A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The professional services sector is at a turning point, with some industries showing growth opportunities.
Study uses ML and statistical models to analyze climate impacts of industrial growth.
A general nonlinear logistic equation has been proposed to model long-time saturation in industrial growth. An integral solution of this equation has been derived for any arbitrary degree of nonlinearity. A time scale for the onset of nonlinear saturation in industrial growth can be estimated from an equipartition cond…
In this pedagogical study, carried out by adopting standard mathematical methods of nonlinear dynamics, we have presented some simple analytical models to understand terminal behaviour in industrial growth. This issue has also been addressed from a dynamical systems perspective, with especial emphasis on the concept of…
This paper investigates the statistical properties of within-country GDP and industrial production (IP) growth rate distributions. Many empirical contributions have recently pointed out that cross-section growth rates of firms, industries and countries all follow Laplace distributions. In this work, we test whether als…
About the economic growth the Keynesian theorists defend circular and cumulative processes, benefiting the rich localities and harming the poorest, without external interventions. In these processes the Verdoorn law has an important role. For Verdoorn (1949) the productivity growth rate is endogenous and depends of the…
Groups of firms often achieve a competitive advantage through the formation of geo-industrial clusters. Although many exemplary clusters, such as Hollywood or Silicon Valley, have been frequently studied, systematic approaches to identify and analyze the hierarchical structure of the geo-industrial clusters at the glob…
Generative AI predicts economic activity from corporate transcripts.
How do regions acquire the knowledge they need to diversify their economic activities? How does the migration of workers among firms and industries contribute to the diffusion of that knowledge? Here we measure the industry, occupation, and location-specific knowledge carried by workers from one establishment to the ne…
The Unified Growth Theory is a puzzling collection of myths based on illusions created by hyperbolic distributions. Some of these myths are discussed. The examination of data shows that the three stages of growth (Malthusian Regime, Post-Malthusian Regime and Modern Growth Regime) did not exist and that Industrial Revo…
GenAI offers financial benefits but requires risk management.
Historical economic growth in countries of the former USSR is analysed. It is shown that Unified Growth Theory is contradicted by the data, which were used, but not analysed, during the formulation of this theory. Unified Growth Theory does not explain the mechanism of economic growth. It explains the mechanism of Malt…
We take a closer look at the life and legacy of Micheal Milken. We discuss why Michael Milken, also know as the Junk Bond King, was not just any other King or run-of-the-mill Junk Dealer, but "The Junk Dealer". We find parallels between the three parts to any magic act and what Micheal Milken did, showing that his acco…
Technological improvement is the most important cause of long-term economic growth. We study the effects of technology improvement in the setting of a production network, in which each producer buys input goods and converts them to other goods, selling the product to households or other producers. We show how this netw…
Significant differences in the evolution of firm size distribution for various industries in the United States have been revealed and documented. For theoretical considerations, this finding puts major constraints on the modelling of firm growth. For practical purposes, the observed differences create a solid basis for…
A model is presented of the market dynamics to emphasis the effects of increasing returns to scale, including the description of the born and death of the adaptive producers. The evolution of market structure and its behavior with the technological shocks are discussed. Its dynamics is in good agreement with some empir…
Data describing historical growth of income per capita [Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDP/cap)] for the world economic growth and for the growth in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, former USSR, Africa and Latin America are analysed. They follow closely the linearly-modulated hyperbolic distributions represent…
The paper predicts an Efficient Market Property for the equity market, where stocks, when denominated in units of the growth optimal portfolio (GP), have zero instantaneous expected returns. Well-diversified equity portfolios are shown to approximate the GP, which explains the well-observed good performance of equally …
Paper uses time series transformers to predict investment success.
The growth of business firms is an example of a system of complex interacting units that resembles complex interacting systems in nature such as earthquakes. Remarkably, work in econophysics has provided evidence that the statistical properties of the growth of business firms follow the same sorts of power laws that ch…
The expression "wage transition" refers to the fact that over the past two or three decades in all developed economies wage increases have levelled off. There has been a widening divergence and decoupling between wages on the one hand and GDP per capita on the other hand. Yet, in China wages and GDP per capita climbed …
Study examines how industrial emissions evolve over time in response to various factors.
There has been considerable growth and interest in industrial applications of machine learning (ML) in recent years. ML engineers, as a consequence, are in high demand across the industry, yet improving the efficiency of ML engineers remains a fundamental challenge. Automated machine learning (AutoML) has emerged as a …
Exponentially smoothed RNNs improve industrial forecasting.
There are many industrial situations where rods are used to stir a fluid, or where rods repeatedly stretch a material such as bread dough or taffy. The goal in these applications is to stretch either material lines (in a fluid) or the material itself (for dough or taffy) as rapidly as possible. The growth rate of mater…
Company mergers and acquisitions are often perceived to act as catalysts for corporate growth in free markets systems: it is conventional wisdom that those activities lead to better and more efficient markets. However, the broad adoption of this perception into corporate strategy is prone to result in a less diverse an…
The relationship between the size and the variance of firm growth rates is known to follow an approximate power-law behavior where is the firm size and is an exponent weakly dependent on . Here we show how a model of proportional growth which treats firms as classes compos…
We propose a novel approach and an empirical procedure to test direct contagion of growth rate in a trade credit network of firms. Our hypotheses are that the use of trade credit contributes to contagion (from many customers to a single supplier - "many to one" contagion) and amplification (through their interaction wi…
Firms' collaboration networks can decline but remain resilient.
European steel industry shifts to electric arc furnaces, reducing scrap imports and increasing competition.
Climate change is widely expected to increase weather related damage and the insurance claims that result from it. This will increase insurance premiums, in a way that is independent of a customer's contribution to the causes of climate change. Insurance provides a financial mechanism that mitigates some of the consequ…
Is the large influence that mutual funds assert on the U.S. financial system spread across many funds, or is it is concentrated in only a few? We argue that the dominant economic factor that determines this is market efficiency, which dictates that fund performance is size independent and fund growth is essentially ran…
Myanmar is languishing at the bottom of key international indexes. United Nations considers the country as a structurally weak and vulnerable economy. Yet, from 2011 when Myanmar ended decades of military rule and isolationism and transited towards democracy, its breakneck development has led to many considering the co…
Economic growth is unpredictable unless demand is quantified. We solve this problem by introducing the demand for unpaid spare time and a user quantity named human capacity. It organizes and amplifies spare time required for enjoying affluence like physical capital, the technical infrastructure for production, organize…
A new ride-hailing subsidy system uses deep causal networks to estimate consumer elasticity.
Quantum computing offers energy savings over classical computing.
A bipartite producer-consumer network is constructed to describe the industrial structure. The edges from consumer to producer represent the choices of the consumer for the final products and the degree of producer can represent its market share. So the size distribution of firms can be characterized by producer's degr…
We discuss when and why custom multi-factor risk models are warranted and give source code for computing some risk factors. Pension/mutual funds do not require customization but standardization. However, using standardized risk models in quant trading with much shorter holding horizons is suboptimal: 1) longer horizon …
We calculated the cross correlations between the half-hourly times series of the ten Dow Jones US economic sectors over the period February 2000 to August 2008, the two-year intervals 2002--2003, 2004--2005, 2008--2009, and also over 11 segments within the present financial crisis, to construct minimal spanning trees (…
We collect and analyze the data for working time, life expectancy, and the pair output and infrastructure of industrializing nations. During S-functional recovery from disaster the pair's time shifts yield 25 years for the infrastructure's physical lifetime. At G7 level the per capita outputs converge and the time shif…
The aim of this paper is to present a further contribution to the analysis of absolute convergence (and), associated with the neoclassical theory, and conditional, associated with endogenous growth theory, of the sectoral productivity at regional level. Presenting some empirical evidence of absolute convergence of prod…
Paper proposes MIM-DRCFR to learn disentangled factors for better treatment effect estimation.
How technology affects growth or employment has long been debated. With a hiatus, the debate revived once again in the form of how Information and Communications Technology, as a form of new technology, exerts on productivity and employment. Information and Communications Technology perceived as General Purpose Technol…
Network models assume unrealistic idiosyncratic risk, which can be mitigated by allowing for correlated shocks.
The growth of the exhange-traded fund (ETF) industry has given rise to the trading of options written on ETFs and their leveraged counterparts {(LETFs)}. We study the relationship between the ETF and LETF implied volatility surfaces when the underlying ETF is modeled by a general class of local-stochastic volatility mo…
We study the structure of inter-industry relationships using networks of money flows between industries in 20 national economies. We find these networks vary around a typical structure characterized by a Weibull link weight distribution, exponential industry size distribution, and a common community structure. The comm…
Industry evolution caused by various reasons, among which technology progress driving industry development has been approved, but with the new trend of industry convergence, inter-industry convergence also plays an increasing important role. This paper plans to probe the industry synergetic evolution mechanism based on…
This paper evaluates investment risks in LATAM AI startups using DCF method.