settings.
method Sequentially selects and combines instruments to estimate the treatment effect.
result Can reliably recover the treatment effect's projection onto the instrumented subspace.

A new boosting method corrects endogeneity bias in instrumental variable regression.

problem Endogeneity bias in instrumental variable regression.
method Causal Gradient Boosting (boostIV) that builds on gradient boosting algorithm.
result boostIV is consistent and performs well in finite samples compared to other methods.

Proposes a robust IV estimator using optimal transport for corrupted or adversarial data.

problem Lack of robustness in traditional IV estimators for corrupted or adversarial data.
method Integrates data-derivative information through optimal transport to address geometric aspects of data.
result Improves robustness against data corruption and adversarial attacks.

MISTR improves HTE estimation in survival data with heavy censoring and instrumental variables.

problem Estimating HTE in survival data with censoring and unobserved confounders.
method MISTR uses recursively imputed survival trees to handle censoring and instrumental variables.
result MISTR outperforms existing methods under heavy censoring and instrumental variable settings.

We link disjoint longitudinal data for rare disease patients using latent representations and mixed-effects regression.

problem Analyzing treatment switches in rare diseases with limited data and changing measurement instruments.
method We embed item values into a shared latent space using variational autoencoders and apply mixed-effects regression to quantify treatment effects.
result Our approach allows for statistical inference and quantifies the impact of treatment switches in spinal muscular atrophy.

Combines IV and observational data to estimate CATEs with low compliance and unobserved confounding.

problem Estimating CATEs in personalized medicine and analytics with observational data and weak IVs.
method Two-stage framework: first learns biased CATEs from observational data, then corrects using IV data.
result Effective in estimating CATEs with low compliance and unobserved confounding.

The paper shows how instrumental variables can help identify sparse causal effects in linear models.

problem Identifying sparse causal effects in linear models with limited instruments.
method Conditions and graphical criteria for identifiability, spaceIV estimator.
result Causal effects can be identified from observed distributions with sparse effects and limited instruments.

Spectral feature learning improves IV regression for causal effect estimation.

problem Estimating causal effects in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Two-stage least squares estimator based on spectral features.
result Performance of the method depends on strong spectral alignment and slow eigenvalue decay.

DIV estimates entire interventional distribution using generative modeling.

problem Estimating entire interventional distribution in presence of unmeasured confounding.
method Distributional Instrumental Variable (DIV) using generative modeling.
result DIV identifies causal effects under 'under-identified' cases, improving over existing IV approaches.

Instrumental variable (IV) regression is a strategy for learning causal relationships in observational data. If measurements of input X and output Y are confounded, the causal relationship can nonetheless be identified if an instrumental variable Z is available that influences X directly, but is conditionally independe…

2019-06-01abs ↗pdf ↗

New methods correct for time dependencies in IV regression for time series data.

problem Inferring causal effects from time series data with unobserved confounders.
method Proposes new methods for consistent estimation of causal effects in time series models using nuisance covariates and graph marginalization.
result Identifies and corrects for dependencies in the past, leading to consistent estimation of causal effects.