This paper uses information theory to improve risk modeling in big data.
problem Insufficient application of information theory in actuarial science.
method Explores information theory to uncover performance limits of insurance big data systems.
result Guidance for risk modeling and actuarial pricing systems.
Modeling informed trading with risk-averse market makers.
problem Understanding informed trading and its impact on market liquidity and risk premia.
method Connections between optimal transport theory and Kyle's model, including new characterizations of profits and duality.
result Liquidity is lower, assets exhibit short-term reversals, and risk premia depend on market maker inventories, which are mean reverting.
Optimizes information acquisition to reduce estimation risk and maximize utility.
problem Estimation risk in investor decision-making.
method Derives closed-form value functions using CARA and CRRA utility functions, employs variational methods to explore optimal acquisition.
result Acquiring information earlier is more valuable in reducing estimation risk and achieving higher utility.
Investigates a Kyle model with imperfect information and risk aversion.
problem Tackles a Kyle model with imperfect information and risk-averse informed traders.
method Solves an optimal transport problem and a filtering problem under specific measures.
result Constructs an equilibrium for the Gaussian Kyle model with imperfect information and risk aversion.
The paper analyzes extreme risk measures with limited distributional information.
problem Investigating risk measures under partial knowledge of distribution moments and shape.
method Employing probability inequalities and modified Schwarz inequality to derive bounds on distortion risk measures.
result Unified framework for calculating best- and worst-case scenarios of distortion risk measures.
The study examines how formal index insurance compares to informal risk sharing in managing natural disasters.
problem The challenges of natural disasters and the effectiveness of index insurance in risk management.
method A three-strategy evolutionary game model to analyze the competitive relationship between formal index insurance, informal risk sharing, and non-insurance.
result Basis risk and loss ratio significantly impact the adoption rate of index insurance, with different strategies preferred under varying conditions.
This paper presents an optimal allocation problem in a financial market with one risk-free and one risky asset, when the market is driven by a stochastic market price of risk. We solve the problem in continuous time, for an investor with a Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) utility, under two scenarios: when the ma…
The paper examines how markets can anticipate and react to arbitrage opportunities, revealing biases and risks.
problem The tension between no arbitrage, information efficiency, and risk anticipation in markets.
method Continuous time analysis with model- or event-risk, allowing pre-horizon risk-resolution and Risk-Neutral Equivalent pricing.
result Optimised trading can suppress the anticipation of predictable risk-outcomes, creating an apparent Status Quo Bias.
New measures generalize existing ones, linking information and risk.
problem Linking information measures and risk in statistical decision problems.
method Introducing new families of divergence measures and deriving an information processing equality.
result Extension of variational φ-divergence representation to multiple distributions. Optimal insurance contracts are designed to screen risk preferences and risk types under asymmetric information.
problem Designing optimal insurance contracts under asymmetric information and risk types.
method Constructing a menu of contracts that maximizes mean-variance utilities, subject to truth-telling constraints.
result Equilibrium contracts exhibit nonlinear pricing with decreasing risk loadings, inducing self-selection.
Novel convex risk measures aggregate multiple uncertain sources for insurance firms.
problem Managing risk from multiple uncertain sources in insurance.
method Proposes convex risk measures based on Fréchet mean.
result Allows for robust risk characterization and closed-form expressions.
Lower bounds on Bayes risk for realizable models derived using information theory.
problem Deriving lower bounds on Bayes risk for realizable machine learning models.
method Information-theoretic analysis using rate-distortion theory and mutual information.
result Lower bounds on Bayes risk for realizable models, matching known bounds up to logarithmic factors.
ADGAN improves risk tolerance prediction by aligning cross-domain data.
problem Lack of professional knowledge and domain-specific models in risk tolerance studies.
method Asymmetric cross-Domain Generative Adversarial Network (ADGAN) for domain scale inequality.
result ADGAN better handles class imbalance and unqualified data than state-of-the-art methods.
The paper explores the information-theoretic nature of excess risk in machine learning.
problem Understanding the excess risk in machine learning models.
method Formulates the minimax excess risk as a zero-sum game and modifies it to allow swapping of the order of play.
result Proves that under certain conditions, the duality gap is zero, allowing for the application of Bayesian results to provide bounds on minimax excess risk.
The paper analyzes worst-case distortion risk metrics and weighted entropy under partial information.
problem Analyzing worst-case distortion risk metrics and weighted entropy with limited information.
method General distributions, partial information (mean and variance), various entropies and risk measures.
result Provides worst-case results for distortion risk metrics and weighted entropy.
Geometric structure reveals optimal investment and hedging products.
problem Optimal design of investment and hedging products.
method Investigation of geometric structure in risks and returns using a simple formula.
result Duality between hedging and investment with geometric interpretation of rationality.
Regulation and risk management in banks depend on underlying risk measures. In general this is the only purpose that is seen for risk measures. In this paper we suggest that the reporting of risk measures can be used to determine the loss distribution function for a financial entity. We demonstrate that a lack of suffi…
Paper derives best- and worst-case GlueVaR measures with incomplete data.
problem Risk measurement with limited information and shape constraints.
method Unified framework based on partial distribution information and shape properties.
result Characterization of extremal GlueVaR distributions with convex envelopes.
This study improves tail risk forecasting by integrating overnight information into semi-parametric models.
problem Improving tail risk forecasting in financial markets.
method Proposes RES-CAViaR-oc models combining overnight return and realized volatility, using Bayesian estimation.
result Realized volatility and overnight return significantly improve tail risk forecasting.
Paper proposes a method to evaluate SME credit risk using meta paths.
problem Evaluate credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises with limited data.
method Exploits the representative power of information networks and meta paths to infer SME financial status.
result Meta path feature effectively identifies SMEs with credit risks.
Predictions are issued on the basis of certain information. If the forecasting mechanisms are correctly specified, a larger amount of available information should lead to better forecasts. For point forecasts, we show how the effect of increasing the information set can be quantified by using strictly consistent scorin…
Study of a risk-averse informed trader in a multi-asset market with non-Gaussian prices.
problem Existence of equilibrium in a multi-asset market with non-Gaussian prices and a risk-averse informed trader.
method Constructed equilibrium using Fokker-Planck equation and coupled partial differential equations with an optimal transport constraint.
result Equilibrium exists in a market with multiple assets and non-Gaussian prices.
Market strategies minimize Fisher information to minimize risk.
problem Applying minimum Fisher information principle to market dynamics.
method Analytical extension to quantum harmonic oscillator eigenstates and Gibbs distribution.
result Minimizing Fisher information reduces information and risk.
The paper applies information theory to financial markets, improving risk management and asset allocation.
problem Improving risk management and asset allocation in financial markets.
method Information-theoretic measures (entropy, mutual information, etc.) applied to financial time series.
result Normalized mutual information (NMI) is a powerful measure of temporal dependence in financial markets.
Study improves summarization reliability in risky scenarios.
problem Reliability of automatic summarization in high-risk contexts.
method Conditional generation with Bayesian inference and entropy regularization.
result Significant improvement in robustness and reliability of summarization.
Unified framework connects credit risk metrics with information theory.
problem Disconnection between industry-standard metrics and statistical theory.
method Unified information-theoretic framework, proving IV equals PSI, deriving standard errors, formalizing trade-off, automated binning with XGBoost.
result Unified framework connects IV and PSI, providing statistical foundation for metrics.
Paper proposes robust risk measures for non-negative risks with partial information.
problem Tackles robustness of distortion risk measures under distributional uncertainty.
method Introduces new uncertainty sets and derives closed-form expressions for risk maximization.
result Derives closed-form expressions for risk maximization over uncertainty sets.
Researchers infer firm-level supply chain networks from sector-level data to assess systemic risk.
problem Estimating systemic risk in economic systems using firm-level data.
method Maximum-entropy algorithms applied to input-output tables and firm-level aggregate output data.
result The most realistic systemic risk content is retrieved by models incorporating disaggregated firm-specific inputs by sector.
Study on hedging and valuation of basis risk in incomplete markets with partial information.
problem Hedging and valuation of European and American claims in an incomplete market with correlated assets and partial information.
method Stochastic control and partial information scenario, forward indifference valuation, dual representation, PDE approach.
result Derivation of optimal hedging strategy and forward indifference price representation for claims.
Brokers and an informed trader compete for liquidity, affecting trading costs and inventory risk.
problem How brokers and an informed trader manage liquidity and trading costs.
method Sequential Stackelberg game, solving for trading strategies, numerical solutions.
result Equilibrium strategies and liquidity prices determined, not Pareto efficient.
As financial instruments grow in complexity more and more information is neglected by risk optimization practices. This brings down a curtain of opacity on the origination of risk, that has been one of the main culprits in the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. We discuss how the loss of transparency may be quantified …
We introduce an interactive market setup with sequential auctions where agents receive variegated signals with a known deadline. The effects of differential information and mutual learning on the allocation of overall profit \& loss (P\&L) and the pace of price discovery are analysed. We characterise the signal-based e…
Study proposes a multimodal model for cardiovascular risk prediction using EHRs.
problem Lack of comprehensive risk prediction from EHRs due to unstructured text.
method Proposes a multimodal BiLSTM model integrating structured and unstructured EHR data.
result Proposed BiLSTM model outperforms other DNN architectures in cardiovascular risk prediction.
The paper calculates bounds for risk metrics and entropies under partial information constraints.
problem Analyzing risk metrics and entropies for unimodal, symmetric distributions with limited information.
method Develops lower and upper bounds for worst-case distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy for unimodal, symmetric distributions with known mean and variance.
result Sharp upper bounds for distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy for symmetric distributions.
A new risk measure framework captures multivariate risk in banking.
problem Scalar risk measures fail to capture the multivariate nature of risk in banking.
method A novel multivariate risk measure framework based on the Magnitude-Propensity approach.
result The proposed framework provides a more comprehensive characterization of extreme events.
In this paper we attempt to introduce an econophysics approach to evaluate some aspects of the risks in financial markets. For this purpose, the thermodynamical methods and statistical physics results about entropy and equilibrium states in the physical systems are used. Some considerations on economic value and financ…
Study excess risk in statistical inference with transformations.
problem Excess risk in estimating random variables from feature vectors and transformations.
method Characterize lossless transformations, develop test statistics, and information-theoretic bounds.
result Strongly consistent partitioning test statistic for lossless transformations.
Proposes a framework to adjust quotes for informational risk in markets with informed traders and price-revealing quotes.
problem Informational risk in markets with informed traders and price-revealing quotes.
method Proposes a tractable framework to adjust quotes considering adverse selection and price reading.
result Market makers can adjust their quotes to better manage informational risk.
This paper proposes a new geometric framework for asset pricing.
problem The asymmetry between risk-neutral and physical measures in asset pricing.
method Information geometry, focusing on the relativity of probabilistic reference frames.
result Unified explanation for price fluctuations, event-driven behavior, and risk premia.
This paper investigates the impact of dark pools on price discovery (the efficiency of prices on stock exchanges to aggregate information). Assets are traded in either an exchange or a dark pool, with the dark pool offering better prices but lower execution rates. Informed traders receive noisy and heterogeneous signal…
We extend the theory of asymmetric information in mispricing models for stocks following geometric Brownian motion to constant relative risk averse investors. Mispricing follows a continuous mean--reverting Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process. Optimal portfolios and maximum expected log--linear utilities from terminal wealth f…
Paper proposes HIDAM model to improve MSE default risk assessment using heterogeneous information networks.
problem Default risk assessment for MSEs due to lack of credit information and diverse financial activities.
method HIDAM model incorporating heterogeneous information networks with multi-typed nodes and links, extracting interactive information through meta-paths, and using a hierarchical attention mechanism.
result HIDAM model outperforms state-of-the-art competitors on real-world banking data.
Study reveals mutual information is crucial for understanding algorithm performance in stochastic convex optimization.
problem Uncertainty in capturing the exceptional performance of learning algorithms using existing information-theoretic generalization bounds.
method Examined the relationship between mutual information and generalization in stochastic convex optimization.
result Mutual information is necessary for true risk minimization in stochastic convex optimization, indicating existing bounds fall short.
The paper extends utility maximization by integrating partial information and robust VaR constraints.
problem Optimal investment under partial information and robust VaR-type constraints.
method Combines partial information and robust regulatory constraints (VaR) to solve the utility maximization problem.
result Optimal wealth is a decreasing function of state price density, and depends on the overall evolution of the estimated market price of risk.
This paper reviews information theory in open-world machine learning.
problem Lack of a unified theoretical foundation for open-world machine learning.
method Synthesis of information theoretic approaches.
result Established a pathway toward provable and trustworthy open world intelligence.
When investors have heterogeneous attitudes towards risk, it is reasonable to assume that each investor has a pricing kernel, and that these individual pricing kernels are aggregated to form a market pricing kernel. The various investors are then buyers or sellers depending on how their individual pricing kernels compa…
A new indicator measures project risk from activity durations.
problem Managing project risks throughout the lifecycle.
method Activity Risk Index (ARI) based on Schedule Risk Baseline.
result Identifies activities contributing most to project uncertainty.
In this work we consider adversarial contextual bandits with risk constraints. At each round, nature prepares a context, a cost for each arm, and additionally a risk for each arm. The learner leverages the context to pull an arm and then receives the corresponding cost and risk associated with the pulled arm. In additi…