The paper tackles individualized decision-making under unmeasured confounding, providing a novel minimax solution and a paradox.
problem Unmeasured confounding in causal inference leads to biased estimates and affects individualized decision-making.
method The authors establish a formal link between individualized decision-making under partial identification and classical decision theory, providing a minimax solution and a paradox.
result A novel minimax solution for individualized decision-making/policy assignment is provided, and an interesting paradox is drawn.
Machine learning based decision making systems are increasingly affecting humans. An individual can suffer an undesirable outcome under such decision making systems (e.g. denied credit) irrespective of whether the decision is fair or accurate. Individual recourse pertains to the problem of providing an actionable set o…
Improves survival prediction model calibration for better individual decision-making.
problem Survival prediction's marginal and conditional calibration issues.
method Conformal prediction using individual survival probabilities.
result Effective marginal and conditional calibration without compromising discrimination.
Extends expected value framework for cost-sensitive causal decision-making.
problem Optimizing operational decision-making with cost-sensitive causal classification.
method Introduces a cost-sensitive decision boundary based on estimated individual treatment effects, positive outcome probability, and cost parameters.
result Effective in maximizing expected causal profit, outperforming cost-insensitive ranking approach.
Method constructs prediction intervals for time-varying individual treatment effects.
problem Accurately quantify uncertainty of individual treatment effects across multiple decision points.
method Conformal inference techniques for time-varying ITEs with weaker assumptions.
result Guaranteed lower bound for coverage dependent on data non-exchangeability.
Introduces principal fairness for fair decision-making.
problem Discrimination among similarly affected individuals.
method Uses principal stratification from causal inference.
result Explicitly accounts for decision impacts, not just protected attributes.
The paper introduces metrics to rank potential outcomes for better decision-making.
problem Optimal action selection in uncertain situations using causal reasoning.
method Introducing two new metrics: probabilities of potential outcome ranking (PoR) and probability of achieving the best potential outcome (PoB). Establishing identification theorems and deriving bounds for these metrics, and presenting estimation methods.
result The estimators' finite-sample properties and their application to a real-world dataset are demonstrated.
In recent years, automated data-driven decision-making systems have enjoyed a tremendous success in a variety of fields (e.g., to make product recommendations, or to guide the production of entertainment). More recently, these algorithms are increasingly being used to assist socially sensitive decision-making (e.g., to…
Develops a statistical learning framework for personalized asset allocation.
problem Continuous-action decision-making with a large number of characteristics.
method Discretization approach with generalized penalties for penalized regression.
result Improves financial well-being with individualized optimal asset allocation.
Develops methods for personalized treatment decisions in the presence of unmeasured factors.
problem Personalized treatment decisions in the presence of unmeasured confounding.
method Proximal learning approaches to estimate optimal individualized treatment regimes (ITRs).
result Established identification results for different classes of ITRs, improving decision-making value function.
People are rated and ranked, towards algorithmic decision making in an increasing number of applications, typically based on machine learning. Research on how to incorporate fairness into such tasks has prevalently pursued the paradigm of group fairness: giving adequate success rates to specifically protected groups. I…
Information-theoretic bounded rationality describes utility-optimizing decision-makers whose limited information-processing capabilities are formalized by information constraints. One of the consequences of bounded rationality is that resource-limited decision-makers can join together to solve decision-making problems …
This work surveys algorithmic recourse, aiming to clarify definitions and solutions.
problem Providing explanations and recommendations to individuals affected by automated decisions.
method Literature review and unified definitions, formulations, and solutions.
result Unified definitions and solutions for algorithmic recourse.
Study uses FDA to analyze discount functions of different temperaments.
problem Traditional finance models fail to capture individual differences in investment choices.
method Functional Data Analysis (FDA) to investigate temporal discounting behaviors.
result Heterogeneity within each temperament revealed, suggesting diverse investor profiles.
New method to quantify feature contributions to disparity without access to decision-making model.
problem Quantifying feature contributions to disparity when decision-making model is not accessible.
method Use information theory to measure redundant statistical dependency between protected attribute and feature.
result Quantify feature contributions to disparity using information theory.
Specialized hierarchies improve decision-making by partitioning tasks.
problem Division of labor and specialization in hierarchical systems.
method Information-theoretic on-line learning rule for partitioning tasks.
result Enforces specialization and optimal combination of experts.
The paper studies how noisy labels impact decision-making in machine learning.
problem The impact of noisy labels on decision-making in machine learning.
method Introducing a notion of regret, studying standard approaches, and estimating individual-level mistakes.
result Standard approaches can lead to unforeseen mistakes for individuals, revealing the need for anticipation.
Proposes a compensation mechanism for improving individual forecast confidence.
problem Difficult to assess the quality of individual probabilistic forecasts and their utilities.
method Compensation mechanism based on fair bets and online learning.
result The proposed mechanism cannot be exploited and ensures forecasted utility matches actual utility.
Causal ML predicts treatment outcomes, aiding personalized medicine.
problem Predicting individualized treatment effects for personalized medicine.
method Flexible, data-driven methods using causal inference with clinical trial and real-world data.
result Causal ML allows for estimating individualized treatment effects.
New method learns decisions from collective preferences without individual covariates.
problem Making decisions online without individual covariates.
method Collaborative filtering, matrix completion bandit, ε-greedy policy, online gradient descent, inverse propensity weighting.
result Method outperforms benchmarks and reveals new discoveries.
Educational game on crypto investment helps students grasp macroeconomics.
problem Weak connections between microeconomic decision-making and macroeconomic concepts in classroom games.
method Design and study of an educational game on cryptocurrency investment.
result Engages students in understanding macroeconomics through incentivized individual investment decisions.
Wisdom of the crowd, the collective intelligence derived from responses of multiple human or machine individuals to the same questions, can be more accurate than each individual, and improve social decision-making and prediction accuracy. This can also integrate multiple programs or datasets, each as an individual, for…
The influence of additional information on the decision making of agents, who are interacting members of a society, is analyzed within the mathematical framework based on the use of quantum probabilities. The introduction of social interactions, which influence the decisions of individual agents, leads to a generalizat…
In personalised decision making, evidence is required to determine whether an action (treatment) is suitable for an individual. Such evidence can be obtained by modelling treatment effect heterogeneity in subgroups. The existing interpretable modelling methods take a top-down approach to search for subgroups with heter…
New approach models individual vitality for better mortality predictions.
problem Limited ability of existing mortality models to capture individual complexity.
method Developed a four-component framework for individual vitality dynamics.
result Demonstrates improved analytical and practical outcomes in life insurance and lifetime decision-making.
New fairness criterion for risk-sensitive decisions in regulated industries.
problem Ensuring equitable outcomes in risk-sensitive decision-making.
method Marginal fairness for generalized distortion risk measures, two-step decision-making process.
result Ensures fairness in decision-making under risk measures, regardless of protected attributes.
A new meta-learner improves prediction of individualized outcomes in sequential decisions.
problem Predicting individualized outcomes over long horizons in sequential decision-making.
method Developed a novel meta-learner called DRQ-learner with theoretical guarantees of orthogonality and quasi-oracle efficiency.
result DRQ-learner achieves quasi-oracle efficiency, doubly robustness, and Neyman-orthogonality.
The definition of preferences assigned to individuals is a concept that concerns many disciplines, from economics, with the search of an acceptable outcome for an ensemble of individuals, to decision making an analysis of vote systems. We are concerned in the phenomena of good selection and economic fairness. In Arrow'…
Machine learning algorithms are increasingly involved in sensitive decision-making process with adversarial implications on individuals. This paper presents mdfa, an approach that identifies the characteristics of the victims of a classifier's discrimination. We measure discrimination as a violation of multi-differenti…
New method handles uncertainty in causal effect estimation for better decision-making.
problem Handling uncertainty in causal effect estimation, especially in high-dimensional data and covariate shift.
method Integrates uncertainty estimation into neural network methods for individual-level causal estimates.
result Uncertainty-aware methods improve decision-making by alerting when predictions are not reliable.
Optimal treatment regime uses proxy variables to improve decision-making.
problem Insufficient covariates in observational data lead to confounding issues.
method Proximal causal inference framework and outcome/treatment confounding bridges.
result The proposed optimal treatment regime outperforms existing ones.
Randomized predictions ensure fair and accurate individual calibration in machine learning.
problem Systematic bias in typical calibration methods leads to unfair predictions for certain subgroups.
method Randomization of predictions to enforce individual calibration, trading off bias with variance.
result Randomized regression functions are more calibrated for arbitrary subgroups and achieve higher utility.
Proposes a model to estimate effects of multiple related treatments.
problem Estimating effects of many related treatments in observational data.
method Customized ridge regression to reduce noise and MSE.
result Significantly reduces MSE for individual sub-treatments while allowing reconstruction of aggregated treatment effects.
Financial markets provide an ideal frame for studying decision making in crowded environments. Both the amount and accuracy of the data allows to apply tools and concepts coming from physics that studies collective and emergent phenomena or self-organised and highly heterogeneous systems. We analyse the activity of 29,…
A new algorithm reduces communication costs for collaborative decision-making across clients.
problem Collaborative decision-making with sparse rewards and heterogeneous contexts.
method Federated Lasso algorithm for sparse linear contextual bandits.
result Achieves near-optimal regret with logarithmic communication costs.
TCFimt forecasts causal effects of multiple interventions from individual data.
problem Estimating causal effects of temporal multi-interventions from individual data.
method TCFimt uses adversarial tasks in seq2seq framework to alleviate bias and contrastive learning to decouple effects.
result TCFimt outperforms state-of-the-art methods in predicting future outcomes and choosing optimal treatments.
Algorithms are often used to produce decision-making rules that classify or evaluate individuals. When these individuals have incentives to be classified a certain way, they may behave strategically to influence their outcomes. We develop a model for how strategic agents can invest effort in order to change the outcome…
Machine learning can help personalized decision support by learning models to predict individual treatment effects (ITE). This work studies the reliability of prediction-based decision-making in a task of deciding which action a to take for a target unit after observing its covariates x~ and predicted outcom…
Clarifies the various fairness definitions in ML.
problem Addressing fairness in ML with different definitions.
method Analyzes and clarifies the differences between fairness definitions.
result Provides a clearer understanding of fairness definitions in ML.
Batched Neural Bandits reduces policy updates in sequential decision-making.
problem Sequential decision-making with batched policy changes.
method BatchNeuralUCB algorithm combining neural networks and optimism.
result Achieves similar regret as fully sequential version with fewer policy updates.
Develops scenario theory for multi-criteria decision making.
problem Need for robustness assessment with multiple criteria and datasets.
method Collectively treats risks associated with individual criteria for multi-criteria decision problems.
result More accurate robustness certificates and sharper quantification of simultaneous criterion satisfaction.
Quantum mechanics models human perception and decision-making, offering a new approach to understanding social dynamics.
problem Understanding the complex interactions between individuals and groups in social networks.
method Developed a simple computational code based on quantum mechanics principles to model human perception and decision-making.
result Quantum-inspired models can help explain differences in individual and group behavior.
The paper develops deep learning models for personalized treatment rules in survival analysis.
problem Deriving optimal treatment rules for bivariate survival outcomes in randomized trials.
method Adaptive prediction-powered learning using deep neural networks and stochastic policies.
result Maximizes joint survival probability beyond fixed time points (t1,t2). New method minimizes decision errors in large treatment spaces.
problem Improving decision-making in large treatment spaces with biased observational data.
method Loss minimizes classification error of actions in large action space.
result Proves improved decision-making performance in large combinatorial action spaces.
Recent exploration of optimal individualized decision rules (IDRs) for patients in precision medicine has attracted a lot of attention due to the heterogeneous responses of patients to different treatments. In the existing literature of precision medicine, an optimal IDR is defined as a decision function mapping from t…
Proposes a new method for reliable treatment effect interval estimates.
problem Uncertainty quantification in treatment effect estimation.
method Conformal inference for counterfactuals and individual treatment effects.
result Achieves desired coverage with short intervals in various settings.
Examines fairness in ML for health, highlighting its importance and challenges.
problem Ensuring fairness in ML models for health to prevent health disparities.
method Reviews fairness notions in ML for health, including group, individual, and causal-based approaches.
result Discusses the importance and challenges of fairness in health-focused ML applications.
We study notions of fairness in decision-making systems when individuals have diverse preferences over the possible outcomes of the decisions. Our starting point is the seminal work of Dwork et al. which introduced a notion of individual fairness (IF): given a task-specific similarity metric, every pair of individuals …