Framework infers coordination strategies from movement data.
problem Inferring individual movement strategies from group data.
method Formalizes Coordination Strategy Inference Problem; provides methodology to infer strategies.
result Framework accurately infers strategies in simulated and real-world datasets.
A hybrid strategy forecasts short-term loads using Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting.
problem Lack of effective short-term load forecasting methods.
method Hybrid strategy integrating four different inference models: tree-based ensemble method Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting (WGTB).
result Demonstrates effectiveness of hybrid strategy on real datasets.
Membership inference determines, given a sample and trained parameters of a machine learning model, whether the sample was part of the training set. In this paper, we derive the optimal strategy for membership inference with a few assumptions on the distribution of the parameters. We show that optimal attacks only depe…
Credit scoring models support loan approval decisions in the financial services industry. Lenders train these models on data from previously granted credit applications, where the borrowers' repayment behavior has been observed. This approach creates sample bias. The scoring model (i.e., classifier) is trained on accep…
Global optimization in Bayesian inference yields little additional benefit.
problem Improving psychometric parameter estimation using global optimization strategies.
method Experimental simulations comparing myopic and global strategies in multiple models.
result Global optimization strategies provide negligible additional utility improvement beyond the immediate next steps.
The paper addresses errors in online selective conformal prediction and proposes new strategies to ensure valid inference.
problem Online selective conformal prediction's exchangeability issues and false coverage rate control problems.
method Evaluation and correction of existing calibration selection strategies, proposing new ones that preserve exchangeability.
result Novel calibration selection strategies ensure both selection-conditional coverage and FCR control.
Functional tensors unify probabilistic programming with automatic differentiation.
problem Designing probabilistic programming systems that can handle diverse inference strategies.
method Introducing functional tensors that capture benefits of tensors and continuous probability distributions.
result Functional tensors enable parallel exact inference for various modeling motifs.
Allocation strategies improve the efficiency of crowdsourcing by decreasing the work needed to complete individual tasks accurately. However, these algorithms introduce bias by preferentially allocating workers onto easy tasks, leading to sets of completed tasks that are no longer representative of all tasks. This bias…
Improves learning of spectral mixture kernels with approximate Bayesian inference.
problem Difficult optimization of large number of SM kernel parameters.
method Approximate Bayesian inference using variational distribution of spectral points and random Fourier features.
result Accelerates convergence and leads to better optimal parameters.
The inference of correlated signal fields with unknown correlation structures is of high scientific and technological relevance, but poses significant conceptual and numerical challenges. To address these, we develop the correlated signal inference (CSI) algorithm within information field theory (IFT) and discuss its n…
An autonomous variational inference algorithm for arbitrary graphical models requires the ability to optimize variational approximations over the space of model parameters as well as over the choice of tractable families used for the variational approximation. In this paper, we present a novel combination of graph part…
Paper tackles SBI under model misspecification, presenting robust strategies.
problem Challenges in SBI under model misspecification.
method Three key strategies: robust summary statistics, generalised Bayesian inference, and error modelling.
result Empirical results show vulnerabilities of SBI and effectiveness of misspecification-robust alternatives.
Bayesian decision theory outlines a rigorous framework for making optimal decisions based on maximizing expected utility over a model posterior. However, practitioners often do not have access to the full posterior and resort to approximate inference strategies. In such cases, taking the eventual decision-making task i…
OPAL optimizes labeling strategy for precise inference from uncertain models.
problem Inference from uncertain machine learning models is brittle.
method OPAL learns a smooth policy to adaptively label data points based on model uncertainty.
result OPAL yields estimators with the lowest variance and achieves nominal coverage in finite samples.
Best-of-Majority improves inference performance in Pass@k settings.
problem Inference in difficult tasks often underperforms with single-shot selection methods.
method Combining majority voting and Best-of-N, Best-of-Majority restricts candidates to high-frequency responses.
result Best-of-Majority achieves minimax optimal regret and outperforms other methods.
Statisticians have made great progress in creating methods that reduce our reliance on parametric assumptions. However this explosion in research has resulted in a breadth of inferential strategies that both create opportunities for more reliable inference as well as complicate the choices that an applied researcher ha…
Proposes efficient Gaussian approximations for non-Gaussian likelihoods.
problem Computational challenges in learning and inference with non-Gaussian likelihoods.
method Variational inference and moment matching in transformed bases.
result Good approximation quality for binary and multiclass classification.
The paper tackles ICU discharge strategies by evaluating optimal stopping scenarios.
problem Optimal stopping in ICU discharge with complex causal inference challenges.
method Generalized g-formula implementation and application to MIMIC-IV dataset.
result Improved ICU discharge strategies demonstrated with the g-formula approach.
Study finds users mostly use recent market and decision information to guess market direction.
problem Limited ability to model and predict human decision-making in stock markets.
method Used networks inference with stochastic block models (SBM) to find most predictive model of unobserved decisions.
result Users mostly use recent information to guess market direction, and their decision-making strategies are analogous to behaviors in other contexts.
Face recognition models can be inferred from student models, posing privacy risks.
problem Privacy threats in transfer learning models for face recognition.
method Membership inference attacks and attribute inference from aggregate-level information.
result Sensitive attributes can be inferred from student models, even with limited auxiliary information.
A new quantization strategy reduces Transformer model size and inference time.
problem Heavy computation load and memory overhead in Transformer models for mobile devices.
method Mixed precision quantization with varying bits per word in embedding blocks.
result 11.8x smaller model size and 3.5x speed up for on-device NMT.
We propose a new data-augmentation strategy for fully Bayesian inference in models with binomial likelihoods. The approach appeals to a new class of Polya-Gamma distributions, which are constructed in detail. A variety of examples are presented to show the versatility of the method, including logistic regression, negat…
Method distills reward and strategies from diverse demonstrators.
problem Reward ambiguity and heterogeneity in human demonstrations.
method Reward network distillation to infer task goal and strategies.
result Better recovery of task and strategy rewards.
New bounds on machine learning data leakage identified.
problem Machine Learning models can leak sensitive information.
method Formalized attack setups, derived universal bounds, studied mutual information.
result Connected attack success rate to generalization gap and mutual information.
Mathematical analysis shows annealing prevents mode collapse in Gaussian mixtures.
problem Mode collapse in variational inference for multimodal distributions.
method Analyzed annealing strategies for Gaussian mixtures, derived formulas, and tested on neural networks.
result Appropriately chosen annealing schemes can robustly prevent mode collapse.
Bayesian inference identifies model parameters from financial data to detect arbitrage opportunities.
problem Identifying model parameters from financial data to detect arbitrage opportunities.
method Bayesian inference approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm.
result Bayesian inference can estimate unknown trend and volatility coefficients from measured data.
Paper proposes Walsh-Hadamard Variational Inference for efficient approximate inference in large models.
problem Over-regularization in variational inference for large models.
method Walsh-Hadamard factorization strategies to reduce parameterization, accelerate computations, and increase posterior expressiveness.
result Efficient approximate inference achieved in over-parameterized models.
This study proposes a framework for identifying profitable trading opportunities based on volatility and causal relationships.
problem Identifying profitable trading opportunities in financial markets.
method A combination of Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), Granger Causality Test (GCT), Peter-Clark Momentary Conditional Independence (PCMCI) test, Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), and K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) for identifying and executing trades.
result The proposed volatility-based trading strategy outperformed a Buy-and-Hold strategy, yielding a total return of 15.38%.
Large-scale Gaussian process inference has long faced practical challenges due to time and space complexity that is superlinear in dataset size. While sparse variational Gaussian process models are capable of learning from large-scale data, standard strategies for sparsifying the model can prevent the approximation of …
GIM learns by analogy to improve reinforcement learning efficiency.
problem Efficient reinforcement learning with limited data.
method GIM infers unknown dynamics from known dynamics based on spectral properties.
result GIM achieves lower sample complexity and computational efficiency.
Testing-by-betting strategies almost surely go bankrupt under null hypotheses.
problem Understanding the behavior of betting strategies under null hypotheses.
method Analyzed the asymptotics of betting strategies under null distributions, focusing on the almost sure divergence of sums.
result Testing-by-betting strategies go bankrupt with probability one under any non-degenerate null distribution.
We develop a more efficient NGD method for structured parameters.
problem Computational challenges in NGD for structured parameter spaces.
method Local-parameter coordinates to simplify Fisher-matrix computations.
result New structured second-order algorithms and learning methods.
The paper connects ABC to GBI, suggesting ABC as a robustification strategy.
problem Approximate Bayesian Computation struggles with tractability in complex simulators.
method Reinterpreting ABC as an implicitly defined error model and suggesting GBI.
result ABC can be seen as a robustification strategy for approximating Bayesian posteriors.
Stochastic variational inference allows for fast posterior inference in complex Bayesian models. However, the algorithm is prone to local optima which can make the quality of the posterior approximation sensitive to the choice of hyperparameters and initialization. We address this problem by replacing the natural gradi…
Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We assume that only a finite number of parameters are of interest and allow the generat…
Improves spatio-temporal forecasting by reducing errors between training and inference.
problem Accumulation of small errors in Seq2Seq models during inference due to different distributions of training and inference phases.
method Curriculum learning based on Temporal Progressive Growing Sampling to replace some ground-truth context with generated predictions.
result Better models long-term dependencies and outperforms baseline approaches on two datasets.
Novel meta-RL strategy improves efficiency in learning novel tasks.
problem Efficiency in learning novel tasks using deep RL.
method Decomposes meta-RL into task-exploration, task-inference, and task-fulfillment; uses deep networks and a task encoder.
result Improves sample efficiency and mitigates meta-overfitting.
We empirically evaluate a stochastic annealing strategy for Bayesian posterior optimization with variational inference. Variational inference is a deterministic approach to approximate posterior inference in Bayesian models in which a typically non-convex objective function is locally optimized over the parameters of t…
Bayesian Federated Inference improves survival model analysis without merging data.
problem Accurately estimating survival model parameters requires sufficient data and events, which is often lacking in practice.
method Bayesian Federated Inference (BFI) for survival models, where local centers perform analyses and combine results.
result Results from BFI are similar to those from merged data analyses, demonstrating excellent performance.
We describe Venture, an interactive virtual machine for probabilistic programming that aims to be sufficiently expressive, extensible, and efficient for general-purpose use. Like Church, probabilistic models and inference problems in Venture are specified via a Turing-complete, higher-order probabilistic language desce…
New approach for adaptive conformal inference using Blackwell's theory.
problem Non-exchangeable environments in sequential conformal inference.
method Reinterpretation of ACI as a game, construction of coverage and efficiency objectives, approachability strategy.
result Algorithm achieves strong theoretical guarantees and practical insights.
The need for new methods to deal with big data is a common theme in most scientific fields, although its definition tends to vary with the context. Statistical ideas are an essential part of this, and as a partial response, a thematic program on statistical inference, learning, and models in big data was held in 2015 i…
Bayesian inference engines improve density estimation accuracy and scalability.
problem Constructing accurate and scalable probability density functions.
method Bayesian inference engines (no-U-turn sampling and expectation propagation) with binning strategy.
result Density estimates have excellent comparative performance and scale well to large sample sizes.
Warm-start strategies speed up GP inference by 19x.
problem Efficient sequential inference in Gaussian processes.
method Three warm-start strategies exploiting smaller linear systems.
result Warm-starting achieves up to 19x speed-up in convergence.
New attacks can infer model training membership using only label predictions, not confidence.
problem Inferring whether a data point was used to train a machine learning model.
method Evaluate model's predicted labels under perturbations to infer membership.
result Label-only attacks perform as well as confidence-based attacks and break defenses that rely on confidence masking.
We develop a general variational inference method that preserves dependency among the latent variables. Our method uses copulas to augment the families of distributions used in mean-field and structured approximations. Copulas model the dependency that is not captured by the original variational distribution, and thus …
This paper offers a simple method for Bayesian regression with unknown transformations.
problem Joint inference of unknown transformations and model parameters in Bayesian regression is computationally inefficient and cumbersome.
method The paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric model via the Bayesian bootstrap to directly target the posterior distribution of the transformation.
result The approach delivers joint posterior consistency and efficient Monte Carlo inference for the transformation and all parameters.
Study reveals model misspecification significantly impacts neural SBI algorithms.
problem Impact of model misspecification on neural SBI algorithms.
method Comprehensive study of neural SBI algorithms under various forms of model misspecification.
result Misspecification profoundly deleterious to performance of neural SBI algorithms.