New methods provide stable ranking without assumptions on data distributions.
problem Stability issues in ranking problems with noisy data.
method Developed a stability framework and two ranking operators.
result Guaranteed stability without assumptions on data distributions.
Deep networks learn clean structure before memorizing corrupted labels, leaving a spectral signature in gradient centered scatter.
problem Deep networks' transition from learning clean structure to memorizing corrupted labels under label noise.
method Analysis of the centered scatter of per-example last-layer gradients to identify Fisher Rank Inflation.
result Fisher Rank Inflation is a spectral signature of memorization under label noise, with effective rank expanding during memorization.
This study explains and mitigates inflated returns and turnover in SPO-based portfolio optimization.
problem Inflated returns and excessive turnover in SPO-based portfolio optimization.
method KKT-based interpretation of portfolio decisions as ranking over adjusted scores, empirical evaluation of stabilization mechanisms.
result Realistic output constraints and portfolio-level turnover control improve SPO-based strategies.
New core inflation measure predicts future headline inflation.
problem Creating a better measure of core inflation for timely policy decisions.
method Assemblage Regression, a nonnegative ridge regression that optimizes subcomponent weights.
result Significant improvements in forecasting medium-term inflation developments.
LLM forecasting benchmarks suffer from information leakage, which confounds model performance.
problem LLM forecasting benchmarks suffer from information leakage.
method A retrieval-augmented LLM forecaster observes only decision-time information.
result The full pipeline obtains a median monthly Spearman rank IC of +0.154.
The paper analyzes a five-factor capital market model and facilitates exact simulation.
problem Analyzing and simulating a five-factor capital market model.
method Using a Vasicek interest rate model, mean-reverting excess return, and realized inflation with expectation, the paper derives the necessary distributional results and describes practical methods to overcome rank deficiency.
result Exact simulation from the model can be achieved by sampling from a seven-dimensional normal distribution.
A composite loss framework is proposed for low-rank modeling of data consisting of interesting and common values, such as excess zeros or missing values. The methodology is motivated by the generalized low-rank framework and the hurdle method which is commonly used to analyze zero-inflated counts. The model is demonstr…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling from a posterior distribution corresponding to a massive data set can be computationally prohibitive since producing one sample requires a number of operations that is linear in the data size. In this paper, we introduce a new communication-free parallel method, the Likelihood I…
New bound for neural networks with full-rank weights, independent of network width.
problem Understanding generalization of neural networks with full-rank weight matrices.
method Using Koopman operators to derive a tighter generalization bound for full-rank weight matrices.
result The bound is tighter than existing norm-based bounds when condition numbers are small.
News on inflation and monetary policy impacts US household inflation expectations.
problem Understanding how news affects inflation expectations.
method Monthly disaggregated US data from 1978 to 2016, controlling for various factors.
result News on rising inflation and easier monetary policy has a stronger impact on inflation expectations.
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, p(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 was found for developed economies. For the USA, A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE) of 0.8% at a two-year horizon for the period between 1965 and 2002 (the best amon…
The study finds discrete subgroups with full limit sets in higher rank Lie groups.
problem Finding discrete subgroups with full limit sets in higher rank Lie groups.
method Analyzing real semi-simple Lie groups of higher rank and providing criteria for discrete subgroups of G=SL(3,R). result Existence of discrete subgroups with full limit sets in higher rank Lie groups.
Max-rank improves multiple testing in conformal prediction.
problem Simultaneous testing of multiple hypotheses in scientific inquiries.
method Introduces max-rank, a novel correction for positive dependencies in simultaneous testing.
result Max-rank efficiently controls family-wise error rate and improves predictive uncertainty estimates.
We consider the problem of statistical inference for ranking data, specifically rank aggregation, under the assumption that samples are incomplete in the sense of not comprising all choice alternatives. In contrast to most existing methods, we explicitly model the process of turning a full ranking into an incomplete on…
No policy can simultaneously be fully autonomous, optimally calibrated, and helpful, proving a trilemma.
problem Proving impossibility of a policy achieving maximum helpfulness, optimal calibration, and full autonomy.
method Geometric proof showing that adding any non-affine autonomy incentive to a strictly proper scoring rule destroys strict properness.
result The Behavioral Credibility Trilemma: no policy can achieve all three goals simultaneously.
Completes the space of vector-valued one-forms on manifolds.
problem Metric incompleteness of the space of full-ranked one-forms.
method Distance equality and quotient structures.
result Concrete description of the metric completion of the space of full-ranked one-forms.
This paper proposes the use of wavelet methods to estimate U.S. core inflation. It explains wavelet methods and suggests they are ideally suited to this task. Comparisons are made with traditional CPI-based and regression-based measures for their performance in following trend inflation and predicting future inflation.…
Bitcoin reacts negatively to inflation surprises, contrary to belief.
problem Bitcoin's ability to hedge inflation is questioned.
method Examined cryptocurrency responses to macroeconomic news announcements.
result Bitcoin's price decreases by 24 bps in response to inflationary surprises.
Study finds relevance of exchange and inflation rates to economic factors.
problem Determining the relevance of exchange and inflation rates to economic factors.
method Introduced concept of adequacy, established positive relation between exchange and inflation rates and other economic factors.
result Close positive relation found between exchange and inflation rates and other economic factors.
Study Betti and Hodge numbers of solvmanifolds from integer polynomials.
problem Computing Betti and Hodge numbers of solvmanifolds constructed from integer polynomials.
method Analyzing de Rham and Dolbeault cohomology of solvmanifolds under algebraic conditions.
result Explicit generating polynomials for Hodge numbers in quasi full rank case.
The paper discusses the role of monetary policy when potential output depends on the inflation rate. If the intention of the central bank is to maximize actual output growth, then it has to be credibly committed to a strict inflation targeting rule, and to take the MOGIR (the Maximizing Output Growth Inflation Rate) as…
We present online boosting algorithms for multilabel ranking with top-k feedback, where the learner only receives information about the top k items from the ranking it provides. We propose a novel surrogate loss function and unbiased estimator, allowing weak learners to update themselves with limited information. Using…
This paper describes a versatile method that accelerates multichannel source separation methods based on full-rank spatial modeling. A popular approach to multichannel source separation is to integrate a spatial model with a source model for estimating the spatial covariance matrices (SCMs) and power spectral densities…
ZICO learns DAGs from zero-inflated count data efficiently.
problem Learning network structures from zero-inflated count data.
method ZICO uses node-wise likelihoods with canonical links and a differentiable surrogate constraint for acyclicity.
result ZICO achieves superior performance and faster runtimes on simulated data.
The evolution of inflation, p(t), and unemployment, UE(t), in Japan has been modeled. Both variables were represented as linear functions of the change rate of labor force, dLF/LF. These models provide an accurate description of disinflation in the 1990s and a deflationary period in the 2000s. In Japan, there exists a …
New metrics defined for full-rank correlation matrices, ensuring unique operations.
problem No suitable problem statement as the abstract does not describe a problem to be solved.
method New Riemannian metrics defined on full-rank correlation matrices, providing unique operations.
result Unique Riemannian logarithm and Fréchet mean defined for full-rank correlation matrices.
New ZIPLN model accounts for zero-inflation in multivariate count data.
problem Zero-inflation in multivariate count data.
method Introduced Zero-Inflated PLN (ZIPLN) model with variational inference.
result ZIPLN significantly improves log-likelihood and reduces dispersion.
Regularized mixtures improve inflation and interest rate forecasts, especially correcting overconfidence.
problem Improving density forecasts of Eurozone inflation and real interest rates.
method Construct regularized mixtures of density forecasts with various objectives and penalties.
result Regularized mixtures outperform individual forecasters, especially correcting overconfidence.
Generative models' evaluation scores can be misleading, leading to inflated grades.
problem Misleading evaluation scores for generative models.
method Analyzed and compared various scores for evaluating synthetic vs. ground-truth data.
result The Eden score avoids grade inflation and better aligns with human perception.
Method quantifies uncertainty in full ranking with new CP approach.
problem Uncertainty quantification in full ranking with unknown ground truth.
method Transductive Conformal Prediction (CP) method to construct distribution-free bounds.
result Valid prediction sets and false coverage proportion control for full ranking.
Paper proposes copula-based models for analyzing multivariate zero-inflated continuous data.
problem Challenges in analyzing multivariate zero-inflated continuous data with mixed discreteness and continuity.
method Proposes two copula-based density estimation models and rectified Gaussian copula.
result Demonstrates superior performance compared to conventional methods.
We test for the long-run relationship between stock prices, inflation and its uncertainty for different U.S. sector stock indexes, over the period 2002M7 to 2015M10. For this purpose we use a cointegration analysis with one structural break to capture the crisis effect, and we assess the inflation uncertainty based on …
The paper evaluates various forecasting methods for inflation, finding ML models superior.
problem Forecasting inflation using disaggregated data and machine learning.
method Examines traditional and machine learning models, including random forest, for disaggregated and aggregated inflation forecasts.
result Aggregating disaggregated forecasts performs similarly to survey-based expectations and aggregate models.
Interest rate market models, like the LIBOR market model, have the advantage that the basic model quantities are directly observable in financial markets. Inflation market models extend this approach to inflation markets, where zero-coupon and year-on-year inflation-indexed swaps are the basic observable products. For …
New insights into identifying mixtures of product distributions using Hadamard extensions.
problem Identifying mixtures of product distributions on binary variables.
method Analysis of Hadamard extensions of matrix products.
result Conditions for full column rank of Hadamard extensions.
Starting with an ideal triangulation of the interior of a compact 3-manifold M with boundary, no component of which is a 2-sphere, we provide a construction, called an inflation of the ideal triangulation, to obtain a strongly related triangulations of M itself. Besides a step-by-step algorithm for such a construction,…
Paper uses LSTM to predict inflation, finds it performs well over long periods.
problem Predicting inflation using machine learning models.
method Applies LSTM, a recurrent neural network, to forecast inflation over time.
result LSTM model performs well at long horizons and during uncertain economic times.
Paper introduces ZIPTF and C-ZIPTF for better tensor factorization of zero-inflated count data.
problem Inefficient tensor factorization for zero-inflated count data, especially in scRNA-seq.
method Zero Inflated Poisson Tensor Factorization (ZIPTF) and Consensus Zero Inflated Poisson Tensor Factorization (C-ZIPTF).
result ZIPTF and C-ZIPTF improve tensor factorization accuracy and consistency for zero-inflated count data.
We model the rate of inflation and unemployment in Austria since the early 1960s within the Phillips/Fisher framework. The change in labour force is the driving force representing economic activity in the Phillips curve. For Austria, this macroeconomic variable was first tested as a predictor of inflation and unemploym…
The paper analyzes global inflation's systemic nature and its impact on equity markets.
problem Understanding the systemic nature of global inflation and its financial market implications.
method Data-driven study using eigenvalue analysis, inner-product optimization, and time-varying portfolio optimization.
result Countries with high centrality in global inflation are identified, and the robustness of equity indices and sectors during inflationary periods are explored.
We develop a model to price inflation and interest rates derivatives using continuous-time dynamics that have some links with macroeconomic monetary DSGE models equipped with a Taylor rule: in particular, the reaction function of the central bank, the bond market liquidity, inflation and growth expectations play an imp…
Study uses social network data to analyze regional inflation trends.
problem Analyzing inflation trends using social media data.
method BERT neural networks for identifying pro-inflationary and disinflationary keywords.
result Models can visualize and classify inflationary keywords in different contexts.
Optimal text-based indices track VIX and inflation.
problem Maximizing contemporaneous relation or predictive performance with target variables.
method Optimizing text-based indices focusing on VIX and inflation expectations.
result Superior performance compared to existing indices.
This article is an extension of the work of one of us (Coopersmith, 2011) in deriving the relationship between certain interest rates and the inflation rate of a two component economic system. We use the well-known Fisher relation between the difference of the nominal interest rate and its inflation adjusted value to e…
New model improves European inflation and interest rate predictions.
problem Improving predictions of European inflation and interest rates.
method Stochastic, continuous time model with unique solution for valuation equation.
result Model performs better on market data from 2008 to 2015.
We study the shape of inflated surfaces introduced in \cite{B1} and \cite{P1}. More precisely, we analyze profiles of surfaces obtained by inflating a convex polyhedron, or more generally an almost everywhere flat surface, with a symmetry plane. We show that such profiles are in a one-parameter family of curves which w…
Funds inflate their returns due to price pressure, leading to wealth reallocation and market crashes.
problem Funds inflate their returns due to price pressure, leading to wealth reallocation and market crashes.
method Decomposed fund returns into price pressure and fundamental components, and identified the impact of price chasing on fund flows.
result Funds' self-inflated returns lead to wealth reallocation and market crashes, and can be predicted by fund illiquidity.
Zero-inflated datasets, which have an excess of zero outputs, are commonly encountered in problems such as climate or rare event modelling. Conventional machine learning approaches tend to overestimate the non-zeros leading to poor performance. We propose a novel model family of zero-inflated Gaussian processes (ZiGP) …