We study hedging and pricing of unattainable contingent claims in a non-Markovian regime-switching financial model. Our financial market consists of a bank account and a risky asset whose dynamics are driven by a Brownian motion and a multivariate counting process with stochastic intensities. The interest rate, drift, …
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48 results for “instantaneous variance”
New model shows VIX futures are more expensive than local volatility model suggests.
problem VIX futures pricing under local volatility model is incorrect.
method Developed a continuous stochastic volatility model to show VIX futures are more expensive than local volatility model.
result Inversion of convex ordering between local and stochastic variances observed in SPX market for short maturities.
We provide a simple explicit estimator for discretely observed Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models, prove rigorously consistency and asymptotic normality based on the single assumption that all moments of the stationary distribution of the variance process are finite, and give explicit expressions for the asymptotic …
We introduce an affine extension of the Heston model where the instantaneous variance process contains a jump part driven by -stable processes with . In this framework, we examine the implied volatility and its asymptotic behaviors for both asset and variance options. Furthermore, we examine the jump clus…
New model for pricing volatility derivatives considering rough volatility and jumps.
problem Modeling instantaneous volatility with rough volatility and jumps.
method Generalized fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with Lévy subordinator and sinusoidal-composite Lévy process.
result Pricing-hedging formulae for power-type derivatives on average forward variance are derived.
It is known that the implied volatility skew of FX options demonstrates a stochastic behavior which is called stochastic skew. In this paper we create stochastic skew by assuming the spot/instantaneous variance correlation to be stochastic. Accordingly, we consider a class of SLV models with stochastic correlation wher…
We introduce a generalisation of the well-known ARCH process, widely used for generating uncorrelated stochastic time series with long-term non-Gaussian distributions and long-lasting correlations in the (instantaneous) standard deviation exhibiting a clustering profile. Specifically, inspired by the fact that in a var…
Causal inference uses observations to infer the causal structure of the data generating system. We study a class of functional models that we call Time Series Models with Independent Noise (TiMINo). These models require independent residual time series, whereas traditional methods like Granger causality exploit the var…
A new model prices assets considering market microstructure effects.
problem Including market microstructure effects in dynamic asset pricing.
method Discrete binary tree model with history-dependent underlying security prices.
result The model preserves historical price dynamics and is market-complete, arbitrage-free.
Develops a novel framework for pricing variance swaps in multi-asset stochastic volatility models.
problem Pricing variance swaps in multi-asset stochastic volatility models.
method Determinant-based instantaneous generalized variance, Heston and BNS stochastic volatility frameworks.
result Analytical pricing expressions for multi-asset Heston and BNS formulations.
In this paper we apply Markovian approximation of the fractional Brownian motion (BM), known as the Dobric-Ojeda (DO) process, to the fractional stochastic volatility model where the instantaneous variance is modelled by a lognormal process with drift and fractional diffusion. Since the DO process is a semi-martingale,…
We investigate the joint dynamics of spot and implied volatility from an empirical perspective. We focus on the equity market with the SPX Index our underlying of choice. Using only observable quantities, we extract the instantaneous variance curves implied by the market and study their daily variations jointly with sp…
Path-dependent PDEs model VIX and Realised Variance options.
problem Modeling volatility derivatives with path-dependence.
method Continuous stochastic volatility model with Gaussian Volterra process, proving well-posedness of PDEs.
result Formulae for greeks and implied volatility provided, finite-dimensional pricing PDEs obtained in Markovian models.
Pseudo-diffusions and Quadratic term structure modelscond-mat.stat-mech
The non-gaussianity of processes observed in financial markets and relatively good performance of gaussian models can be reconciled by replacing the Brownian motion with Levy processes whose Levy densities decay as exp(-lambda|x|) or faster, where lambda>0 is large. This leads to asymptotic pricing models. The leading …
We prove uniqueness of instantaneously complete Ricci flows on surfaces. We do not require any bounds of any form on the curvature or its growth at infinity, nor on the metric or its growth (other than that implied by instantaneous completeness). Coupled with earlier work, particularly [23, 11], this completes the well…
Classical solvable stochastic volatility models (SVM) use a CEV process for instantaneous variance where the CEV parameter takes just few values: 0 - the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, 1/2 - the Heston (or square root) process, 1- GARCH, and 3/2 - the 3/2 model. Some other models were discovered in \cite{Labordere2009…
New framework IDOL identifies latent causal processes with instantaneous relations from time series data.
problem Identifying latent causal processes with instantaneous relations from time series data.
method Sparse influence constraint and variational inference architecture with sparsity regularization.
result Our method can identify latent causal processes with instantaneous relations.
Develops large-sample theory for non-stationary source separation.
problem Lack of large-sample results for non-stationary source separation methods.
method Large-sample theory for NSS-JD method under specific assumptions.
result Consistency of unmixing estimator and its convergence to Gaussian distribution.
This paper studies the concept of instantaneous arbitrage in continuous time and its relation to the instantaneous CAPM. Absence of instantaneous arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of a trading strategy which satisfies the CAPM beta pricing relation in place of the market. Thus the difference between the arbitrag…
New formula for instantaneous frequency in unbalanced systems.
problem Estimating frequency in unbalanced electrical systems.
method Utilizes affine differential geometry to link frequency and voltage derivatives.
result Proposes a new formula for instantaneous frequency estimation.
The ARCH process (R. F. Engle, 1982) constitutes a paradigmatic generator of stochastic time series with time-dependent variance like it appears on a wide broad of systems besides economics in which ARCH was born. Although the ARCH process captures the so-called "volatility clustering" and the asymptotic power-law prob…
Most of the empirical studies on stochastic volatility dynamics favor the 3/2 specification over the square-root (CIR) process in the Heston model. In the context of option pricing, the 3/2 stochastic volatility model is reported to be able to capture the volatility skew evolution better than the Heston model. In this …
iCITRIS learns causal variables from interactive systems with instantaneous effects.
problem Identifying causal variables from temporal sequences with instantaneous effects.
method iCITRIS method for causal representation learning that handles instantaneous effects in intervened temporal sequences.
result iCITRIS accurately identifies causal variables and their causal graph from three interactive system datasets.
Study compares Fourier estimators to mitigate asynchrony effects in finance.
problem Impact of asynchrony on instantaneous financial estimates.
method Comparison of Malliavin-Mancino and Cuchiero-Teichmann estimators.
result Malliavin-Mancino estimator produces more stable estimates under asynchrony.
New algorithm resists corruption in linear contextual bandits.
problem Adversarial corruption in linear contextual bandits.
method Variance-aware algorithm with multi-level partition and adaptive confidence sets.
result Regret bound of .
Following closely the construction of the Schrodinger bridge, we build a new class of Stochastic Volatility Models exactly calibrated to market instruments such as for example Vanillas, options on realized variance or VIX options. These models differ strongly from the well-known local stochastic volatility models, in p…
The Ricci flow preserves product structures with instantaneous curvature bounds.
problem Preserving product structures under Ricci flow with curvature constraints.
method Proving a constant ε exists such that if a solution splits as a product at time 0 and has bounded curvature, it splits for all time.
result A constant ε exists depending on dimension such that if a solution splits as a product at time 0 and has curvature bounded by ε/t, it splits for all time.
A new model adapts Hurst parameter in real-time for volatility forecasting.
problem Capturing volatility dynamics and clustering in financial markets.
method Rough Bergomi model with EWMA-driven time-dependent Hurst parameter.
result Empirical validation shows superior performance in diverse asset classes.
Paper revises power theory using classical mechanics concepts.
problem Clarifying instantaneous power definitions for circuit elements.
method Defines power using classical mechanics concepts like velocity and momentum.
result General and compact expression for inductance, capacitance, and resistance powers.
This paper presents a novel one-factor stochastic volatility model where the instantaneous volatility of the asset log-return is a diffusion with a quadratic drift and a linear dispersion function. The instantaneous volatility mean reverts around a constant level, with a speed of mean reversion that is affine in the in…
Study cryptocurrency price dynamics using adaptive EMD and spectral analysis.
problem Analyze the time-varying volatility of cryptocurrency prices.
method Adaptive complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (ACE-EMD) and Hilbert spectral analysis.
result Reveal the properties of various timescales in cryptocurrency price dynamics.
Modeling continuous movement of entities in latent space for interaction timing.
problem Analyzing timing and frequency of instantaneous interactions.
method Latent position model with continuous trajectories.
result Individual trajectories estimated from interaction data.
Paper solves a complex stopping problem using regularization and HJB equations.
problem Time-inconsistent mean-variance optimal stopping problem
method Vanishing regularization method to derive HJB equations and prove existence of solutions
result Formally recovers variational inequalities for original problem
We tackle the calibration of the so-called Stochastic-Local Volatility (SLV) model. This is the class of financial models that combines the local and stochastic volatility features and has been subject of the attention by many researchers recently. More precisely, given a local volatility surface and a choice of stocha…
In this paper we want to exploit further the semi-discrete method appeared in Halidias and Stamatiou (2015). We are interested in the numerical solution of mean reverting CEV processes that appear in financial mathematics models and are described as non negative solutions of certain stochastic differential equations wi…
Paper introduces REED for noncoherent OTA-FL, reducing latency without phase alignment.
problem Noncoherent OTA-FL requires signed model updates without phase alignment.
method Introduces REED for continuous signed aggregation using resource-element energy difference.
result Exact variance laws for REED and chip-diverse extension in Rayleigh fading.
Working on different aspects of algorithmic trading we empirically discovered a new market invariant. It links together the volatility of the instrument with its traded volume, the average spread and the volume in the order book. The invariant has been tested on different markets and different asset classes. In all cas…
Symmetric positive semi-definite Fourier estimator of instantaneous variance-covariance matrixstat.ME
Paper proposes a new covariance estimator ensuring positive semi-definite matrices.
problem Estimating spot covariance matrices while maintaining positive semi-definiteness.
method Modification of the Fourier covariance estimator with a symmetric positive semi-definite constraint.
result The estimator is consistent and produces accurate positive semi-definite matrices.
We consider the optimal investment problem when the traded asset may default, causing a jump in its price. For an investor with constant absolute risk aversion, we compute indifference prices for defaultable bonds, as well as a price for dynamic protection against default. For the latter problem, our work complements S…
Collective behaviours taking place in financial markets reveal strongly correlated states especially during a crisis period. A natural hypothesis is that trend reversals are also driven by mutual influences between the different stock exchanges. Using a maximum entropy approach, we find coordinated behaviour during tre…
A new method improves density ratio estimation with fewer function evaluations.
problem Stable and accurate estimation of density ratios with high variance issues.
method Diffusion Secant Alignment for Score-Based Density Ratio Estimation (ISA-DRE)
result ISA-DRE achieves comparable or superior results with fewer function evaluations.
The proposed model modifies option pricing formulas for the basic case of log-normal probability distribution providing correspondence to formulated criteria of efficiency and completeness. The model is self-calibrating by historic volatility data; it maintains the constant expected value at maturity of the hedged inst…
Study optimal execution in a transient price impact model with multiple traders.
problem Optimal execution among multiple traders with transient price impact.
method Analyzed -player optimal execution games in an Obizhaeva--Wang model with and without regularization. Derived equilibrium solutions and explained their behavior.
result Existence of equilibrium restored with a specific time-dependent cost on block trades, and equilibrium is tractable.
Estimates chirp signal frequencies using probabilistic models.
problem Estimating instantaneous frequencies of chirp signals when true forms are unknown.
method Non-linear Gaussian processes and stochastic filters/smothers for posterior estimation.
result The method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world datasets.
A new principle minimizes residual and introduces momentum to improve PDE solution dynamics.
problem Ill-conditioning in Dirac-Frenkel residual minimization leads to non-unique parameter dynamics.
method Introduces a history variable (momentum) to select better-conditioned parameter velocities, preserving residual minimization while promoting smooth parameter evolutions.
result The approach leads to increased robustness in singular and near-singular PDE solution regimes.
New model identifies regimes in non-stationary data.
problem Identifying latent regimes in non-stationary systems with instantaneous effects.
method Identifiable Markov Switching Models with exponential family noise.
result Established identifiability of latent regimes and causal structures.
Unified framework for optimal liquidation with small market impact and semimartingale strategies.
problem Optimal liquidation under small market impact and portfolio liquidation.
method Semimartingale strategies and convergence results for BSDEs with singular terminal conditions.
result Unified framework for embedding two common liquidation models and microscopic foundation for semimartingale strategies.
To convert standard Brownian motion into a positive process, Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is widely used. We generalize this positive process by introducing an asymmetry parameter which describes the instantaneous volatility whenever the process reaches a new low. For our new process, …