arXiv research

Study on Yang-Mills heat flow on $\mathbb{R}^4$ bundles, showing infinite time bubbling.

The paper proves an infinite double bubble theorem in higher dimensions.

Trading bubbles form when traders adapt to price mismatches.

This paper develops Yang-Mills flow on Riemannian manifolds with special holonomy. By analogy with the second-named author's thesis, we find that a supremum bound on a certain curvature component is sufficient to rule out finite-time singularities. Assuming such a bound, we prove that the infinite-time bubbling set is …

As we show using the notion of equilibrium in the theory of infinite sequential games, bubbles and escalations are rational for economic and environmental agents, who believe in an infinite world. This goes against a vision of a self regulating, wise and pacific economy in equilibrium. In other words, in this context, …

Two-cycle GEILA equilibria are OLG equilibria and vice versa, with applications to indeterminacy and bubbles.

Defines speculative bubbles in discrete-time models based on discounted stock price losing mass.

Continuous time analysis of bubble formation in harmonic maps.

We present an interacting-agent model of speculative activity explaining bubbles and crashes in stock markets. We describe stock markets through an infinite-range Ising model to formulate the tendency of traders getting influenced by the investment attitude of other traders. Bubbles and crashes are understood and descr…

In the past decade, Bitcoin as an emerging asset class has gained widespread public attention because of their extraordinary returns in phases of extreme price growth and their unpredictable massive crashes. We apply the log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) confidence indicator as a diagnostic tool for identifyin…

We consider a banking network represented by a system of stochastic differential equations coupled by their drift. We assume a core-periphery structure, and that the banks in the core hold a bubbly asset. The banks in the periphery have not direct access to the bubble, but can take initially advantage from its increase…

Several results on existence and convergence of the Yang-Mills flow in dimension four are given. We show that a singularity modeled on an instanton cannot form within finite time. Given low initial self-dual energy, we then study convergence of the flow at infinite time. If an Uhlenbeck limit is anti-self-dual and has …

Study on optimal bubble riding with price-dependent entry times in a mean field game model.

We propose two rational expectation models of transient financial bubbles with heterogeneous arbitrageurs and positive feedbacks leading to self-reinforcing transient stochastic faster-than-exponential price dynamics. As a result of the nonlinear feedbacks, the termination of a bubble is found to be characterized by a …

Study asset price bubbles in markets with short sales prohibitions and model uncertainty.

Using a recently introduced rational expectation model of bubbles, based on the interplay between stochasticity and positive feedbacks of prices on returns and volatility, we develop a new methodology to test how this model classifies 9 time series that have been previously considered as bubbles ending in crashes. The …

This is the third installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 27 bubbles in 27 different global assets; for 25 of these assets, we present windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We will provide that docum…

We introduce a new diffusion process Xt to describe asset prices within an economic bubble cycle. The main feature of the process, which differs from existing models, is the drift term where a mean-reversion is taken based on an exponential decay of the scaled price. Our study shows the scaling factor on Xt is crucial …

This is the second installment of the Financial Bubble Experiment. Here we provide the digital fingerprint of an electronic document in which we identify 7 bubbles in 7 different global assets; for 4 of these assets, we present windows of dates of the most likely ending time of each bubble. We will provide that documen…

Imitative and contrarian behaviors are the two typical opposite attitudes of investors in stock markets. We introduce a simple model to investigate their interplay in a stock market where agents can take only two states, bullish or bearish. Each bullish (bearish) agent polls m "friends'' and changes her opinion to bear…

This working paper analyzes the gold price dynamics on the basis of methodology developed by Didier Sornette. Our calculations indicate that this dynamics is close to the one of the "bubbles" studied by Sornette and that the most probable timing of the "burst of the gold bubble" is April - June 2011. The obtained resul…

We present a detailed bubble analysis of the Bitcoin to US Dollar price dynamics from January 2012 to February 2018. We introduce a robust automatic peak detection method that classifies price time series into periods of uninterrupted market growth (drawups) and regimes of uninterrupted market decrease (drawdowns). In …

By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the log-periodic power law (LPPL) model has been developed as a flexible tool to detec…

We introduce the concept of "negative bubbles" as the mirror image of standard financial bubbles, in which positive feedback mechanisms may lead to transient accelerating price falls. To model these negative bubbles, we adapt the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles with a hazard rate de…

Study shows price bubbles can exist even with heterogeneous beliefs.

Wave maps can have multiple bubbling solutions at blow-up points.

We present an advance bubble detection methodology based on the Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) confidence indicator for the early causal identification of positive and negative bubbles in the Chinese stock market using the daily data on the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 stock market index from January 2002 thro…

Following our previous investigation of the USA Standard and Poor index anti-bubble that started in August 2000, we analyze thirty eight world stock market indices and identify 21 anti-bubble. An ``anti-bubble'' is defined as a self-fulfilling decreasing price created by positive price-to-price feedbacks feeding overal…

Model optimal liquidation in asset bubbles with varying entry times.

Study analyzes stock market dynamics using Tsallis statistics and GHE, revealing pre-bubble and post-bubble market characteristics.

Study reveals investor behavior in NFT bubbles.

Recent academic work has developed a method to determine, in real time, if a given stock is exhibiting a price bubble. Currently there is speculation in the financial press concerning the existence of a price bubble in the aftermath of the recent IPO of LinkedIn. We analyze stock price tick data from the short lifetime…

Inspired by the question of identifying the start time $τ$ of financial bubbles, we address the calibration of time series in which the inception of the latest regime of interest is unknown. By taking into account the tendency of a given model to overfit data, we introduce the Lagrange regularisation of the normalised …

By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the log-periodic power law model has been developed as a flexible tool to detect bubbl…

A new model detects financial bubbles with high accuracy.

For any closed Riemannian manifold $X$ we prove that large isoperimetric regions in $X\times{\mathbb R}^n$ are of the form $X\times$(Euclidean ball). We prove that if $X$ has non-negative Ricci curvature then the only soap bubbles enclosing a large volume are the products $X\times$(Euclidean sphere). We give an example…

Study predicts NFT bubbles using LPPL model.

The limit of energies of a sequence of harmonic maps as their annular domains approach the boundary of moduli space depends upon the boundary point approached. The infinite energy case is associated with limits of images containing ruled surfaces. The finite energy case yields a limit of images, under a suitable topolo…

Establishing unambiguously the existence of speculative bubbles is an on-going controversy complicated by the need of defining a model of fundamental prices. Here, we present a novel empirical method which bypasses all the difficulties of the previous approaches by monitoring external indicators of an anomalously growi…

Standard bubbles and partitions are stable in various model spaces.

Sharp decay constant for positive scalar curvature metrics on manifolds.

Can you fill R^n with a froth of "soap bubbles" that meet at most n at a time? Not if they have bounded diameter, as follows from Lebesgue's Covering Theorem. We provide some related results and conjectures.

We study asset price bubbles in market models with proportional transaction costs $λ\in (0,1)$ and finite time horizon $T$ in the setting of [49]. By following [28], we define the fundamental value $F$ of a risky asset $S$ as the price of a super-replicating portfolio for a position terminating in one unit of the asset…

Study predicts market bubbles using machine learning and financial news sentiment.

TDA detects financial bubbles through early warning signals.

We develop a methodology for detecting asset bubbles using a neural network. We rely on the theory of local martingales in continuous-time and use a deep network to estimate the diffusion coefficient of the price process more accurately than the current estimator, obtaining an improved detection of bubbles. We show the…

Modeling financial bubbles and crashes with a cubic momentum function.

We show that power-law analyses of financial commentaries from newspaper web-sites can be used to identify stock market bubbles, supplementing traditional volatility analyses. Using a four-year corpus of 17,713 online, finance-related articles (10M+ words) from the Financial Times, the New York Times, and the BBC, we s…