arXiv research

iCITRIS learns causal variables from interactive systems with instantaneous effects.

Study compares Fourier estimators to mitigate asynchrony effects in finance.

New model identifies regimes in non-stationary data.

New framework IDOL identifies latent causal processes with instantaneous relations from time series data.

An average instantaneous cross-correlation function is introduced to quantify the interaction of the financial market of a specific time. Based on the daily data of the American and Chinese stock markets, memory effect of the average instantaneous cross-correlations is investigated over different price return time inte…

We explore the effect of past market movements on the instantaneous correlations between assets within the futures market. Quantifying this effect is of interest to estimate and manage the risk associated to portfolios of futures in a non-stationary context. We apply and extend a previously reported method called the P…

We prove uniqueness of instantaneously complete Ricci flows on surfaces. We do not require any bounds of any form on the curvature or its growth at infinity, nor on the metric or its growth (other than that implied by instantaneous completeness). Coupled with earlier work, particularly [23, 11], this completes the well…

A new model prices assets considering market microstructure effects.

This paper studies the concept of instantaneous arbitrage in continuous time and its relation to the instantaneous CAPM. Absence of instantaneous arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of a trading strategy which satisfies the CAPM beta pricing relation in place of the market. Thus the difference between the arbitrag…

New formula for instantaneous frequency in unbalanced systems.

Causal inference uses observations to infer the causal structure of the data generating system. We study a class of functional models that we call Time Series Models with Independent Noise (TiMINo). These models require independent residual time series, whereas traditional methods like Granger causality exploit the var…

The Ricci flow preserves product structures with instantaneous curvature bounds.

Paper revises power theory using classical mechanics concepts.

Recently Carr and Wu (2004, 2005) and also Huang and Wu (2004) show that most stochastic processes used in traditional option pricing models can be cast as special cases of time-changed Lévy processes. In particular these are models which can be tailored to exhibit correlated jumps in both the log price of assets and t…

This paper presents a novel one-factor stochastic volatility model where the instantaneous volatility of the asset log-return is a diffusion with a quadratic drift and a linear dispersion function. The instantaneous volatility mean reverts around a constant level, with a speed of mean reversion that is affine in the in…

Study cryptocurrency price dynamics using adaptive EMD and spectral analysis.

Modeling continuous movement of entities in latent space for interaction timing.

We study hedging and pricing of unattainable contingent claims in a non-Markovian regime-switching financial model. Our financial market consists of a bank account and a risky asset whose dynamics are driven by a Brownian motion and a multivariate counting process with stochastic intensities. The interest rate, drift, …

Rhino learns causal relationships from time series data with history-dependent noise.

Aggregation distorts causal discovery results but recovery is possible with partial linearity or prior.

Working on different aspects of algorithmic trading we empirically discovered a new market invariant. It links together the volatility of the instrument with its traded volume, the average spread and the volume in the order book. The invariant has been tested on different markets and different asset classes. In all cas…

Study high-frequency trading game with price impact, finding unique equilibrium.

Collective behaviours taking place in financial markets reveal strongly correlated states especially during a crisis period. A natural hypothesis is that trend reversals are also driven by mutual influences between the different stock exchanges. Using a maximum entropy approach, we find coordinated behaviour during tre…

Study optimal execution in a transient price impact model with multiple traders.

Exploration is an extremely challenging problem in reinforcement learning, especially in high dimensional state and action spaces and when only sparse rewards are available. Effective representations can indicate which components of the state are task relevant and thus reduce the dimensionality of the space to explore.…

A new network log-ARCH model improves stock market volatility forecasting.

Estimates chirp signal frequencies using probabilistic models.

A new principle minimizes residual and introduces momentum to improve PDE solution dynamics.

We investigate the joint dynamics of spot and implied volatility from an empirical perspective. We focus on the equity market with the SPX Index our underlying of choice. Using only observable quantities, we extract the instantaneous variance curves implied by the market and study their daily variations jointly with sp…

Unified framework for optimal liquidation with small market impact and semimartingale strategies.

To convert standard Brownian motion $Z$ into a positive process, Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) $e^{βZ_t}, β>0$ is widely used. We generalize this positive process by introducing an asymmetry parameter $α\geq 0$ which describes the instantaneous volatility whenever the process reaches a new low. For our new process, …

We study a transformation of metric measure spaces introduced by Gigli and Mantegazza consisting in replacing the original distance with the length distance induced by the transport distance between heat kernel measures. We study the smoothing effect of this procedure in two important examples. Firstly, we show that in…

Paper revisits five IF paradoxes using differential geometry.

We develop a theory for valuing non-diversifiable mortality risk in an incomplete market. We do this by assuming that the company issuing a mortality-contingent claim requires compensation for this risk in the form of a pre-specified instantaneous Sharpe ratio. We apply our method to value life annuities. One result of…

We use a continuous version of the standard deviation premium principle for pricing in incomplete equity markets by assuming that the investor issuing an unhedgeable derivative security requires compensation for this risk in the form of a pre-specified instantaneous Sharpe ratio. First, we apply our method to price opt…

A theoretical framework that supports automated construction of dynamic prime models purely from experimental time series data has been invented and developed, which can automatically generate (construct) data-driven models of any time series data in seconds. This has resulted in the formulation and formalisation of ne…

HHT feature generation enhances financial time series forecasting.

SVAR-LiNGAM reveals causal order in crypto-asset markets.

A new tree model, GRST, improves option pricing without log-normality assumptions.

We study the Yamabe flow on a Riemannian manifold of dimension $m\geq3$ minus a closed submanifold of dimension $n$ and prove that there exists an instantaneously complete solution if and only if $n>\frac{m-2}{2}$. In the remaining cases $0\leq n\leq\frac{m-2}{2}$ including the borderline case, we show that the removab…

Study shows gaps in Bitcoin order book are linked to returns but only in the short term.

This paper introduces a new metric, ULI, for RL that ensures both cumulative and instantaneous performance.

We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model based on the CIR/Heston volatility process that incorporates seasonality and the Samuelson effect. First, we give conditions on the seasonal term under which the corresponding volatility factor is well-defined. These conditions appear to be rather mild. Second, we…

We propose a stochastic process for stock movements that, with just one source of Brownian noise, has an instantaneous volatility that rises from a type of statistical feedback across many time scales. This results in a stationary non-Gaussian process which captures many features observed in time series of real stock r…

In this manuscript we present a comprehensive study on the multifractal properties of high-frequency price fluctuations and instantaneous volatility of the equities that compose Dow Jones Industrial Average. The analysis consists about quantification of dependence and non-Gaussianity on the multifractal character of fi…

This paper is concerned with the estimation of the volatility process in a stochastic volatility model of the following form: $dX_t=a_tdt+σ_tdW_t$, where $X$ denotes the log-price and $σ$ is a càdlàg semi-martingale. In the spirit of a series of recent works on the estimation of the cumulated volatility, we here focus …

We present a new volatility model, simple to implement, that includes a leverage effect whose return-volatility correlation function fits to empirical observations. This model is able to capture both the "retarded effect" induced by the specific risk, and the "panic effect", which occurs whenever systematic risk become…

We develop a theory for pricing non-diversifiable mortality risk in an incomplete market. We do this by assuming that the company issuing a mortality-contingent claim requires compensation for this risk in the form of a pre-specified instantaneous Sharpe ratio. We prove that our ensuing valuation formula satisfies a nu…