A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
News on inflation and monetary policy impacts US household inflation expectations.
Optimal text-based indices track VIX and inflation.
Study uses social network data to analyze regional inflation trends.
A new neural network model predicts inflation and output gap more accurately.
Investment strategy for DC pension plan with inflation risk and tail VaR constraint.
The main aim of this paper is to inspect the properties of survey based on households inflation expectations, conducted by Reserve Bank of India. It is theorized that the respondents answers are exaggerated by extreme response bias. Latent class analysis has been hailed as a promising technique for studying measurement…
The paper evaluates various forecasting methods for inflation, finding ML models superior.
The analysis of dollar inflation performed by the authors through the approximation of empirical data for 1913-2012 with a power-law function with an accelerating log-periodic oscillation superimposed over it has made it possible to detect a quasi-singularity point around the 17th of December, 2012. It is demonstrated …
We develop a model to price inflation and interest rates derivatives using continuous-time dynamics that have some links with macroeconomic monetary DSGE models equipped with a Taylor rule: in particular, the reaction function of the central bank, the bond market liquidity, inflation and growth expectations play an imp…
The paper analyzes a five-factor capital market model and facilitates exact simulation.
The paper addresses frequentist regret of Linear Thompson Sampling in stochastic linear bandits.
We study an asset allocation stochastic problem with restriction for a defined-contribution pension plan during the accumulation phase. We consider a financial market with stochastic interest rate, composed of a risk-free asset, a real zero coupon bond price, the inflation-linked bond and the risky asset. A plan member…
Using an analog of the boundary element method in engineering and science, we analyze and model unemployment rate in Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States as a function of inflation and the change in labor force. Originally, the model linking unemployment to inflation and labor for…
Inflating the minimum norm interpolator improves linear regression generalization error.
Boundary effects inflate variance in Gaussian processes, leading to acquisition bias.
Investigates optimal life insurance and annuity decisions in inflationary economies.
New core inflation measure predicts future headline inflation.
We propose a class of discrete-time stochastic models for the pricing of inflation-linked assets. The paper begins with an axiomatic scheme for asset pricing and interest rate theory in a discrete-time setting. The first axiom introduces a "risk-free" asset, and the second axiom determines the intertemporal pricing rel…
Bitcoin fails to function as a stable currency or store of value.
For those concerned with the long-term value of their accounts, it can be a challenge to plan in the present for inflation-adjusted economic growth over coming decades. Here, I argue that there exists an economic constant that carries through time, and that this can help us to anticipate the more distant future: global…
This paper proposes the use of wavelet methods to estimate U.S. core inflation. It explains wavelet methods and suggests they are ideally suited to this task. Comparisons are made with traditional CPI-based and regression-based measures for their performance in following trend inflation and predicting future inflation.…
Bitcoin reacts negatively to inflation surprises, contrary to belief.
Study finds relevance of exchange and inflation rates to economic factors.
Consider the problem of a government that wants to reduce the debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio of a country. The government aims at choosing a debt reduction policy which minimises the total expected cost of having debt, plus the total expected cost of interventions on the debt ratio. We model this problem as…
The paper discusses the role of monetary policy when potential output depends on the inflation rate. If the intention of the central bank is to maximize actual output growth, then it has to be credibly committed to a strict inflation targeting rule, and to take the MOGIR (the Maximizing Output Growth Inflation Rate) as…
ZICO learns DAGs from zero-inflated count data efficiently.
The evolution of inflation, p(t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Japan has been modeled. Both variables were represented as linear functions of the change rate of labor force, dLF/LF. These models provide an accurate description of disinflation in the 1990s and a deflationary period in the 2000s. In Japan, there exists a …
New ZIPLN model accounts for zero-inflation in multivariate count data.
Regularized mixtures improve inflation and interest rate forecasts, especially correcting overconfidence.
Generative models' evaluation scores can be misleading, leading to inflated grades.
Paper proposes copula-based models for analyzing multivariate zero-inflated continuous data.
We test for the long-run relationship between stock prices, inflation and its uncertainty for different U.S. sector stock indexes, over the period 2002M7 to 2015M10. For this purpose we use a cointegration analysis with one structural break to capture the crisis effect, and we assess the inflation uncertainty based on …
Interest rate market models, like the LIBOR market model, have the advantage that the basic model quantities are directly observable in financial markets. Inflation market models extend this approach to inflation markets, where zero-coupon and year-on-year inflation-indexed swaps are the basic observable products. For …
Starting with an ideal triangulation of the interior of a compact 3-manifold M with boundary, no component of which is a 2-sphere, we provide a construction, called an inflation of the ideal triangulation, to obtain a strongly related triangulations of M itself. Besides a step-by-step algorithm for such a construction,…
Paper uses LSTM to predict inflation, finds it performs well over long periods.
Paper introduces ZIPTF and C-ZIPTF for better tensor factorization of zero-inflated count data.
We model the rate of inflation and unemployment in Austria since the early 1960s within the Phillips/Fisher framework. The change in labour force is the driving force representing economic activity in the Phillips curve. For Austria, this macroeconomic variable was first tested as a predictor of inflation and unemploym…
The paper analyzes global inflation's systemic nature and its impact on equity markets.
Alternative wavelet analysis method for financial signals.
We have recently introduced the ``thermal optimal path'' (TOP) method to investigate the real-time lead-lag structure between two time series. The TOP method consists in searching for a robust noise-averaged optimal path of the distance matrix along which the two time series have the greatest similarity. Here, we gener…
This article is an extension of the work of one of us (Coopersmith, 2011) in deriving the relationship between certain interest rates and the inflation rate of a two component economic system. We use the well-known Fisher relation between the difference of the nominal interest rate and its inflation adjusted value to e…
New model improves European inflation and interest rate predictions.
We study the shape of inflated surfaces introduced in \cite{B1} and \cite{P1}. More precisely, we analyze profiles of surfaces obtained by inflating a convex polyhedron, or more generally an almost everywhere flat surface, with a symmetry plane. We show that such profiles are in a one-parameter family of curves which w…
Funds inflate their returns due to price pressure, leading to wealth reallocation and market crashes.
This study explains and mitigates inflated returns and turnover in SPO-based portfolio optimization.
Zero-inflated datasets, which have an excess of zero outputs, are commonly encountered in problems such as climate or rare event modelling. Conventional machine learning approaches tend to overestimate the non-zeros leading to poor performance. We propose a novel model family of zero-inflated Gaussian processes (ZiGP) …
In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and Inflation targeting). The task of our study is to compare econometrically the perform…
New bandit algorithms improve sparse reward learning.