A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method reveals true causal functions in nonlinear time series, not just scores.
problem Causal discovery in nonlinear time series often uses scalar edge scores, which hide true function-valued causal influence.
method Formalized function-valued causal influence for additive, contribution-decomposable architectures. Introduced a practical framework based on ICE for estimating causal response functions directly from trained models.
result Edges with indistinguishable scalar scores can exhibit qualitatively different functional behaviors.
There is an especially strong need in modern large-scale data analysis to prioritize samples for manual inspection. For example, the inspection could target important mislabeled samples or key vulnerabilities exploitable by an adversarial attack. In order to solve the "needle in the haystack" problem of which samples t…
INFUSER improves reasoning by co-evolving a generator and solver with adaptive curriculum.
problem Improving reasoning in language models with minimal external supervision.
method INFUSER uses a Generator and Solver to co-evolve iteratively, rewarding the Generator with an influence score and the Solver with correctness rewards.
result INFUSER outperforms self-evolution baselines by over 20% on Olympiad and SuperGPQA benchmarks.
We present a new machine learning and text information extraction approach to detection of cyber threat events in Twitter that are novel (previously non-extant) and developing (marked by significance with respect to similarity with a previously detected event). While some existing approaches to event detection measure …
We propose β-graph embedding for robustly learning feature vectors from data vectors and noisy link weights. A newly introduced empirical moment β-score reduces the influence of contamination and robustly measures the difference between the underlying correct expected weights of links and the specified generative m…
Data samples collected for training machine learning models are typically assumed to be independent and identically distributed (iid). Recent research has demonstrated that this assumption can be problematic as it simplifies the manifold of structured data. This has motivated different research areas such as data poiso…
In this paper, we consider a statistical problem of learning a linear model from noisy samples. Existing work has focused on approximating the least squares solution by using leverage-based scores as an importance sampling distribution. However, no finite sample statistical guarantees and no computationally efficient o…
This paper presents two cases of random banking data generators based on migration matrices and scoring rules. The banking data generator is a new hope in researches of finding the proving method of comparisons of various credit scoring techniques. There is analyzed the influence of one cyclic macro--economic variable …
Accurate and automated detection of anomalous samples in a natural image dataset can be accomplished with a probabilistic model for end-to-end modeling of images. Such images have heterogeneous complexity, however, and a probabilistic model overlooks simply shaped objects with small anomalies. This is because the proba…
This paper addresses the problem of inferring sparse causal networks modeled by multivariate auto-regressive (MAR) processes. Conditions are derived under which the Group Lasso (gLasso) procedure consistently estimates sparse network structure. The key condition involves a "false connection score." In particular, we sh…
We present a new approach to understanding credit relationships between commercial banks and quoted firms, and with this approach, examine the temporal change in the structure of the Japanese credit network from 1980 to 2005. At each year, the credit network is regarded as a weighted bipartite graph where edges corresp…
This research analyzes and accelerates score-based diffusion models using discretization and Hessian information.
problem Theoretical foundations and convergence analysis of score-based diffusion models.
method Investigation of various discretization schemes, including Euler, exponential integrators, and midpoint randomization. Proposal of an accelerated sampler based on local linearization method.
result Hessian-based approach achieves faster convergence rates of order $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(\frac{1}{\varepsilon}
ight)$, significantly improving upon vanilla diffusion models.
Data-trained predictive models see widespread use, but for the most part they are used as black boxes which output a prediction or score. It is therefore hard to acquire a deeper understanding of model behavior, and in particular how different features influence the model prediction. This is important when interpreting…
Proposes a method to infer the distributional impacts of predictive models on stakeholders.
problem The influence of predictive models on target variable distribution, leading to performative prediction.
method Modeling agents' responses as a cost-adjusted utility maximization problem and using optimal transport to align pre- and post-model distributions.
result Provides estimates for the cost associated with these responses and demonstrates the quality of these estimates.
Active learning aims to obtain a classifier of high accuracy by using fewer label requests in comparison to passive learning by selecting effective queries. Many active learning methods have been developed in the past two decades, which sample queries based on informativeness or representativeness of unlabeled data poi…
Recently, due to the booming influence of online social networks, detecting fake news is drawing significant attention from both academic communities and general public. In this paper, we consider the existence of confounding variables in the features of fake news and use Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to select gener…
The health outcomes of high-need patients can be substantially influenced by the degree of patient engagement in their own care. The role of care managers includes that of enrolling patients into care programs and keeping them sufficiently engaged in the program, so that patients can attain various goals. The attainmen…
Predicting properties of nodes in a graph is an important problem with applications in a variety of domains. Graph-based Semi-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods aim to address this problem by labeling a small subset of the nodes as seeds and then utilizing the graph structure to predict label scores for the rest of the …