Covariance is shown as a commutator in random variable calculus.
problem Expressing covariance as a commutator of operators.
method Demonstrated through commutator identities involving expectations and products of functions.
result Revealed the underlying Lie algebraic structure in efficient influence curve calculus.
We derive Frenet-type results and invariants of spatial curves immersed in 3-dimensional generalized Minkowski spaces, i.e., in linear spaces which satisfy all axioms of finite dimensional real Banach spaces except for the symmetry axiom. Further on, we characterize cylindrical helices and rectifying curves in such s…
We study the equilibrium positions of three points on a convex curve under influence of the Coulomb potential. We identify these positions as orthotripods, three points on the curve having concurrent normals. This relates the equilibrium positions to the caustic (evolute) of the curve. The concurrent normals can only m…
The paper shows how the generalization curve can have multiple peaks, influenced by data and learning algorithm biases.
problem Understanding the generalization behavior of linear regression models under varying parameterizations.
method Analyzes generalization loss in linear regression models with varying parameterizations, both under- and over-parameterized.
result The generalization curve can have an arbitrary number of peaks, and their locations can be controlled.
Curve shortening flow shrinks curves to points under certain conditions.
problem Understanding how curves shrink under curve shortening flow with ambient forces.
method Rescaling and curvature bounds analysis following Gage and Hamilton.
result Curves shrink to round points under certain curvature conditions.
We propose a unified mechanism for achieving coordination and communication in Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL), through rewarding agents for having causal influence over other agents' actions. Causal influence is assessed using counterfactual reasoning. At each timestep, an agent simulates alternate actions t…
Magnetic geodesics describe the trajectory of a particle in a Riemannian manifold under the influence of an external magnetic field. In this article, we use the heat flow method to derive existence results for such curves. We first establish subconvergence of this flow to a magnetic geodesic under certain boundedness a…
The ROC curve is widely used to assess the quality of prediction/classification/ranking algorithms, and its properties have been extensively studied. The precision-recall (PR) curve has become the de facto replacement for the ROC curve in the presence of imbalance, namely where one class is far more likely than the oth…
New model predicts neural network performance from early training epochs, incorporating architecture impact.
problem Predicting neural network performance from early training epochs, neglecting architecture impact.
method Architecture-aware graph ordinary differential equation model.
result Model outperforms state-of-the-art methods for MLP and CNN learning curves.
Combines structured inference and targeted learning to tackle causal inference challenges.
problem Treatment assignment heterogeneity and lack of counterfactual data.
method Factorizes joint distribution into risk, confounding, instrumental, and miscellaneous factors; applies regularizer derived from influence curve.
result TVAE demonstrates competitive and state-of-the-art performance on benchmark datasets.
New method saves computational budget by ranking and transferring learning curves.
problem Expensive automated machine learning methods for hyperparameter and neural architecture optimization.
method Tackles as a ranking and transfer learning problem, optimizing a pairwise ranking loss and leveraging learning curves from other datasets.
result Accelerates neural architecture search by a factor of up to 100 without significant performance degradation.
We consider billiard ball motion in a convex domain on a constant curvature surface influenced by the constant magnetic field. We examine the existence of integral of motion which is polynomial in velocities. We prove that if such an integral exists then the boundary curve of the domain determines an algebraic curve in…
We consider billiard ball motion in a convex domain of a constant curvature surface influenced by the constant magnetic field. We prove that if the billiard map is totally integrable then the boundary curve is necessarily a circle. This result is a manifestation of the so-called Hopf rigidity phenomenon which was recen…
Given a smooth manifold M and a totally nonholonomic distribution Δ⊂TM of rank d, we study the effect of singular curves on the topology of the space of horizontal paths joining two points on M. Singular curves are critical points of the endpoint map F:γ↦γ(1) defined on the space Ω of horizonta…
The paper addresses Qini curve estimation under clustered network interference.
problem Qini curves can be biased when interference is ignored in clustered network settings.
method Proposes three estimation strategies for clustered network interference.
result Identifies the most appropriate approach based on bias-variance trade-offs.
We provide a general framework for characterizing the trade-off between accuracy and robustness in supervised learning. We propose a method and define quantities to characterize the trade-off between accuracy and robustness for a given architecture, and provide theoretical insight into the trade-off. Specifically we in…
In bankruptcy prediction, the proportion of events is very low, which is often oversampled to eliminate this bias. In this paper, we study the influence of the event rate on discrimination abilities of bankruptcy prediction models. First the statistical association and significance of public records and firmographics i…
Identifying patient characteristics that influence the rate of colorectal polyp recurrence can provide important insights into which patients are at higher risk for recurrence. We used natural language processing to extract polyp morphological characteristics from 953 polyp-presenting patients' electronic medical recor…
Develops ML tool for macroeconomic forecasting with clear interpretations.
problem Forecasting and understanding macroeconomic parameters over time.
method Macroeconomic Random Forest (MRF) algorithm, Generalized Time-Varying Parameters (GTVPs).
result Clear forecasting gains and accurate predictions of unemployment and inflation.
We develop two new methods of constructing sequences of manifolds with positive scalar curvature that converge in the Gromov-Hausdorff and Intrinsic Flat sense to limit spaces with "pulled regions". The examples created rigorously within using these methods were announced by us a few years ago and have influenced the s…
The paper uses regression models to predict COVID-19 spread and its stock market impact.
problem Predicting and understanding the impact of COVID-19 on stock markets.
method Logistic curve model with Bayesian regression for predictive analytics.
result Different crises have different impacts on the same stocks.
Establishes statistical and computational bounds for influence diagnostics.
problem Identifying influential datapoints or subsets in machine learning models.
method Finite-sample statistical bounds and computational complexity for influence functions and approximate maximum influence perturbations.
result Established statistical and computational guarantees for influence diagnostics.
Proves conditions for Cauchy horizons in low-regularity spacetimes.
problem Conditions for the existence of Cauchy horizons in spacetimes with low regularity.
method Analyzes the relationship between complete Cauchy hypersurfaces, almost closed causal curves, and points at infinity.
result Wald's conjecture reformulated as a PDE problem about Cauchy horizons.
The study identifies features making cross-impact relevant in explaining price variance of US assets.
problem Understanding the relevance of cross-impact in explaining price variance of US assets.
method Using tick-by-tick data spanning 5 years for 500 US assets, the study investigates the features making cross-impact relevant.
result Price formation is endogenous within highly liquid assets, influencing less liquid correlated products with a constrained impact velocity.
Proposes ICE-based metric for better understanding interactions in black-box models.
problem Misleading global sensitivity metrics in black-box models due to interaction effects.
method Individual Conditional Expectation (ICE) curves to compute feature importance and interactions.
result ICE-based metric provides richer insights into feature importance and interactions.
Dynamic Influence Tracker measures changing sample importance during model training.
problem Static influence measurements during training overlook how sample importance varies over time.
method Dynamic Influence Tracker (DIT) captures time-varying sample influence across arbitrary time windows.
result DIT reveals distinct learning phases with shifting priorities and detects corrupted samples more efficiently.
Proposes neuron alignment to optimize mode connectivity in neural networks.
problem Understanding and optimizing mode connectivity in deep neural networks.
method Introduces neuron alignment to approximate optimal weight permutations and improve mode connectivity.
result Neuron alignment significantly alleviates robust loss barriers and improves model robustness and accuracy.
Previous work has shown that popular trending events are important external factors which pose significant influence on user search behavior and also provided a way to computationally model this influence. However, their problem formulation was based on the strong assumption that each event poses its influence independ…
We address the problem of influence maximization when the social network is accompanied by diffusion cascades. In prior works, such information is used to compute influence probabilities, which is utilized by stochastic diffusion models in influence maximization. Motivated by the recent criticism on the effectiveness o…
RelatIF selects more intuitive training examples for explaining model predictions.
problem Influence functions identify outliers as explanatory examples, leading to poor explanations.
method RelatIF separates global and local influence, optimizing for local relative to global effects.
result Examples selected by RelatIF are more intuitive than those from influence functions.
Motivated by the need to audit complex and black box models, there has been extensive research on quantifying how data features influence model predictions. Feature influence can be direct (a direct influence on model outcomes) and indirect (model outcomes are influenced via proxy features). Feature influence can also …
Complete criterion for VoI in multi-decision influence diagrams established.
problem Analyzing safety and fairness properties of AI systems using influence diagrams.
method Introduced ID homomorphisms and Tree of Systems to prove properties of multi-decision influence diagrams.
result First complete graphical criterion for VoI in influence diagrams with multiple decisions.
We study a mean-field version of rank-based models of equity markets such as the Atlas model introduced by Fernholz in the framework of Stochastic Portfolio Theory. We obtain an asymptotic description of the market when the number of companies grows to infinity. Then, we discuss the long-term capital distribution. We r…
Influence functions are inaccurate in deep learning models, especially for deeper networks.
problem Inaccuracies in influence functions in deep learning models.
method Empirical study of influence functions in neural network models trained on various datasets.
result Influence estimates are often erroneous for deeper networks and require regularization.
Study finds AUC is most consistent across different prevalence in binary classification.
problem Consistency of model evaluation metrics across varying prevalence in binary classification.
method Analysis of 156 data scenarios with 18 metrics, 5 models, and a random guess model.
result AUC has the smallest variance in evaluating individual models and ranking of models.
We consider the problem of selecting a seed set to maximize the expected number of influenced nodes in the social network, referred to as the \textit{influence maximization} (IM) problem. We assume that the topology of the social network is prescribed while the influence probabilities among edges are unknown. In order …
The paper simplifies influence computations for large-scale machine learning models.
problem Improving training efficiency and accuracy in large-scale models.
method Study influence functions, define memorization, simplify computations.
result Influence functions can be practical for large-scale models, indicating memorization.
Slice Tuner optimizes data acquisition for accurate and fair machine learning models.
problem Acquiring enough data for all slices of data to ensure accurate and fair models.
method Selective data acquisition using convex optimization and iterative learning curve updates.
result Significantly outperforms baselines in model accuracy and fairness.
New algorithm for competing influence spread in unknown networks.
problem Maximizing influence spread in a social network with unknown probabilities.
method Combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) framework, Triggering Probability Modulated (TPM) condition, OCIM-TS, OCIM-OFU, OCIM-ETC.
result Sublinear Bayesian and frequentist regret for OCIM-TS and OCIM-OFU, respectively.
MRI image quality affects statistical and predictive analysis of brain morphology.
problem Impact of MRI image quality on statistical and predictive analysis of brain morphology.
method Systematic testing of image quality on univariate statistics and machine learning classification using three large datasets.
result Low-quality MRI data significantly affects detecting significant sex/gender differences in smaller samples, but not in larger ones.
Better Hessian approximations improve influence function attributions in deep learning.
problem Influence functions are difficult to compute due to ill-conditioned Hessians, leading to poor data attribution performance.
method Investigated the impact of Hessian approximation quality on influence-function attributions in a controlled setting.
result Better Hessian approximations consistently yield better influence score quality.
The paper extends influence functions to sequence tagging tasks for better model interpretability.
problem Lack of interpretability methods for sequence tagging models.
method Define and compute influence of training instance segments on test segment predictions.
result The segment influence method tracks with true influence and identifies annotation errors.
This study analyzes mutual influence on investment strategies of financial market agents.
problem Mutual influence among agents in financial markets and its impact on investment strategies.
method Formulated optimal investment differential game problem, derived analytical solutions, proposed fast algorithm, and theoretically analyzed mutual influence.
result Agents' optimal strategies converge to the asymptotic strategy when mutual influence is strong and approaches infinity.
Influence functions help study large language model generalization, revealing surprising decay patterns.
problem Understanding and mitigating risks in large language models (LLMs).
method Eigenvalue-corrected Kronecker-Factored Approximation (EK-FAC) to scale influence functions to LLMs.
result Influences decay to near-zero when key phrases order is flipped, revealing a surprising limitation.
New method for fair influence maximization in social networks.
problem Maximizing influence while ensuring fairness across sensitive attributes.
method Co-training an auto-encoder and discriminator to create fair graph embeddings.
result Our method reduces disparity while maintaining competitive influence maximization performance.
New framework for online influencer selection considering cost constraints.
problem Real-world social advertising budget limitations and cost variability of influencers.
method Introduces a budgeted framework for online influence maximization using an algorithm with semi-bandit feedback.
result Improves the state of the art regret bound for cardinality constraint setting.
We study the problem of online influence maximization in social networks. In this problem, a learner aims to identify the set of "best influencers" in a network by interacting with it, i.e., repeatedly selecting seed nodes and observing activation feedback in the network. We capitalize on an important property of the i…
I-GCN improves GCNs' robustness against adversarial attacks.
problem Adversarial attacks degrade GCNs' performance in security-critical applications.
method Influence mechanism divides node effects into introverted and extroverted influences.
result I-GCN achieves higher accuracy rates than state-of-the-art methods in defending against adversarial attacks.