Informer improves financial market prediction accuracy with global time stamp features.
problem Intra-day minute-scale financial market prediction challenges.
method Informer network, a novel deep learning model with smaller computational complexity and global time stamp features.
result Informer achieves best performance on MAE, RMSE, and MAPE evaluation criteria across all datasets.
Develops methods to select informative conformal prediction sets with FCR control.
problem Selecting informative prediction sets with FCR control in supervised learning.
method Unified framework for informative conformal prediction sets with FCR control.
result First procedures providing FCR control for informative prediction sets.
This work connects conformal prediction to information theory for uncertainty estimation.
problem Uncertainty estimation in machine learning models.
method Information theory applied to conformal prediction.
result Proven ways to upper bound intrinsic uncertainty using information theory.
PI-SAC agents learn predictive information to improve RL efficiency.
problem Improving sample efficiency in reinforcement learning.
method PI-SAC agents use a contrastive version of Conditional Entropy Bottleneck to learn predictive information from past and future states.
result PI-SAC agents significantly improve sample efficiency on challenging continuous control tasks.
Proposes EPIG for active learning to improve predictive performance.
problem Suboptimal predictive performance of traditional active learning methods.
method Introduces EPIG, a new acquisition function measuring information gain in the space of predictions.
result EPIG leads to stronger predictive performance compared to BALD across various datasets and models.
Physics-informed neural networks improve pathloss prediction accuracy.
problem Improving pathloss prediction accuracy in wireless communications.
method Physics-informed neural networks incorporating physical dependencies and measured values.
result Physics-informed neural networks achieve better generalization and prediction quality with fewer layers and parameters.
In this paper, we examine the fundamental performance limits of prediction, with or without side information. More specifically, we derive generic lower bounds on the Lp norms of the prediction errors that are valid for any prediction algorithms and for any data distributions. Meanwhile, we combine the ent…
New method quantifies redundant information using information bottleneck.
problem Quantifying redundant information among multiple sources.
method Formulated as an information bottleneck problem, termed redundancy bottleneck.
result Extracts information that best predicts the target without revealing source identity.
Controller seeks informative system observations to predict nonlinear dynamics.
problem Predicting nonlinear dynamics with uncertain parameters.
method Expected free energy minimization for balancing goal state and informative observations.
result Controller improves performance in uncertain parameter scenarios.
New method identifies informed traders in prediction markets.
problem How information is incorporated into market prices is unknown.
method Kyle model applied to field experiment prediction market data.
result Traders with significant price impact are identified as informed.
Forecastability measures predictive information across horizons.
problem How much predictive information is available at each prediction horizon?
method Develops the consequences of mutual information between future observations and information set.
result Forecastability is a profile reflecting process dependence structure, with properties like compression and truncation error.
New bounds estimate learning algorithm performance using prediction information.
problem Estimating the performance of black-box learning algorithms.
method Information-theoretic bounds based on prediction information.
result Improved bounds applicable to deterministic algorithms and easier to estimate.
TaRP predicts missing relations in KGs using type and instance-level info.
problem Missing relations in KGs.
method Type-augmented relation prediction (TaRP) combining type and instance-level info.
result Significantly better performance on benchmark datasets.
DefogGAN predicts hidden RTS game information to aid strategic decision-making.
problem Predicting hidden information in real-time strategy games like StarCraft.
method Conditional Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) with pyramidal reconstruction loss.
result DefogGAN predicts enemy buildings and combat units as accurately as professional players.
DArtNet predicts time series data using graph structure and dynamic attributes.
problem Predicting time series data using graph structure and dynamic attributes.
method DArtNet learns static and dynamic embeddings for graph nodes and encodes history information using RNN for joint link and attribute prediction.
result Improved time series prediction accuracy on five datasets.
Certain biological neurons demonstrate a remarkable capability to optimally compress the history of sensory inputs while being maximally informative about the future. In this work, we investigate if the same can be said of artificial neurons in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) trained with maximum likelihood. Empirical…
New insights and algorithms improve prediction models with time-series privileged information.
problem Efficient learning of nonlinear prediction models with limited data.
method Generalization of LuPI to nonlinear tasks, using random features and representation learning.
result Theoretical and empirical evidence supports the use of privileged time-series information for nonlinear prediction.
Harmonization schemes limit accuracy due to domain information.
problem Harmonization schemes lead to inaccurate predictions due to domain information.
method Analysis of mutual information and real label value informativeness.
result Accuracy is limited by the domain with least information.
New criterion improves predictive evaluation in weighted inference scenarios.
problem Improving predictive evaluation in scenarios with different likelihoods for estimation and evaluation.
method Developed the posterior covariance information criterion (PCIC) to handle weighted likelihood inference.
result PCIC is asymptotically unbiased for quasi-Bayesian generalization error in weighted inference.
A method removes treatment-covariate dependence for counterfactual prediction without adversarial training.
problem Counterfactual prediction under assignment bias.
method Information-theoretic approach learning a stochastic representation Z to minimize mutual information with outcomes.
result The method performs favorably in likelihood, counterfactual error, and policy evaluation compared to adversarial baselines.
A new framework for information theory considers computational constraints.
problem Understanding information in complex systems with computational limitations.
method Variational extension of Shannon's information theory with computational constraints.
result Predictive V-information can be created through computation and reliably estimated from data. DEAL model predicts links for new nodes with only attribute info.
problem Predicting links for new nodes with only attribute info.
method DEAL model with two encoders and alignment mechanism.
result DEAL significantly outperforms existing methods on inductive link prediction.
Bayesian method predicts asset returns for better portfolio optimization.
problem Uncertainty in financial markets makes traditional portfolio optimization methods unreliable.
method Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) combined with dynamic linear models.
result Predicted distribution information improves portfolio performance.
C-IP improves LLMs' query selection for interactive tasks by estimating uncertainty robustly.
problem Minimizing the number of queries for interactive LLMs.
method Conformal Information Pursuit (C-IP) using conformal prediction sets.
result C-IP achieves better predictive performance and shorter query-answer chains.
Motivation: Prediction of the interaction affinity between proteins and compounds is a major challenge in the drug discovery process. WideDTA is a deep-learning based prediction model that employs chemical and biological textual sequence information to predict binding affinity. Results: WideDTA uses four text-based inf…
We propose a physics-informed Echo State Network (ESN) to predict the evolution of chaotic systems. Compared to conventional ESNs, the physics-informed ESNs are trained to solve supervised learning tasks while ensuring that their predictions do not violate physical laws. This is achieved by introducing an additional lo…
Proposes a new hyperprior and predictive criterion for weakly informative hyperprior in relevance vector machine.
problem Capturing non-homogeneous data structure with limited kernel functions.
method Uses inverse gamma hyperprior with a shape parameter close to zero and a scale parameter not close to zero. Applies multiple kernel method with different widths. Proposes extended predictive information criterion for scale parameter selection.
result Obtains a multiple kernel relevance vector regression model with good predictive accuracy.
New framework predicts earnings announcements using press release content, surpassing earnings surprises.
problem Predicting stock returns based on earnings press releases.
method Compared traditional and BERT-based embeddings of press releases, finding content as informative as earnings surprises.
result FinBERT yields highest predictive power for earnings announcement returns.
The paper proposes a framework for information-theoretic predictive uncertainty measures.
problem The need for reliable estimation of predictive uncertainty in machine learning.
method Revisiting core concepts, categorizing predictive uncertainty measures based on model and approximation of true distribution.
result Identification of conditions under which certain predictive uncertainty measures excel.
Study shows using time-series privileged information improves model efficiency.
problem Efficiently predicting future outcomes using supervised models with privileged information.
method Developed an algorithm for learning with privileged time-series data and proved its efficiency for non-stationary Gaussian-linear systems.
result Learning with privileged information is more efficient than without it for non-stationary Gaussian-linear systems.
Paper develops a new model for predicting volatility surface.
problem Predicting volatility in financial markets is challenging due to its non-observable nature and complex dynamics.
method Physics-informed convolutional transformer architecture.
result The new model outperforms other deep-learning architectures in predicting volatility surface.
New method corrects active learning for distribution shifts and outliers.
problem Conventional active learning methods fail to account for test-time distribution.
method JEPIG, a hybrid of BALD and EPIG, maximizes expected predictive information gain.
result JEPIG outperforms conventional methods in active learning with distribution shifts.
In classic papers, Zellner demonstrated that Bayesian inference could be derived as the solution to an information theoretic functional. Below we derive a generalized form of this functional as a variational lower bound of a predictive information bottleneck objective. This generalized functional encompasses most moder…
Predicting RNA base distances using a large language model.
problem Accurately predicting RNA structural information, especially distance maps.
method Using a large pretrained RNA language model coupled with a transformer.
result The model can accurately infer RNA base distances from sequence data.
In this paper, we derive generic bounds on the maximum deviations in prediction errors for sequential prediction via an information-theoretic approach. The fundamental bounds are shown to depend only on the conditional entropy of the data point to be predicted given the previous data points. In the asymptotic case, the…
Zellner (1988) modeled statistical inference in terms of information processing and postulated the Information Conservation Principle (ICP) between the input and output of the information processing block, showing that this yielded Bayesian inference as the optimum information processing rule. Recently, Alemi (2019) re…
Self-Distilled Disentanglement improves counterfactual predictions by separating variables.
problem Improving counterfactual predictions in the presence of confounders and unobserved variables.
method Self-Distilled Disentanglement framework based on information theory.
result Effective counterfactual inference in synthetic and real-world datasets.
This paper explores conformal prediction in the learning under privileged information (LUPI) paradigm. We use the SVM+ realization of LUPI in an inductive conformal predictor, and apply it to the MNIST benchmark dataset and three datasets in drug discovery. The results show that using privileged information produces va…
This paper introduces an information theoretic co-training objective for unsupervised learning. We consider the problem of predicting the future. Rather than predict future sensations (image pixels or sound waves) we predict "hypotheses" to be confirmed by future sensations. More formally, we assume a population distri…
Many researchers both in academia and industry have long been interested in the stock market. Numerous approaches were developed to accurately predict future trends in stock prices. Recently, there has been a growing interest in utilizing graph-structured data in computer science research communities. Methods that use …
Proposes a method to predict time series data using scale information.
problem Sequential data exhibits different behavior at different scales.
method Scale-based inference using k-nearest neighbors and sequential prediction. result Asymptotically, the algorithm produces the best prediction error.
The paper predicts diseases using both clinical and genomics data.
problem Clinical predictions using genomics data are not common.
method Integrated clinical and genomics datasets, machine learning, Principal Component Analysis for feature selection.
result 73% accuracy in predicting 75 disease classes.
We create a formal framework for the design of informative securities in prediction markets. These securities allow a market organizer to infer the likelihood of events of interest as well as if he knew all of the traders' private signals. We consider the design of markets that are always informative, markets that are …
CP2 uses geometric information to improve conformal prediction robustness.
problem CP fails under geometric data shifts, losing coverage guarantees.
method Integrates geometric pose information into CP via canonicalization.
result Integrating geometric information with CP ensures robustness under geometric shifts.
Very often features come with their own vectorial descriptions which provide detailed information about their properties. We refer to these vectorial descriptions as feature side-information. In the standard learning scenario, input is represented as a vector of features and the feature side-information is most often i…
Model predicts S&P 500 IT sector index prices with high accuracy.
problem Predicting S&P 500 IT sector index prices accurately.
method Non-linear model using financial and economic indicators.
result Predictive accuracy of 99.4% for S&P 500 IT sector index.
Joint training improves model accuracy by selectively using privileged information.
problem Two-stage training can lead to model failure with noisy privileged information.
method Joint training of two models to use privileged information selectively.
result Joint training outperforms two-stage baselines on synthetic and real-world tasks.
EvoRate metric assesses learnability of sequential data by measuring predictive information.
problem Model misspecification due to misinterpreting patterns in sequential data.
method Predictive information framework based on mutual information between past and future.
result Temporal patterns fundamentally constrain learnability; optimal predictors cannot outperform intrinsic information limit.